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Initial Claims Print At 388K, Far Lower Than Expectations Of 418K, Non-Seasonally Adjusted Claims Jump To 521K
And the year end seasonal divergence starts: while seasonally adjusted
claims came at 388,000, a 34,000 drop from the prior week, and 30k below
consensus, it is the Non-Seasonally adjusted number which probably
provides a far better indication of what is happening: and at 521,834 it
was a 24,879 increase from last week's 497k. Additionally, the 99 week
cliff continues impacting more and more claims recipients: a total of
150k people dropped from EUCs and Extended claims. Lastly continuing
claims increased on a Seasonally Adjusted basis by 57K to 4.128MM even
as the actual NSA number declined. Lastly, last week's slightly better than expected print of 420k has been revised to what would have halved the number to the expectation of 424k. We will soon chart how in 2010, the BLS revised upward (i.e. adversely) almost 100% of its initial claims data in the subsequent week.
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BTFD
How do you adjust for seasonal vs non
Multiply non by 1.34 to get seasonal?
fugitabotit BTFD !
Hiding A Depression: How The US Government Does It
"The real US unemployment rate is not 9.8% but between 25% and 30%. "
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1293647522.php
Calculate the number required to show a positive ramp. Voila!
.
After reading ZH Jobs reports commentary for a year I now have a PhD in BLS.....
Actually you would be dismissed as over-qualified...and way, way, way too honest.
Which means you made a bundle trading this data.
Oh yeah, data don't matter. Nevermind
and JUST IN TIME to ramp the futures back to parity!
It's another Festivus MIRACLE!
I just received this email image from dear old Uncle Ben.
Tyler,
Did you think the Bureau of Lies and Statistics wouldn't give Obama's "Team America" and his corporate/bansta puppets a Christmas present? You're such a Scrooge Tyler. Even the oligarchy needs good cheer this time of year. To hell with the "real" numbers, it's time to believe in fat men in red suits and reindeer.
Get with the program Tyler. :>)
Gold getting dumped on the jobs news. Looks like Sinclair goofed up again. The economy is not imploding, it is getting better.
Read the Turd. Its not the job news.
link to his blog please.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/
http://www.tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/
Robo, so from $1410 to $1407 (now at $1409) is a 'dump'? Wow, you need to find a new place to write. Of course ZH needs dumb-arses just like Kitco needs Nadler. Perhaps you and Nadler should get a room?
just to pin to 1400 even. nothing fancy and the news is just a trigger to move the futures
OH NOES GOLD IS DOWN $2.5 AS WE SPEAK THE BUBBLE IS POPPING!!eleventyone
Seriously, where is the 'ignore' button again?
Down 5, what a wipeout. lulz
great Robo - enjoy it while it lasts...
care to predict how low it will go???
well. RT certainly gets creds for his consistency. unfortunately, as Swift says "consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds". Au down $4 after a $50 spike. what a dump. Maybe you ought apply to the BLS. you'd fit right in. idiot.
Not to argue, but it was RW Emerson, not Swift; and it was foolish consistency. Can't forget the modifier.
Looks more like a yawn to me... but you know... whatever...
Pass some more hot potatoes on the equity market robot.
you're fucking retarded dude.
My goodness, a whole 0.62%. I am selling all of my metals immediately.
Robo,
Hourly charts don't show squat in regards to fundamentals. Try to stop being an idiot once in a while.
I thought you were now a "distressed analyst" focusing on financials...LOL!
RobotTrader, the only difference between your posts and Johnny Bravo's is your ability to post images. Your privileges should be revoked for abuse.
So the USA unemployment problem is over, we are saved!
Crude oil getting sold hard.
Perhaps we'll see another rally in consumer discretionary names again.
Same old, same old drill.
Down 40 cents is sold hard? Same old same old shill.
He is, by far, the worst contributor here...sans Leo. Actually, he and Leo are tied for last place.
ZH would be improved with an ignore button. Robo and Harry would disappear.
I may disagree with much of what Leo writes, but Leo USUALLY puts some thought and good faith into what he writes, and he allegedly does manage pension money.
Robo, Harry Wang and there's one more here (can't remember his/her screen name); well, they're just plain trolls, and I do suspect that at least Robo isn't nearly as stupid as he projects to be, and that he enjoys riling the crowd.
By the way, how/why did Robo and Harry get the power to paste jpegs and such?
All the gas stations are running out right now to drop the prices at th pumps. Lol.
Get real.
DOW getting sold hard, down a whopping $4 !!!
RoboShill. He thinks he's at Yahoo!Finance.
I was expecting to see a lot of "estimated", but surprisingly did not. Am I surprised to see such a low print, nope. It is the last print before 2011, so they were going to massage the data as much as they possibly could. Next week ought to be an interesting print.
P.S. Me thinks the Euro is looking like a good sell in a little bit.
So the Department of Labor invented 133,000 plus jobs? At that rate of make believe it will only take 12 years to get back to an unemployment rate of 5%.....sweet!
People are losing benefits. This is not positive news. Expect foreclosures to ramp up to unseen levels until 2012.
Foreclosures rose in Q3.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Foreclosures-rise-in-Q3-as-apf-1245514308....
economy is really good!
continuing claims will drop a lot as 99 week runs out. so unemployement rate will drop.
So buy the fucking dip!!
STFR!
Its almost shocking futures aren't up more since the number. Has anyone ever figured out if 52 weeks of actual adds up to 52 weeks of seasonally adjusted?
Why would markets be up? Today is not a POMO day.
Speaking of which, is it me, or did US treasuries rally AFTER the POMO closed yesterday; as in the PDs now deliberately manipulate the price down before the POMO, to move it back up once over?
If so, nice little operation they have going there. They actively trade against America.
I have been assuming that lately POMO has been used to supress oil prices, more than to force stocks up.
Pomo on the 3rd. No reason to buy today.
Hookers an blow
Does cocaine store well in those plastic food containers or will you be growing your own coca plants on the self-actualized farm of the future?
Tyler, Can you please cover and drill down about the changes in the BLS reporting of employment numbers that will be occurring in February? It would be nice to know exactly how to interpret the lies from that point forward.
Let's see, 521.8K minus 388K adjusted is 134K people whisked away by the seasonal adjustment. As of June 30 2010, Microsoft reports headcount at 88,596.(http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/inside_ms.mspx). BLS spin. Unreal.
.
First quarter 2011 marks the 4-5 quarters AFTER year over year profits improved dramatically. Of course there is going to be an improving job picture.
But with the second and third quarter GDP profits being nearly the same, the improvements are not going to last very long.
Obama's arrogance will shine throughout the spring and summer as he claims credit for the jobs picture, only to see that derailed as the primaries get started.
Without government subsidies, there is only one thing that increases hiring:
Profits.
This is not rocket science. It should be common sense.
Funny, Most execs see it differently ....nowadays the way you increase profits is buy cutting cost...... the code word for cutting jobs -a.k.a labor the biggest percentage of cost for most corporations.
At least that is what I see in my line of work.
I don't believe most executives see it differently.
Jobs are cut because the employee is not increasing the profit picture significantly enough to cover his expense.
And when government changes the equation-via the tax code or the health care laws or the mininimum wage laws, we all know what is affected first.
It's not as if a pizza restaurant can swap to a cheaper oven when they are forced to pay higher wages and offer insurance. So we know who bears the brunt of cost cutting.
But once the organization is right-sized to the new profit potential, employment stabalizes and has a chance to increase within that organization.
Sounds great on paper but you forgot the greed factor. Down-sizing occurs to cut cost and produce profits. Once profits increase yes some hiring will occur but it is usually minimum and never back to previous levels.
here is an idea .... how about right-sizing executive pay? In 1980 Executive pay to average employee pay ratio was 40-1 and in 2007 Executive to average employee pay ratio was 344-1... funny when them top dogs think about cutting cost it never comes out of their pockets.
Greed factor. It has nothing to do with greed. That is an emotional term used to generate an emotional response.
Here's a fact that you need to accept: that even if everything was kept the same as the previous year, then you would still need fewer employees because of productivity improvements. Companies are not here to put people to work. They are here to profit. Hiring is a consequence of that objective, and nothing more. For feel-good hiring, get a government job.
And let's leave the setting of salaries to the owners of the companies. That means the responsibility of the shareholders. And if you do not like how the company pays, sell your shares and go elsewhere.
Let's leave the greed where it belongs: government eyeing the profits of corporations and fantasizing how they would like to spend them.
There is such a thing as social responsibility and corporate resposibility. So if you keep all your profits for yourself pay your workers a barely livable wage and layoff hundreds so you can have a 5 million dollar bonus thats ok? THE GREED Factor. Who is going to buy your product in the end if there is no one left with an expendable income? Of course corporations are not in the welfare business and rightly should make a profit, they are the risk takers, but how much is enough? I'm not for government regulating what one can make, but I do support one being socially responsible, of course when you want it all for yourself that is hard to do. After all people are just numbers on a spreadsheet.
Are you claiming we are all robots and there is no such thing as emotions?
Here is a fact you need to accept - We don't live in a void and you can't live a greedy lifestyle forever eventually it will catch up with you or with us as a society.
Yes greed exist in the government as well but I see little differecne then the government and corporate America. They are intertwined and in cohoots - lobbyist don't work for you and me they work for the major corporations and they have the government in their back pocket...it's all a big scam.
Still counting heads instead of aggregate income. Tsk tsk.
Laissez les mal temps rouler.
Damn straight. I know a guy who was laid off in 2008. He was a certified project manager for a large company, $90K/year salary. He's now working part time as a store clerk at minimum wage. So just because someone returns to work doesn't mean all is well.
They're part of the U-6. Yes, they're working, but not full-time work.
Yeah, and the politicos never mention U6. They essentially dismiss it as a theoretical number that bears no relationship to reality. Of course, for people trying to survive on slave wages, it gets 'real' in a hurry.
Or U7 which was scrubbed from the books in the 80s. Which included the structural unemployed in which the system could not employ, so they just gave up looking after several years of attempts.
I haven't seen any commentary from Harry wanger here recently.
I guess Scrooge's heart wasn't black enough to lay off Bob Cratchit on Christmas week. I'll wait til next week before I call it a trend.
113 weeks + a fraction of a week for me, and I'm not liking this number. I would hope things turn for the better in a good way, not a "let's play statistics games" way that masks the truth.
At this point, it's about sweeping the people who got laid off in 2007-2009 under the rug. It could be zero and I'd not care. When the private sector stops playing dirty pool with contracting and offshoring(that is, finally hiring people in the US and EU for honest, long-term work), those numbers might mean something.
The private sector avoids the long-term unemployed, and the government is equally out of touch with these people. That needs to stop.
Bloomberg shills are having a party, proclaiming a huge rise in hiring and Q3 sales of homes? Shameless shills....sad to see a once fine financial media group go total sellout.
Holy cow...a few bears just actually showed up. Could be because the totally morally depraved USD is now totally making a move on Mrs. Yen...uh hem. Another currency intervention in Japan? Why not? We are all Banana Republic Trees now anyway.
on a long enough timeline , the unemployment rate will go to zero
On a long enough timeline, there'll be the heat death of the Universe.
Somehow, I can't figure out how to trade that. Dyson Spheres? Dunno.
So the Bureau of Making Shit Up manufactures 133K "seasonal" jobs at a time when reasonable, rational people would assume "seasonal" employment is at its peak - inferring that any "seasonal" adjustments should be in the opposite direction.
Wow, things must be unraveling faster than even I thought they would.
Doc
What's wrong with that? Bodes well for "manufacturing" numbers next quarter. You seem like you don't understand the new economy, which simply is B. Bernanke giving money to bankers. Presto. No more jobs. No more need for pesky things like revenue, earnings, or anything. No need for debt instruments. All passe now.
Banana Republic Tree.
Gawd, those BLS people must have such soft hands from massaging all those numbers.
Labor market has very little effect on Equity Markets any longer. Corporations have moved on and are doing very well, even though our economy / labor market is not. Those are two different topics.
What does the time series for the unadjusted data look like over the last 5 years?
When it comes to initial jobless claims I do not pull out the unadjusted claims and here is why:
Historically, unadjusted claims rise much higher than adjusted claims every year in the Nov-Dec time frame as well as in the May-June time frame, although the difference is not as great in the summer. Check out the second chart in this article. It Illustrates my point.
http://maysreport.com/2010/12/09/jobless-claims-trend-lower-does-it-matter/
Folks, they did the same thing on the big jobs number in October. From the Barron's issue immediately following (quoting ShadowStats):
Regarding the good jobs number, Alan Abelson wrote the following in his Barron's column this weekend: THE JOBS REPORT FOR OCTOBER was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, and at first blush was surprisingly strong, much stronger, indeed, than expected. Payrolls expanded by 151,000 and the two previous months' were revised upward. But hold the hurrahs. The unemployment rate was stuck at 9.6%, and, toss in the underemployed and the rate remains at an elevated 17%. Moreover, the household version of the employment picture was a real bummer, showing an employment drop of 330,000. That especially weird disparity between the household and the payroll reports made us do a double-take. Happily, the always astute Stephanie Pomboy of MacroMavens provided a quickie explanation:"The seasonal bar which the payroll data must jump was (inexplicably and dramatically) lowered from prior Octobers."Thus in October 2009, the BLS set the bar at 870,000 jobs, similar to the 840,000 it anticipated in October 2008. This year, by contrast, it lowered the bar to 768,000. Mumbo, jumbo, payrolls presented "an upside surprise" of 100,000.According to John Williams at Shadow Government Statistics, the BLS' fiddling with the figures via what he calls "seasonal-factor games" actually created 200,000 phantom jobs last month. John cites such finagling as the reason his prediction of an October decline and a rise in the jobless rate was wrong. It also explains why seasonally adjusted payrolls were revised upward by 110,000 in September including 56,000 in August. As we've observed before, those seasonal adjustments sure are magical: They can make it snow in the Sahara and be hot as blazes in the middle of winter in Siberia.Excellent piece; thanks.
Until this government and media information stranglehold is broken, the northeastern financial-political-legal complex controls not only the message, but twists the reactions of Americans to its policies. For instance, it says Americans are just fine with TSA pat-downs and body scanner machines, but the evidence shows otherwise.
The BLS initial claims report is another case in point. America’s banker-run government has an unemployment problem that just doesn’t go away, no matter how it lies about it. And it’s not getting any better. Today the media gushes on a report that’s not a hiring report, but a firing report--of those who lost their jobs just before Christmas, and applied for unemployment compensation.
Americans face a tremendous unemployment situation that government figures cover up; silent millions with formerly good jobs are underemployed. These are the people who would rather take any job and stay in the workforce to support their families, rather than sit at home on unemployment as US jobs continue to be shipped overseas.
But General Electric with its alien loyalties has an additional plan, ship technology and weapons to China as well, as it finalizes plans for a 50-50 joint venture with a Chinese military-jet maker to produce avionics, the electronic brains of aircraft, challenging Boeing workers and American security.
In short, the government’s latest contrived weekly report is just another false propaganda reading from Oz.
What I look at is examples in my neighborhood and at work. Two people in my street lost their jobs, packed up and left to live at some cheaper place (with friends). Where I work, we also had layoffs (business is doing good) and new hires were postponed until after Q4.
The Italians hung Mussolini by his nutsack, once they seized the opportunity.
The Ben Bernank may want to buy a jock strap made of titanium.
Tyler let's not forget the constant downward revisions of NFPs over last THREE years !!! also :)