Initial Claims Surge To 445K, On Expectations Of 410K, Not Adjusted Claims Surge By 191,686 To 770,413 In One Week

So much for that amazing beat in the last 2010 number in initial claims, which is now proven to have been purely a figment of the BLS' imagination and a whole load of guesstimations. Today's initial claims number throws cold water to all those who expected the trend in claims to be improving. At 445K, this was a huge miss to expectations of 410K, and a major deterioration from last week's (upwardly revised of course) 410K (was 409K before). Elsewhere, continuing claims came at 3,879K on expectations of 4,088K (with the previous naturally revised higher as well from 4,103K to 4,127K). And the kicker: in NSA terms initial claims were a mammoth 770,413, a 191,686 increase in just one week, and the highest NSA number in one year! The result: the spread between SA (3.1%) and NSA (3.8%) unemployment rate jumps to year highs. Of course, the BLS blames the huge disappointment on "paperwork delays", yet blamed nobody for the amazing beats in the end of 2010 which brought the market to a complete frenzy.

Lastly, completing the trifecta of bad data, those on various forms of extended claims jumped by 130K, confirming that we are nowehere close to dealing with the "99 week completion" cliff issue, as ever more people roll off continuing claims.

Comments

[Miramanee]

JOBS. LOL!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMq8Ert1ss0

[Pure Evil]

Or,

Brought the market to a complete orgiastic frenzy!

Kinda reminds me of the reaction when Jim Jeffords jumped ship. The socialists were in orgasmic heaven.

[Sudden Debt]

I THINK I HAVE THE SOLUTION!!

1. Increase DEATH rate

2. Decrease BIRTH rate

3. Increase DEATH rate

4. Decrease BIRTH rate

5. Increase DEATH rate

6. Decrease BIRTH rate

7. Increase DEATH rate

8. Decrease BIRTH rate

9. Increase DEATH rate

10. Decrease BIRTH rate

Follow these 10 steps and the unemployment numbers will go down. If not, start all over again untill there's not a soul left!

[the grateful un...]

the longer you're unemployed the less it matters, interesting. 

[What a mess_man]

Let's see - what do we have here:

• Fisher's Fed speech (The entire FOMC knows the history and the ruinous fate that is meted out to countries whose central banks take to regularly monetizing government debt)
• Margin compression/collapse accelerating
• These ghastly unemployment numbers
• Rating agencies warn on US debt

Definite green close.  If this were a "normal" market (as normal as it gets) we'd be down 400 or so.  And the DJIA would be about 5,000... 

[the grateful un...]

isn't this consistent with what was posted 1/6, with ref to Nicolaus Stifel, that last fridays number would look better than expected, but this week the number would revert to the (worsening) trend? seems like his analysis of the BLS seasonal adjustments is pretty good? (and we are screwed)

[r101958]

Just got my 'green shoots' RIF package today. Along with 100+ others. Wow, sure seems like this recovery is picking up.

[Problem Is]

Of Course December Initial Claims Were Low
How can you get into a State Unemployment office in the last 2 weeks of December when they have 4 paid holidays in 2 weeks (read: Two 3 day work weeks) and all the employees with seniority use vacation and are not there?

Even if you file online, a case work has to process your claim in those 2 weeks to count...

Less Working Days, Way Longer Lines
Even if you wanted to file at the end of December, could you?

Hence January surge....

I Figured It Out
I could have more accurately adjusted December for that...

So where's my fat pay, fat pension, retire at 55 with full fat medical benefits, guaranteed lifetime employment BLS government job?

[r101958]

I have a feeling January is going top be a pretty nasty month.