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Initial Claims Surge To 479K, Trounce Expectations Of 455K, Severe Deterioration From Last Week's 460K
The week ended July 31 saw 479K initial jobless claims, obliterating the expectation of a minor improvement of 455K from the prior week's 460K (revised from 457K). Continuing claims continue rising, and are now at 4537K versus expectations of 4515K. We are certain that this latest horrendous economic data point will be spun positively in 3....2....1.... (in the meantime the ongoing US collapse is about to drag the USDCAD back to parity).
The only silver lining: those who had previously fallen of insurance lists, are now back to collecting subsidies from the government, as the ranks of those collecting EUC and Extended Benefits increased by 257K in the week ended July 17, courtesy of Obama's most recent "communism-lite" stimulus.
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That is one uttbugly report and even Steve LIESman couldn't spin that one. That is just brutal.
NSA down 13, but Extended Benefits UP 197K.
Can't spin this sucker.
Oh yeah? CNBC.com headline,
Weekly Claims Show Surprise Gain in Wobbly Jobs Market, which is almost positive. Keep smilin'.
that is totally deceptive and enough to fool some low brainers. though with that amount of brain activity investing is probably a bad idea.
check the yahoo finance front page. apparently, reporting on european interest rates (i.e., the top headline) is more important to an american-based company (y!) than reporting on american jobs. either that or the jobs report is insignificant. spin away...
certainly validates Rosenberg's comment about the market being completely unprepared for 500K initial claims.
tomorrow is the ultimate test of whether we move from Bizarromundo to Absurdistan or not, or whether we can finally go back to Kansas.
why???
Check your calendar...
Non Farm Payroll
Check here for all the calendar
http://online.barrons.com/public/page/barrons_econoday.html?mod=BOL_hpp_...
More visual calendar - http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
ABC
going back to kansas = market drop/crash ?
Well, nobody saw that coming....NOT
Wait until they add the millions who qualify for the new new extended benefits on the EUC line next week.
@johngaltfla/Tyler Durden
Do you (or anyone else) know if it is true that people can re-enroll in the EUC program? I thought I had read that those who rolled off would not be covered by the extension. I was thinking the growth in EUC may be people that rolled off of regular state UI.
As I understand it, the only people getting the extension are those still under the 99-week limit. Anyone past that is SOL. In CA at least, the extension tiers are granted automatically, i.e. you don't have to reapply (again, under the 99 week limit).
You're talking about something like an extended Tier 4 or Tier 5, or just something for the folks not already at the 80 week mark?
as ECRI suggest, we are about to see claims regularly deep over 500K in a couple of weeks, my guess is that by the end of semptember, we will have over 500K more than three weeks in the row
No, no, no. Don't you listen to the MSM. The ECRI is so yesterday and doesn't accurately forecast the economic sunny skies and pretty flowers (formerly green shoots) being reported in the MSM.
Didn't you get the memo?
<sarcasm>
I think ECRI WLIgr may improve tomorrow - given market performance of late
Jobs may suprise on the upside as today's and last week's claims not in the mix
and the big surprise may be an unemp rate that actually improves as more unemployed fall off the radar and into the abyss
There is no doubt that day to day, the back ground economic indicator noise can be considered inconclusive or fluctuating wildly. However, when you pull back and look at the big picture, it's beginning to look ugly. Back-to-school retail isn't looking very good as well.
How anyone can honestly consider all the trillions of dollars that have been pumped into the economy and we "only" have the current results and still consider things as "OK" is clearly sucking on a conflicted teat attached to a Thorazine drip mixed with government milk.
Heh, the trillions were pumped into the balance sheet of a few non-productive financial companies that were supposed to lend out to productive ones but did not. Thus no recovery.
The direct injection of government hand-out money into the economy is minor, to barely keep some folks alive in "their" homes. [in fact they are just slaves keeping the place in good order for their master]
I did my part and cleaned out all the cob webs and shampooed the carpets. When is master arriving?
His praetorian guard will let you know while violating 3rd amendment of the old constitution.
Now seriously, there's a bad future in the making right before our eyes.
Make no mistake about it, all of those trillions went to prop up Govt, over 80%, and now another 26Bill to payoff teachers unions and prop up failing states, the payoff was worse than the UE extensions, it's a mad, mad, mad mad world!
Moral Hazard: The Fastest Way To Destroy The Longstanding Judeo-Christian Work Ethic, The American Middle-Class and Usher In The Brave New World
Brought to you by...
The Military-Industrial-Government-Corporate Media-Banking Complex
Rated - R(etrograde)
And Bloomberg's comes out today as strong on home building...???
nice cat...
its not unusual for ECRi to improve a bit, before going down again. But ISM and claims still have a lot of catching up to do. BTW, i cant wait for the spin when (and if) ECRI improves to say -10,4%...
It is amazing to witness the extreme spin applied by the believers, of which there are many. Fighting the desire of the larger entity to see nearly all information in a narrow range of interpretations (every thing's pretty much coming up roses) is only going to kill you short term. That's where the expression "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" comes from.
And for the last 6 weeks, there has been a stead fast desire to ignore the bad news. The market suffers from confirmation bias just as individuals do. Whether this comes from a true sense of sunny skies among the population or the relentless drive of "don't fight the Fed" (helped tremendously by stealth injections of Fed liquidity and out-right market manipulation) along with money manager myopic self interest above client well being, the result is the same. A drive upward that defies all reason and logic.
The only consolation is that the eventual stabilizing/equalizing drive down will be just as fierce and relentless.
You know. Im an asset manager, and i have kept cash at 50-70% since january. Sometimes, I am really just thinking about finding another carreer, cuz this simply doesnt make sense anymore. I miss the times when if you knew your stuff and did your homework, you could make some money on the market. I am still hoping that one sunny morning I will wake up and the markets will be reasonably rational again and I can do my thing.
Go to sleep, sleeping beauty. Wake up in about 2 years.
Agree, and now that we know the markets are gamed it is time to get out 100% and look for other oppertunities. Makes no sense being in it unless you have inside connections and know what is being moved this day... or that day.
All of the "true believers" must worship at the alter of Norman Vincent Peale.
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/steadfast
Yes . . . and no. We're all a bit bipolar here. On one hand there is a meme that we're all currency traders, such that when the dollar weakens the markets are goosed. On the other hand, we decry the fact that bad news does not always make the market head South.
I wasn't ruling "we" out in the least. I was simply talking about the market surge over the past 6 weeks.
I don't think people expect bad news to always push the market south. What's frustrating is when bad news pushes the market north. A recent example is the poor (not bad but poor) GDP of Friday resulting in a flat market Friday and the 2% lift on Monday. On what exactly? I've been in the business for 25 years and I can say that I've seen crazy markets before, markets that defy gravity or go up when they "should" go down. But never like we've had over the past 3 or 4 years, since early 2007.
I do see a consistent issue among people who come to ZH and attack ZHer's as stupid traders. Part of the bias of believers in a recovering economy, and thus the market, is that they assume anyone with a negative view towards the news flow and underlying economic conditions "must" be invested the same way, meaning short.
That is hardly the case with many here on ZH based upon their words. Most are either out of the market entirely or trading the market up and down. I didn't really see many people begin to say they were short until this final leg up began to form last week, only to be "surprised by a Monday 2% lift that defies explanation.
Even betting that QE 2.0 will raise the market defies logic. All you need do is look at where we are headed, look at Japan, etc. It doesn't make sense and this is why many people are extremely frustrated and angry. I have a few friends who actually work in two of the big Wall Street houses and the buzz is that everyone really does understand that we've entered Alice's Wonderland and they all feel they should make hay before reality hits.
I've concluded that most suffer from the same confirmation bias here at ZH. We seek confirmation for our "rational" analysis that the markets can only go down given the current fundamentals. And yet, markets keep going up. So we are stupid in a way... I surely feel more stupid by the day. And paranoid.
Until the day the shit hits the fan. Will it?
May I suggest your use of absolutes isn't warranted. I don't believe people think the market can only go down given current fundamentals. I believe people think it shouldn't only go up.
That's the point. If the markets were trending sideways or up and back down, it would be somewhat rational. But there are several/multiple disconnects that are screaming that something is seriously wrong out there. Even the dumbed down MSM is starting to run stories questioning the relentless less-than-good news and the disconnect from this less-than-good news and a rising market.
Whether those stories are reverse psychology or an honest attempt to understand, the fact is easy to see. There is a huge disconnect and it's growing. And it's very similar to late 2007 when it was becoming clear the wheels were coming off and yet the market pushed higher and higher. There has been enough evidence presented over the past 2 years to indicate that this was/is artificially induced.
As I said in another thread, don't mistake anger or outrage with a trading position. Most people here are angry. Most are also either out of the market entirely or are trading the market up and down. There are not many who are steadfast short, meaning they have been short for a year or 6 months, and they're holding their guns. Yet many people who read the comments left on ZH believe this to be the case. It is an incorrect inference that isn't backed by the very comments they cite.
I believe the upward bias of this market is reinforcing the confirmation bias, so it keeps on fooling us, creating a self-destructive feedback loop.
Thinking along those same lines...What if the Fed/WH manages to ooze and sleaze and deal a way through this mess that avoids an inescapable shock.
It could happen? Couldn't it?
There is no doubt that they can delay and possibly avoid the worst effects by stretching out the collapse over years/decades. But collapse there will be, even if it's in slow motion.
Agreed, CD. My comment was intended to suggest that -- because most of us here recognize that things no longer make sense under older, "established" experiences -- rather than express <surprise> <shock> <dismay> at the lack of what we used to used to perceive as logic, we need to spend more and more time doping out the new paradigm, or What Works in Wonderland.
Stop using that sarcasm tag line. Yes, there are some who will not perceive sarcasm, and complain, but your use of the tag just protects them from being outed as ninnies.
Otherwise, we'll end up having to service the imbeciles with <irony> <sadness> <pity> etc.
Well said ! <earnest>
Kryten: "Time to engage panic mode, panic circuits engaged...Augghh!"
Yes sir, right away sir. Your word is my command. Sorry for having offended you.
<sarcasm> <pithy dialogue> <irony> <bleeding asshole from your reaming>
Major :>)
Now, now, if the illlustrious CD starts <>'ing, then sooner or later more will follow, and then someone will start using little yellow faces, and then some will use faces that move, etc. I'm just bitching because I'm to lazy to start down this path to help ninnies. <throws up hands> <mock despair>
Oh, go do what you want! <turns and walks away>
I was having fun with you ZK.
Actually I made the same comment last week to MsCreant, about the need to use the tags because the subtlety is lost on many. I suspect it has a lot to do with all the newbies and trolls on ZH.
ZH has changed a lot over the past 9 months. Back then, the comment section was usually separated out into the anons and the registered regulars, with a few non regulars drifting in and out. But I would say over 50% of the comments were left by the hard core ZH center, the so called regulars.
That has now changed. Many regulars are gone, having left for a variety of reasons. But based upon some private e-mail conversations I've had with some of them, a sizable number have left because ZH has turned into a free fire zone of trolls, yahoo transplants, naval gazers and those who wish to learn and grow. It can be discouraging for many. I know many people won't leave comments simply because they don't wish to be savaged.
The result is that the ZH comment section has lost it's diversity and has become more narrow minded. Sad really.
Just funnin' as well.
Success draws all sorts, naturally. But the good news is that if Tyler puts up a Middle Eastern post, most of the crazies flock to it like a school of piranha sensing an overboard cow.
You talkin' to me?
Are you the cow or the piranha?
I am the swamp fox. What kind of meat are you?
CD, I registered late but one has to take me at my word that I have followed ZH from the start (cf. Tom Hill in the wine bulletin board world). I truly don't have a lot of substantive commentary to add, I used to work in management consulting and am an "Ivy" grad so I have some insight and such. But my chosen life path(s) have not drawn me into these highly remunerative fields. I agree that ZH has changed, and not necessarily for the better. That said, in my experience, every public forum has a certain shelf life and then it needs to be replaced by another forum which hews closer to the original design.
Personally, I "read" in the strong sense much less of ZH than I did at the beginning or even six months ago. There was a lot of debate over whether ZH should be descriptive or proscriptive and I think that the free rein given to respondents is a nod towards the latter, productive or not. Personally, as a very analytic person, I miss the more dispassionate, fact based and/or solidly grounded conjecture based presentations and/or argumentative positions. I do not want to suggest that ZH has been co-opted by its own success, however, there's been more "throw shit against the wall and see what sticks" than perhaps desirable. I am also a fan of reasoned debate over emotive response so the "bitchez(s)" comments are kinda a waste of bandwidth, although they may make people feel good. Nothing especially wrong with that.
Basically, as far as i can tell, ZH is close to running its course as a force of good and it is up to its inheritors to pay adequate homage to the legacy they inherit. Whatever form that may take.
Sincerely,
Marc Hanes
Initial claims-------this is the number of "new" people climing their unemployment benefits ...right????
What is interesting is that EURUSD has started to rally on the back of poor US numbers. This is of huge significance as the whole "flight to safety" concept relies on a strong Dollar for Bernanke to water down....
The USDEUR still has to shake out some of that COT data...
Don't the ungrateful unemployed wretches know that we're in RECOVERY, dammit?
Apparently the Obama's are living like we have recovered!!!!! A seperate plane to fly the dog!!!!!
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2010/08/04/2010-08-04_material_girl_...
"Separate plane to fly the dog" (re: Michelle trip to spain)? If Imelda Marcos were still alive she'd be one of the "Friends" along for the free ride. Compare shoe collections anyone.
This report will mean little. The report that should be posted daily is the one that shows the intent on the dow rise for the day.
Actually in this crazy market this might me interpreted as good news, becouse it makes even more likely that another stimulus is on the way. Now even bad news is good news.
@alien
Exactly -- Dow 11K on this heartwarming news.
Alien, too much time on the space ship, this "rally on bad news" has been the story during the whole dead cat bounce rally since glorious march 09.
Coming to a city near you....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=On3UO5VG5OY
Alien indeed...
All the newly unemployed will enjoy food inflation, I'm sure. Benron is probably sporting wood at the idea.
Don't forget about surging fuel costs.
Because voters in November will just love paying $4 a gallon for gas and $5 for a loaf of bread! There may not be any Democrats left in Congress by next January
Here's hoping there aren't any republicans either.
Of all the shit going on these days, one of the few encouraging things (to me) is the increasing numbers of people that are acknowledging that this isn't about republicans vs democrats. Neither party has been doing what's in our best interests for a long time.
Dump ALL Incumbents!
Please please start with Peter Stark. What a jerk !
To bad that with the power monopoly of the 2 headed 1 party there is about nothing we can do with the ballot box. Got the choice of Kang or Kodos. And the party will not allow a real party to emerge. Will see swarms of bureaucratic dogs of war released on them.
The only vote we have it to be punched with the left or the right hand.
totally true, civil disobedience, revolution or hunkering down or emigration perhaps the only choices left
No doubt. Curing deflation on the backs of the poor non-stockholders? What could be better? Especially when they can be quieted by subsidizing them with borrowed money, as in
FOOD STAMP USE HITS RECORD
In addition...
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2010/08/05/food_st...
"He's Brilliant"!!!!!!
Just a matter of time before the "event" is triggered. The Fed can't expand their BS by $5 trillion in new debt while the S&P is over 800 (maybe 900). We need a serious "crisis" to justify this kind of bailout.
On a brighter note, I'm heading to Chase today to start withdrawing all my money. $9,900 at a time.
101 good luck with that...I am sure you will find they request you make an appointment 1 week in advance...for that "large sum of money"?
Who said cash ain't King...it must be if the banks don't want you to have it...
Enter gold bugs: They don't want you yo have cash because you will buy gold with it...
I'm a gold bug, and I don't think that is why. It is because of the fractional reserve system that has been twisted to the point that it is almost a "no-reserve" system.
There's no almost. Even if you have a 10% reserve requirement (haha!):
Bank A: $1 reserve - creates $10 out of thin air, lends it out to customer A. Customer A buys a widget off customer B, who deposits his $10 in bank B.
Bank B: $10 reserve - creates $100 out of thin air, lends it out to customer B. Customer B buys a widget off customer A, who deposits $100 in bank A.
Bank A: $101 reserve - creates $1000 out of thin air, lends it to customer C etc etc etc
The reserve requirements might as well be based on number of unicorns on deposit for all the difference it makes to ultimately how much money is 'created'.
Your math is off. If the situation you give were possible, the reserve requirements would have to be a negative percentage.
For Bank B, if $10 is deposited, and $100 lent, the reserves would be $10 - $100 = -$90. The reserve requirements, low as they are(1%) are still not negative.
No, the fractional reserve system allows banks to create and lend 'money' they don't have. That's why it's so brilliant. It's like naked shorting, only with dollar credit.
Well, they still have the option of printing money off-the-books, as if it never were. And the logistics side is taken care of - Benlicopters will be throwing money from high above while the MSM will declare it's an act of God.
Dude, if you withdraw money just below the "notification" level, that doesn't mean you won't be flagged. The teller/head teller/manager just needs to suspect you're trying to circumvent the notification to trigger the filing of a suspicious activity report. Plus they look at the history of your account as well. A few withdrawals added together for more than $10,000 inside of a few weeks will ring the alarm bells.
After all, only terrorists and mafia use cash. At least that's what the bank employees are trained to think. <sarcasm>
Guess I should scroll down and check all the replies before adding my 2 cents (see below). BTW, CD, I read your 5 part article on "Life, The Universe, and Everything" (or something to that effect <grin>) and thought it was very good. Have to admit, though, that I still cling to my "it's all going to hell and I can't do anything about it" excuse for not doing anything and telling myself that it's o.k. because I won't make a difference. I suppose that makes me worse than those who lie to themselves but don't realize it, but it is so much easier to just give up. Ah, well.
Thank you for your surprisingly honest self assessment. That alone tells me you're well along the path of actualization and empowerment. It always feels worst just before you can do the most.
The problem I run into all the time with myself is that I've been trained and conditioned all my life to see all that power and force directed towards me and me only because I see myself as an individual, all alone in the universe. Once I remember that I'm connected to the larger whole and that I alone possess all the power that's require to accomplish anything I wish to do, my fears of being overwhelmed disappear. Because suddenly I'm facing a 100 million man army with 7 billion.
Game over. It's that simple, which is why it seems to hard. Because it requires us to reject all our programming, something we are programmed to believe if done will strip us bare and make us defenseless. That's the secret. We are conditioned to believe we are powerless.
This is done because we are all powerful. When facing an all powerful force such as us, the only way to defeat us is to convince us to never even pick up our weapons and realize our own power. Defeated before we even begin. Our own tremendous weight is very effectively used against us.
You know your self actualized when your free of the good opinion of others...
I am NOT what I think I am, I'm NOT what YOU think I am -- I am what I think YOU think I am.
I cashed a check once for about 6k..
The teller was asking me all kinds of questions. She wanted to give me a cashiers check.. Kept asking things like, are you buying something?
I finally told her: "I'm diversifying out of digits"
She went and had a talk with the manager.. Indeed they would rather have had notice, but I was lucky and they had enough money in the box for me..
In a small town, such as the one I live in, they recognize me as the Doctor's husband (collecting coins!) -- no need to worry about their paranoia.
On a brighter note, I'm heading to Chase today to start withdrawing all my money. $9,900 at a time.
Won't work. The "Thought Crime" police will get you. You see, if you withdraw less than $10,000 at a time to avoid the reporting requirements by the bank to Big Brother, that is also a reportable event!!! Yes, indeed. If you withdrew only $100/day for 100 days with the intent of avoiding the reporting, you would be reported. (Don't ask me how I know this :P ).
Anyone "in da bidness" must take the mandatory Anti Money Laundering (AML) training. And we're indoctrinated into this thinking. We're even told "Don't worry if the transaction doesn't exactly fit any of the red flags. Feel the force Luke. If you sense something is wrong in the force or the transaction, call your compliance/AML department and pass the buck to them, meaning alert them to that dirty rotten terrorist who you suspect was wearing the dynamite belt under the 3 piece suit. "
Or something like that, minus the dynamite. :>)
If that's not possible, at least transfer it to a smaller regional bank, like Mechanic's or something.
Who needs jobs when we can pump the stock market instead? Why, all those profits will just trickle right down in no time.
But wait....all week Steve Liesman and the gang at CNBC keep telling us that the worst is behind us and I should be investing in the market. I'm confused. The President of the United States also said we are on the road to recovery. I don't understand?
Buy the dips! This is an excellent time to add to your holdings! Little Johny's College Fund is just sitting there. What a golden opportunity to add some real value - JPM at 41 (even after a massive dilution), GOOG at $500 and don't forget to get some PCLN and AMZN too. By the end of the year, you can be rich! Rich I tell ya. BUY! BUY! BUY!
(Sorry about this but when I saw Cramer's picture I just started chanelling the man himself)
Isn't Cramer ads on Zero Hedge pretty much the ultimate proof that insanity is the only remaining reality?
If They Can’t Afford Wheat Let Them Buy Real Estate? Why the Price of Food Will Guarantee a Chinese Real Estate Crash
China has purchased more U.S. corn this year than at any point since 1995 as soaring domestic prices and rising needs for livestock feed have boosted China’s demand for corn from the world’s top exporter.
One cargo of U.S. corn has already landed in China and started unloading and two to three more are scheduled to begin loading at U.S. ports this week, tempering at least some fears that China could not take delivery of the corn.
Only a month has passed since these articles were published and yet wheat prices have risen almost 50% from their lows, while corn and rice prices closely followed
If They Can’t Afford Wheat Let Them Buy Real Estate? Why the Price of Food Will Guarantee a Chinese Real Estate Crash
Eric de Carbonel, over at www.marketskeptics.com has been saying for quite a while now that far more paper food has been sold than real food that can be delivered. At least that's my interpretation of it.
Soybeans in backwardation etc. Now wheat has really jumped. He could be onto something.
Russia ceasing wheat export...temporarily?
Well, since that doesn't look too well, we obviously need to come up with a new metric. Something along the lines of Unemployment Confidence Index that could be nudged in the right direction with all the possible Birth/Death and Hedonist corrections.
As in 'How many unemployed are sure about receiving their welfare check next month'?
Or removing all the unemployed who day traded at least one day last month. They worked (although GS took their paycheck).
Well, the current Administration had better start getting used to the term "Obamaville" as the updated version of Hooverville!
Go long in Teepee Futures!
so... s&p up by 20 by the end of the day then?
+1 If the number were a positive surprise by 2k, ES would be up 10 points at least. This is a negative 14k surprise, amidst all of the other deflationary data, and the ES is only down 5 points as I type. Certainly has the feel for an early morning reversal, not that I'm buying or advocating anyone else to buy. Stay the hell out of these shark infested waters.
Market goes only with the probability of Fed QE.
Minimum wage was forced to rise by 40% over three years while we were at employment peaks. Add the matching FICA for employers and the increase is closer to 50%.
Think about that. For small businesses, one of your most expensive resources rises by nearly 50% in cost.
If that had been gasoline, we know what would have happened to the economy.
But it was labor, and no one seems to even want to consider the possibility of what triggered a major wave of instability in the profits of small business, which as we all know, the rest of this nation's business is balanced upon.
Eliminate the Bush Wage Increases, and keep the Bush Tax Cuts, and we would see hiring.
And if you didn't want to take a job for less, that is fine too. But we need to end the long term unemployment as well.
Then step back and watch how capitalism can recover.
"Welcome to the Recovery"...
You're welcome. - Tim Geithner
Good morning all,
Don't know if you caught "Howard Davidowitz Discusses Retail Sales: Taking Stock w/ Pimm Fox" yesterday, but this is a great listen - from an old timer. Thoroughly enjoyable, and bear uplifting.
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/Markets/Analyst_Calls/vRSk1bnpDIfc.mp3
Edit: great line out of guest when asked about his thoughts on QE - "Free lunch, pay for dinner!" Guest presents a very honest assessment in the same vein as Meridith Whitney, et. al.
But Trichet says 'Indicators are quite bullish'!
Maybe he meant 'bullshit'.
Numbers got worse? no problem, market should rise with higher expectation of Fed QE.
"Communism-lite" my ass. Obama is just an ordinary capitalist professional politician as any other.
I'm sick of this Cold War era "ideological war" garbage.
If you're feeling nostalgic with this naphthalin-smelling ideological hysteria, get a DeLorean time machine and go back to 1981 and the first Reagan years.
Indeed. The oligarchs aren't feeling any genuine pinch. Even the whining about not continuing the Bush tax cuts is nothing more than shedding crocodile tears, as behind the scenes the oligarchs chortle that no move is being made to restore the marginal tax rates to the pre-Reagan levels.
And as they pat themselves on the back they are donating their fortunes to "charity" with onset of old age. Trying to buy their way into heaven?
"Faith" without Works is dead. Ye are saved only by the Grace of God, not works, lest ye boast.
Amen.
Obama might be a somewhat fascist, but he isn't anything like "communist-lite".
If you're sick of the ideological war, stop calling obama a capitalist, because that's not what he or anyone else in our government is.
Obamatron acts like he's the scond coming of FDR -- NOT that that in any way, shape or form should be considered a good thing!
Hey, hey, hey, that Trichet guy just said something that should be good for 200 on the Dow:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Trichet-says-indicators-apf-3044952431.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Each time numbers are released the "response" becomes a non-event because of previous pumping of indices (and stocks). This morning the indices ramped up in europe "in expectation of the ECB rate decision" (big surprise there!), to fall back to the pre-ramp levels after the initial claims number was released. Result: nothing happened.
State of Oregon was in panic yesterday when "glitch" prevented unemployment "checks" to be deposited into UE filers bank accounts. They were up all night working with banks to make sure people got "their" money by today. Folks, we are one missed unemployment check away from riots. I was kinda curious to see what woulda happened if those "checks" didn't get delivered.
So the wheat or food shortages, gas at $4/gallon won't really matter if the 4.5 million don't get their UE checks or the 40 million dont get their food stamps. Ain't nobody gonna have any money anyway.
That is interesting, especially since my employer informed us today that our checks would be processed today due to a "power outage".
What state are you located in? That is interesting. Is your employer private sector or gov? I have been wondering where these bankrupt states are getting the money to pay UE and SNAP. I know some of them have been borrowing money from FEDs, but since the FEDs are broke, how long can this scam keep going?
Irony, FEDs, yes, they are well fed as the masses go unemployed and desperate.
have a look at this guys: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1559722922&play=1 actually a rarely good interview
the whole 70% or whatever move is what i call a BS Kicker (http://thedailycable.com/?p=283). we will get hammered. time will come.
/me is buying this dip....
I am so sick of this BS positive Barry spin. Yeah, they took 800 jobs from Canada and moved them to Michigan. Never mind that Detroit and SE Michigan home values are still plummeting, jobs are practically non-existent unless you are in a specialized field or want to make 5 bucks an hour at McDonalds. How dare they do a PR event with the UAW touting growth meanwhile it's a wasteland around it and ONLY GETTING WORSE! What a joke.
Haven't you heard? It dosent matter. Bernanke is pressing the pump button as we speak. Rally on Mein friends
The new normal is "sell on the rumor, buy on the news".
I fully expect month's headline to be
New UE claims to see new 6-Month Low as forms shortage confirmed
Ah yes, farcism's new normal. Adam, Don't give 'em any ideas! This is how our modern "leaders" fix problems. With total bullshoot. Nothing real about anything anymore. The rabbit hole gets deeper.
crap. I forgot the <sarcasm> flag.
lmao! that is brilliant!
Seems to fit with retail sales today..
a total of 12 misses, 1 in-line and 9 beats
Again ZH Hype on these reports.
We have seen similar behavior over the past year and there was no effect on markets or policy. None.
Also, we have talked about the many problems with these reports which puts an error band on SA of about 20K (Noise). The report does not provide a good overall barameter of unemployment. So we must include this as only one item in a basket of unemployment indicators.
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On another note:
They have announced, no less in mainstream media, that SS is in the RED.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/05/news/economy/social_security_trustees_re...
So much for the CBO estimates. I think they were off by 8 years. When the revenues started to drop (2008) a CBO report gave an estimate of 2018 for break even. So we now have a feel for the CBO accuracy. The CBO is so optimistic in their forecasts that any warning is really an obituary.
The Senators have known about this outcome for about 4 months now.
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Back to CNN:
There is some serious BS in the piece.
They have the system turning around when the demographics really gets ugly. Actually, it gave everyone a good laugh.
This is also interesting:
"The fund is a $2.5 trillion surplus that workers and employers started paying into the system after Social Security was reformed in 1983. It becomes "exhausted" when it reaches a point when only 76% of benefits can be paid out."
Well there is no surplus, just SS bonds, which need new revenue to be redeemed. Essentually, worthless. I am desparately trying to uncover if any SS bonds were ever redeemed. I do not really see this. So any SS shortfall will just be paid out of the general fund.
Why would it become exhausted if only 76% of benefits can be paid out? It is a pay as you go system which holds no assets only debt. It becomes exhausted now!!!!!
You cannot take revenue (tax), real worth, spend it, and then replace it with debt which is redeemed from the same revenue tax base. Especially, for a country which is so in debt it cannot support its currency.
The reality is the shortfall will have to be paid out of new revenue. There is no need to redeem a SS bond, when payment comes from the same source.
Mark Beck
Some of these comments come off as really hateful to the unemployed like me. I paid into the system. It's insurance against being laid off. It's not welfare. It's thinking like this that turns people immediately off. I've been coming to this site since its inception. I just don't post much, and I believe that the comment section has become increasing hostile as of late. The fact is that the cost of living is much different in some areas than others and not everyone just wants to move away from their families and life long friends so wage increases are neccesary. In places like North Carolina $10/hour might be sufficient but it's not in the Philadelphia region if you have a family. So to say that we should repeal them and at the same time extend tax cuts for the rich who don't need it and aren't spending it like they are supposed to is in my view, destructive. I would also like to know with favcts and figures how these wage increases caused the recession. I thought it was caused by excessive risk driven by greed on part of the investment banks. To blame it on the poor is a cop-out that serves no one but the banks and multi-national corporations. I also think that the facts are skewed and that it was a $1 increase from $6.15 to 7.15 which is hardly 40 percent. I'm going to start saying more because I think much of this is driven by politics, and I mean the hostility and hyperbole. BTW, I wanted to say something to CD: when you first started psoting I was a little unnerved by your comments but now they are some of my favorite comments and to keep up the great posts. I'm not being sarcastic, at all.
great post! i think it would be hard to find facts and figures on any sort of reason as to how increased wages (which did not rise as much as inflation in most companies, obviously easily proved even with the most basic of economic theory) caused the recession/or part one of the depression (depending on how the next year or so plays out). it was here a few months ago, if im not mistaken, it was pointed out how much of the stock market rise can be attributed to personal lending since the 70s, and you gotta sit and think that most of the inflation has been caused by spending and lending, which in turn was spent again. so yes, wages don't increase enough.
generally, with my many criticism of our tax system, i think that generally there are things you guys should take on board. look at the way we treat social security. sure, most people dole bludge, but we have no limits on how long you can apply for, and in times of crisis its bad to have a limit, because people such as yourself suffer, who in a few years will be working and paying back much more to the system. I actually wrote an opinion piece on this recently. If you are interested have a look - http://thedailycable.com/?p=319. I basically compared the two tax structures, which are very different, and how one can learn from the other. our tax sucks, so does yours. but maybe there is middle ground? who knows. good luck in your jobseeking rick!
Interesting SP500 chart ...
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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