Initial Claims Disappoint Again, Print At 428K On Expectations Of 420K, Prior At 429K

Tyler Durden's picture

And the same old show and dance persists as initial claims continue confirming that at its core, the US economy is not improving one bit following the 12th consecutive claims pring over 400K. We still expect the June NFP consensus to be cut. The BLS reported that initial claims in the week ended June 25 were 428K, much higher than the expected 420K. Initial claims also missed expectations of 3,690K, printing at 3,702K. And guess what: this too is a drop from the upward revised 3714K, previously 3,697K. Both numbers this week will be revised higher next week, which will bring the rolling average far higher.

There were 9 states with a decline and 6 states with an increase of more than 1,000 claims W/W. The biggest deterioration was in California at 4,393 due to layoffs in the service industry, and New Jersey at +3,274 due to "Layoffs in the transportation, warehousing and services industries due to school closures." In other words, the two most insolvent states continue to be the most insolvent.

The 99 week cliff reappeared again as net 27K people exhausted EUC and Extended Benefits and are no longer funded by Uncle Sam with weekly $400 paychecks.

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mayhem_korner's picture

Can't wait for the spin.  MSM will soon be dredging up economists claiming that 425K is what's needed for sustained growth. 

Pretty soon the guys keeping tabs on this will be off the rolls too, no?

John Law Lives's picture

That is a valid point.  During the last decade, economists considered weekly unemployment claims closer to 325,000 to be a sign of a healthy labor market.  Amazing how the goalposts have been moved.  The fact is that job growth is anemic, and many of the jobs being created are service jobs with low wages.

fuu's picture
99 weeks ago today was  08/06/2009
pepperspray's picture

Even Lindsay Lohan gets it now:!/lindsaylohan/statuses/85502735482494976

This may very well be our tipping point!

Caviar Emptor's picture

Maybe Lindsay, Paris and Britney can bail out  Greece, no?

Larry Darrell's picture

Their collective capital, aside from being markedly less than even the next tranche to go to Greece let alone the total unknown bailout cost, must be reserved to pay the lawyers and judges to get them out of their next set of retarded antics.

GetZeeGold's picture


Even Lindsay is shocked and surprised?

........who else could have seen this coming?


digitlman's picture

Cnn MOney:


Breaking News Number of people filing initial unemployment claims dips by 1,000 to 428,000 in the latest week, government says



mayhem_korner's picture

I haven't peeked, but I'm sure that sentiment is followed up by some pablum like "...a sign that the jobs recovery is going to take time."

How do these folks print this stuff where the "definitive" dip is less than the adjustment "error" from the prior week? 

Danger Will Robinson, danger!

Larry Darrell's picture

The sum total of mathematical knowledge at CNBC couldn't explain to you what a standard deviation is, so you can save your statistical analysis.  EOQ window dressing will not be stopped.  Must make bonuses.

SheepDog-One's picture

The part I find amazing is where they keep finding 430,000 people to fire EVERY week for the last 100 weeks in a row! And they tell us unemployment is 9%. Funny part is people actually do believe it. Greatest depression, whether or not people believe it makes no difference.

Hedgetard55's picture

That's 43 million lost jobs in just 2 years.

About the same number as those on food stamps.

Ain't the welfare state grand!


Rodent Freikorps's picture

The deal is old as time. You pay a prostitute, and they provide a service. Simple.

SheepDog-One's picture

All about keeping the 401K and pensioners calm as Hindu cows until theyre seized one morning. Cant have 401K holders getting any funny ideas and placing sell orders.

buzzsaw99's picture

we don't need no steenking jobs!

Caviar Emptor's picture

slumpin' our way into the long hot summer

Larry Darrell's picture

And from CNBC........

Jobless claims fall less than expected, Down 1000 to 428,000

JFC my gut hurts

Almost forgot:  Futures positive despite weak jobs picture

Must love the juxtaposition


Caviar Emptor's picture

That way the glass is still half full, ya understand. As long as we keep getting disappointed 'less than expected' we're on our way up! 

Larry Darrell's picture

And they will make every effort to fill that glass of kool-aid to the brim.  Of course, they will be topping it off as a 50/50 mix of kool-aid and cyanide.  I think I'd rather dehydrate, thanks.

Johnny Lawrence's picture

How did claims fall "less than expected" when expectations were at 420,000?

Caviar Emptor's picture

You gotta get into that minus-minus equals plus thingy

Larry Darrell's picture

Wish I could tell you how they get from A to B.  I just copied their headline.

jtmo3's picture

Why do you even report this stuff anymore. Let me take a wild guess for the day, since all is better now...

Gold down

10yr yield down

dollar flat to up

oil down

stock market UP

News is no longer relevant. You will be assimilated. Risk on...common sense off.

buzzsaw99's picture

i am species 8472, i eat borg for brunch.

Caviar Emptor's picture

ISM NY: 52.6 down from 67.9

Iriestx's picture

That's good for +200 today.

Caviar Emptor's picture

It's reflecting Wall Street layoffs, which are just beginning. 

Within the report a surprise were the first reports by firms that they are experiencing a shortage of working capital. Shocker since the mantra for 2 years has been "pile of cash on the balance sheet". They might be starting to burn through it

cosmictrainwreck's picture

spent it all on stock buy-backs to goose prices

Richardk888's picture

Not to mention Amazon laid of 10,000 sales associates in response to CA sales tax for internet sales.


Greeny's picture

Those guys are smoking on Hawaiian Islands,

summer vacation.

citrine's picture

Bloomberg says that the revision will be sizable, as 

the Labor Department had to estimate results for six states, which is a sizable number, due to what it says were "technology issues" which must mean computer problems.

Stax Edwards's picture

Good Catch, thanks for pointing that out

101 years and counting's picture

why would anyone assume the revision will be lower than reported?  it could be sizably higher......

just saying.


SheepDog-One's picture

I dont assume anything today. Bottom line is theyre telling everyone exactly whats going on, those who are smart enough to get it have a chance to make it. Those not smart enough will die of starvation or worse in the coming days.

Thats how the elite play the game, they MUST tell you what theyre really doing, and they do tell you all the time. Denial will mean the self-imposed death sentence of millions, if not billions in the coming days.

centerline's picture

Just wait until the munis are forced to layoff people due to budget cuts.

willien1derland's picture

TD your analysis has been consistently spot on - you would think that a reputable organization would modify their methodology in order to present their findings more accurately - If the US Government is trying to reduce their spending We the People should consider eliminating those elements that are non-productive

g3h's picture

Here comes the spin:

Initial jobless claims for the June 18 week rose 9,000 to 429,000. However, the Labor Department had to estimate results for six states, which is a sizable number, due to what it says were "technology issues" which must mean computer problems. So, we may see a sizeable revision with this coming week's number.

trampstamp's picture

Maybe the number would have been higher than they wanted it to be so they used their "technology card"

SheepDog-One's picture

Snow not working for an excuse any longer, now the problem was the computer programs. Yea OK.

alexwest's picture

each time i read "technology issues" from Labor Department
I recall 'George Carlin - Euphemisms'

google it, priceless


lizzy36's picture

That has been the spin every week for the last 3 months.

The thing is it takes 3 months for a new behavior to become a habit.

Jobless claims above 400K is now officially a habit.

101 years and counting's picture

retail are the big winners this week.  they can withdraw 3% more money this week than last week.


chinaguy's picture
  • German prelim retail sales for May -2.8% m/m, +2.2% y/y,  demonstrably weaker than median forecasts of +0.5%, +2.3% respectively
  • French May consumer spending -0.8% m/m, demonstrably weaker than median forecast of +0.9%
  • German June s.a jobless -8k to 2.967 mln.  Weaker than median forecast of -17k. Unemployment steady at 7.0%, as expected.

It's all good.....

Silver Dreamer's picture

If you want a job, go to China.  I hear they are so desperate for workers there that they are pulling them out of schools and forcing them into factories.  Woo hoo!

Johnny Lawrence's picture

I think that's North Korea.  Read yesterday that they're shutting down their universities for 10 months, and making the students work on infrastructure and agricultural projects.