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Initial Claims Miss Consensus, Jump Higher To 465K From Upward Revised (Of Course) 453K

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Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:40 | 599480 MiningJunkie
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So BUY BUY BUY because bad news is good news and may the presses be always filled with ink.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:51 | 599498 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

McDonalds hiked their dividend.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:57 | 599509 Thucydides
Thucydides's picture

Good news is good news, bad news is better. (I'm Ben Bernanke and I fully support this statement.)

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:42 | 599484 pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

It's almost October.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 14:10 | 600417 midtowng
midtowng's picture

How could they miss the continuing claims number by so much? Aren't they continually tracking those people? It should have been the easiest number to get right.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:42 | 599485 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Can't have a market crash before November. File this news under Lady Gaga.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:42 | 599486 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

Don't worry, I can hear the printing presses heating up. Go Bernie, go!

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:46 | 599488 Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

I'm not saying that times are good out there, but the unemployment claims numbers exaggerate the situation.  Word is out that unemployment claims are not getting scrutinized too much, so naturally this number will continue to rise.  Until there is a counterbalancing number such as what percentage of claims were rejected, take it with a grain.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:50 | 599495 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Right, so ignoring that figures in 90% of cases underestimate the problem, we shouldn't really worry too much because THESE figures are probably better than the initial estimate?

 

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:13 | 599536 Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

"We shouldn't really worry too much?"  Those are not my words, and it is not my point.  Great job on setting up and knocking down a strawman, however.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:02 | 599520 fuu
fuu's picture

Bwahahahah.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:22 | 599554 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

right. :\

the real numbers are far worse. ACTUAL unemployment is near 15-20% depending upon region.

please.........

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:41 | 599599 Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

This is amazing.  I thought I headed off any misconstruing of my comment by stating flatly and right up front that I wasn't saying times were good.  My point, simplified for the reading-challenged, addressed the data itself and what it means.

I must conclude the ZeroHedge comment board is not the place for me.  Adios.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:50 | 599623 Chump
Chump's picture

No need to leave dude.  Just reexamine your data.  See below.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:51 | 599626 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Dude, this is fight club, not a powder puff derby. There are many people here, including myself, who have strong opinions and a tendency to be triggered by a comment and not fully read it before responding. Shame on us.

I can appreciate not liking it when you're misconstrued, but that's a common occurrence around here. Grow a thicker skin and welcome to the party. We want and need thinkers here to offset the shouters and trolls.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:58 | 599648 Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

You're right...thicker skin is required.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 12:40 | 599706 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

"Dude, this is fight club,..."

 

Dude, since when did cog dis start using the word, dude?  And a refreshing bit of self examination in one of your posts, above. You have been known to overreact to perceived criticism from time to time (I can relate).  Admitting to it, which you have done on more than one occasion, reminds me that you are just being you.  Warts and all.  Have a pleasant day, CD.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 10:09 | 599682 Joeman34
Joeman34's picture

People love to criticize simply for the sake of criticizing on this site.  Sadly, most times it's obvious what the original author is saying [and it should, therefore, be obvious to the person replying], but they twist the intent and criticize anyway.  My guess is it's just a bunch of pseudo-intellectual egomaniacs trying to justify their feelings of self-importance. 

 

Stick around and continue to provide insightful commentary.  You will, no doubt, be attacked because that's what people do on this site - especially those that never post an original thought in the first place.  But the astute among us recognize these antisycophants for what they truly are...

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 10:20 | 599710 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 10:12 | 599694 fuu
fuu's picture

"I'm not saying that times are good out there, but the unemployment claims numbers exaggerate the situation.  Word is out that unemployment claims are not getting scrutinized too much, so naturally this number will continue to rise."

You didn't really offer up any information to support this statement.

The BLS numbers are more impacted by agenda than any potential initial claims fraud. In my opinion anyway.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/visualizing-propaganda-error-term-behind-bureau-labor-statistics

 

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:38 | 599596 TeamAmerica
TeamAmerica's picture

They say that the HAL9000 series is perfect and incapable of error, but your comments suggest an inreconcilable conflict in your higher logic algorithms causing erratic behavior.    If "unemployment claims are not getting scrutinized too much" why would the percentage of rejected claims be a useful "counterbalancing number"?

Please reboot, then open the pod bay doors, HAL.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:46 | 599614 Chump
Chump's picture

The reason I take the unemployment numbers with a grain of salt is because they underestimate the situation by ignoring such a huge number of...unemployed people.  Your point - that the official numbers exaggerate the situation - is just flat out wrong.  The opposite is true.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

 

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 14:12 | 600427 midtowng
midtowng's picture

That makes no sense at all. Where did you get the impression that people want to lose their jobs? Fox News?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:43 | 599489 99er
99er's picture

Chart: NQ

Anyone up for cliff diving?

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/09/nq_23.html

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:31 | 599578 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

I've said it all along, once the number of 99'ers reaches say a couple of million no longer getting a check look out.... "When people have nothing left to loose, they LOOSE it"  (Celente)

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 10:13 | 599696 Chump
Chump's picture

Agreed 100%.  The entire country is just one big tinder box ready to go up in flames.  That's why I think Mad Max is not only possible, but quite probable.  Starvation > Rule of Law, period, full stop.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:44 | 599490 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

with all the big sh*ts, or is that shots ,leaving Obuma's, Reichstag ..just think of the impact  they add to UE numbers??

Seems the, in the know, are running from this disaster called Hope and Chains (sorry Change)Government. (inside reports are the One's Birth certificate will be released by MI6 or GDU agents before november)

Impeachment begins in 2011.

sorry for this off topic hijack ignore it and lets all just get along

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:46 | 599491 The Franchise
The Franchise's picture

Icanhazjob?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:23 | 599558 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

lol

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:47 | 599494 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

This simply means more people will have time to visit their local Apple store and buy more products ensuring Apple stock reaches $800 by end of year.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:54 | 599502 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

NO NO NO!!

They should all buy Photoshop CS 5 and do some funny stuff with their old holiday pictures.

 

They can off course upload their newly edited pictures onto their 2 month OLD Iphone and share it with friends they only seem to have on facebook and twitter!

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:09 | 599530 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Ther are going to photoshop presents into their pictures since Santa is gonna be a litte light this year.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:14 | 599539 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

They will photoshop their cardboard box into a McMansion with hummer in driveway.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:52 | 599496 docj
docj's picture

Just arrived in my email (yeah, I'm a 6-Flags New England season pass holder)

HURRY & BUY YOUR 2011 SEASON PASS!!

Lowest Price in Six Flags New England's History!

Yeah, things are going so totally awesome out there that a popular theme park is offering their lowest prices ever ($50 per person) for season passes.  Seems that when people are having trouble paying for, you know, food they don't seem to have as much money to spend on theme parks.  Who knew?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:54 | 599503 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

will they give a refund if they are out of business come spring? - just asking

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:59 | 599515 docj
docj's picture

Heh - almost certainly not.  Still a better investment than Fraud Street though, methinks.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:54 | 599504 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Didn't that company already declare bankruptcy?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:58 | 599512 docj
docj's picture

Yep.  They never closed, though.

What a country.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:07 | 599525 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

reminds me of that movie Office Space.

They actually fired all the people but forgot the send out the memo and because of a glitch in accountancy their paychecks are still being paid :)

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:07 | 599522 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

That's like two trips to the movies, couple of days worth of wine, or a couple of cases of beer. They do well in times like these.

Edit: Right, beer never goes out of business. Good pt.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:38 | 599593 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

will they give a refund if they are out of business come spring? - just asking

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:51 | 599497 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

So what trick will they play to get money into consumers hands in some effort to spur Christmas/Hanukkah sales? Giving money away is one thing, getting consumers to spend it is another.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:04 | 599521 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

They'll send out stimulus checks "good at these fine retailers!"

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:13 | 599537 docj
docj's picture

Not checks - gift cards.

From Uncle Sugar, with love - now SPEND YOU SERFS!!

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:51 | 599499 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

So higher unemployment is bullish or Bearish?

I seem to have that one wrong every month...

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:08 | 599527 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

CNBC spin would be higher UE is green shoots better than expected because it means manufacturers and retailer are getting more efficient by elimination overhead costs.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:10 | 599531 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

It is because, this time it really is the bottom. It's gotta be.

Well it might be.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:52 | 599500 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

they didnt revise as much as they thought they would have to, so we should see a 20 point climb today, no?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:55 | 599506 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Considering we broke through 1130 before this news, I kinda doubt it.  I imagine the big boys are gonna ride this sucker back down now (were already short yesterday).

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:37 | 599589 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Some of us went short after that spike up after FOMC notes.  Same as last time they released the notes. 

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