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Initial Claims Drop From 388K To 368K, Beat Expectations Of 395K, Lowest Since May 2008

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The BLS has announced a surprising drop in initial claims, which plunged from a downward revised 388K to 368K, on expectations of 395K. This was the lowest number since May of 2008. "In the week ending Feb. 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 368,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average was 388,500, a decrease of 12,750 from the previous week's revised average of 401,250. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending Feb. 19, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate of 3.1 percent." The non-seasonally adjusted number came at 351K, a number which if contained means that the so called slack in the economy is evaporating, and that the inflationary picture is far worse than the Chairman expects. These numbers further conform to rumors for a blowout NFP tomorrow, spread yesterday, which says that based on Birth-Death adjustments, the NFP could be well over 300,000. In other news, continuing claims hit 3,774K on expectations of 3,815K, compared to 3,833K previously, and those added to EUC and extended claims were roughly 55K.

Summary from the BLS:

 

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Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:40 | 1014571 sulfur
sulfur's picture

finally a reason to BTFD

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:45 | 1014589 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Really why? Because theres not many left to fire?

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 10:22 | 1014632 Bob
Bob's picture

Exactly.  And with the transfer of jobs to part-time and likewise low paying intermittent temp jobs--not to mention contractual 1099 rather than W2 employee work--as people become ever more financially distressed they will simply fall out of the eligibility pool over time.  

New claims should continue to fall as destruction of the real economy ripens. 

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 12:35 | 1015213 Rainman
Rainman's picture

....and the 2/26 week includes the President's Day holiday when all gubermint processing centers were shut down. Now let's move along.  

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:42 | 1014572 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

When the food stamp usage starts declining, then I'll believe the job numbers.  Buy silver and the dip in equities.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:43 | 1014579 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Crossed the 44 million mark for December. It's not lack of jobs...but lack of quality wage jobs.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 10:16 | 1014645 Bob
Bob's picture

Not only lack of decent wages, but full-time jobs--working full-time even at minimum wage produces income that exceeds food stamp guidelines in most states . . . and provides only a pittance (think $20-30 per month) in the remainder. 

Try the various online "food stamp calculators" for yourself if you doubt this.  Plug in a monthly income of $1376 ($8/hour * 40 hrs/week * 4.3 weeks/month) and see what you get. 

Now think about what that means.  Food stamp useage may be the least of it.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 12:38 | 1015227 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

EIC likely picks up a substantial portion of the rest...  food stamps aren't the only handout...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 08:43 | 1017968 Bob
Bob's picture

National average EIC check is $293 per week.  That's $1260 per month.  With no dependents and $700 rent, in Michigan that would get you $2 per month in Food Stamps--enough to count in the stats, but not much of a handout. 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:58 | 1018423 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Who the hell is going to rent a place for $700/mo on $1260/mo income?  That doesn't make any sense...  I'm not saying you'll have much/any discretionary income...  but, you should be able to squeeze it enough to get by.  Here in Arkansas, you can get by on that without much problem...  and very easily if you get a roommate or two.  You can score a 2 bedroom apartment for $400-450 easy.  Or, alternatively, many house payments would be in the $400-450/mo range for an ~$80kish house...  which is what has kept the bid under all of them here... 

Obviously no one is getting on welfare to get rich...  but, whether being on welfare or being part of the working poor, you can have your needs met.  I'm not sure what else society is expected to do...  Clearly, a flatter income distribution would be preferred...  (or at least dislodge the top ~1%)...  but, stealing things from them carries its own problems...  like, consistency for example.  I guess what I'm saying is that I fail to understand what cause it is you're trying to champion.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:41 | 1014576 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

wow.  back to May, 2008 levels!!! 

wasn't that about 6 months into the depression and the month when Bush was sending out $1200 tax rebates to every family?  just checking.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 10:00 | 1014629 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

If the B(L)S continues putting out surprise numbers like this, perhaps TD may need to start looking for a new job....

 

;)

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:43 | 1014577 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Bad economic news - market either is flat or rallies

Good economic news - market rallies

Isn't a euphoric economic outlook already "priced in?"

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 15:50 | 1016094 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Since when did a sane market move on rounding errors?

Never mind.   I think I answered my own question.

Operative word being "sane".

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:44 | 1014582 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Wow, a classic, old school BLS metals raid, with added pressure from stupid rumors about a magical end to unrest in the middle east.

I think I might just BTFD.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:53 | 1014603 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Should the dip be bought today or tomorrow?

PM hammering time!

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:43 | 1014584 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Running out of people to fire.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:43 | 1014588 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

Gov't issued data and stats are a farce.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:47 | 1014591 bb5
bb5's picture

futures look like someone knew the numbers before the announcement

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:49 | 1014594 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well since S&P 666, all market gains have been made pre market open.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 11:14 | 1014836 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

by the way...

remember yesterday when i announced a raid had been launched on Silver by virtue of a sudden 10 cent drop out of nowhere??? and the smart ass remark u made in response to that analysis??? just letting u know man, u r very funny at times and i do admire ur comments from time to time, but being a smart ass for smart ass sake reduces u to the level of the troll...all respect due...

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/another-globex-raid.html

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/a-conspiracy-with-a-silv...

 

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 10:03 | 1014634 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Under normal market conditions, one could predict the outcome. In this rigged, faux market, there is only one direction for it to go under the direction of Dr. Deficit -- UP.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:51 | 1014593 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

In the mean time the Dollar is looking very sick. Dxy 76.45

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:53 | 1014601 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Almost time for the Bernank to drag out the MISSION ACCOMPLISHED banner.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:50 | 1014597 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Claims were collected last week, NFP is data sampled from the 1st week of Febuary. The sample periods of these two items are unrelated to one another.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:53 | 1014602 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

Does this put a bullet in QE3?

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:55 | 1014606 docj
docj's picture

Nope!  This means "We must stay the coarse", and all that.  After all, didn't you hear Benron yesterday puke something along the lines that the piddly spending cuts the Rewhimplicans agreed to will destroy something like 200K jobs?

DAMN THE INFLATION!! FULL PRINTING AHEAD!!!

Or something like that.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:53 | 1014604 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

I love being creative!  In fact, did you know you can shape clay in to anything you want it to look like?

Don't know why that pops into my mind when looking at BLS data...sorry for my obvious topic digression.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:56 | 1014608 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Futures gave back about 30 points.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:58 | 1014623 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

No mention of Snow.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 10:07 | 1014644 Jessica6
Jessica6's picture

4-day work week.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 09:59 | 1014627 sabra1
sabra1's picture

claims came in lower only because february hath 28 days!

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 10:11 | 1014651 Brick
Brick's picture

What happened on Febraury 21st. Let me guess it was a bnak holiday so nobody could file a claim. So you get a bit of a backlog of claims which may boost the number next week. All of these reports are a bit noisy. Despite that persons claiming regular state benefit was up 10,466. Its not a bad report, its just not really making a dent on unemployment.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 10:11 | 1014652 Cocomaan
Cocomaan's picture

Must have been the snow.

Wait, no... well, I'm sure there's an excuse here somewhere.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 10:32 | 1014711 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Yeh like I really believe these numbers.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 10:33 | 1014718 Shock and Aweful
Shock and Aweful's picture

Ok....ok...ok....

 

Show of hands....

 

Who belives this shit?

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 10:35 | 1014720 Shock and Aweful
Shock and Aweful's picture

Other than the MO-MO pump-market of course?

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 10:37 | 1014728 sabra1
sabra1's picture

excuse me, i thought it was only 368,000 people who had jobs!

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 11:02 | 1014807 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Using up your UE eligibility is not the same thing as getting a job.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 11:41 | 1014942 Gimp
Gimp's picture

I believe everything I am told..

Utopian society has been achieved...finally

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 13:19 | 1015402 crosey
crosey's picture

By 2012, BO (et.al.) will have been "starved" out of any re-election possibility.  During his 4 years, Main Street will have cut off all of his oxygen, while banks took all of our money.

What a coup...what a setup.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 20:47 | 1028114 lsjcma
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