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Initial Claims YoYo From Upward Revised 457K To 415K On Expectations Of 420K

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The weekly initial claims number has become nothing short of a yoyo. The volatility in the data series, which is supposed to be erased through the seasonal adjustments has hit another year high, and to anyone trying to extrapolate any forecast based on a number that has moved between 380K and 457K in one month, our condolences. According to the BLS initial claims dropped by 42K from an upward revised 457K (454K previously) to 415K, on expectations of 420K. Non-seasonally adjusted claims came in as well, but by roughly half this amount, dropping from 486K to 460K. Continuing claims came at 3,925K on expectations of 3,950K (with the previous revised, naturally higher from 3,991K to 4,009K). EUCs dropped by 130K in the week ended January 15 as wave after wave of people now hits the 99 week cliff of all jobless extensions.

Full dramamine inducing report

 

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Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:41 | 930507 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Tomorrows report will be key to see if NILF continues to rise.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:47 | 930522 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

do these numbers even matter anymore? i suppose anyone can pull figures out of their ass and call them significant; same principle as fiat currency.. we have a fiat economy.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:04 | 930581 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I think the NILF says volumes about the real employment picture...probably why its the very last of the 'A' tables. NILF has risen 17% in the last 10 yrs where the population has increased 9%. Thus almost twice as many people aren't working as the population grows placing a larger burden on those who do work as well as social programs. Eventually something will have to give.

But maybe it all doesn't matter....

 

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:10 | 930598 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Ben Shalom has an app for that.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:55 | 930716 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

btw..wonder if there are are some massive derivatives tied to a certain level of the S&P500 which TPTB want to achieve w/o which it would be a disaster. These derivatives may have been written in the cocky and golden times of 1995-2008. BRK already has something similar ?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:41 | 930508 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

Follow the bouncing ball.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:43 | 930511 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

once you fire everyone except the bare minimum, there just aren't many left to fire.  well, thats the thought.  but, american companies keep finding 460K people to fire every week. 

 

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 15:56 | 932076 prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

here in wisconsin, many of the large corporations are constantly hiring / firing people, a merry go round between them and all the temp services that seem to be increasing in number.  Maybe it's the new norm, in order to report hiring, they fire

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:43 | 930513 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

But, But, But the A.D.P. numbers were much better....lots of folks working now.  Why I see snow shoveling job offers all over the place and in cash too!

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:44 | 930515 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

The mendacity continues. Notice the up revision, again. Me thinks snow helps keep claims down. Should keep them down this week too. Then watch out.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:46 | 930517 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

So new jobless continue to yo-yo in a stubbornly elevated range. 

But one thing has not varied: productivity and unit labor costs. The vector is steady down and now accelerating. Now the Fed and it's little minions would like you to believe that it's all about our fantastic progress in automation and our wonderfully efficient US corporations.

Here's another interpretation: it's all cost cutting. Corporations can't pass on their higher input costs (as we've been discussing). In response they turn immediately to cost cutting through layoffs, offshoring and cutting hours pay and benefits. So everyone left works the same or harder for less. And in a distressed jobs market all new hires accept lower pay for more work. It's a reflection of what Rick Santelli would call "structural issues" but what I call "the downsizing of America". It continues.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:49 | 930533 cossack55
cossack55's picture

But isn't the "downsizing of amerika" being offset by the "supersizing" at the goldern arches?  Seems to me amerikans could do with a little downsizing.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:56 | 930553 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Excellent insight! We had the 'supersize-me!' economy in the 2000s. And we got obese and hooked on steroids. Now we got the downsizing but we're gettin' saggy. If you believe in Ben's Excellent Plan, pretty soon we'll be feeling the effects of all his trillions trickling down to us. It's the 'Trickle-me!' economy ! 

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:58 | 930563 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Did Elmo work at 33 Liberty after his Sesame gig? Makes sense.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:48 | 930523 oogs66
oogs66's picture

Why lay people off when they are all just working part time with no benefits?  Just shrink hours. Its a free option for employers, and the economists just refuse to adjust their thinking that 400k is a 'good' number. 

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:04 | 930583 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@oogs66

Brilliant analysis. We need to see the hours worked from this report.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 16:01 | 932099 prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

good point, i've seen the statistics that when they claim 8 million job losses in a few years, it was really a loss of 10 million full time jobs with 2 million new part time jobs.....

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:43 | 930691 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Any way to see payroll tax revenues YOY?  It would pretty much cut through the bullshit wouldn't it?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:49 | 930526 r101958
r101958's picture

Yes, agreed Caviar. I was 'downsized' (off-shored) as of the 1st of February.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:49 | 930527 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

It will be interesting to see if there is a huge backlog due to weather. next 2 weeks might show a sudden upward sweep as several offices were closed.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:49 | 930530 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Proof that the Plutocrats can move the number around anywhere they wish.

Totally fabricated.

Just like they can move stocks around at will, up or down.

Depending upon what part of the "Wash, Rinse, Repeat" cycle they are in.

PigMen are either jacking up stocks to burn the short sellers, or they are smashing the tape with huge bear raids so they can buy more assets on the cheap.

Constant wealth re-distribution.

Rich keep getting richer.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:05 | 930585 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

That pretty much sums up the whole game.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:10 | 930597 BlackSea
BlackSea's picture

How true Robo.

And how it eats away at the moral fabric of a nation...

Enough sentimentality though, back to reality now.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:50 | 930534 youngman
youngman's picture

"the downsizing of America". It continues.""

I agree.....and the devaluing of America.....wages..salaries are and should be dropping....we have to get competitive to the rest of the world....which to me means a 20% drop....we are smarter and will have a wage/salary structure...but we have got way out of whack...when we bust the pensions and unions get realistic...then we will start to see the rebuildingof the USA.....to me that is 5 years off though.....lots of pain first...right now we are still inflating the balloon....but its getting close to popping..

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 16:09 | 932136 prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

your endorsement of the race to the bottom is insane.  Reminds me of the Australian farmer, to the economist, "so if we import less, and export everything we produce, we'll be better off" - "so if everybody makes less, we'll be better off" -bs

 

"in times of upheaval/crisis, wealth is transferred, and not lost"

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:51 | 930535 tmosley
tmosley's picture

But Smailes told me everything was getting better!

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:59 | 930565 Judge Smales
Judge Smales's picture

I told you nothing of the sort, sir, and I NEVER slice.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:38 | 930685 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

Nice hat, whitey. 

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:00 | 930571 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

The American Staffing Association Index increased 1% to 89 for the week ending January 16. This was 13% above a year ago, but about 5% below 2007 levels. Seasonality is no longer an issue. This is the closest so far the index has come to pre-recession levels.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:08 | 930588 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Hey part time and temp is in. Lowes is laying off 1700 and shifting to increasing their weekend part time staff. That is how companies can reduce costs in the face of either poor sales or higher product costs (or both).

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:22 | 930639 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

................ " U.S. railroads registered more traffic gains in 2011’s third week, but they were more of the modest variety, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR). During the week ending Jan. 22, they originated 282,837 carloads, up 1.5 percent, and 213,206 intermodal loads, up 6.2 percent compared with traffic from the same week last year.

Container volume rose 6.8 percent and trailer volume increased 2.8 percent, while only 11 of 20 carload commodity groups registered gains. Industrial and automotive traffic only increased 3 percent and 2 percent, respectively, but railroads are preparing for accelerating demand in both sectors, said Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc. analysts in their weekly “Rail Flash” report. " ...................

 

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:35 | 930681 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

It doesn't appear that car loadings of employed people registered any gains....

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:33 | 930673 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

.......... " An index measuring truck tonnage volumes in December reached its highest level since mid-2008, the ATA reported Tuesday.

 

The trade group said in a release that its advance index of for-hire truck tonnage jumped 2.2 percent last month after falling a revised 0.6 percent in November. The index is adjusted for seasonal variations.

Now at 111.6, with the year 2000 equal to 100, the index is at its highest level since September 2008.

Tonnage was up 4.2 percent from December 2009. " .............................

 

 

Truck tonnage index hits highest level since mid-2008 

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:47 | 930695 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

What's the Baltic index doing?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:12 | 930738 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

What's ConTex index doing ?

 

New ConTex is a Container Ship Time Charter Assessment Index. It is a company-independent index which is calculated as an equivalent weight of percentage change from six ConTex assessments, which are for the classes of Type 1100 TEU, Type 1700 TEU, Type 2500 TEU, Type 2700, Type 3500 and Type 4250. The index starting point is 1000. New ConTex is compiled by a group of international operating brokers and is updated twice a week. The data source is Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS), the Hamburg Shipbroker's Association. As of May 11 2010, ConTex index expanded to include new size ranges (Type 2700, Type 3500 and Type 4250) and was renamed New ConTex.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CTEX2500:IND

 

Or .........

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CTEXIDEX:IND

New ConTex is a Container Ship Time Charter Assessment Index. It is a company-independent index which is calculated as an equivalent weight of percentage change from six ConTex assessments, which are for the classes of Type 1100 TEU, Type 1700 TEU, Type 2500 TEU, Type 2700, Type 3500 and Type 4250. The index starting point is 1000. New ConTex is compiled by a group of international operating brokers and is updated twice a week. The data source is Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS), the Hamburg Shipbroker's Association. As of May 11 2010, ConTex index expanded to include new size ranges (Type 2700, Type 3500 and Type 4250) and was renamed New ConTex.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 16:13 | 932164 prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

i've heard reports of local trucking companies turning away new business, because in this enviroment, it is too risky to borrow money to buy new trucks to support the expansion that may be just temporary, so they turn away new business rather than expand

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:53 | 930541 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

This is good news!   All news is good news!   It's a beautiful day!   We're great!

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:56 | 930552 razorthin
razorthin's picture

BLS must stand for bull loser shit

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:56 | 930554 aus_punter
aus_punter's picture

dxy having a pretty reasonable bounce of big support - dont think it bodes well for risk assets today

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:57 | 930555 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

I'm not a fan of cost cutting, but numbers are numbers and they either 'work' or they don't in terms of the P&L. Companies took headcount reductions and pay cuts (we had both) during the crisis, as it seriously looked like the end of the world was coming. Now, it just looks like we are in a stalled economy. No one wants to spend - consumers or companies - because they are afraid of a prolonged depression during which they'll need cash to ride out the storm. 2011 already looks to be the second worst year (2008 was the worst by far) for services. But I read that the rich are spending supposedly because of the wealth effect (stocks up, people with investments feel rich). If that's true, it is clearly not enough spending to provide employment gains. This means the trickle down policies of the Fed and Treasury with fiscal insanity through POMO and market ramps are not working. And now, Ben et al are backed into a corner. Brilliant play by the banks now paying record bonuses. They took risk on the way up and cashed out, now taking free money on the way down and cashed out, and now just hold the system hostage.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:57 | 930557 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

Two years, trillions of dollars, and we still get +400k initial claims! Only idiots would continue to pursue the same course of action, and expect different results. Oh that's right! It's not about employment- it's to keep insolvent banks afloat- I keep forgetting.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:03 | 930578 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Sod - agreed; this is what I don't understand. While stimulus takes time to work through the system, clearly the Fed/Treasury have been at this long enough (2+ years) that if it were going to work, we would see it. If this is the fix, then the cure is worse than the original ailment. We have ended up with MORE debt, MORE regulation (but not good regulation), MORE government, but LESS employment. It is not working.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:58 | 930561 Bodhi
Bodhi's picture

I filed my UE claim last week.  I hope I wasn't seasonal adjusted out.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:03 | 930577 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Snow was cited last week for the miss.  There was a blizzard this week in Chicago, and freezing rain in the Northeast. 

What say you now?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:03 | 930579 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 Hey, I hope you guys bought some FRG, as I suspected NEM just offered to take em over at a 37% premium... $14 plus shares in a spinoff Au explorer.

  For the record, I have repeatedly touted this miner as the the most interesting junior explorer to own....  Heh, heh, heh

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:03 | 930580 Judge Smales
Judge Smales's picture

All of these data points, even the nonfarm coming out tomorrow, are just noise. It's all about liquidity now, and the markets want to rise, so they will continue to do so.

The Criminal Bernank has pretty much said it out loud: "Get in the stock market, dummies, because we're going to let you make free money to make up for the screwing your portfolio took in 2009. How much more of a clue do you need? I can lead you to water ..."

Liquidity Now!

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:14 | 930603 blind squirrel
blind squirrel's picture

I tend to concurr.  Fed is flooding the system with so much money, 7 or 8 billion each day, that it is overwhelming the system.  The markets have temporarily detached from any economic foundation.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:15 | 930605 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Basically, there are 40 k people whose existence holds on pressing a button. They come to existence or are erased just like that.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:15 | 930608 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Don't disagree BUT it's just the "pulling the rug out from underneath you" scenario that keeps me away.

Two times in less than a decade...this time is different at the "third time" will be the charm...

Hmmm....10-15% upside from here or -50% drop risk return ratio.

I'll pass on stocks and bonds as the other choices are obvious.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:21 | 930627 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Mentioned this before, but.......in the last 140 years of market history, we have never NOT had a correction when the P/E10 was over 20 (currently 23.8).  And each correction brought the market back below it's historical P/E10 which is 16.3.  Many times it brought the market back to a single digit multiple.  This is when I will back up the truck.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:21 | 930626 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Unfortunately the Fed's been staking everything, even the credit rating of the entire US to save failed banks and Wall Street and to reflate the stock and capital markets through massive deficits. So the response will be further cuts in Federal benefits (medicare, soc security), and trickling on down to state and municipal pensions but also cut backs in services like cops, fire, ambulance, prisons, garbage, healthcare etc...

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:23 | 930644 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

The cutbacks in state services would have happened anyway, as the US has been living above its means for a long, long time.  But, keeping asset prices at artificial levels will make the bust even more painful.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:21 | 930629 bigelkhorn
bigelkhorn's picture

I think that the PIIGS are in deep strife in 2011.
Alot of people think we are doomed, but there are still great ways to make money.

I subscribe to the FFT newsletter at http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com that guy is calling for a bigger event to come in the next few months. His oil calls are insane, and I have been making good money with that.

Start stocking up on gold people!! Do it yesterday.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:26 | 930660 Rick Masters
Rick Masters's picture

The depression is over...well for me. I just great job and you know what they say: when you're unemployed it's a dpression, when your neighbor is it's a recession. So count me out of those numbers. WOOT WOOT!

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:31 | 930671 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its now just a juggling game with Goldilocks, although the numbers are total shit leets massage them with upward revisions to cover the horror story underneath that we're STILL losing 400,000+ jobs WEEKLY.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:34 | 930678 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Seriously.  Doesn't anyone care that over 400,000 new people a week are filing for unemployment benefits...and that's just the "seasonally-adjusted" number.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:58 | 930721 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Reading bloombergs initial coverage of the report i would suggest not only do people not care Johnny , they have somehow convinced themselves the data coming in is showing signs of economic growth. Im not sure these same people (that manage billions of dollars i may add) understand what organic growth is though.  Take a look for yourself. Top news on bloomberg : initial jobless claims fall.

MSM makes momo a sad panda.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:31 | 930804 irishgurl4
irishgurl4's picture

That's what I've been saying.  Oh, *only* 400k filed unemployment claims and that's good news?  You gotta be really delusional to buy that imo.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:50 | 930895 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

I really wish they would just tack the previous week adjustment onto the current number.

*edit: 'week', not 'month'

 

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 16:27 | 932234 prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

I just divided $1T by 300M Americans, and it comes out to $1,333.  This is the amount the Federal Reserve should pay out to each person in America as credit, every time they "create" a trillion in debt for the banks, because that money debt isn't making it from wall st to main st.

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