Initial Jobless Claims Decline, Continuing Rise, After Prior Upward Revision 23 Of 24

Tyler Durden's picture

Underrepresented jobless claims, which just like last week and now 23 out of 24 weeks prior, will be revised notably higher next week, came at 445K, on expectations of 455K, after last week was revised from 453K to 456K. Continuing claims, on the other hand, increased from 4,45K to 4,462K, while last week was revised, surprise, upward from 4,457K to 4,51K. At this point, however, good news is bad news, as any economic data that shows even the slightest positive inflection point weakens the QE2 argument. And if November 3 does not see Bernanke announce further easing, stocks will plunge. As for the tail end, those on extended claims and EUCs continue to seesaw, this time jumping by 255K in the week ended September 18, with extended claimants once again passing 1 million and those on EUCs over 4.1 million.

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Larry Darrell's picture

Rick Santelli pretty good again this morning covering claims and putting the beatdown on LIESman again.

He also brought up the legislation regarding the mortgage interstate notarization.

And he ended with a lovely new term for the next bailout--"placebo 2"--that made me spill my coffee.

TraderMark's picture

Video of Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass talking Fed, markets on CNBS.

Nigaz's picture

Puts on the truth?  Because you surely can't mean on stocks... they went down for a second on the number, and then people saw/heard Trichet and remembered the joke of CBs.  ES +8 immediately.

FOC 1183's picture

The binomial probability of an unbiased jobless claims estimate being revised upward 23 out of 24 times:  0.00000143%

Dont Taze Me Bro's picture

I don't think they need to revise up. It just doesn’t matter anymore.

Perception is reality!

Unemployment up -> its not as bad it could have been -> Dow up +300 pts
Unemployment unchanged -> Economy is stabilizing -> Dow up +300 pts
Unemployment down -> Woot! Here is comes recovery -> Dow up +300 pts

Dr. No's picture

It is not unbiased.  Therefore, the probaility of the claims being revised upward 23 out of 24 times: 95%.  they were shooting to underestimate 100% of the time but there was an issue with the bureaucratic review process and 1 slipped by.

jesusonline's picture

Job losses in 2009 likely bigger than thought

The Labor Department on Friday will give an initial estimate of how far off its count of employment may have been in the 12 months through March. The government admitted earlier this year that its count through March 2009 had overstated employment by 902,000 jobs.

Yet another round of the Birth/Death fraud. This should serve to reinforce the scepticism one gotta have with regards to any piece of government-reported data.

Problem Is's picture

Thanks to Beer, Prescription Drugs and Teevee...
The Amerikan Rabble (Public) are both math and graph deficient...

Helped along by deliberately inadequate education and massive corporate propaganda...

The Teevee Box is God
The Amerikan Rabble believe everything they see on teevee and every number flashed at them with out regard to any logical validity...

9.5% unemployment, GDP expansion, jobless claims down, employment up, equities soaring, economic indicators point to recovery... The Rabble question none of it....

They NEED to BELIEVE... the sine qua non of a DUPE.

Sudden Debt's picture


Sudden Debt's picture


snowball777's picture

Where's my union rep? This is harassment. ;)

Sudden Debt's picture

Oops! I didn't know you where a union guy.

Just relax, take your brake but could you please not forget to punch out at 4 o'clock?

ElvisDog's picture

"take your brake" makes me think of Karl from "Caddyshack"

"Correct me if I'm wrong, but if I kill all the golfers they're going to lock me up and throw away the key"

snowball777's picture

I still find it amusing that we focus on the number of individuals unemployed, and not the lost potential income from the sum of their former salaries or some measure of the benefits they'll draw relative to same.

Counting this way can hide employment trends like former 40-hour workers taking temp jobs or even recovery if good jobs are appearing while crap jobs are being added to the unemployment line.

Oranges != bananas.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Control the argument > control the perception > control the outcome.

Propaganda 101

Sudden Debt's picture

Gold is up to 1360, I guess the propaganda isn't really working.

Popo's picture

Yes, but the government appears to be failing badly at all three.

Except, even worse -- those in positions of power actually *do* seem to be believing their own bs.   This is actually having a compounded negative effect as we zig when we should be zagging.



Cognitive Dissonance's picture

We need to define "failure". Considering they've been able to keep the Ponzi going well past the point where many felt it would collapse under its own weight, I would say they've succeeded beyond their wildest dreams.

Not defending, just pointing out the obvious. While "everyone" seems to know they're being lied to, they still go to work, shop at WalMart and accept those dollars. Is it beginning to unwind? Sure it is. But not as fast as many thought.

gmrpeabody's picture

I guess all those people that are standing behind the President when he gives a speech, smiling and nodding their heads up and down, are much more numerous than I thought. I always thought they were paid props that travelled with the administration, and were occasionally switching around in the background there. They even have a couple of WASP males that show up from time to time. But they look like they've never worked a day in their lives.

wiskeyrunner's picture

Wow just look at the magic futures go. Not a seller in sight. Up up up and away. Make free money buy SP500 they won't let it fall even a tiny bit.

Boilermaker's picture

Yep, YOU GOT IT.  The spigot is wide open and the phantom rise is in effect.

Welcome to a true Banana Republic.

wiskeyrunner's picture

All gains come before cash market even opens. Buy the close sell the open.

papaswamp's picture

Wonder how big a miss they will report tomorrow for 2009? A million? That is a 13% miss way outside normal statistical confidence zones.

Boilermaker's picture

Who cares?  They are pushing right now for a triple digit open on the DOW.  They'll do the same fucking shit tomorrow irrespective of what is reported.

papaswamp's picture

whoa my math is way off...back to bed

NOTW777's picture

obama wire service AP reports claims as "better then expected" and in a

"positive trend"


no mention of revision.

MSM is mother of fraud

wiskeyrunner's picture

SPY will gap open yet again, and we will drift for 6 1/2 hours in a 4 point range. The fix is in people, stock market is rigged to the upside. What ever you do don't try shorting this market going into the Nov election. Wait for any dip and get long.

Boilermaker's picture

A rigged partisian tool...where do you get this wild ass idea?

Hey!  Futures are way up!

barkingbill's picture

could be but some people are predicting dollar up and stocks down coming soon. 

Nigaz's picture

Even the much ZH-favored Bloomberg has said that stocks are higher on 'better than expected' or 'much better than expected' jobless claims 5 times in the first minute during the top of the hour, and the market isn't even open yet.

barkingbill's picture

they are supporting their holy roman empire

captainscotty's picture

Those of us out in the real "Fight Club" world know that the Depression is just getting worse... So how many of your friends have not been able to pay their mortgages

for the past two years?

gwar5's picture

My next door neighbor (renter) is going through a divorce and says his ex is still living in the former house after the separation and has made no payment for over a year. He wants to get the rest of his stuff before the bank does.

Another, two houses up, told me 6 months ago the bank wanted to jack up his rate to something ridiculous on his business loan, so he filed for personal bankruptcy and told the bank to get in line. Same bank that has his home loan. Now he works for cash off the books and he's still there.

That's just within spitting distance of me. 

captainscotty's picture

I ask myself every day how much longer can the banks just float along in the pile of shit they have made. The day will come when the real value of ALL the properties the banks own will be realized.... BAM.BAM.BAM  That will make 2008 look like a dress rehearsal  ...

gwar5's picture

It's election time: everybody has a job, the border is secure, and all the children are above average. 

PIMCO El-Arian is on CNBC right now, explaining he thought the last stimulus worked and prevented a depression, prepping a broad defense to Joe of large Fed moves on the table --- but defers discussing specific Fed moves... until tomorrow

gigeze787's picture

(Politicized econ data) + (QE2 threat) + (POMO) = pre-election ramp to favor O & Dems.

The big question is why aren't the corrupt crony capitalist whores in the other party (Boehner, McConnell, etc.) screaming about how QE2 is anti-free market.

Oh, that's right, they don't believe in a free market any more than the Dems.

And because they know QE2 threat by Snow White & FOMC dwarves is not going to be be reality.




Nigaz's picture

Replace 'to favor O & Dems' with 'incumbants.'  Then you answered your own question, which it looks like you did on the next line anyway.

Almost every current congressman is bought and paid for by the bank lobby, so there's no doubt as to what is happening and why.

wiskeyrunner's picture

Gigeze you are spot on, it's all rigged to the upside.

Nigaz's picture

How much practice does it take for a Bankster to say 'strong dollar policy' without giggling or outright laughter?  I just tried in the mirror for a couple minutes and can't come close.

BurningFuld's picture

Gold is taking out all the stops.....looks like control is being lost. They must pump the crap out of stocks to try to draw money away from Gold.....or at least die trying.

Nigaz's picture

Careful... as one of the biggest goldbugs around for the last decade, I smell a big smackdown on the way.

captainscotty's picture

That's right "Nigaz" they will wait for the right "long" signal and crash the market back to $1100.- just to show that they are the rulers...But in the end the real world will put the $GOLD:$INDU  ratio to 1:1 ...The Kondratieff Cycle

Nigaz's picture

Well, I was waiting for the EUR to take out 1.40 as a trap (stops) and then start a maxpain USD rally, which would likely cause a commodity liquidation squeeze.  I'm not selling any gold/silver, since I no longer trade... but if I did still trade, I'd be positioning to benefit from a USD snapback / commodity dump.

SheepDog-One's picture

Stock pumping is a waste of time, its not working and all poll numbers continue to fall. Why dont these idiots just give up, theyre not fooling anyone.

Boilermaker's picture

They will not stop.  They will simply push harder. 

SheepDog-One's picture

Hmmm well not according to the latest where central banksters promise to not debase currencies any more. So Q/E2 <risk off> or what?

RobotTrader's picture

Tough to be bearish on stocks when the banks refuse to break and teen retailers like ANF are gapping up $3 in the pre-market.

And gold continues to lead stocks.

And stocks continue to lead gold.

Chicken or egg?