Initial Claims Miss Consensus, Jump Higher To 465K From Upward Revised (Of Course) 453K

Tyler Durden's picture

Initial claims not only missed consensus by 15K, jumping by 13K to 465K, but the previous number was of course revised higher from 450K to 453K. And a far bigger revision was in the continuin claims number, where the previous print was pushed higher from 4,485K to 4,537K. The current weekly number of 4,489K missed expectations of 4,473K nonetheless. Once again the BLS' endless "downward" revisions to prior economic data continue to misrepresent the economic at T-0 with impunity. But who cares about truth when patently wrong headlines is all that matters to the binary pirates. The only "good" news: EUC and Extended claims recipients jumped by over 200K in the past week, somewhat countering the prior week's plunge by over half a million as ever more claimants exhaust their full 99 weeks of various Tier benefits.

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MiningJunkie's picture

So BUY BUY BUY because bad news is good news and may the presses be always filled with ink.

EscapeKey's picture

McDonalds hiked their dividend.

Thucydides's picture

Good news is good news, bad news is better. (I'm Ben Bernanke and I fully support this statement.)

pan-the-ist's picture

It's almost October.

midtowng's picture

How could they miss the continuing claims number by so much? Aren't they continually tracking those people? It should have been the easiest number to get right.

Silverhog's picture

Can't have a market crash before November. File this news under Lady Gaga.

TheGreatPonzi's picture

Don't worry, I can hear the printing presses heating up. Go Bernie, go!

Samsonov's picture

I'm not saying that times are good out there, but the unemployment claims numbers exaggerate the situation.  Word is out that unemployment claims are not getting scrutinized too much, so naturally this number will continue to rise.  Until there is a counterbalancing number such as what percentage of claims were rejected, take it with a grain.

EscapeKey's picture

Right, so ignoring that figures in 90% of cases underestimate the problem, we shouldn't really worry too much because THESE figures are probably better than the initial estimate?


Samsonov's picture

"We shouldn't really worry too much?"  Those are not my words, and it is not my point.  Great job on setting up and knocking down a strawman, however.

Vergeltung's picture

right. :\

the real numbers are far worse. ACTUAL unemployment is near 15-20% depending upon region.


Samsonov's picture

This is amazing.  I thought I headed off any misconstruing of my comment by stating flatly and right up front that I wasn't saying times were good.  My point, simplified for the reading-challenged, addressed the data itself and what it means.

I must conclude the ZeroHedge comment board is not the place for me.  Adios.

Chump's picture

No need to leave dude.  Just reexamine your data.  See below.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Dude, this is fight club, not a powder puff derby. There are many people here, including myself, who have strong opinions and a tendency to be triggered by a comment and not fully read it before responding. Shame on us.

I can appreciate not liking it when you're misconstrued, but that's a common occurrence around here. Grow a thicker skin and welcome to the party. We want and need thinkers here to offset the shouters and trolls.

Samsonov's picture

You're right...thicker skin is required.

Village Idiot's picture

"Dude, this is fight club,..."


Dude, since when did cog dis start using the word, dude?  And a refreshing bit of self examination in one of your posts, above. You have been known to overreact to perceived criticism from time to time (I can relate).  Admitting to it, which you have done on more than one occasion, reminds me that you are just being you.  Warts and all.  Have a pleasant day, CD.

Joeman34's picture

People love to criticize simply for the sake of criticizing on this site.  Sadly, most times it's obvious what the original author is saying [and it should, therefore, be obvious to the person replying], but they twist the intent and criticize anyway.  My guess is it's just a bunch of pseudo-intellectual egomaniacs trying to justify their feelings of self-importance. 


Stick around and continue to provide insightful commentary.  You will, no doubt, be attacked because that's what people do on this site - especially those that never post an original thought in the first place.  But the astute among us recognize these antisycophants for what they truly are...

fuu's picture

"I'm not saying that times are good out there, but the unemployment claims numbers exaggerate the situation.  Word is out that unemployment claims are not getting scrutinized too much, so naturally this number will continue to rise."

You didn't really offer up any information to support this statement.

The BLS numbers are more impacted by agenda than any potential initial claims fraud. In my opinion anyway.


TeamAmerica's picture

They say that the HAL9000 series is perfect and incapable of error, but your comments suggest an inreconcilable conflict in your higher logic algorithms causing erratic behavior.    If "unemployment claims are not getting scrutinized too much" why would the percentage of rejected claims be a useful "counterbalancing number"?

Please reboot, then open the pod bay doors, HAL.

Chump's picture

The reason I take the unemployment numbers with a grain of salt is because they underestimate the situation by ignoring such a huge number of...unemployed people.  Your point - that the official numbers exaggerate the situation - is just flat out wrong.  The opposite is true.


midtowng's picture

That makes no sense at all. Where did you get the impression that people want to lose their jobs? Fox News?

1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

I've said it all along, once the number of 99'ers reaches say a couple of million no longer getting a check look out.... "When people have nothing left to loose, they LOOSE it"  (Celente)

Chump's picture

Agreed 100%.  The entire country is just one big tinder box ready to go up in flames.  That's why I think Mad Max is not only possible, but quite probable.  Starvation > Rule of Law, period, full stop.

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

with all the big sh*ts, or is that shots ,leaving Obuma's, Reichstag ..just think of the impact  they add to UE numbers??

Seems the, in the know, are running from this disaster called Hope and Chains (sorry Change)Government. (inside reports are the One's Birth certificate will be released by MI6 or GDU agents before november)

Impeachment begins in 2011.

sorry for this off topic hijack ignore it and lets all just get along

Bill Lumbergh's picture

This simply means more people will have time to visit their local Apple store and buy more products ensuring Apple stock reaches $800 by end of year.

Sudden Debt's picture


They should all buy Photoshop CS 5 and do some funny stuff with their old holiday pictures.


They can off course upload their newly edited pictures onto their 2 month OLD Iphone and share it with friends they only seem to have on facebook and twitter!

John McCloy's picture

Ther are going to photoshop presents into their pictures since Santa is gonna be a litte light this year.

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

They will photoshop their cardboard box into a McMansion with hummer in driveway.

docj's picture

Just arrived in my email (yeah, I'm a 6-Flags New England season pass holder)


Lowest Price in Six Flags New England's History!

Yeah, things are going so totally awesome out there that a popular theme park is offering their lowest prices ever ($50 per person) for season passes.  Seems that when people are having trouble paying for, you know, food they don't seem to have as much money to spend on theme parks.  Who knew?

ziggy59's picture

will they give a refund if they are out of business come spring? - just asking

docj's picture

Heh - almost certainly not.  Still a better investment than Fraud Street though, methinks.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Didn't that company already declare bankruptcy?

docj's picture

Yep.  They never closed, though.

What a country.

Sudden Debt's picture

reminds me of that movie Office Space.

They actually fired all the people but forgot the send out the memo and because of a glitch in accountancy their paychecks are still being paid :)

Cruel Aid's picture

That's like two trips to the movies, couple of days worth of wine, or a couple of cases of beer. They do well in times like these.

Edit: Right, beer never goes out of business. Good pt.

ziggy59's picture

will they give a refund if they are out of business come spring? - just asking

MarketTruth's picture

So what trick will they play to get money into consumers hands in some effort to spur Christmas/Hanukkah sales? Giving money away is one thing, getting consumers to spend it is another.

-Michelle-'s picture

They'll send out stimulus checks "good at these fine retailers!"

docj's picture

Not checks - gift cards.

From Uncle Sugar, with love - now SPEND YOU SERFS!!

Sudden Debt's picture

So higher unemployment is bullish or Bearish?

I seem to have that one wrong every month...

MarketTruth's picture

CNBC spin would be higher UE is green shoots better than expected because it means manufacturers and retailer are getting more efficient by elimination overhead costs.

Cruel Aid's picture

It is because, this time it really is the bottom. It's gotta be.

Well it might be.

ziggy59's picture

they didnt revise as much as they thought they would have to, so we should see a 20 point climb today, no?

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Considering we broke through 1130 before this news, I kinda doubt it.  I imagine the big boys are gonna ride this sucker back down now (were already short yesterday).

firstdivision's picture

Some of us went short after that spike up after FOMC notes.  Same as last time they released the notes.