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Initial Jobless Claims Come At 464k, Up 37k Sequentially, Miss Consensus Of 445k
And now, another cold shower for chasers of unemployment inflection points: last week's jobless claims came at 464k, worse than consensus of 445k, and an increase of 37k from a previously revised 427k (down from 429k). More notably, those collecting Emergency Unemployment Claims plunged by 404k in the week ended July 3 as over a million people have now lost their extended insurance premiums. Yet with futures completely ignoring this data, at this point the market is once again caught in a self-fulfilling momentum driven feeding frenzy in which bad news are ignored and one or two positive straws are latched on with vice like precision. In the meantime the 10Y at 2.90 is once again completely disconnected with the giddy reality that stocks are attempting to portray. With bonds pricing in full blown deflation, while stocks hanging on to inflationary hopes, one or the other will very soon have to be proven wrong.
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Now I feel better, let's bring down this pumped market, 1000 points crash about to come in a theater near you! Yeeeeeeeeeeeeehhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!
You will be disappointed. The gubmint and Fedsters will pump the shit out of this market until it explodes. It is their only hope at this point. There is still room to expand, in my view. But, in the end, we will all suffer from the profligate ways, except for the kleptocrats, who will have run away with everything of value.
But....but....but all those DOW components hit or exceeded their (thrice revised downward) profit and earnings forecast. So ignore the (unemployed) man behind the curtain.
as well as that woman, "giddy" in all its glory, Christine Romer. Team Obama.
Romer's grin is like the Cheshire Cat's from Alice In Wonderland....it hangs in the air long after she's gone....creepy!
All I can hang my hat on is that the markets look at labor as a trailing indicator otherwise the markets are totally disconnected from realty. We'll see how the day shakes out.
The markets have moved so far ahead of that trailing indicator that soon the markets will have come full circle and run up the ass of that indicator.
Ha! Actually, I think this has already happened. It's in the upper GI at this point.
Saw a great bumper sticker yesterday: Since when is blind devotion to corporate profits a patriotic duty?
That needs to be a t-shirt and handed out to every employee laid off, and those already unemployed.
The only thing I can think of is that the "blindman" junked your comment because you're being insensitive to the "blind"(ly) devoted. Call me confused.
At least I can make someones day in that they get all gitty by clicking the junk icon thinking that it really makes a difference.
Dry your tears little CD, there's no need to be confused. He got junked for posting something completely unrelated to the topic at hand, and a rather dumb non sequitur of a bumper sticker at that. Are the people of the United States particularly loyal to corporate profits? Nah, no one gives a shit. All we can tell is that there's a lot of outrageously overpaid "managers" out there. Along with outrageously overpaid lawyers, athletes, and public employees.
And I guess that's what makes a market because I felt it had everything to do with the topic. The actual story also talked about the pre-market futures ignoring the bad news and ramped because.....well because. Corporate profits? Corporate drugs? Who knows?
The poster was asking why we should be loyal to corporations who are not loyal to us? Why we should swear allegiance to entities who only concern is their bottom line and their compensation.
I want one!
I want it in braille!
Though nipple bumps might cause it to be read as-
"Since when is blind devotion to corporate profits a patriotic booty?"
When you live in a town of less than 30,000, these WEEKLY job losses are unimaginable
I see the feds are laying off more workers this week. Are they downsizing at an accelerating rate?
but...this is how a jobless recovery looks like!
how can there be recovery...if people are working?
recovery is all about corporate profits....beating estimates
Exactly. It all just a terrible misunderstanding between the average Joe and us on Wall Street.
Silly rabbit, we're speaking profits recovery and you're speaking subsistence recovery. Not shut up and turn on the TeeVee for your daily (mind) programing session.
So basically, the US economy would be doing fine if it weren't for all these jobless people...
No...The economy is doing fine BECAUSE of these jobless people...It is called The Jobless Recovery and every American should QUIT his/her job to help the economy become an historical recovery...Ask Not What Your Country Can Do For You, Ask What You Can Do For Your Country...Quit Your Job!
"It is called The Jobless Recovery..."
Wait. What happened to the "job loss recovery"?
does it really matter.......so many people are unemployed now ....what will another 400K do ?
But the markets remain impervious: Spooz futures holding up at euphoria levels, most commodities up, libor down. That's cause we've reached a critical realizations this week: "Bad news is now good news" again as Uncle Ben gets closer and closer to pulling the sugar trigger. And that confirms our even bigger realization that given global central bank and government policies, there's no way that people with capital can lose in this economy so long as there's no way that people dependent on income can win. The cycle is now self-perpetuating.
DING DING DING!!! We have our winner.
So now, ZH needs to focus on what is, not what they want to see. You must have capital to win and winning is what this is all about. You can hate the game, but don't hate the player.
It may someday matter that Ben is giving away the $, but not in my lifetime. In my lifetime, I must care for myself and my family. So, I will use my capital to take advantage of those dependent on an income. It just is what it is. You want Mother Teresa, look elsewhere.
Now, enough with the world is ending crap. Get on with the business of posting articles dealing with the reality of an ongoing economy that will not soon collapse and the process of milking money from the idiot sheeple. Embrace CNBC, don't reject it. It is the conduit to the mind of the prey. Every time Mr. Liesman speaks of the glorious recovery, I applaud. When Mr. Santelli notes what should be happening, I just frown.
Move on it ZH; the world awaits your transformation.
O'Brien: What are your feelings towards Big Brother?
Winston Smith: I hate him.
O'Brien: You must love him. It is not enough to obey him. You must love him.
Can anyone imagine a massive spike in yields to close the divergence, and under what scenario could that happen?
Just attempting to see the other side of my admittedly very negative view of the equity circus.
Much thanks in advance.
Not any time soon at all. It's just rearranging the deck chairs: 401K holders moved their money into bonds and are still pulling money out of equity mutual funds weekly. So all those extra trillions from Uncle Sugar moved into stocks. Marching orders from above since the Directive of March 9th, 2009.
It doesn't matter about jobs. The U.S. has corporate bonus economy. If an executive gets a big bonus, he will have to eventually spend that bonus. That will trickle down and if you are a good patriotic citizen you can shine his shoes or whatever. Eventually the corporate executives will save the world, because they are the chosen ones.
Unfortunately, that does seem to be the way it is working out.
Yes! And the US will finally get one huge new growth industry: The Domestic Servant Industry. Maids, butlers, valets, cooks, chauffeurs, gardeners, bee keepers and footmen will all be in high demand soon. Get your little sexy outfits here while they last
Just so you know, Miss Consensus is a slut. I can't begin to tell you the things she says and does.
When ever I hear about the trickle down theory, I'm reminded of a story John McCain related about his POW imprisonment in Vietnam. While all around him was lush tropical rain forest and daily fresh water rain showers, he and the others were held in various prisons with barely enough food to live. Often his captives would refuse them fresh water, insisting that they could catch all they needed as it trickled down through the holes in the roof.
I always have this vision of the prisoners on their backs, mouths wide open, desperately trying to catch a few drops of moisture. Kinda fits America today, doesn't it?
Yeah...except that it is really the upstairs toilet overflowing...
Quite an image, CD. Yes I've felt the same about it for a long time. The notion that wealthy people "put money back to work in the economy" is so naive. They hoard cash, art, jewelry. They park money in offshore tax havens. They stuff money into trusts and charities. They gamble, they spend on entertainment and parties. They hire pool guys, yes and social secretaries. But in an economy that has been structured for over 30 years toward outsourcing production and importing finished goods, the opportunities for creating enterprise have been diminishing under headwinds. Easier to just to bet on inflation and go for a swim.
kind of, but not really... the american poor may have their hands tied, but they don't have a gun to their heads... a more appropriate analogy would be to have the POWs escorted to a jungle prison only to be told by their captors, ok, you are free to go now... even though you have no idea where you are... have no food nor water... and no idea what plants are poisonous and what animals abound desiring to eat you, with no means of defense.
there are some who escape... but the strange part is the number of POWs who just decide to stay... and even find contentment...
I wasn't talking about the American poor.
elaborate please. We have an analogy and a reference to america... trying to figure out what you were saying...
To go along with the higher unemloyment numbers in June for the Metro Atlanta area (rising to 10.3% from 10%),
there are four new foreclosures out of 700 hundred homes in June alone in my neighborhood.
Things are getting worse, not better.
hahaha...gm buying a subprime lender. what could possibly go wrong there?
in other news, the leading weight loss drug is a big-mac.
insanity has now replaced hope as a viable strategy.
The lovely lizzy once again goes for the jugular and scores a blood gusher for (in)sanity. :>)
The PTB have shown their hands and they will pump this market harder than an 18 year old virgin pumps his first. It's flat out nuts.
Besides, you didn't get the memo that hiring is going on again. Obumer said so. We probably hired at least 550k last week to offset those newly fired 460k+. I can't wait to hear how the morons on the bube tube spin this. It ought to make waking up early worth it. I need a good laugh.
hahaha! Over the weekend, I saw a segment on a news channel (I don't remember which one now) that said that Australia's inflated housing market is sustainable. Their reasoning is that becuause the cities are clustered on the coasts in small pockets. I had a good chuckle from it since TPTB and MSM were all saying that housing prices would never deflate pre 2008.
As long as people sit and do nothing and accept their assigned fate of govt slow-kill death, then why WOULDN'T the Kleptocrats keep on Klepting? Working out great for them, never been better! Screw 100 million unemployed americans, they can use em as a political football!
I must admit that I am laughing at the feedback loop we are currently in. All earnings have been revised down so that it apprears that companies are "beating" estimates. This causes the already over-inflated stock price to go up and P/E's are flying up. The S&P is nearly at a 20 P/E.
We are creating another bubble in stocks, unless we get some magical real growth in the world. All reports from soverign sources are about as worthwhile as toilet paper. The EU bank stress test is already viewed by even the MSM as nearly laughable since all banks are passing with flying colors. Did Timmay and BennyBoy give the EU their 2008-09 playbook?
Insant gratification and ADHD mixed with meth and speed mainlined straight into the jugular. Live for today and we'll deal with tomorrow when and if we get there.
This is the functional equivalent of trying to drive your car down a winding country road without ever looking further than 10 feet past the front hood. A drunk would probably do a better job and have more fun. Either way the ditch on the side of the road beckons.
The markets are one gigantic tragic comedy. It is both laughable and sad in that the artificial propping of the markets, will also be the undoing of the markets.
It is like sovereign debt, just ignore it and it will go away....that is until the 600 pound gorilla turns into a 1600 pound gorilla with an elephant for a sidekick. Rips your head off stuffs it up your ass and the elephant shits on you. Wake me up when the markets have a true reset and can grow organically and sustainably.
I'm calling BS. Prove that UPS earnings have been revised downward, or for that matter, CAT's.
I'm waiting. I don't believe you'll find a way to support your statement.
By the way, did all the good ZH'ers spend the morning digging bunkers or are you making some money as this market ie screaming up today??
This place really is the equivalent of CNBC, just on the other side of the hyperbole spectrum. I am so glad I haven't paid any attention to this nonsense or I'd be broke.
The Obama recovery is on baby!!! Get on board or lose your shirts.
The few who could understand the system will either be so interested in its profits, or so dependent on its favours, that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of the people mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests.
You're compairing apples to oranges. I am refering to the market and not two stocks out of 4000. Today on Bloomberg TV they even brought up how revenues have been misses even with the revisions downward, and how it is still becoming bottom line growth. I do not know where you get an idea that CAT or UPS is the make or break of all stocks and reports. How about Alcoa, why don't you prove me wrong with that stock? I can cherry pick to, but there is still more evidence that supports bottom-line is where it is mostly at and not top-line. So start digging soldier!
U-3 unemployment above 9% is the "new normal". Forever.
I wonder when american unemployed people will start becoming street vendors, and sell all kind of cheap chinese stuff (clothes, electronics) on the sidewalks of the streets, as well as selling fruits and vegetables.
The sidewalks of the Brazilian streets are always crowded with street vendors. When will I see that on New York City and Chicago streets?
You are right, Zina. For a long time to come. With high levels of monetary debasement and interest rates this low, the excess capacity cannot be wiped out of the system. The FRB/UST/USG are protecting the status quo, the little people be damned.
The "productivity" of the employed is (theoretically) being replaced by the "productivity" of printed-out-of-thin-air liquidity.
Let them eat cake.
DOW to infinity... and beyond!
(Am using cartoon phrases because the government needs to talk down to the stupid American sheeple in the same method.... with all due apologies to the very smart ZH'ers out there).
"Smart" ZH'ers? Surely you jest. Smart would be recognizing this is a market set to scream up, up and away. Smart people fo worry about the why. Makes no difference. You guys have caused anyone who apys attention to you a fortune. Dear god, MONEY IS FREE. MONEY IS GOING TO STAY FREE!!! WHAT ELSE DO YOU NEED TO KNOW???
Boo Hoo. One day, the money is going to fail. WHEN??? If you don't knwo when, then you are wrong. What are you going to do, let all of these gains pass you by while you sit in a hole waiting for currencies to fail? Get a damn life and post the truth. We are in recovery. Nobody gives a damn if the 15% of our population that can't read or write is out of work. Cut the dumbasses a check, they'll buy their beer, watch some kind of ball and be happy til they die. The rest of us are as busy as ever. This is a market that will scream up. I hope it goes to 36K, although I only see about 14K for this year, because I will have more money than ever. Come on Ben, INFLATE THIS MOFO!!!!
If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem
How can this be? A month ago the Prez and Benny said the recovery was going swimmingly.
Bonds are wrong; equities are right.
Just look at the pre-market and check out this open. Cat crushes, man!!! We are building and buying everything in site.
ZH is for those who can't grasp reality it seems. Everyday the world is ending but every day we build and we buy. Keep up with the doom and gloom and you're going to lose your chance at good times and easy money.
Great times! Did you notice that Europe is still here?? Seems to me that Greece is still around. What happened to PIIGS? Looks like things are going gangbusters. Euro is strong.
Smile my friends. We are in the middle of the Obama recovery - The summer of love. Jobless? I think the numbers are wayyyyyy overstated. I mean look at these profits. They don't just beat, they CRUSHHHHHH!!! Hard to make money when nobody's working, right? Who cares where they get the money, fact is they have it and we are blasting off. Get on board or get left behind.
This site is either for therapy or one huge short selling pump and dump. Never seen a group of people so detached from reality. Oh, the world is ending. Pay no attention to the up market because it is only up for some reason that is not valid (put on tin or gold foil hat here) This place is actaullya joke and I love coming over for a good laugh.
Check out this open man!!!! To the moon!!!
Cramer? That you:)
By "CRUSH" you mean by a penny or two? A couple of years ago that was a meet expectations, not "CRUSHING IT". Also if they left guidence earnings where they were at end of Q2, nearly all companies would have missed. It is a false sense of growth, about as false as how all banks US and EU pass stress tests. If all banks were healthy, then reinstate FAS 157. The markets great returns and health has all been only through accounting trickery than anything else.
And one more point on this "CRUSHING" earnings. Why are most still missing on top-line and only able to exceed epectations on the bottom-line? Can only cut costs so much until you have to reveal the truth of the matter. See ya at the end of Q4 in the bomb shelter.
No Mas, yours is the best description of QE2 I have read.
And isn't that what it is all about?
http://gardenplotter.com/rospo/blog/uploaded_images/BaitedTrap-700334.jpg
Buy, buy, buy, No Mas!
Ah fuck, it's Joe Biden
Hasn't it been a year since Dennis Kneale declared the recession over?
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/dennis-kneale-great-recession-is-over.html
How's that working out, Dennis?
Like all Viruses there will come a time when to survive they will have to feed on each other as more and more of the host is consumed.
So true
I was reading this article the other day and I believe this is what we are seeing. The market is being juiced to achieve an S&P number over 1110 to kill the bear market leg (to avoid an embarrassing mid term election mess). It is so obvious the market is now off the rails technically and fundamentally - and purely being driven by political will. Just unreal....
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjuly10/stocks-election07-10.html
Asks Nate on Nathan’s Economic Edge this morning, “Want to get angry?” And continues:
“General Motors, who we all just bailed out and who completely sunk GMAC, is now buying subprime lender AmeriCredit (ACF) for $3.5 billion so that they can recreate their terrific financing activity! On your nickel, I might add. This bailout was the worst of the worst. The media and meatheads blame the unions, but the truth is that GM could have paid NO wages, no benefits, and no retirements and they would have still lost Billions due to their incomprehensible finance arm. They financed subprime mortages loans, and they were responsible for blowing a nice bubble in automobiles! Cars became so expensive due to their financing anyone with a heartbeat, that they went from three year financing with 10% down, to seven year financing with zero down. This is what created a bubble in car prices, a bubble that still exists. And just look at the industry now. Zero down, zero interest. Where is the financing cost? It’s in the price of every car! Way overvalued, and we can thank our government’s meddling for that. GM and Chrysler continue to block out real and meaningful competition; it’s the de-evolution of our entire manufacturing base.”
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/
Speaking of "government meddling," it's former steelworker union boss Ron Bloom who's now at the GM wheel leading us up the primrose road to recovery, after having relieved Obama’s former Car Czar Steven Rattner (journalist turned multimillionaire investment banker) who lost control of the wheel, albeit highly praised by Boss Geithner.
According to the Baltimore Jewish Times, Bloom says that his time spent with a Labor Zionist youth movement "was a broader sense of identifying with the underdog, and of observing the world through a lens, through people who don’t have as much and aren’t as lucky.”
Says Wikipedia, referencing the Washington Examiner: In 2008, Bloom spoke to an audience at the sixth annual Distressed Investing Conference held at the Union League Club and said, among other things, "Generally speaking we get the joke. We know that the free market is nonsense. We know that the whole point is to game the system, to beat the market, or at least find someone who will pay you a lot of money because they're convinced that there is a free lunch. We know this is largely about power, that it's an adults only, no limit game. We kind of agree with Mao that political power comes largely from the barrel of a gun. And we get it that if you want a friend, you should get a dog."
According to the Wiki Ron Bloom bio, Bloom grew up in Swarthmore, Pennsylvania, and as a child attended Camp Galil a summer camp of the Labor Zionist youth movement, Habonim Dror. It was there, according to the Jewish Times, that he developed an engagement and desire to improve the world, as well as the motivation to be an activist and a leader in the wider Labor Movement.
Bloom previously worked as the special assistant to the President of the United Steel Workers based in Pittsburgh. Before that he worked as an Investment Banker.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Bloom
On the sunny side, the MSM continues to implode. Picked up a copy of the NYT last week. It was the same heft and importance as the weekly throw away shopper in the stand beside it. So much for the old gray lady.
On the bright side, it can still be used as emergency toilet paper.
Dow up 200 points. Unemployment irrelevant in the "new" fantasy world we live in, unless of course you are unemployed.
Or soon to be unemployed in the double dip no one sees coming.
Well, IMHO, here's some damn good news for a change.........
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/22/AR201007...