Initial Claims YoYo From Upward Revised 457K To 415K On Expectations Of 420K

Tyler Durden's picture

The weekly initial claims number has become nothing short of a yoyo. The volatility in the data series, which is supposed to be erased through the seasonal adjustments has hit another year high, and to anyone trying to extrapolate any forecast based on a number that has moved between 380K and 457K in one month, our condolences. According to the BLS initial claims dropped by 42K from an upward revised 457K (454K previously) to 415K, on expectations of 420K. Non-seasonally adjusted claims came in as well, but by roughly half this amount, dropping from 486K to 460K. Continuing claims came at 3,925K on expectations of 3,950K (with the previous revised, naturally higher from 3,991K to 4,009K). EUCs dropped by 130K in the week ended January 15 as wave after wave of people now hits the 99 week cliff of all jobless extensions.

Full dramamine inducing report

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papaswamp's picture

Tomorrows report will be key to see if NILF continues to rise.

66Sexy's picture

do these numbers even matter anymore? i suppose anyone can pull figures out of their ass and call them significant; same principle as fiat currency.. we have a fiat economy.

papaswamp's picture

I think the NILF says volumes about the real employment picture...probably why its the very last of the 'A' tables. NILF has risen 17% in the last 10 yrs where the population has increased 9%. Thus almost twice as many people aren't working as the population grows placing a larger burden on those who do work as well as social programs. Eventually something will have to give.

But maybe it all doesn't matter....


equity_momo's picture

Ben Shalom has an app for that.

whatsinaname's picture

btw..wonder if there are are some massive derivatives tied to a certain level of the S&P500 which TPTB want to achieve w/o which it would be a disaster. These derivatives may have been written in the cocky and golden times of 1995-2008. BRK already has something similar ?

Astute Investor's picture

Follow the bouncing ball.

101 years and counting's picture

once you fire everyone except the bare minimum, there just aren't many left to fire.  well, thats the thought.  but, american companies keep finding 460K people to fire every week. 


prophet_banker's picture

here in wisconsin, many of the large corporations are constantly hiring / firing people, a merry go round between them and all the temp services that seem to be increasing in number.  Maybe it's the new norm, in order to report hiring, they fire

blindfaith's picture

But, But, But the A.D.P. numbers were much better....lots of folks working now.  Why I see snow shoveling job offers all over the place and in cash too!

Id fight Gandhi's picture

The mendacity continues. Notice the up revision, again. Me thinks snow helps keep claims down. Should keep them down this week too. Then watch out.

Caviar Emptor's picture

So new jobless continue to yo-yo in a stubbornly elevated range. 

But one thing has not varied: productivity and unit labor costs. The vector is steady down and now accelerating. Now the Fed and it's little minions would like you to believe that it's all about our fantastic progress in automation and our wonderfully efficient US corporations.

Here's another interpretation: it's all cost cutting. Corporations can't pass on their higher input costs (as we've been discussing). In response they turn immediately to cost cutting through layoffs, offshoring and cutting hours pay and benefits. So everyone left works the same or harder for less. And in a distressed jobs market all new hires accept lower pay for more work. It's a reflection of what Rick Santelli would call "structural issues" but what I call "the downsizing of America". It continues.

cossack55's picture

But isn't the "downsizing of amerika" being offset by the "supersizing" at the goldern arches?  Seems to me amerikans could do with a little downsizing.

Caviar Emptor's picture

Excellent insight! We had the 'supersize-me!' economy in the 2000s. And we got obese and hooked on steroids. Now we got the downsizing but we're gettin' saggy. If you believe in Ben's Excellent Plan, pretty soon we'll be feeling the effects of all his trillions trickling down to us. It's the 'Trickle-me!' economy ! 

cossack55's picture

Did Elmo work at 33 Liberty after his Sesame gig? Makes sense.

oogs66's picture

Why lay people off when they are all just working part time with no benefits?  Just shrink hours. Its a free option for employers, and the economists just refuse to adjust their thinking that 400k is a 'good' number. 

Cursive's picture


Brilliant analysis. We need to see the hours worked from this report.

prophet_banker's picture

good point, i've seen the statistics that when they claim 8 million job losses in a few years, it was really a loss of 10 million full time jobs with 2 million new part time jobs.....

ColonelCooper's picture

Any way to see payroll tax revenues YOY?  It would pretty much cut through the bullshit wouldn't it?

r101958's picture

Yes, agreed Caviar. I was 'downsized' (off-shored) as of the 1st of February.

papaswamp's picture

It will be interesting to see if there is a huge backlog due to weather. next 2 weeks might show a sudden upward sweep as several offices were closed.

RobotTrader's picture

Proof that the Plutocrats can move the number around anywhere they wish.

Totally fabricated.

Just like they can move stocks around at will, up or down.

Depending upon what part of the "Wash, Rinse, Repeat" cycle they are in.

PigMen are either jacking up stocks to burn the short sellers, or they are smashing the tape with huge bear raids so they can buy more assets on the cheap.

Constant wealth re-distribution.

Rich keep getting richer.

papaswamp's picture

That pretty much sums up the whole game.

BlackSea's picture

How true Robo.

And how it eats away at the moral fabric of a nation...

Enough sentimentality though, back to reality now.

youngman's picture

"the downsizing of America". It continues.""

I agree.....and the devaluing of America.....wages..salaries are and should be dropping....we have to get competitive to the rest of the world....which to me means a 20% drop....we are smarter and will have a wage/salary structure...but we have got way out of whack...when we bust the pensions and unions get realistic...then we will start to see the rebuildingof the me that is 5 years off though.....lots of pain first...right now we are still inflating the balloon....but its getting close to popping..

prophet_banker's picture

your endorsement of the race to the bottom is insane.  Reminds me of the Australian farmer, to the economist, "so if we import less, and export everything we produce, we'll be better off" - "so if everybody makes less, we'll be better off" -bs


"in times of upheaval/crisis, wealth is transferred, and not lost"

tmosley's picture

But Smailes told me everything was getting better!

Judge Smales's picture

I told you nothing of the sort, sir, and I NEVER slice.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

The American Staffing Association Index increased 1% to 89 for the week ending January 16. This was 13% above a year ago, but about 5% below 2007 levels. Seasonality is no longer an issue. This is the closest so far the index has come to pre-recession levels.

papaswamp's picture

Hey part time and temp is in. Lowes is laying off 1700 and shifting to increasing their weekend part time staff. That is how companies can reduce costs in the face of either poor sales or higher product costs (or both).

Spalding_Smailes's picture

................ " U.S. railroads registered more traffic gains in 2011’s third week, but they were more of the modest variety, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR). During the week ending Jan. 22, they originated 282,837 carloads, up 1.5 percent, and 213,206 intermodal loads, up 6.2 percent compared with traffic from the same week last year.

Container volume rose 6.8 percent and trailer volume increased 2.8 percent, while only 11 of 20 carload commodity groups registered gains. Industrial and automotive traffic only increased 3 percent and 2 percent, respectively, but railroads are preparing for accelerating demand in both sectors, said Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc. analysts in their weekly “Rail Flash” report. " ...................


Astute Investor's picture

It doesn't appear that car loadings of employed people registered any gains....

Spalding_Smailes's picture

.......... " An index measuring truck tonnage volumes in December reached its highest level since mid-2008, the ATA reported Tuesday.


The trade group said in a release that its advance index of for-hire truck tonnage jumped 2.2 percent last month after falling a revised 0.6 percent in November. The index is adjusted for seasonal variations.

Now at 111.6, with the year 2000 equal to 100, the index is at its highest level since September 2008.

Tonnage was up 4.2 percent from December 2009. " .............................



Truck tonnage index hits highest level since mid-2008 

Spalding_Smailes's picture

What's ConTex index doing ?


New ConTex is a Container Ship Time Charter Assessment Index. It is a company-independent index which is calculated as an equivalent weight of percentage change from six ConTex assessments, which are for the classes of Type 1100 TEU, Type 1700 TEU, Type 2500 TEU, Type 2700, Type 3500 and Type 4250. The index starting point is 1000. New ConTex is compiled by a group of international operating brokers and is updated twice a week. The data source is Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS), the Hamburg Shipbroker's Association. As of May 11 2010, ConTex index expanded to include new size ranges (Type 2700, Type 3500 and Type 4250) and was renamed New ConTex.


Or .........

New ConTex is a Container Ship Time Charter Assessment Index. It is a company-independent index which is calculated as an equivalent weight of percentage change from six ConTex assessments, which are for the classes of Type 1100 TEU, Type 1700 TEU, Type 2500 TEU, Type 2700, Type 3500 and Type 4250. The index starting point is 1000. New ConTex is compiled by a group of international operating brokers and is updated twice a week. The data source is Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS), the Hamburg Shipbroker's Association. As of May 11 2010, ConTex index expanded to include new size ranges (Type 2700, Type 3500 and Type 4250) and was renamed New ConTex.

prophet_banker's picture

i've heard reports of local trucking companies turning away new business, because in this enviroment, it is too risky to borrow money to buy new trucks to support the expansion that may be just temporary, so they turn away new business rather than expand

Sophist Economicus's picture

This is good news!   All news is good news!   It's a beautiful day!   We're great!

razorthin's picture

BLS must stand for bull loser shit

aus_punter's picture

dxy having a pretty reasonable bounce of big support - dont think it bodes well for risk assets today

RunningMan's picture

I'm not a fan of cost cutting, but numbers are numbers and they either 'work' or they don't in terms of the P&L. Companies took headcount reductions and pay cuts (we had both) during the crisis, as it seriously looked like the end of the world was coming. Now, it just looks like we are in a stalled economy. No one wants to spend - consumers or companies - because they are afraid of a prolonged depression during which they'll need cash to ride out the storm. 2011 already looks to be the second worst year (2008 was the worst by far) for services. But I read that the rich are spending supposedly because of the wealth effect (stocks up, people with investments feel rich). If that's true, it is clearly not enough spending to provide employment gains. This means the trickle down policies of the Fed and Treasury with fiscal insanity through POMO and market ramps are not working. And now, Ben et al are backed into a corner. Brilliant play by the banks now paying record bonuses. They took risk on the way up and cashed out, now taking free money on the way down and cashed out, and now just hold the system hostage.

sodbuster's picture

Two years, trillions of dollars, and we still get +400k initial claims! Only idiots would continue to pursue the same course of action, and expect different results. Oh that's right! It's not about employment- it's to keep insolvent banks afloat- I keep forgetting.

RunningMan's picture

Sod - agreed; this is what I don't understand. While stimulus takes time to work through the system, clearly the Fed/Treasury have been at this long enough (2+ years) that if it were going to work, we would see it. If this is the fix, then the cure is worse than the original ailment. We have ended up with MORE debt, MORE regulation (but not good regulation), MORE government, but LESS employment. It is not working.

Bodhi's picture

I filed my UE claim last week.  I hope I wasn't seasonal adjusted out.

Johnny Lawrence's picture

Snow was cited last week for the miss.  There was a blizzard this week in Chicago, and freezing rain in the Northeast. 

What say you now?

Flakmeister's picture

 Hey, I hope you guys bought some FRG, as I suspected NEM just offered to take em over at a 37% premium... $14 plus shares in a spinoff Au explorer.

  For the record, I have repeatedly touted this miner as the the most interesting junior explorer to own....  Heh, heh, heh

Judge Smales's picture

All of these data points, even the nonfarm coming out tomorrow, are just noise. It's all about liquidity now, and the markets want to rise, so they will continue to do so.

The Criminal Bernank has pretty much said it out loud: "Get in the stock market, dummies, because we're going to let you make free money to make up for the screwing your portfolio took in 2009. How much more of a clue do you need? I can lead you to water ..."

Liquidity Now!

blind squirrel's picture

I tend to concurr.  Fed is flooding the system with so much money, 7 or 8 billion each day, that it is overwhelming the system.  The markets have temporarily detached from any economic foundation.

AnAnonymous's picture

Basically, there are 40 k people whose existence holds on pressing a button. They come to existence or are erased just like that.

Robslob's picture

Don't disagree BUT it's just the "pulling the rug out from underneath you" scenario that keeps me away.

Two times in less than a decade...this time is different at the "third time" will be the charm...

Hmmm....10-15% upside from here or -50% drop risk return ratio.

I'll pass on stocks and bonds as the other choices are obvious.

Johnny Lawrence's picture

Mentioned this before, the last 140 years of market history, we have never NOT had a correction when the P/E10 was over 20 (currently 23.8).  And each correction brought the market back below it's historical P/E10 which is 16.3.  Many times it brought the market back to a single digit multiple.  This is when I will back up the truck.