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Initial Claims Confirm Economic Deterioration: +471k, Miss Expectations By 31k, Previous 446k

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Initial claims come in at 471k, increasing the divergence from consensus which was at 440k. Continuing claims 4,625k vs expectations of 4,610k. Not much to be said: the economy is now openly double dipping in the all important housing and employment sectors. The market, which is now below the 200 DMA will shortly follow.

From Market News:

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment benefits rose 25,000 to 471,000 in the May 15 employment survey week after seasonal adjustment, according to data released by the U.S. Labor Department Thursday morning.

A Labor analyst said that there were no special factors and no states estimated in the current week’s claims data, which was well above the 440,000 level expected in a Market News International survey of economists. Initial claims were revised up slightly to a 446,000 level in the May 8 week from the originally reported 444,000 level and are now unchanged from the May 1 week.

Seasonal adjustment factors expected a drop in unadjusted claims of about 5.7%, which would have been a decline of about 23,000 claims. Unadjusted initial claims actually fell only 0.4%, or 1,819, to a level of 407,940. This is still well below the 540,925 level in the comparable week a year earlier.

Initial claims in the current week were 12,000 above the 459,000 level reported in the April 17 employment survey week.

The initial claims seasonally adjusted 4-week average rose 3,000 to 453,500 in the May 15 week, but remained below the 459,000 level two weeks earlier.

In the May 8 week, continuing claims fell by 40,000 to 4.625 million and were down 113,074 unadjusted. Continuing claims were at
their lowest levels since the March 27 week, when they stood at 4.562 million.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained at 3.6% in the May 8 week, which is well below the 4.8% rate in the comparable week a year earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

The Labor Department said that there were 94,788 less unadjusted Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits claims in the May 1 week, bringing that category to 5,101,246. Extended benefits claims rose by 21,419 to 240,260 not seasonally adjusted.

 


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Thu, 05/20/2010 - 08:38 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

So THIS is what a V-Recovery looks like.  I have always wondered.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 12:52 | Link to Comment BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

They actually meant "V" as in that shitty movie about civil insurrection.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 08:40 | Link to Comment suteibu
suteibu's picture

"Unexpectedly" increase.  Come on...get it right.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 08:50 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

I owe you a beer.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 08:51 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

But not two (dup post).

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 08:53 | Link to Comment suteibu
suteibu's picture

Damn...I was long beer.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 08:40 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

"Unexpected", of course.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 08:53 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Lulz.  Whoocoodanode?

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 08:43 | Link to Comment jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Once people see nothing is going to happen in Greece today, the market will be back in melt up mode.  I just have this sneaky feeling about it.  I would not be surprised to see the market turn green around midday.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 08:48 | Link to Comment pvmuse
pvmuse's picture

Yes, right around midday, when Ben calls JPM, and tells them to step on it with the S&P mini ramp up.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 08:55 | Link to Comment Cursive
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You have been trained well the last 15 months.  I envisioning a rug being pulled out from bulltard feets....

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 08:44 | Link to Comment Jack
Jack's picture

I don't think double-dip is accurate unless you're talking about something specific like the stock market. Things getting worse more slowly does not equal recovery. This has been a recovery-less recovery.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 08:56 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Jack

 

+1  The recovery that never was.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 09:07 | Link to Comment JacksCompleteLa...
JacksCompleteLackOfSuprise's picture

The weekend at Bernies recovery

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 08:46 | Link to Comment Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Ooooooo.  Green shot across the bow! 

 

 

my time is near

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 08:52 | Link to Comment Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Maybe we'll get to see how well the" circuit breakers" work today? Rainbows and Unicorns for EVERYONE!

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 09:02 | Link to Comment Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

Algos: :"This does not compute; illogical outcome to V-shape recovery input. Repeat. This does not compute. Emergency-SEll, Sell, SEll"

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

"Open the pod bay liquidity doors, HAL."

"I'm sorry, Tim, I'm afraid I can't do that."

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 12:13 | Link to Comment itchy166
itchy166's picture

+1

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 09:06 | Link to Comment ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

We need better expecters. These economists aren't working out worth a shit.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 09:09 | Link to Comment suteibu
suteibu's picture

Indeed.  How do they keep their jobs when they are always wrong?

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 09:44 | Link to Comment Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

As the expecters are delusional, my name rarely makes the headlines.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 09:14 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Let's call this what it is:

Obama's Depression.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 09:49 | Link to Comment RobD
RobD's picture

Are you kidding, the evil Boooosh will get the blame for the greatest depression.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 09:21 | Link to Comment litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

The Labor Department said that there were 94,788 less unadjusted Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits claims in the May 1 week, bringing that category to 5,101,246. Extended benefits claims rose by 21,419 to 240,260 not seasonally adjusted.

So somewhere between 95k and 57k people fell off the back end, and became 99ers?

(According to the 60% unemployable after 28 weeks theory, considering how close to end of U/E benefits... expect the most unemployable to still be on the extended benefits, so closer to 97K)

And we can now expect this every week until at least the November elections.

25 weeks and something around 80k off the backend of emergency U/E a week... 1,400,000 to 2,500,000 workers plus their dependents is a huge voting bloc, ....

[EDIT:typos]

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 09:26 | Link to Comment Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

The disconnect with the election results is the most interesting part.  The unemployment report highlights the fact that there is still a great deal of pain being felt out there.  Yet, in most places, the more liberal and "old politics" candidate won.   Ron Paul's son was the only one who had a true "throw the bums out" message to his campaign.  Specter's replacement is straight from the Democratic machine.  I am afraid we may not get a lot of relief from these dismal statistics and the dismal performance of Washington come November. 

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 09:46 | Link to Comment Psquared
Psquared's picture

Morning Joe: "the unexpected increase is due to the number of people now actively looking for jobs because the economy has improved so much."

Spin on ...

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

Is this a double dip, or, a stair case down?

It looks like the Obama Administration's policy of bashing business of any type, ramming through unpopular business stifling social programs such as the health care "reform",supporting organized labor at any cost, and supporting illegal immigrants at any cost, is, well, not a successful economic policy.

 

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
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