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Initial Claims Print At 409K, Down From Upward Revised 438K, Below Expectations Of 420K

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Another week, another 400+ jobless print, another prior upward revision: the DOL does it like clockwork. In the week ended May 14, initial jobless claims were filed by 409,000 people (to be revised to at least 412,000 next week), which while is a drop from last week's upward revised 438,000 (originally 434,000), better than consensus, yet with the number being well above 400,000, it means that the economy continues to be a net loser of jobs. Lastly, while irrelevant, the 4 week moving average printed at 439,000, highest since November, due to that outsized print from two weeks ago. This number will rise over the next week as well. Continuing claims dropped slightly from an upward (of course) revised 3,792K (first 3,756K) to 3,711K, beating expectations of 3,278K. Looking at the 99 week cliff, it appears an equilibrium has been reached as 49K lost Extended Benefits in the week ended April 30, offset by 53K people added to EUCs.

Looking at individual states with big moves, New York posted a decrease of 23,445 in layoffs as a result of "Fewer layoffs in the service and construction industries." Other states were relatively in line with expectations.

Full report.

 

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Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:39 | 1290817 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

Is it fun to mention upward revisions every Thursday?

There are errors in statistics and it is ALL PRICED IN!!

 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:08 | 1290910 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Why does no one on CNBS mention that each and every week the previous number is revised higher, which is statisticly IMPOSSIBLE?  Does this not throw doubt on ALL the numbers?  Yet all we get is Liesman's smug, fat face telling us how wonderful everything is.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:11 | 1290923 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Well at least in addition to that punk Lieman, we get to watch such great commercials on CNBS over and over...

-- I may be in my pajamas, but I'm studying for a MBA...

--Bill Schaeffer made a profit with his invention which is not typical...

--Parents and grandparents with Gerber's life insurance for your newborn..

--GET MAGICJET!!! or MAGICJACK or what ever...ARGHHH

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:15 | 1290954 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

Why on earth would you watch CNBC?

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:27 | 1291013 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Because I am the great KRUGMAN!

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:01 | 1291159 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Paul Krugman, I don't mean to pester you, but when is your next dissertation going to be published?

The Nobel Committee is anxiously awaiting it.

Wasn't it to be titled 'Printing The Amount of Currency Equal to The National Debt In Order to Pay Off Said National Debt,' or something similar?

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 12:49 | 1291939 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Why on earth would you watch CNBC?

To know what the dirty rotten scoundrels are up to you must be aware of their disinformation campaign.  Gotta maintain Situational Awareness.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 12:24 | 1291919 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

We get mostly "Buy Gold" on CNBS in my neck of the woods.  lol.  seriously.  no bankster commercials.  no broakerage commercials.  mostly "buy gold" and MAJICJACK!!

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:15 | 1290949 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

they obviously are using the new T.M.I method discussed on south park

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:51 | 1291417 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

there's a statistical term for that...

 

Initial Claims are a biased estimator.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:41 | 1290821 Racer
Racer's picture

Once upon a time that sort of number would have been shocking to the market, now... oh it beats expectations....so that's okay then

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:05 | 1290908 6 String
6 String's picture

Yup. Good enough to send the Russell 2000 up at least another 1% today. Rock on.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:10 | 1290932 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

These guys would be funny if they were just ignorant and believed the horse shit they peddled. As it is, they're simply dangerous:

05-19 09:06: Fed's Dudley says monetary policy doing its part to spur job growth
Thu, 05/19/2011 - 15:25 | 1292863 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

last summer when the market had to rely and react on news, without hope that every bad report means more fed money any print over 400k like this would sell off and people would worry. Now it's eh.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:41 | 1290822 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

The thought that this could be good news is symptomatic of a DEEP and EXPANDING SICKNESS.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:48 | 1290835 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Couldn't just hire enough people each cycle to make the numbers 'right'?

We need more crunchers of fictional numbers, stat!

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:46 | 1290843 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Great.

Two years after the recession ended, and one year after that failing up dope Geithner "welcomed the US to the recovery" claims still above 400,000.

Anyone remember in the spring of 2010 when VP Biden said US would soon be creating 250,000 to 500,000 jobs a month. The VP is about as accurate as WS strategists.

 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:51 | 1290864 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

He didn't say we'd be creating them in the U.S.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:56 | 1290876 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Excellent point.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:45 | 1291093 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Heh.  +1

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:01 | 1290883 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

Yes, and the next time some damn politician claims they "can create" jobs, call them on it.  And if the person next to you buys it, shake some sense into them.

These SOBs rely on the birth/death model in each and every state to make such false claims.

The 'barely not in prison' Gov. Rick Scott in Florida, (thank you Republicans and Tea Party folks for all you have done for the Sunshine State)  claimed he WAS going to create 250,000 jobs.  Instead he has killed 20,000+ jobs, and families, and towns, and the heart and souls of Floridians BE DAMNED.

NO POLITICIAN can create jobs,PERIOD, unless they are talking about expanding government. 

Remember that!

Remember that this time!

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:32 | 1291335 SendMeYourWorth...
SendMeYourWorthlessMoney's picture

VP not honest?

Don't forget - "there's no possibility to restore 8 million jobs lost in the Great Recession."

Vice President Joe Biden, 06-35-2010, in a rare moment before the language handlers got to him, at a fundraiser with Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wisc.) in Milwaukee, while 150 people ate $500 a plate dinners.

So far he has been right on in his assessment of their ability to do this.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:46 | 1290844 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

whats the TOTAL of unemployed people in USA ....thats the only number that matters

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:22 | 1290973 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

According to www.usdebtclock.org it is 23,704,624

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:51 | 1290851 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Where are all these jobs we keep losing coming from?  Surely this well must run dry?

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:53 | 1290859 cowpieflapjack
cowpieflapjack's picture

When everyone is out of work, the well will be dry.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:55 | 1290867 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

job losses are just getting started at the state and city level....teachers, cops, firefighters, court employees etc etc........

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:32 | 1291037 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Laying off cops, teachers, firemen and government clerical workers (paper pushing bureaucrats) would be five stars in my book, especially cops. Fewer cops = more freedom.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:47 | 1291102 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Fewer cops = more freedom to a point...  and then you start to go the other way...  where it leads to the freedom for others to ensure you have nothing...  difficult thing to balance...  not sure if humanity is up to the task, even on a local level.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:59 | 1291141 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

MM, fewer cops means less hassling of minorities, meaning they won't have to go on looting sprees in order to survive. Cops hassle minorities because that's what they've been trained to do and it's all a part of their macho mentality.

Even here in the 'burbs where I live, a town cop sits in his $40,000 cruiser looking directly at the front door of the liquor store every Thursday and Friday afternoon (why I buy on Tuesdays, BTW). If I owned that liqour store, I'd ask him to vacate as he drives business to other stores that are not being "watched."

Cops are a scourge on the public in general. Fewer of them would constitute a better standard of living for the rest of us. If there are miscreants about, the general public will surely find ways in which to deal with them. Cops and courts only make the process of keeping the streets crime-free more expensive and time-consuming.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 13:01 | 1292141 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Right...  we're talking in circles.  Here's the issue, the novelty of police decreases directly proportionately to increases in the size and scope of supreme court decisions and laws limiting freedom of the individual...  seems strange, but the more onerous the laws, the more onerous the police...  simple as that...

In other words, the concept of police is sound and necessary...  however, in our particular case, given our legal system and social norms, our police often serve higher powers and are ridiculously inefficient (e.g. 20 cops to go bust a convenience store selling synthetic marijuana).  They don't have to be a scourge on the public, but often times are simply due to the rudimentary act of following the law... 

If you are advocating mob rule, then I hope you have a personal military backing you and are capable of genocide...  and I realize that democracy is often times a distinction without a difference, but it's at least a more polite way of going about it.  In the end, everyone hates the police until they need them...

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 19:25 | 1293820 Peter_Griffin
Peter_Griffin's picture

Reduction of .gov compensation and jobs will be the end to our bubble.  We have gov debt and exports driving our economy, with exports not brining in nearly enough $ to keep the economy rolling.

The only way we make it through this is other countries funding our debt long enough for us to steal their exporters.  IMO, not very likely.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:49 | 1290855 cowpieflapjack
cowpieflapjack's picture

Why do they bother with messy revisions? Just make up the numbers. Then they will always be right.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:54 | 1290871 Fantasy Planet
Fantasy Planet's picture

IMF legal costs were also revised upward.  

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:56 | 1290878 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

These numbers are like glitter on Gingrich's head -- nice attempt to jazz up the situation, but still an ugly piece of sheeet underneath

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THhpGsZAryg&feature=feedu

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:04 | 1290889 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Another day of waterboarding for the perma-gloomers:

- ES futures up, shucking off bad news again.

- Gold getting sold off.

- Linkedin going public with great applause.

 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:07 | 1290906 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

LNKD....SOLD TO YOU.

$4.5B valuation on $50m of revenue. HAHAHAHAHAHA.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:22 | 1290974 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well thats just the 'new normal' Im sure, cant have a stock on Wall St with under 50 P/E at least!

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:26 | 1290991 Hedge Jobs
Hedge Jobs's picture

if a site for retards like linked-in is worth 4.5 bill then an IPO of Zero hedge must be worth a gazillion.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:38 | 1291048 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

If that worthless LinkedIn website is worth $4.5 billion, then I am a super hot woman with big bazombas who will lay any fat guy on the planet, including Steve Liesman while he's eating his 17th donut of the morning.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:52 | 1291112 Fantasy Planet
Fantasy Planet's picture

I actually make contacts on LinkedIn that result in business.  But I would agree it's worth is closer to "worthless' than $4.5B.  And it offers something more useful than Farcebook or Titter.  And no, I'm not buying into the IPO. 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:16 | 1290942 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Linkedin goes to Wall $t. Ain't that just great. Next up, expect an immediate modification to Terms Of Service Agreement (ie. "Linkedin has the right to sell all your personal information to the highest bidder.")  Aren't you glad you shared all that info?

Got Identity Theft? You will, Bwhahahaha...

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:49 | 1291108 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

I heard some hillarious LinkedIn PR this morning.

1) "Well LinkedIn isn't a Microsoft, Apple or Facebook yet - but those who get in early have a chance of bagging a real gem"

(How refreshing to hear that a new tech IPO isn't the next Microsoft - how humble LinkedIn.)

2) The revenue streams are rising

(although premium revenue has hardly budged - it's all from 'hiring revenue' - which is simply selling personal details to recruitment agents. Something which is already pissing off existing users)

3) The IPO is good for the company, it will raise cash and the company can do a lot with that.

(I immediately pictured a young CEO buying a Ferrari and some RayBans)

 

The bubblising of LinkedIn is actually worse than the Bubblising of OCADO by the two ex-Goldman 'bubblers' - and now that stock is only 25% over the initial (revised down) IPO price - and falling.....

When will investors learn - you cannot base a valuation on an internet company based on a discounted cash income for the 20 - 30 years as MOST internet startup barely last a decade.

We're all hyping Facebook right now - but I will be very very surprised if it's even still around in 2021. People who invest in tech bubbles show their lack of understanding of how fast IT progresses.

The dinosaurs are investing in tech coms. like their old industrial giants.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:24 | 1291280 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Yeah, Linkedin needs to pay-off a pundit to preach "It's different for Internet IPOs. They should be valued on Price-Sales, not Price-Earnings. New paradigm, blah blah...". Is Abby Joesph Cohen available? She was a master at that during the internet bubble.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:17 | 1290965 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Im glad Tyler pulled your ability to post your stupid charts, next he should ban you from posting at all here troll.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:24 | 1290981 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Gold opened the week at 1495 it's now at 1489.  That's less then 1% drop and that's a sell off???  Is my math wrong??  what am I missing Robo??

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:35 | 1291046 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

If the 'market' (aka Ponzi) closes flat to red today, RoboTrader's Mom has to grant DSK a conjugal visit.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:37 | 1291060 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Robo is sad to hear that, he was hoping he'd get 1st dibs on a DSK conjugal visit himself! He even had a new 'I (heart) The FED' t shirt all cleaned and pressed.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:07 | 1291171 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Robo's Mom insisted. She needs to make some fast money given the losses in retail and the momo stocks she's incurred, based on her retarded son's recommendations, as of late.

Robo is trying to get her to take a reverse mortgage out on her modest home and invest the proceeds into Linkedin.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:42 | 1291066 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LNKD bookmarked for the next time Robo puts up another supposed gloat post. 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:04 | 1290890 kito
kito's picture

all i know is that the stocks are happy, gold is not. tyler, when are we expecting the qe crash? your loyal followers, gold in hand, short on the spy, await your answer....

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:05 | 1290893 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

With school ending do high school students freshly looking for jobs count and do college students looking for jobs count?

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:03 | 1290896 mworden
mworden's picture

And when school's out, there will be even more jobless...but will not be refelected in unemployment claims.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:08 | 1290922 Fox-Scully
Fox-Scully's picture

Several questions:

1 Do they (surveyed economists) actually publish their unemployment estimates? 

2. If so when ?

3. Do we know who these economists are? 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:35 | 1291051 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All the eCONomists said 2 years ago we'd be gaining huge jobs in Q1 of 2010. 400,000 weekly since then.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:56 | 1291125 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

I've always wondered this - when they say 'above / below expectations' - who the fuck are they talking about?

 

Everyone I know expects higher and higher unemployment based on their own, and their families experience (and things their boss says) - and yet somewhere 'expectations' are that things are going to get better.

 

I would suggest they stop going to these clown optimists - they're never right and they don't seem to have any reasoning for expecting better than they get.

....and they nearly always over-play it - I can't remember the time any jobs report came in way under expectations (except hiring numbers!)

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:37 | 1291058 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

All news will be bullish no matter what until options expiration.

It's the law.

Click it or ticket, bitchez!

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:41 | 1291073 Spitzers Black Socks
Spitzers Black Socks's picture

This is the Associated Pravda coverage of the job numbers:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of people applying for unemployment benefits fell sharply for the second straight week, suggesting the job market is slowly recovering.

Applications for benefits dropped 29,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 409,000, the Labor Department said.

The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose slightly to 439,000. It was the sixth straight increase. [emphasis added]

I can't believe they let that third paragraph in there.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:58 | 1291145 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

You beat me to it.

The ASSociated Press insults Pravda's relatively much higher levels of journalistic integrity.

Anyone thinking this doesn't end FUBAR is delusional.

But...but...this time is different.Really.

 

Blah blah blahdeblahdeeeeblah.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:58 | 1291140 wearef_ckedwith...
wearef_ckedwithnohope's picture

Yes - the teachers, state workers, town & city employees, etc to be laid off when budgets are finalized have yet to show up.  And these employers do not pay an unemployment tax on their payrolls like typical employers.  Instead, they reimburse the unemployment agency DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR for up to 26 weeks of benefits as a "Reimbursable Employer".  There will be a lot of benefit charges to these organizations.".

 

 

 

 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:56 | 1291143 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Revisions going unnoticed is like how everyone else has their head in the sand about the amount of debt in the world. As time goes on, the shit piles up only to be reckoned with sooner or later.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 10:16 | 1291236 digalert
digalert's picture

It's the Obama effect stupid.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 11:25 | 1291586 DeadFinks
DeadFinks's picture

The term to describe the present administration (BTW, it has nothing to do with race): 

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Nigger%20Rich&defid=1218625

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 12:13 | 1291858 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

The DOL needs to stop all that printing of these documents and reports... the mint is running low in ink!

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