Initial Claims Jump To 397K On Expectations Of 376K, Prior Revised From 368K To 371K

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Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:37 | 1036176 HelluvaEngineer
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Nah, Bloomberg says as long as we're below 400k we're fine.  Even though the revision will be well above that, the 3k diff is a critical signal to BTFD.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 10:45 | 1036396 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Well, what surprise. I wonder if CNBS will report the revision since last week came in above expectations and they were all over that! The propaganda from MSM is alarming and disturbing.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:39 | 1036178 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Weekly NSA improving, but long term continues to degrade. I thought the trade balance report very interesting since China claimed exports decreased and imports increased, yet the US report showed the opposite. Guess we will have to wait for Feb and March to make the call.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:39 | 1036179 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

WTF!!! We are into recovery now.  Paging Schmailes, paging Schmailes......

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 10:34 | 1036367 Chris Jusset
Chris Jusset's picture

Oh wait ... Do you mean that this "recovery" has been a mirage?  A smoke screen?  A pack of lies propagated by endless deficit spending and endless money printing?

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 10:50 | 1036415 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

This is very disturbing and alarming because if they can't tell us the truth then what should we believe? As you said the "recovery" is nothing more than a smoke screen:

the "recovery" that they want you to believe you see (but not feel) is not the sustainable organic growth an economy needs to walk on its own; rather, any magical growth you see is an illusion. It is a byproduct of monetary stimulation to the max -- we're in uncharted waters now.

Simply amazing but true.

Seems many people see through the smoke. Is it time for some more SMOKE?!



Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:13 | 1036481 Chris Jusset
Chris Jusset's picture

Now there's no turning back from the govt's lies and fraud. Once the sheeple realize that the Titanic is sinking and that there's no way to save it, then it's game over.  The ruse must continue at any cost -- whether via massive money printing or record-breaking deficit spending or flat-out deception.  So the govt has no choice but to pile on layer upon layer of smoke and mirrors.


It's sad ... but the govt is now in too deep to reverse course.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 13:19 | 1036862 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

It's not too late for Glass-Steagall

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:40 | 1036180 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

School holidays!   Wow.  Really?  I mean, really?   Do they have no shame? 

What's next.   Weekend?  Evening?  Lunchtime? 

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:41 | 1036184 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

My personal favorite is "The sun was in my eyes."  That's a very good one for the Spring season.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:49 | 1036211 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

just waint untill "the belly ake" pandemic hits in full force...


Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:43 | 1036187 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

This summer they're going to blame, "the warm sunny weather has caused a higher than normal amount to apply of UE benifits".

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:47 | 1036201 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

"The rolling blackouts encouraged the unemployed to travel to the air conditioned gov't buildings"

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:43 | 1036192 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

the school holidays excuse should be good for the rest of this month and then Easter kicks in, these random events sure are tough to predict

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:45 | 1036197 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

can we believe the BLS? general ZH consensus is a negative answer.

there are 3 types of lies:

big lies , small lies and BLS reports..

can't use this data as it is fantasy wrapped in political agenda, surrounded by intent.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:47 | 1036205 6 String
6 String's picture

Bernake is going to show his muscles soon. Everyone knows it: Pimco, Fairfax, Berkshire, and most importantly JP Morgan. Why? Because Congress is kicking the Bernak in the face along with just about EVERYONE else nowadays....

He's gonna stop the QE's at QE II and it's not to test the real markets and economy, he already knows the outcome will be a bad one, but to kick everyone right  back in the nuts.

JP Morgan is upping their silver short position--AGAIN. And, at, north of 35 an ounce! Some are saying this is deperation, wrong. Blythe and her gang are the first ones to KNOW, 100% sure, QE II will end will no subsequent QE's initially.

You see, as Congress is starting to take a whip to the Bernak, grill him on economic history lessons, gets tarred and feathered by the likes of Ron Paul, and hears Warren Buffettt (after that pitiful thank you note in the WSJ) say we didn't need QE II, along with PIMCO trying to get out of dodge....

Well....draw your onw conclusions. Silver will hit 20 an ounce by Sept.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:50 | 1036214 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

to many things in flux, silver at 20 an ounce or 200 an ounce take your pick

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:57 | 1036231 6 String
6 String's picture

Not in flux, we will see deflation kick in by late July or August for certain, even Oil will come down by September. Things will start to unravel, silver will get nailed and the dollar gets bid and JP Morgan puts the screws on....

I'll bet right now if you started to looke at GS and JPM's books, they're starting to gear their prop desks and shadow HFT's to do a quick 180, short EVERYTHING.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:24 | 1036523 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Very astute. With such distortions in the market forces, who in hell can predict anything like the price of Ag+.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:54 | 1036227 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

6 string, play away, interesting perspective.

Ben would like to do as you say, but and it's a big would collapse the FRN and send interest rates much higher..he would then have no control and the SHTF moment is here...

who would be to blame: none other than the would be the end.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 10:03 | 1036255 6 String
6 String's picture

I disagree because everyone's now saying we didn't need QE II, even Buffett. So.....he's gonna fold his hand, let the chips fall where they fall.

You see, some say he is petrified of what's gonna happen when QE II ends. He's not. He knows the shit will hit the fan. That, in his rather rudimentary analysis, will be an AHA! moment to the rest of the world with a "see, imagine had I not done QE II" moment.

In some perverse way, as idiotic as congress and the public and Buffett and et al are, he will not come out looking so bad under this plan.


Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:13 | 1036476 Bob
Bob's picture

Quite possible.  Much the same playbook as the WI scenario.  Maybe the top is nearly in. 

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 10:05 | 1036265 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Interesting take, however if The Bernak doesnt continue to have Timmy run the printing press then the $hattner storm will come in the form of a long hot summer where unemployment runs out, Sandwich Artist jobs wont buy a tank of gas, and the only energy 40% of the American people will have access to will be the buildings that will be burning in every major urban area. I dont think the Honorable Bernak will allow that on his own soil -- only other nations (see exporting inflation and hot money). This can is getting kicked down the road until a new administration takes the orifice office in 2012. PIMCO is cash heavy because someone probably didn't include them in the pow wow where they tip off the insiders and rest of the ponzi syndicate.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 10:15 | 1036310 6 String
6 String's picture

I disagree with this too. Bernak knows we're fucked without debt monetization, that much he knows. He's just gonna get his AHA! moment, then the next round....

Pimco has been frontrunning every QE and Fed action. Gross has tipped his hand in many interviews on his inside information window with brazen entertainment..

Nope. Pimco knows. And they know cash, as bad as an investment it is, will provide the firepower during the next meltdown. Tactical Allocation should look like this:

33% cash, 33% gold, 33% short russell 2000 by the end of April or sooner.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 10:23 | 1036338 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

I like the allocation of your projected portfolio - by rule of Silver to Gold pricing ratio, Silver would automatically go up as soon as Gold jettisoned with such a position though, thats why Silver is such a B!tchin' investment. Seriously though, I do agree the deflationary forces are going to start to ramp up like a BEHMEOUTH here in late Spring and early Summer and cause the price of ordinary items to plummet with the exception of value storers like PM's.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:47 | 1036613 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

Would Bernanke really stop when his employment mandate is not accomplished?


Would a president ask him to resign for the good of the country?

Would a Pug prez keep him on if the economy tanks hard as a result of no Qe ponzi?


Does Bernanke want to take that chance -- to be shown the door in disgrace after seeing that his life long beliefs FAILED.


Does a sitting prez wish a full out collapse heading into an election?


Would the "prudent" course be to continue support until after the elections as we wouldn't want to be accused of playing politics right at the doorstep of the elections?



Thu, 03/10/2011 - 10:19 | 1036323 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

+1 Well Written Sir.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 10:13 | 1036300 fuu
fuu's picture

yeah we saw this article posted earlier in the week. Most of us decided that silver at $20 would be the perfect DTFB.

Fri, 03/11/2011 - 02:16 | 1039741 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Show his muscles? He's been showing his 'muscles' ever since he started this gig. His central premise is that he needs to inundate the economy with fiat money, to create a recovery. It hasn't worked, and it's not because he hasn't been given lots of leeway.

If he gives up on quantitative easing, that will be the end of his muscles...his credibility (such as it is, already) will be zero, as he will have forsaken his entire raison-d'etre.

I'm not denying that deflation is the irresistable force he's trying to fight with QE, but this coyote is so far past the cliff edge that any deflation is going to be short-lived before causing outright currency collapse. And at that point, you won't be getting silver for ANY amount of paper fiat money.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:49 | 1036209 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Why doesn't the BLS just start every report with, "But honey I really love you." It would at least sweeten us up for the lies that are about to come...

Seriously, school holidays made me apply for benefits. Since the kids were home with me instead of getting government, education, I decided to take them up to the unemployment office with me. I figured their third grade education could help me in filing the forms.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:54 | 1036224 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Sell my gold and silver. I think not.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:24 | 1036527 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

But the price is falling...sell it to me. Never mind that a lot of the selling is probably due to people needing to hit margin requirements on all those purchases of NFLX and AAPL.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:54 | 1036226 bigking12345
bigking12345's picture

all the rats jumping off the govt motors, but with all the govt cheese in their pockets .

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:56 | 1036240 dcb
dcb's picture

not enough QE (LOL)

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:58 | 1036241 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Uncle sam selling assets to pay bills?..............

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 10:07 | 1036274 max2205
max2205's picture

Two steps forward, one step back?....

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 10:07 | 1036275 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

You guys know it is all due to the weather, don't you?


So don't be too negative and BTFD!!

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 10:12 | 1036291 fuu
fuu's picture

Umm don't we use Seasonal Adjustments to smooth for things like holidays, short months, and weather?

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:00 | 1036444 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

School holidays?  What are they talking about, Presidents Day?  We homeschool, so maybe I'm just unaware of some massive pre-Spring Break in February.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:29 | 1036539 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Saw this posted on - HERE - yesterday (but I forgot by whom):

But if you look deeper into the numbers, as John Williams does at, you don’t see the turnaround picture.  In fact, just the opposite is going on.  In his latest report, Williams estimates the government is routinely overstating job growth by “230,000 jobs” a month.  Using simple math, 192,000 created jobs (according to BLS) subtracted from 230,000 overstated jobs gives you an actual net loss of 38,000 jobs.  I called Williams to check my analysis, and he told me it is not that simple because the government’s estimations are “the worst in modern economic history.” Williams says unemployment numbers are “openly misleading” and virtually “worthless.”

In an interview yesterday from his San Francisco office, Williams told me when it comes to calculating unemployment numbers, the BLS is “flying blind.” He admitted, “It is hard to put an exact number on the actual job losses last month, but we likely lost jobs—not gained them.” He added, “The job losses could be as high as 30,000 for last month.”

This recession is the deepest and longest in modern history and the worst economy since the Great Depression.  Williams told me the reason job figures are so far off is modern BLS calculations have never been tested in this kind of severe downturn.  One reason the unemployment numbers are so misleading is the Birth-Death Model—meaning the birth and death of companies, not people.  In simple terms, the Birth Death Model overestimates jobs that are created by startup companies and often does not subtract jobs when companies go out of business.  So, what the government is giving us are giant distortions in employment and unemployment.  According to Williams, unemployment is not trending down, but the economy sure is.

According to, unemployment is 22.1% if calculated the way BLS did it before 1994.  True unemployment and under-employment has been stuck above 22% for months. contends that before this so-called Great Recession is over, it will go as high as 35%.  By then, we won’t be calling this the Great Recession but the Greatest Depression.


Unemployment Rate: Flying Blind: March 9, 2011.
Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:31 | 1036742 Triple A
Triple A's picture

happy days are here again. yayyyyy

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