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Initial Claims Print At 404K On Expectations Of 420K, Total UI Claimants Increase By 401K
The BLS' struggle with seasonality continues. After last week Initial Claims were far worse than expected, this time they were due for a flip, and as expected, came in better than expected, printing at 404K on expectations of 420K, compared to a revised 441K. The Non-seasonally adjusted claims declined from 763,098 to 550,594. Continuing claims was also better than expected, coming at 3,861,000 on expectations of 3,985,000. All in all, another number that will be revised worse next week, and which does nothing to dent the Unemployment Rate which needs consistent sub-400k claims to actually improve the jobeless rate. Probably most interesting was that persons claiming UI benefits across all programs jumped by nearly half a million in the week ended January 1 to 9.6 million.
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Everything is fucking wonderful. Just heard some ass on cnbs say that if the numbers were bad they would be ignored to wait and see a trend, if better than expected that's a good thing. Tired of the lying and manipulating. Just fed up with the bullshit and lies. Oh, market is better? Well bring back mark to market and stop the QE and POMOs. Once upon a time there was functional market with price discovery.
Bad News for QE! this should bring the market down...
The only thing wall street rally's on is bad news; high unemployment means the drug dealer still has candy for the addict.
this could mean it's the Betty Ford center for wall street...
But not to worrry. Even wall street (or should i say, the government) doesnt believe its own bullshit; the markets will rally back on piss poor fundamentals.
What are you talking about?
This means fewer people qualified for unemployment insurance, not that the employment situation has improved, let alone has stopped deteriorating...it hasn't; it's getting worse.
QE Forever! Set printers on warp! Make it so.
Last year, I gave you $1350 by Halloween.
Today, I give you $1600 by Memorial Day.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/darkest-before-dawn.html
WOW, WTF is going on with Silver? It's getting blowtorched today.
ask 27.60 -$1.25
Just remember, it could always be worse. At least, that seems to be the conventional wisdom spewing forth from the talking heads and well paid academics.
For as smart as these guys are for sell side analysis and such they are wrong with their estimates 90% of the time. Everything is better than expected or a miss.
I'd love to be paid to be wrong all the time.
And again, why anyone in the BLS department still has a job is a mystery that will... remain mysterious for longer than any of us shall live...probably.
OR...as part of cost cutting, the entire department could be closed down.
You're such an idealist.
LOL
"Once upon a time there was functional market with price discovery."
"Price Discovery." Now there's a phrase I haven't heard used in a while. Outside ZH anyway.
So I suppose this means the Ministry of Truth managed to seasonally adjust only 145K newly FUNemployed out of existence this week.
Swell. Rally on.
Claims have effectively been neutered as an economic indicator. They're not going to influence decision-makers, certainly not the Fed. Almost worth taking a 99 day break from reporting claims.
They will be turning out encouraging numbers even when 90% are unemployed.
Isn't that the truth!!!!
that still leaves 10% of the working force WHO CAN PAY TAXES!
TAXES = GOOD
SO SPENDING ON FUTURE REVENUE CAN CONTINUE!!!!
DOW = 100.000!
Well, they finally had a downward revision.
That will be revised when they do the 'other' revisions of course
oh yes PMs on sale!
Mr Bukkake sure is doing a wonderful job! Everyone is happily employed.
Futures go green? I'm sure the POMO crew can bid it up.
Why do you think they have been holding them up all day/night (depending on where you live) because they already knew them... at least China is open about the leaks!!
China wants their people to be richer than the US. I'm not sure what the US wants for it's people....
And, by "their people" you are referring to members of the Communist Party, right?
I think they still have a hangover from their binchdrinking party from yesterday...
Explains why they have college kids running the show. I think I saw Trader 1 and Trader 2 at McSorely's last night.
+10
:)
And I'm still waiting to see any real analysis from the street examining jobless claims. I remain convinced that with the structural changes in the labor force - more part time - more consultants - smaller number of people with jobs - that 400k is no longer a number that is a sign of an improving labor market. The street chirps and babbles about how it is, but I find it impossible to believe that the job market has changed in the past 3 years, and this 400k rule of thumb is now a waste, but why should the street do any hard work when its so much easier this way.
Completely agree--neighbor who has been able to get an xtra 20 weeks (from state and his 99 is up) has to apply by mail with a claim application that is sent to him (no more auto deposit)--that was in last week of dec--since then has not recieved any more weekly apps--after 5 separate calls and being told that that his applications have been mailed have not been recieved--smoke and mirrors and this is from Missouri--Unemployment numbers released mean NADA--
CNBS headline "Weekly Claims Turn Lower as Hope Rises for Jobs Market"! Great news for all those who just lost their jobs. They'll probably just BTFD.
Meaningless. Even Benron admits we're probably stuck at 9% forever.
We are in a recovery
5 states showed improvement and 33 states showed degrading...hmmm Me thinks there will be a big revision.
Does anyone else see the irony in the title (i.e. "401K").
ha
Tyler it's the Department of Lies (dol.gov) that does this reporting. Not the Bureau of Lies and Spin (bls.gov) for those that want to go straight to the source of the ministry of propaganda's multiple redundant departments.
I take Benron at his word that we're
not going anywhere on jobs.
The street will continue to pump
meaningless numbers as meaningful
to the sheeple.
housing is finally ok....not
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/111848/the-eight-states-run...
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I think the Foodstamp number is the new statistic.....they don´t drop off that one...and it keeps going up...
While not even a statistical sample, I have a relative on Food Stamps (SNAP) in California. They went from $187 a month to $108 at the year change for no reason. Maybe its the internal paperwork to kick folks off the roles, but to have your food money cut in half overnight - ouch.
As an aside, I live in one of the better areas for housing and income. Yesterday, - for the first time ever - I have a neighbor knock on the door selling tamales and spring rolls door-to-door. While I don't know her personally, she lives in a 2,500 sq ft house with jet-skis in the side yard and 2 kids in the front. You could see the broken spirit in her eyes as she asked for $5 for a bag of 5 spring rolls. Being the "cash is king" bastard I am, I got 10 for $5. I think it was her first sale. I don't know if its safe to even eat.
Any embarrassment she had melted away when she got that cash in her hand.
She is probably just trying to keep the power on.
Actual unadjusted number of claims 550,594. Headline number 404,000. Cartel pulls their bids at the Comex, gold drops 25 bucks, media reports gold down due to jobs report helping dollar.
Why hey that is much better news , i guess Yahoo news (where i get my email) who is always last and such a cheerleader for Big Nanny State is saying that housing is worse and will continue trend . Well i got to ignore that because they Said Big Nanny will try to step in and save the most deserving places ( and you know Nanny never fails) ( well except that one time ) anyway i am glad to see things are looking up . i do have a link for Yahoos great story tho http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/111848/the-eight-states-running-out-of-homebuyers?mod=realestate-buy oh and don't buy any houses in Flint Michigan as Nanny may be buldozing some of them , unless you knew ahead of time and got insurance , but that might be kinda like fruad so never mind, dang i need some ,more coffee ,cramers coming on in a minute and i can't miss that (show) .
Welcome to America.
We have lost our way. We are a nation in which dishonest monetary policies make trillions of dollars readily available to the richest among us, while these very same monetary policies precipitate huge increases in commodities prices and thus skyrocketing food costs for hundreds of millions of poor people worldwide; a nation whose government presses its citizens to go further and further into debt, because economic growth, even if it is based upon gluttonous consumption and legalized accounting fraud, must remain our creed; a nation in which an individual who has quit looking for a job is not counted (by the Bureau of Labor Statistics) as being one of the country’s millions of unemployed citizens. Mohandas Gandhi once said, “…there is no god higher than truth…”. In America, there is no god higher than wealth. And in pursuit of the almighty, the truth be damned.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMq8Ert1ss0