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Initial Claims Disappoint Again, Print At 428K On Expectations Of 420K, Prior At 429K
And the same old show and dance persists as initial claims continue confirming that at its core, the US economy is not improving one bit following the 12th consecutive claims pring over 400K. We still expect the June NFP consensus to be cut. The BLS reported that initial claims in the week ended June 25 were 428K, much higher than the expected 420K. Initial claims also missed expectations of 3,690K, printing at 3,702K. And guess what: this too is a drop from the upward revised 3714K, previously 3,697K. Both numbers this week will be revised higher next week, which will bring the rolling average far higher.
There were 9 states with a decline and 6 states with an increase of more than 1,000 claims W/W. The biggest deterioration was in California at 4,393 due to layoffs in the service industry, and New Jersey at +3,274 due to "Layoffs in the transportation, warehousing and services industries due to school closures." In other words, the two most insolvent states continue to be the most insolvent.
The 99 week cliff reappeared again as net 27K people exhausted EUC and Extended Benefits and are no longer funded by Uncle Sam with weekly $400 paychecks.
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Can't wait for the spin. MSM will soon be dredging up economists claiming that 425K is what's needed for sustained growth.
Pretty soon the guys keeping tabs on this will be off the rolls too, no?
That is a valid point. During the last decade, economists considered weekly unemployment claims closer to 325,000 to be a sign of a healthy labor market. Amazing how the goalposts have been moved. The fact is that job growth is anemic, and many of the jobs being created are service jobs with low wages.
Even Lindsay Lohan gets it now:
http://twitter.com/#!/lindsaylohan/statuses/85502735482494976
This may very well be our tipping point!
Maybe Lindsay, Paris and Britney can bail out Greece, no?
Their collective capital, aside from being markedly less than even the next tranche to go to Greece let alone the total unknown bailout cost, must be reserved to pay the lawyers and judges to get them out of their next set of retarded antics.
Even Lindsay is shocked and surprised?
........who else could have seen this coming?
Cnn MOney:
Breaking News Number of people filing initial unemployment claims dips by 1,000 to 428,000 in the latest week, government says
LOL!
I haven't peeked, but I'm sure that sentiment is followed up by some pablum like "...a sign that the jobs recovery is going to take time."
How do these folks print this stuff where the "definitive" dip is less than the adjustment "error" from the prior week?
Danger Will Robinson, danger!
The sum total of mathematical knowledge at CNBC couldn't explain to you what a standard deviation is, so you can save your statistical analysis. EOQ window dressing will not be stopped. Must make bonuses.
The part I find amazing is where they keep finding 430,000 people to fire EVERY week for the last 100 weeks in a row! And they tell us unemployment is 9%. Funny part is people actually do believe it. Greatest depression, whether or not people believe it makes no difference.
That's 43 million lost jobs in just 2 years.
About the same number as those on food stamps.
Ain't the welfare state grand!
The deal is old as time. You pay a prostitute, and they provide a service. Simple.
All about keeping the 401K and pensioners calm as Hindu cows until theyre seized one morning. Cant have 401K holders getting any funny ideas and placing sell orders.
Too late.
we don't need no steenking jobs!
slumpin' our way into the long hot summer
And from CNBC........
Jobless claims fall less than expected, Down 1000 to 428,000
JFC my gut hurts
Almost forgot: Futures positive despite weak jobs picture
Must love the juxtaposition
That way the glass is still half full, ya understand. As long as we keep getting disappointed 'less than expected' we're on our way up!
And they will make every effort to fill that glass of kool-aid to the brim. Of course, they will be topping it off as a 50/50 mix of kool-aid and cyanide. I think I'd rather dehydrate, thanks.
How did claims fall "less than expected" when expectations were at 420,000?
You gotta get into that minus-minus equals plus thingy
Wish I could tell you how they get from A to B. I just copied their headline.
Steve Leisman math.
Why do you even report this stuff anymore. Let me take a wild guess for the day, since all is better now...
Gold down
10yr yield down
dollar flat to up
oil down
stock market UP
News is no longer relevant. You will be assimilated. Risk on...common sense off.
resistance is feudal
You will be ass mutilated.
i am species 8472, i eat borg for brunch.
ISM NY: 52.6 down from 67.9
That's good for +200 today.
It's reflecting Wall Street layoffs, which are just beginning.
Within the report a surprise were the first reports by firms that they are experiencing a shortage of working capital. Shocker since the mantra for 2 years has been "pile of cash on the balance sheet". They might be starting to burn through it
spent it all on stock buy-backs to goose prices
Not to mention Amazon laid of 10,000 sales associates in response to CA sales tax for internet sales.
Those guys are smoking on Hawaiian Islands,
summer vacation.
Bloomberg says that the revision will be sizable, as
Good Catch, thanks for pointing that out
why would anyone assume the revision will be lower than reported? it could be sizably higher......
just saying.
I dont assume anything today. Bottom line is theyre telling everyone exactly whats going on, those who are smart enough to get it have a chance to make it. Those not smart enough will die of starvation or worse in the coming days.
Thats how the elite play the game, they MUST tell you what theyre really doing, and they do tell you all the time. Denial will mean the self-imposed death sentence of millions, if not billions in the coming days.
Just wait until the munis are forced to layoff people due to budget cuts.
TD your analysis has been consistently spot on - you would think that a reputable organization would modify their methodology in order to present their findings more accurately - If the US Government is trying to reduce their spending We the People should consider eliminating those elements that are non-productive
Here comes the spin:
Initial jobless claims for the June 18 week rose 9,000 to 429,000. However, the Labor Department had to estimate results for six states, which is a sizable number, due to what it says were "technology issues" which must mean computer problems. So, we may see a sizeable revision with this coming week's number.
Maybe the number would have been higher than they wanted it to be so they used their "technology card"
Snow not working for an excuse any longer, now the problem was the computer programs. Yea OK.
each time i read "technology issues" from Labor Department
I recall 'George Carlin - Euphemisms'
google it, priceless
alx
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That has been the spin every week for the last 3 months.
The thing is it takes 3 months for a new behavior to become a habit.
Jobless claims above 400K is now officially a habit.
retail are the big winners this week. they can withdraw 3% more money this week than last week.
It's all good.....
If you want a job, go to China. I hear they are so desperate for workers there that they are pulling them out of schools and forcing them into factories. Woo hoo!
I think that's North Korea. Read yesterday that they're shutting down their universities for 10 months, and making the students work on infrastructure and agricultural projects.
Oops, you are correct. My mistake. Although I would not be surprised to hear of the same thing happening in China. Central planning FTW!
"students" = "slaves".
Putting students to work in fields and factories means no chance of riots sprouting at universities.
Computers do not make errors, and Skynet has become self aware, and are building T-1 terminators on evenings and weekends....unless you have a phased plasma rifle in the 40 watt range, youre screwed.
I've got a bunch of light bulbs in the 40 watt range. Will those work? Obama's brain power in the same range as well.
Yes, and since it's one of those oh so wonderful CFL's, even when it comes on it takes about 10 minutes to warm up to full potential power.
Even if it did, I wouldn't count on having them for very long.
Obama's brain power has nothing to do with this. He's doing exactly what the multinational corporations hired him to continue.
Not to worry people... This is transitory (lol!) With the last day of POMO, the PD's have been instructed to buy anything and everything up. They are to go out on a big bang.
But wait! Clinton has a global initiative to create jobs!
He's on it!
In which country?
All eyes on Greece as the US and China sink further into recession. Watch out for the oncoming train.
Thats been the funny part, everyone obsessing over the tiny tempest in a teapot 'Greece' and other tiny microcosms while the Cat5 hurricane swoops in behind us.
OT: According to latest poll, the finnish anti-EU party True Finns are gaining even more support among the finnish population after the elections. Latest rate shows True Finns would be the biggest party with over 23% of votes. They refused to be part of the new government who support all and every bail out and who sign all and every blank paper coming from the dark dungeons of Brussels.
true finns don't eat brussels sprouts
Median pay for chief financial officers of S&P 500 companies surged 19% to $2.9 million last year, as profits and stock valuations rebounded - Dow Jones News
All spin and lies to keep the 401K bathrobe brigades calm as Hindu cows until the morning Bernank has planned to swoop in and seize them all. Now THAT will be a funny day to see, and its almost upon us.
'QE3' will actually be the Treasury absconding with that approx $4 trillion in 'assets' to control itself as it sees fit....OMFG how people can not see this is stupefying to me.
All your 401ks are belong to us!
Too in your face. Look for a plan that gets people to WILLINGLY fork over their retirement. Maybe something like this: Convert your unsafe IRA/401K/etc. to a safe UST account and you'll get a bonus credit equal to half your account. Move over your $100k and get credit for $150! Hurry up, limited time offer! As seen on TV!
Who knows at this point what the bastards are going to do. They might not raise the debt ceiling than confiscate 401Ks under the pretense of another crisis. One thing you can count on, whatever they do won't help the average Joe on the streets.
At the rate we're going, an abysmal Chicago PMI might be good for another 150 points on the Dow.
The what?
If you read in detail six states were entered with estimated numbers due to technical problems. So the whole thing is bull shit. Do you really think the used any reality based estimate? Technically they probably knew which six states were going to be bad and failed to turn the computer on to add their data. IT resources will be in and show them the on button and plug them back in next month.
I predict you will see the first monthly negative Job Print in the month of August.
That should be good enough to pump the DJIA to over 13,000.
From CNBC:
<<< It was the 12th straight week that claims have been above 400,000, a level that is usually associated with a stable labor market. Employment stumbled badly in May, with employers adding just 54,000 jobs—the fewest in eight months. >>>
Since WHEN did 400,000 weekly claims become a level "usually associated with a stable labor market"? The goalposts have been moved.
It makes sense when you consider that an official unemployment rate north of 9% is the new normal.
The actual unemployment rate would appear to be well above 9%. Who knows what to believe these days re. employment statistics.
The Propaganda Ministry is certainly creative, aren't they?
But it looks like Wall Street buys the lie, from the looks of the market this morning.
John Law Lives,
Thank you for making me laugh so much! >400,000 is the 'new stable'...!
DavidC
and the Dow LEAPS out of the gate......aside: FAZ up a tick - interesting
Is NFP on July 8th rather than tomorrow?
Yes. Look for an anemic number on the 8th.
Thanks for the quick answer.
You are welcome.
"Jobless Claims in US Decline, Top Estimates "
the current headline on google finance homepage. wow.
Presumably that's why the Dow has just popped up 70 points or thereabouts...
Can't help feeling 'the market' is no reflection on reality. What's that you say...?
DavidC
Recession:
http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/charts/employment/tax/payroll-tax-growth...
The Amazon/CA and finance-migration-to-Singapore/Dodd-Frank effects are yet to collapse the system.
Last one out, blow out the candle. The lights went out long ago.
Not To Worry
The Wall Street scripted teleprompter will have Obama Bin Lyin' his way out of this one...
Come on guys who what to ruin our Nations B-Day with the "Nasty Truth" the sheeple need to brun shit down and get drunk to celebarate the 4th.
Remeber DUI check points will be in effect. Have a ducky weekend.
All is swell and dont miss that rock en new show the "Voice"
LOL
Seems to be steadily rising each time.