Initial Claims YoYo From Upward Revised 457K To 415K On Expectations Of 420K

Tyler Durden's picture

The weekly initial claims number has become nothing short of a yoyo. The volatility in the data series, which is supposed to be erased through the seasonal adjustments has hit another year high, and to anyone trying to extrapolate any forecast based on a number that has moved between 380K and 457K in one month, our condolences. According to the BLS initial claims dropped by 42K from an upward revised 457K (454K previously) to 415K, on expectations of 420K. Non-seasonally adjusted claims came in as well, but by roughly half this amount, dropping from 486K to 460K. Continuing claims came at 3,925K on expectations of 3,950K (with the previous revised, naturally higher from 3,991K to 4,009K). EUCs dropped by 130K in the week ended January 15 as wave after wave of people now hits the 99 week cliff of all jobless extensions.

Full dramamine inducing report

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Caviar Emptor's picture

Unfortunately the Fed's been staking everything, even the credit rating of the entire US to save failed banks and Wall Street and to reflate the stock and capital markets through massive deficits. So the response will be further cuts in Federal benefits (medicare, soc security), and trickling on down to state and municipal pensions but also cut backs in services like cops, fire, ambulance, prisons, garbage, healthcare etc...

Johnny Lawrence's picture

The cutbacks in state services would have happened anyway, as the US has been living above its means for a long, long time.  But, keeping asset prices at artificial levels will make the bust even more painful.

bigelkhorn's picture

I think that the PIIGS are in deep strife in 2011.
Alot of people think we are doomed, but there are still great ways to make money.

I subscribe to the FFT newsletter at that guy is calling for a bigger event to come in the next few months. His oil calls are insane, and I have been making good money with that.

Start stocking up on gold people!! Do it yesterday.

Rick Masters's picture

The depression is over...well for me. I just great job and you know what they say: when you're unemployed it's a dpression, when your neighbor is it's a recession. So count me out of those numbers. WOOT WOOT!

SheepDog-One's picture

Its now just a juggling game with Goldilocks, although the numbers are total shit leets massage them with upward revisions to cover the horror story underneath that we're STILL losing 400,000+ jobs WEEKLY.

Johnny Lawrence's picture

Seriously.  Doesn't anyone care that over 400,000 new people a week are filing for unemployment benefits...and that's just the "seasonally-adjusted" number.

equity_momo's picture

Reading bloombergs initial coverage of the report i would suggest not only do people not care Johnny , they have somehow convinced themselves the data coming in is showing signs of economic growth. Im not sure these same people (that manage billions of dollars i may add) understand what organic growth is though.  Take a look for yourself. Top news on bloomberg : initial jobless claims fall.

MSM makes momo a sad panda.

irishgurl4's picture

That's what I've been saying.  Oh, *only* 400k filed unemployment claims and that's good news?  You gotta be really delusional to buy that imo.

faustian bargain's picture

I really wish they would just tack the previous week adjustment onto the current number.

*edit: 'week', not 'month'


prophet_banker's picture

I just divided $1T by 300M Americans, and it comes out to $1,333.  This is the amount the Federal Reserve should pay out to each person in America as credit, every time they "create" a trillion in debt for the banks, because that money debt isn't making it from wall st to main st.