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Initial Claims Drop 22K To 391K, On Expectations Of 405K, Durable Goods Collapse

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Initial Claims, which were obviously revised higher from 410K to 413K, dropped well below expectations, printing at 391K, on expectations of 405K.  With claims continuing to hug the 400K line, this means that unfortunately the economy is not creating nearly enough jobs: as a reminder per the CBO, the US needs to create over 100K jobs a month just to stay in line with population growth. Continuing claims dropped from an (upward) revised 3935K to 3790K, as more and more people hit the 6 month continuing benefits cliff. They also are hitting the end of their 99 week extension period: those on extended benefits dropped by -111,087. That said, with California claims data partially estimated, and all of Massachusetts, Hawaii and Oklahoma data based entirely on the wind, this data has the credibility of an NAR report. And while the employment picture was better than expected, the capital goods data was a total disaster: January US Capital Goods orders non-defense ex. aircraft plunged by -6.9% M/M on expectation of just a -1.0% drop (Prev. 1.4% Rev. 4.3%). And just excluding Transportation, durable goods collapsed by 3.6% on expectations of a 0.5% increase. Time for those downward GDP revisions.

Full initial claims report.

Full durable goods report.

 

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Thu, 02/24/2011 - 09:42 | 992439 Godot
Godot's picture

I thought it was 200K?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 09:42 | 992440 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

No bailout for the people.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 11:26 | 992926 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

No pity for the masses.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 09:47 | 992460 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

Dont worry, with gas going to hit $4 within a week, people will feel more confident and start opening their wallets. 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:08 | 992520 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

That is a true statement and the Univ of Mich Consumer Confidence will support that next week.

 

(don't know why you got junked, I thought your sarcasm was funny)

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:48 | 992694 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

tru dat...DOW prints a big green..all is well...go back to work

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 11:18 | 992876 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

BTFD, what is wrong with you all!!!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 09:48 | 992461 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

how long before 99's become 199's?

 

no jobs,no benefits eventually equals no peace

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:45 | 993984 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

how long before 99's become 199's?

Already a 121'er here.  Will reach 199 weeks in mid-August 2012, which I hope does not happen.

no jobs,no benefits eventually equals no peace

Or bureaucrats that will have no problem with making it nigh impossible to not hire them, as a bid for peace.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 09:48 | 992462 ageofreason
ageofreason's picture

WOOHOOO!

 

Party like it is 1978!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 09:50 | 992473 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

tonite i'm gonna party like its 1929....

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:07 | 992516 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yeah, well I'm partying like its 476!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 11:24 | 992884 poor fella
poor fella's picture

BYOT - You supply the wine and mead?

Toga! Toga! Toga!

and btw - You need any work done around the house?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 11:30 | 992963 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Party like it's 1859.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 09:49 | 992470 Quintus
Quintus's picture

And, inevitably, the prior week's figure was revised higher from 410k to 413k. The BLS must surely be the world's top producer of bogus and (transparently) manipulated data.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 09:50 | 992472 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Estimating is so much more....er....convenient than counting hard numbers. It's for the best. Really, it is.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 09:51 | 992475 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

how can 'we' business people plan anything when the numbers are all fantasy.

If the government and these ' pundant economists' would stop making up stuff, and just let the real numbers take it on the chin, then maybe...just maybe, business could get out of the 'I don't know what to do' trap.

Right now we buy only what we must have, and can't even consider hiring.

The TRUTH could set us free.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 09:54 | 992487 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

how can 'we' business people plan anything when the numbers are all fantasy.

Once the decision was made to mark every piece of information to fantasy, truth became the enemy and anyone who demands truth a terrorist.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:30 | 992608 smithcreek
smithcreek's picture

I remember a couple years back the media reported we needed to see the first time unemployment claims drop to about 250k to see job creation.  Since then the number slowly went up to 300k, then 350.  This morning (on Fox) for the first time in my recollection the talking head reported that a number "under 400k" indicated job growth.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:45 | 992674 redpill
redpill's picture

New normal. We have always been at war with Eastasia.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:38 | 993949 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

Right now we buy only what we must have, and can't even consider hiring.

2 years straight, I'd think that uncertainty gets priced in.  That is, enough to stop contributions by business to the U-3 with layoffs, U-6 with the continual wtf'ery of not hiring.

 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 09:52 | 992478 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

All the shit msm outlets say durables are up! But fail to mention the ex trannies.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 09:51 | 992479 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Running out of people to lay off? Another +100,000 fell off the 99er wagon.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 11:35 | 993002 Bob
Bob's picture

Bingo. 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 09:56 | 992491 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

don't worry, all is good, the durable goods orders increased on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Bloomberg. Blame it on snow again?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:07 | 992518 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I saw that too.  Looks like even bloomberg getting more kool-aid rations.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 09:56 | 992492 fuu
fuu's picture

99 weeks ago was 4/9/2009.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:31 | 993927 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

Which is about the same time layoffs started to slow down.

 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:00 | 992501 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

Remember folks, there are no unemployed people in the USSA...its amazing what 21 years and one letter change does. I think I'll hunt down some old soviet news papers and see if I can find the same BS

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:03 | 992507 Captain_Howdy
Captain_Howdy's picture

I'm taking my dinero out of State Street: From BB today: “The manufacturing sector continues to be a main driver of the economy,” said John Herrmann, a senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Global Markets LLC in Boston. “We see a more moderate period of growth” for factories in coming months, he said.".....

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:05 | 992514 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Goldman sees danger in spending cuts.  Amazing!  I suppose the US should keep spending its way out of this mess...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41753958

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:11 | 992524 Captain_Howdy
Captain_Howdy's picture

Yeah, let's just keep printing our way forward, exporting inflation to EM and spread even more political instability in MENA.....

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:12 | 992526 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

As others have said, MSM outlets including Marketwatch, are shitting Green Shoots, reporting durable goods were up 2.7%.

All is great.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:15 | 992527 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

..

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:11 | 992528 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Opening green!!! Woohoo, I love these unmanipulated free capital markets.  It really makes me feel confident for my future, and the future of the human race. 

http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DaJEvmS_dhks&sa=U&ei=YmdmTbeSG4SglAf9nJ3_AQ&ved=0CBcQtwIwAQ&usg=AFQjCNF6rrW8o_WbLIkvox5yPOE3mmFz-g

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:57 | 992529 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

With oil at $120 to $150 a barrel, gasoline at $4.00 to $5.00 a gallon, the real unemployment rate at 20%+, the foreclosure rate skyrocketing again, record deficit spending, and the lowest labor participation rate since during the midst of the Great Depression, this all ends well.

All the lies and propaganda will fill in the lost sales and economic activity, and smooth things over.

No problems here.

 

Oh, and high wage jobs are being decimated, too:

Higher-Paying Jobs Lost - NYTimes.com
Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:08 | 993842 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

With oil at $120 to $150 a barrel, gasoline at $4.00 to $5.00 a gallon, the real unemployment rate at 20%+, the foreclosure rate skyrocketing again, record deficit spending, and the lowest labor participation rate since during the midst of the Great Depression, this all ends well.

Another WPA II - except that it covers every sort of industry, not just construction?

 

 

 

Oh, and high wage jobs are being decimated, too:

That started in 2003, and never really stopped since. Nothing like fraud to help take jobs out of the developed world..

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:15 | 992545 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

I hope everyone knows that the numbers are based on estimates from statistical modelling.

Please do not tell them that we are in the information age and that they could pay a fourteen year old from bangladesh fifty bucks to develop a more modern way of tabulating the numbers.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:04 | 993828 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

Which is then followed by someone in the US who gives out the real number.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:21 | 992564 Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

to be revised to a greater loss of how many more jobs?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:27 | 992596 highwaytoserfdom
highwaytoserfdom's picture

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.6 percent during the week ending Feb. 12, unchanged from the prior week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.3 ...      This is huge 0.7%  another way of looking at the numbers is the 111,0000 coming off extended Benefits in one month.   I won't go into the whole issue of participation rate but readers here understand. It is sickening for the believers of problem recognition before solution attempts. The numbers are an indication of the utter failure of TARP X.0 or QE X.0.

"On the road from the City of Skepticism, I had to pass through the Valley of Ambiguity."

Adam Smith

 


 

 

 

 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:32 | 992617 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

Who's cares about durables anymore? Our economy creates debt instruments, sells them, and then we spend the "money". A damn clever system we've created and other than some negative Nellies spouting doom, what could possible go wrong?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:39 | 992651 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

   ...seems that the release of weekly jobless claims is gradually becoming a matter of National Security, and that only positive numbers reflecting a sturdier economy will be tolerated.....just in case regular americans can not stand the truth !!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:46 | 992679 redpill
redpill's picture

Well we can't let the terrorists win!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 10:56 | 992691 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture
Jan. durable goods orders up 2.7% - MarketWatch

See? Everything is great. There is no manipulation of the data to try to boost, or at least keep from falling as fast and hard, consumer confidence and the the illusion that things are recovering.

 

No manipulation at all...

Oh, and the MSM isn't literally directly in on the scam, as a knowing participant. Bank on that. You have big money and big politics both pressing their pool of reporters to go the extra mile now.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 11:10 | 992823 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

In more Green Shoots, Recovery Land, All Is Well World:

02-24 10:01: US New Home Sales (Jan) M/M 284K vs. Exp. 305K (Prev. 329K, Rev. to 325K), lowest since December 1967
Thu, 02/24/2011 - 11:40 | 993020 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Well, the good news is Obama is talking with his Jobs Council today.

The leading topics will be taxes, free-trade, gay marriage, and healthcare - so we should expect a turn around with the greatest minds tackling the issue. Sure hope Geethner can make it - his opinion and laser-like focus is most valued in these flaccid times.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 11:58 | 993149 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Same shit, different day.    Forge ahead:  Buy gold/silver.    Think I'll go back to the lair for a quickie and a nap.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 14:03 | 993824 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

Claims are dropping since the original set of 99'ers(aka long term unemployed) are now well past the U-3.  They're more likely to be part of what was once the U-7, the long-term discouraged. 

 

 

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