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Initial Claims Miss Consensus, Jump Higher To 465K From Upward Revised (Of Course) 453K

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Initial claims not only missed consensus by 15K, jumping by 13K to 465K, but the previous number was of course revised higher from 450K to 453K. And a far bigger revision was in the continuin claims number, where the previous print was pushed higher from 4,485K to 4,537K. The current weekly number of 4,489K missed expectations of 4,473K nonetheless. Once again the BLS' endless "downward" revisions to prior economic data continue to misrepresent the economic at T-0 with impunity. But who cares about truth when patently wrong headlines is all that matters to the binary pirates. The only "good" news: EUC and Extended claims recipients jumped by over 200K in the past week, somewhat countering the prior week's plunge by over half a million as ever more claimants exhaust their full 99 weeks of various Tier benefits.

 


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Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:40 | Link to Comment MiningJunkie
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So BUY BUY BUY because bad news is good news and may the presses be always filled with ink.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:51 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

McDonalds hiked their dividend.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:57 | Link to Comment Thucydides
Thucydides's picture

Good news is good news, bad news is better. (I'm Ben Bernanke and I fully support this statement.)

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:42 | Link to Comment pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

It's almost October.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 14:10 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

How could they miss the continuing claims number by so much? Aren't they continually tracking those people? It should have been the easiest number to get right.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:42 | Link to Comment Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Can't have a market crash before November. File this news under Lady Gaga.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:42 | Link to Comment TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

Don't worry, I can hear the printing presses heating up. Go Bernie, go!

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:46 | Link to Comment Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

I'm not saying that times are good out there, but the unemployment claims numbers exaggerate the situation.  Word is out that unemployment claims are not getting scrutinized too much, so naturally this number will continue to rise.  Until there is a counterbalancing number such as what percentage of claims were rejected, take it with a grain.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:50 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Right, so ignoring that figures in 90% of cases underestimate the problem, we shouldn't really worry too much because THESE figures are probably better than the initial estimate?

 

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:13 | Link to Comment Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

"We shouldn't really worry too much?"  Those are not my words, and it is not my point.  Great job on setting up and knocking down a strawman, however.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:02 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Bwahahahah.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:22 | Link to Comment Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

right. :\

the real numbers are far worse. ACTUAL unemployment is near 15-20% depending upon region.

please.........

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:41 | Link to Comment Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

This is amazing.  I thought I headed off any misconstruing of my comment by stating flatly and right up front that I wasn't saying times were good.  My point, simplified for the reading-challenged, addressed the data itself and what it means.

I must conclude the ZeroHedge comment board is not the place for me.  Adios.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:50 | Link to Comment Chump
Chump's picture

No need to leave dude.  Just reexamine your data.  See below.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:51 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Dude, this is fight club, not a powder puff derby. There are many people here, including myself, who have strong opinions and a tendency to be triggered by a comment and not fully read it before responding. Shame on us.

I can appreciate not liking it when you're misconstrued, but that's a common occurrence around here. Grow a thicker skin and welcome to the party. We want and need thinkers here to offset the shouters and trolls.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:58 | Link to Comment Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

You're right...thicker skin is required.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 12:40 | Link to Comment Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

"Dude, this is fight club,..."

 

Dude, since when did cog dis start using the word, dude?  And a refreshing bit of self examination in one of your posts, above. You have been known to overreact to perceived criticism from time to time (I can relate).  Admitting to it, which you have done on more than one occasion, reminds me that you are just being you.  Warts and all.  Have a pleasant day, CD.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Joeman34
Joeman34's picture

People love to criticize simply for the sake of criticizing on this site.  Sadly, most times it's obvious what the original author is saying [and it should, therefore, be obvious to the person replying], but they twist the intent and criticize anyway.  My guess is it's just a bunch of pseudo-intellectual egomaniacs trying to justify their feelings of self-importance. 

 

Stick around and continue to provide insightful commentary.  You will, no doubt, be attacked because that's what people do on this site - especially those that never post an original thought in the first place.  But the astute among us recognize these antisycophants for what they truly are...

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 10:12 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

"I'm not saying that times are good out there, but the unemployment claims numbers exaggerate the situation.  Word is out that unemployment claims are not getting scrutinized too much, so naturally this number will continue to rise."

You didn't really offer up any information to support this statement.

The BLS numbers are more impacted by agenda than any potential initial claims fraud. In my opinion anyway.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/visualizing-propaganda-error-term-behind-bureau-labor-statistics

 

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:38 | Link to Comment TeamAmerica
TeamAmerica's picture

They say that the HAL9000 series is perfect and incapable of error, but your comments suggest an inreconcilable conflict in your higher logic algorithms causing erratic behavior.    If "unemployment claims are not getting scrutinized too much" why would the percentage of rejected claims be a useful "counterbalancing number"?

Please reboot, then open the pod bay doors, HAL.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:46 | Link to Comment Chump
Chump's picture

The reason I take the unemployment numbers with a grain of salt is because they underestimate the situation by ignoring such a huge number of...unemployed people.  Your point - that the official numbers exaggerate the situation - is just flat out wrong.  The opposite is true.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

 

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 14:12 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

That makes no sense at all. Where did you get the impression that people want to lose their jobs? Fox News?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:43 | Link to Comment 99er
99er's picture

Chart: NQ

Anyone up for cliff diving?

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/09/nq_23.html

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:31 | Link to Comment 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

I've said it all along, once the number of 99'ers reaches say a couple of million no longer getting a check look out.... "When people have nothing left to loose, they LOOSE it"  (Celente)

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 10:13 | Link to Comment Chump
Chump's picture

Agreed 100%.  The entire country is just one big tinder box ready to go up in flames.  That's why I think Mad Max is not only possible, but quite probable.  Starvation > Rule of Law, period, full stop.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:44 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

with all the big sh*ts, or is that shots ,leaving Obuma's, Reichstag ..just think of the impact  they add to UE numbers??

Seems the, in the know, are running from this disaster called Hope and Chains (sorry Change)Government. (inside reports are the One's Birth certificate will be released by MI6 or GDU agents before november)

Impeachment begins in 2011.

sorry for this off topic hijack ignore it and lets all just get along

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:46 | Link to Comment The Franchise
The Franchise's picture

Icanhazjob?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:23 | Link to Comment Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

lol

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:47 | Link to Comment Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

This simply means more people will have time to visit their local Apple store and buy more products ensuring Apple stock reaches $800 by end of year.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:54 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

NO NO NO!!

They should all buy Photoshop CS 5 and do some funny stuff with their old holiday pictures.

 

They can off course upload their newly edited pictures onto their 2 month OLD Iphone and share it with friends they only seem to have on facebook and twitter!

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:09 | Link to Comment John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Ther are going to photoshop presents into their pictures since Santa is gonna be a litte light this year.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:14 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

They will photoshop their cardboard box into a McMansion with hummer in driveway.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:52 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Just arrived in my email (yeah, I'm a 6-Flags New England season pass holder)

HURRY & BUY YOUR 2011 SEASON PASS!!

Lowest Price in Six Flags New England's History!

Yeah, things are going so totally awesome out there that a popular theme park is offering their lowest prices ever ($50 per person) for season passes.  Seems that when people are having trouble paying for, you know, food they don't seem to have as much money to spend on theme parks.  Who knew?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:54 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

will they give a refund if they are out of business come spring? - just asking

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:59 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Heh - almost certainly not.  Still a better investment than Fraud Street though, methinks.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:54 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Didn't that company already declare bankruptcy?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:58 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Yep.  They never closed, though.

What a country.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

reminds me of that movie Office Space.

They actually fired all the people but forgot the send out the memo and because of a glitch in accountancy their paychecks are still being paid :)

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

That's like two trips to the movies, couple of days worth of wine, or a couple of cases of beer. They do well in times like these.

Edit: Right, beer never goes out of business. Good pt.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:38 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

will they give a refund if they are out of business come spring? - just asking

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:51 | Link to Comment MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

So what trick will they play to get money into consumers hands in some effort to spur Christmas/Hanukkah sales? Giving money away is one thing, getting consumers to spend it is another.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:04 | Link to Comment -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

They'll send out stimulus checks "good at these fine retailers!"

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:13 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Not checks - gift cards.

From Uncle Sugar, with love - now SPEND YOU SERFS!!

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:51 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

So higher unemployment is bullish or Bearish?

I seem to have that one wrong every month...

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:08 | Link to Comment MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

CNBC spin would be higher UE is green shoots better than expected because it means manufacturers and retailer are getting more efficient by elimination overhead costs.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:10 | Link to Comment Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

It is because, this time it really is the bottom. It's gotta be.

Well it might be.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:52 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

they didnt revise as much as they thought they would have to, so we should see a 20 point climb today, no?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:55 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Considering we broke through 1130 before this news, I kinda doubt it.  I imagine the big boys are gonna ride this sucker back down now (were already short yesterday).

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:37 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Some of us went short after that spike up after FOMC notes.  Same as last time they released the notes. 

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:55 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Welcome to Fall Recovery to be followed shortly by the Winter of Our Discontent.

Remember back in April when Biden predicated: U.S. economy would be adding up to 500,000 jobs each month "some time in the next couple of months.".

I love when nothing goes according to plan.

Hard to believe consumers have NO confidence.

 

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:56 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

FYI Baltic Dry aggregate is still descending.  Must be all those holiday orders.....http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:57 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

They can't even manipulate the numbers right anymore, what a bunch of losers

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:10 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I think they just don't bother anymore because nobody really cares anymore.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:59 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Shadowstats still higher. Helicopter Ben starting engines....

I'm in Vegas right now. Ya'll hurry.

It's so slow here the hookers are all offering deep discounts right now -- they keep asking me if I want a half and half. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 11:21 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Tell 'em you want the Subic Bay rates.  Fuckie-Suckie two dollah!

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:03 | Link to Comment John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

We should be seeing food price inflation with wheat soaring. I myself am seeing kickups in prices in the supermarket and retailers will begin marking up prices in since Uncle Sam is footing the bill in order to increase their margins. Good thing we do not count this in the CPI Lord Ben. I love the Fed excuse " Food and energy prices are highly volatile to be counted in CPI". Funny because a 1 oz. Hershey bar was a nickel in 1920 and in 1965.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:20 | Link to Comment Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

This is total BULLSHIT! They revised the previous continuing claims number from 4,485K to 4,537K?! So the new number of 4489 looks like a reduction in claims when it is really an increase?! Total FUCKING BULLSHIT!

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:26 | Link to Comment Josephine29
Josephine29's picture

One day they will revise a number down after all everyone can make a mistake.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:38 | Link to Comment 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

How long can we keep loosing this many job's. I mean @ some point it has to slow down right?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:42 | Link to Comment Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

Yeah. I know that firing Americans and hiring Chinese and Indians boosts corporate profits, but don't these CEOs want nice areas to drive through with their fancy cars? I guess it boosts their egos more to push through their way through angry mobs.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 12:37 | Link to Comment ATTILA THE WIMP
ATTILA THE WIMP's picture

Here's how the Brazilionaires of Brazil avoid driving their beemers through mobs of rioting peasants, helicopters.

http://www.kontinent.se/slideshow.php?story=89

and

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A42332-2002May31

Sometimes the peasants score against the robotroopers.

http://momento24.com/en/2009/10/17/brazil-helicopter-shot-down-killed-two-policemen/

We're going down the same road. First we'll be a Brazil with snow and then a Yugoslavia with nukes. For my book predicting same (Civil War Two) link to

http://www.amfirstbooks.com/

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:46 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

AMZN already up, AAPL about to do the same.  They are going to flog that horse as long as they can.  The tech echo bubble is the only thing holding up the market.  How far can it go?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:52 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The market is deeply oversold

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:57 | Link to Comment Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

That's a good one! I just shot coffee through my nose! Dry humor.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 10:16 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Nah, all the money is on the sidelines just waiting for a chance at that guaranteed-to-be-hugely-oversubscribed GM PO (I refuse to call it an IPO).

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 11:38 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Haha. Thats a valid point...however i suppose this time its 'initial' all over again because its has 60% gov backing:)

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 10:24 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Good reporting from ZH as ususal, but this is only important for the delta.  Underemployment, much harder to measure, must be 50 percent or more.  For decades, one had to go to Belgium to find cab drivers with Ph Ds.  Now, not so much.

Jobs, in some policy wonk sense, can be replaced, but that is NOT the problem.  When someone loses a good job now, he will probably replace it with a couple of part-time minimum wage jobs or rat shit restaurant work.  "Jobs" are declining, but living standards are in free fall. 

No one in the working class neighborhood I grew up in was as insecure as the young and restless are now.  Where is the statistic for "too poor to own a dog"?

Now tell me again what a rich country this is.

Sat, 09/25/2010 - 23:02 | Link to Comment CL1
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