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Tomorrows report will be key to see if NILF continues to rise.
do these numbers even matter anymore? i suppose anyone can pull figures out of their ass and call them significant; same principle as fiat currency.. we have a fiat economy.
I think the NILF says volumes about the real employment picture...probably why its the very last of the 'A' tables. NILF has risen 17% in the last 10 yrs where the population has increased 9%. Thus almost twice as many people aren't working as the population grows placing a larger burden on those who do work as well as social programs. Eventually something will have to give.
But maybe it all doesn't matter....
Ben Shalom has an app for that.
btw..wonder if there are are some massive derivatives tied to a certain level of the S&P500 which TPTB want to achieve w/o which it would be a disaster. These derivatives may have been written in the cocky and golden times of 1995-2008. BRK already has something similar ?
Follow the bouncing ball.
once you fire everyone except the bare minimum, there just aren't many left to fire. well, thats the thought. but, american companies keep finding 460K people to fire every week.
here in wisconsin, many of the large corporations are constantly hiring / firing people, a merry go round between them and all the temp services that seem to be increasing in number. Maybe it's the new norm, in order to report hiring, they fire
But, But, But the A.D.P. numbers were much better....lots of folks working now. Why I see snow shoveling job offers all over the place and in cash too!
The mendacity continues. Notice the up revision, again. Me thinks snow helps keep claims down. Should keep them down this week too. Then watch out.
So new jobless continue to yo-yo in a stubbornly elevated range.
But one thing has not varied: productivity and unit labor costs. The vector is steady down and now accelerating. Now the Fed and it's little minions would like you to believe that it's all about our fantastic progress in automation and our wonderfully efficient US corporations.
Here's another interpretation: it's all cost cutting. Corporations can't pass on their higher input costs (as we've been discussing). In response they turn immediately to cost cutting through layoffs, offshoring and cutting hours pay and benefits. So everyone left works the same or harder for less. And in a distressed jobs market all new hires accept lower pay for more work. It's a reflection of what Rick Santelli would call "structural issues" but what I call "the downsizing of America". It continues.
But isn't the "downsizing of amerika" being offset by the "supersizing" at the goldern arches? Seems to me amerikans could do with a little downsizing.
Excellent insight! We had the 'supersize-me!' economy in the 2000s. And we got obese and hooked on steroids. Now we got the downsizing but we're gettin' saggy. If you believe in Ben's Excellent Plan, pretty soon we'll be feeling the effects of all his trillions trickling down to us. It's the 'Trickle-me!' economy !
Did Elmo work at 33 Liberty after his Sesame gig? Makes sense.
Why lay people off when they are all just working part time with no benefits? Just shrink hours. Its a free option for employers, and the economists just refuse to adjust their thinking that 400k is a 'good' number.
Brilliant analysis. We need to see the hours worked from this report.
good point, i've seen the statistics that when they claim 8 million job losses in a few years, it was really a loss of 10 million full time jobs with 2 million new part time jobs.....
Any way to see payroll tax revenues YOY? It would pretty much cut through the bullshit wouldn't it?
Yes, agreed Caviar. I was 'downsized' (off-shored) as of the 1st of February.
It will be interesting to see if there is a huge backlog due to weather. next 2 weeks might show a sudden upward sweep as several offices were closed.
Proof that the Plutocrats can move the number around anywhere they wish.
Just like they can move stocks around at will, up or down.
Depending upon what part of the "Wash, Rinse, Repeat" cycle they are in.
PigMen are either jacking up stocks to burn the short sellers, or they are smashing the tape with huge bear raids so they can buy more assets on the cheap.
Constant wealth re-distribution.
Rich keep getting richer.
That pretty much sums up the whole game.
How true Robo.
And how it eats away at the moral fabric of a nation...
Enough sentimentality though, back to reality now.
"the downsizing of America". It continues.""
I agree.....and the devaluing of America.....wages..salaries are and should be dropping....we have to get competitive to the rest of the world....which to me means a 20% drop....we are smarter and will have a wage/salary structure...but we have got way out of whack...when we bust the pensions and unions get realistic...then we will start to see the rebuildingof the USA.....to me that is 5 years off though.....lots of pain first...right now we are still inflating the balloon....but its getting close to popping..
your endorsement of the race to the bottom is insane. Reminds me of the Australian farmer, to the economist, "so if we import less, and export everything we produce, we'll be better off" - "so if everybody makes less, we'll be better off" -bs
"in times of upheaval/crisis, wealth is transferred, and not lost"
But Smailes told me everything was getting better!
I told you nothing of the sort, sir, and I NEVER slice.
Nice hat, whitey.
The American Staffing Association Index increased 1% to 89 for the week ending January 16. This was 13% above a year ago, but about 5% below 2007 levels. Seasonality is no longer an issue. This is the closest so far the index has come to pre-recession levels.
Hey part time and temp is in. Lowes is laying off 1700 and shifting to increasing their weekend part time staff. That is how companies can reduce costs in the face of either poor sales or higher product costs (or both).
................ " U.S. railroads registered more traffic gains in 2011’s third week, but they were more of the modest variety, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR). During the week ending Jan. 22, they originated 282,837 carloads, up 1.5 percent, and 213,206 intermodal loads, up 6.2 percent compared with traffic from the same week last year.Container volume rose 6.8 percent and trailer volume increased 2.8 percent, while only 11 of 20 carload commodity groups registered gains. Industrial and automotive traffic only increased 3 percent and 2 percent, respectively, but railroads are preparing for accelerating demand in both sectors, said Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc. analysts in their weekly “Rail Flash” report. " ...................
It doesn't appear that car loadings of employed people registered any gains....
.......... " An index measuring truck tonnage volumes in December reached its highest level since mid-2008, the ATA reported Tuesday.
The trade group said in a release that its advance index of for-hire truck tonnage jumped 2.2 percent last month after falling a revised 0.6 percent in November. The index is adjusted for seasonal variations.
Now at 111.6, with the year 2000 equal to 100, the index is at its highest level since September 2008.
Tonnage was up 4.2 percent from December 2009. " .............................
Truck tonnage index hits highest level since mid-2008
What's the Baltic index doing?
What's ConTex index doing ?
New ConTex is a Container Ship Time Charter Assessment Index. It is a company-independent index which is calculated as an equivalent weight of percentage change from six ConTex assessments, which are for the classes of Type 1100 TEU, Type 1700 TEU, Type 2500 TEU, Type 2700, Type 3500 and Type 4250. The index starting point is 1000. New ConTex is compiled by a group of international operating brokers and is updated twice a week. The data source is Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS), the Hamburg Shipbroker's Association. As of May 11 2010, ConTex index expanded to include new size ranges (Type 2700, Type 3500 and Type 4250) and was renamed New ConTex.
i've heard reports of local trucking companies turning away new business, because in this enviroment, it is too risky to borrow money to buy new trucks to support the expansion that may be just temporary, so they turn away new business rather than expand
This is good news! All news is good news! It's a beautiful day! We're great!
BLS must stand for bull loser shit
dxy having a pretty reasonable bounce of big support - dont think it bodes well for risk assets today
I'm not a fan of cost cutting, but numbers are numbers and they either 'work' or they don't in terms of the P&L. Companies took headcount reductions and pay cuts (we had both) during the crisis, as it seriously looked like the end of the world was coming. Now, it just looks like we are in a stalled economy. No one wants to spend - consumers or companies - because they are afraid of a prolonged depression during which they'll need cash to ride out the storm. 2011 already looks to be the second worst year (2008 was the worst by far) for services. But I read that the rich are spending supposedly because of the wealth effect (stocks up, people with investments feel rich). If that's true, it is clearly not enough spending to provide employment gains. This means the trickle down policies of the Fed and Treasury with fiscal insanity through POMO and market ramps are not working. And now, Ben et al are backed into a corner. Brilliant play by the banks now paying record bonuses. They took risk on the way up and cashed out, now taking free money on the way down and cashed out, and now just hold the system hostage.
Two years, trillions of dollars, and we still get +400k initial claims! Only idiots would continue to pursue the same course of action, and expect different results. Oh that's right! It's not about employment- it's to keep insolvent banks afloat- I keep forgetting.
Sod - agreed; this is what I don't understand. While stimulus takes time to work through the system, clearly the Fed/Treasury have been at this long enough (2+ years) that if it were going to work, we would see it. If this is the fix, then the cure is worse than the original ailment. We have ended up with MORE debt, MORE regulation (but not good regulation), MORE government, but LESS employment. It is not working.
I filed my UE claim last week. I hope I wasn't seasonal adjusted out.
Snow was cited last week for the miss. There was a blizzard this week in Chicago, and freezing rain in the Northeast.
What say you now?
Hey, I hope you guys bought some FRG, as I suspected NEM just offered to take em over at a 37% premium... $14 plus shares in a spinoff Au explorer.
For the record, I have repeatedly touted this miner as the the most interesting junior explorer to own.... Heh, heh, heh
All of these data points, even the nonfarm coming out tomorrow, are just noise. It's all about liquidity now, and the markets want to rise, so they will continue to do so.
The Criminal Bernank has pretty much said it out loud: "Get in the stock market, dummies, because we're going to let you make free money to make up for the screwing your portfolio took in 2009. How much more of a clue do you need? I can lead you to water ..."
I tend to concurr. Fed is flooding the system with so much money, 7 or 8 billion each day, that it is overwhelming the system. The markets have temporarily detached from any economic foundation.
Basically, there are 40 k people whose existence holds on pressing a button. They come to existence or are erased just like that.
Don't disagree BUT it's just the "pulling the rug out from underneath you" scenario that keeps me away.
Two times in less than a decade...this time is different at the "third time" will be the charm...
Hmmm....10-15% upside from here or -50% drop risk return ratio.
I'll pass on stocks and bonds as the other choices are obvious.
Mentioned this before, but.......in the last 140 years of market history, we have never NOT had a correction when the P/E10 was over 20 (currently 23.8). And each correction brought the market back below it's historical P/E10 which is 16.3. Many times it brought the market back to a single digit multiple. This is when I will back up the truck.
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