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Initial Jobless Claims Decline, Continuing Rise, After Prior Upward Revision 23 Of 24

Tyler Durden's picture


Underrepresented jobless claims, which just like last week and now 23 out of 24 weeks prior, will be revised notably higher next week, came at 445K, on expectations of 455K, after last week was revised from 453K to 456K. Continuing claims, on the other hand, increased from 4,45K to 4,462K, while last week was revised, surprise, upward from 4,457K to 4,51K. At this point, however, good news is bad news, as any economic data that shows even the slightest positive inflection point weakens the QE2 argument. And if November 3 does not see Bernanke announce further easing, stocks will plunge. As for the tail end, those on extended claims and EUCs continue to seesaw, this time jumping by 255K in the week ended September 18, with extended claimants once again passing 1 million and those on EUCs over 4.1 million.


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Thu, 10/07/2010 - 08:43 | 631837 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

Rick Santelli pretty good again this morning covering claims and putting the beatdown on LIESman again.

He also brought up the legislation regarding the mortgage interstate notarization.

And he ended with a lovely new term for the next bailout--"placebo 2"--that made me spill my coffee.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 08:44 | 631839 TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

Video of Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass talking Fed, markets on CNBS.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 08:44 | 631840 Sircornflakes
Sircornflakes's picture

Puts baby, puts!

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 08:59 | 631874 Nigaz
Nigaz's picture

Puts on the truth?  Because you surely can't mean on stocks... they went down for a second on the number, and then people saw/heard Trichet and remembered the joke of CBs.  ES +8 immediately.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 08:46 | 631842 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

The binomial probability of an unbiased jobless claims estimate being revised upward 23 out of 24 times:  0.00000143%

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 08:52 | 631861 Dont Taze Me Bro
Dont Taze Me Bro's picture

I don't think they need to revise up. It just doesn’t matter anymore.

Perception is reality!

Unemployment up -> its not as bad it could have been -> Dow up +300 pts
Unemployment unchanged -> Economy is stabilizing -> Dow up +300 pts
Unemployment down -> Woot! Here is comes recovery -> Dow up +300 pts

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:05 | 631896 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture


Thu, 10/07/2010 - 08:52 | 631863 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

It is not unbiased.  Therefore, the probaility of the claims being revised upward 23 out of 24 times: 95%.  they were shooting to underestimate 100% of the time but there was an issue with the bureaucratic review process and 1 slipped by.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 08:47 | 631846 jesusonline
jesusonline's picture

Job losses in 2009 likely bigger than thought

The Labor Department on Friday will give an initial estimate of how far off its count of employment may have been in the 12 months through March. The government admitted earlier this year that its count through March 2009 had overstated employment by 902,000 jobs.

Yet another round of the Birth/Death fraud. This should serve to reinforce the scepticism one gotta have with regards to any piece of government-reported data.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 11:17 | 632208 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Thanks to Beer, Prescription Drugs and Teevee...
The Amerikan Rabble (Public) are both math and graph deficient...

Helped along by deliberately inadequate education and massive corporate propaganda...

The Teevee Box is God
The Amerikan Rabble believe everything they see on teevee and every number flashed at them with out regard to any logical validity...

9.5% unemployment, GDP expansion, jobless claims down, employment up, equities soaring, economic indicators point to recovery... The Rabble question none of it....

They NEED to BELIEVE... the sine qua non of a DUPE.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 08:52 | 631856 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


Thu, 10/07/2010 - 08:52 | 631857 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


Thu, 10/07/2010 - 08:52 | 631862 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Where's my union rep? This is harassment. ;)

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:08 | 631904 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Oops! I didn't know you where a union guy.

Just relax, take your brake but could you please not forget to punch out at 4 o'clock?

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 10:07 | 632045 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

"take your brake" makes me think of Karl from "Caddyshack"

"Correct me if I'm wrong, but if I kill all the golfers they're going to lock me up and throw away the key"

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 08:52 | 631859 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I still find it amusing that we focus on the number of individuals unemployed, and not the lost potential income from the sum of their former salaries or some measure of the benefits they'll draw relative to same.

Counting this way can hide employment trends like former 40-hour workers taking temp jobs or even recovery if good jobs are appearing while crap jobs are being added to the unemployment line.

Oranges != bananas.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:03 | 631886 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Control the argument > control the perception > control the outcome.

Propaganda 101

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:22 | 631930 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Gold is up to 1360, I guess the propaganda isn't really working.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:30 | 631947 Popo
Popo's picture

Yes, but the government appears to be failing badly at all three.

Except, even worse -- those in positions of power actually *do* seem to be believing their own bs.   This is actually having a compounded negative effect as we zig when we should be zagging.



Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:43 | 631978 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

We need to define "failure". Considering they've been able to keep the Ponzi going well past the point where many felt it would collapse under its own weight, I would say they've succeeded beyond their wildest dreams.

Not defending, just pointing out the obvious. While "everyone" seems to know they're being lied to, they still go to work, shop at WalMart and accept those dollars. Is it beginning to unwind? Sure it is. But not as fast as many thought.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:59 | 632027 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

I guess all those people that are standing behind the President when he gives a speech, smiling and nodding their heads up and down, are much more numerous than I thought. I always thought they were paid props that travelled with the administration, and were occasionally switching around in the background there. They even have a couple of WASP males that show up from time to time. But they look like they've never worked a day in their lives.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 08:56 | 631869 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

Wow just look at the magic futures go. Not a seller in sight. Up up up and away. Make free money buy SP500 they won't let it fall even a tiny bit.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:03 | 631885 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Yep, YOU GOT IT.  The spigot is wide open and the phantom rise is in effect.

Welcome to a true Banana Republic.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 08:57 | 631871 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

All gains come before cash market even opens. Buy the close sell the open.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 08:58 | 631872 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Wonder how big a miss they will report tomorrow for 2009? A million? That is a 13% miss way outside normal statistical confidence zones.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:04 | 631892 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Who cares?  They are pushing right now for a triple digit open on the DOW.  They'll do the same fucking shit tomorrow irrespective of what is reported.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:14 | 631919 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

whoa my math is way off...back to bed

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 08:59 | 631876 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

obama wire service AP reports claims as "better then expected" and in a

"positive trend"


no mention of revision.

MSM is mother of fraud

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:04 | 631888 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

SPY will gap open yet again, and we will drift for 6 1/2 hours in a 4 point range. The fix is in people, stock market is rigged to the upside. What ever you do don't try shorting this market going into the Nov election. Wait for any dip and get long.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:05 | 631898 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

A rigged partisian tool...where do you get this wild ass idea?

Hey!  Futures are way up!

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:24 | 631932 barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

could be but some people are predicting dollar up and stocks down coming soon. 

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:03 | 631890 Nigaz
Nigaz's picture

Even the much ZH-favored Bloomberg has said that stocks are higher on 'better than expected' or 'much better than expected' jobless claims 5 times in the first minute during the top of the hour, and the market isn't even open yet.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:31 | 631949 barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

they are supporting their holy roman empire

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:04 | 631891 captainscotty
captainscotty's picture

Those of us out in the real "Fight Club" world know that the Depression is just getting worse... So how many of your friends have not been able to pay their mortgages

for the past two years?

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:18 | 631924 gwar5
gwar5's picture

My next door neighbor (renter) is going through a divorce and says his ex is still living in the former house after the separation and has made no payment for over a year. He wants to get the rest of his stuff before the bank does.

Another, two houses up, told me 6 months ago the bank wanted to jack up his rate to something ridiculous on his business loan, so he filed for personal bankruptcy and told the bank to get in line. Same bank that has his home loan. Now he works for cash off the books and he's still there.

That's just within spitting distance of me. 

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:34 | 631960 captainscotty
captainscotty's picture

I ask myself every day how much longer can the banks just float along in the pile of shit they have made. The day will come when the real value of ALL the properties the banks own will be realized.... BAM.BAM.BAM  That will make 2008 look like a dress rehearsal  ...

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:05 | 631893 gwar5
gwar5's picture

It's election time: everybody has a job, the border is secure, and all the children are above average. 

PIMCO El-Arian is on CNBC right now, explaining he thought the last stimulus worked and prevented a depression, prepping a broad defense to Joe of large Fed moves on the table --- but defers discussing specific Fed moves... until tomorrow

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:08 | 631900 gigeze787
gigeze787's picture

(Politicized econ data) + (QE2 threat) + (POMO) = pre-election ramp to favor O & Dems.

The big question is why aren't the corrupt crony capitalist whores in the other party (Boehner, McConnell, etc.) screaming about how QE2 is anti-free market.

Oh, that's right, they don't believe in a free market any more than the Dems.

And because they know QE2 threat by Snow White & FOMC dwarves is not going to be be reality.




Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:10 | 631909 Nigaz
Nigaz's picture

Replace 'to favor O & Dems' with 'incumbants.'  Then you answered your own question, which it looks like you did on the next line anyway.

Almost every current congressman is bought and paid for by the bank lobby, so there's no doubt as to what is happening and why.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:29 | 631944 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

Gigeze you are spot on, it's all rigged to the upside.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:07 | 631902 Nigaz
Nigaz's picture

How much practice does it take for a Bankster to say 'strong dollar policy' without giggling or outright laughter?  I just tried in the mirror for a couple minutes and can't come close.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:12 | 631915 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Gold is taking out all the stops.....looks like control is being lost. They must pump the crap out of stocks to try to draw money away from Gold.....or at least die trying.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:33 | 631957 Nigaz
Nigaz's picture

Careful... as one of the biggest goldbugs around for the last decade, I smell a big smackdown on the way.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:41 | 631972 captainscotty
captainscotty's picture

That's right "Nigaz" they will wait for the right "long" signal and crash the market back to $1100.- just to show that they are the rulers...But in the end the real world will put the $GOLD:$INDU  ratio to 1:1 ...The Kondratieff Cycle

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:47 | 631990 Nigaz
Nigaz's picture

Well, I was waiting for the EUR to take out 1.40 as a trap (stops) and then start a maxpain USD rally, which would likely cause a commodity liquidation squeeze.  I'm not selling any gold/silver, since I no longer trade... but if I did still trade, I'd be positioning to benefit from a USD snapback / commodity dump.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:48 | 631994 captainscotty
captainscotty's picture



Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:28 | 631941 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Stock pumping is a waste of time, its not working and all poll numbers continue to fall. Why dont these idiots just give up, theyre not fooling anyone.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:32 | 631950 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

They will not stop.  They will simply push harder. 

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 11:33 | 632314 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hmmm well not according to the latest where central banksters promise to not debase currencies any more. So Q/E2 <risk off> or what?

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:29 | 631942 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Tough to be bearish on stocks when the banks refuse to break and teen retailers like ANF are gapping up $3 in the pre-market.

And gold continues to lead stocks.

And stocks continue to lead gold.

Chicken or egg?

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:32 | 631951 jesusonline
jesusonline's picture

Sure stocks continue to lead gold, like they continue to lead your hijacked self

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:33 | 631954 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

CNBC:  Dow Opens Near 11,000 as Stocks Rally After Jobless Claims Are Better Than Expected (story developing)

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:35 | 631962 Rider
Rider's picture

Hate that Punk Ben and his Helis.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:44 | 631981 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

All of the ingredients are in place for a top in equities...EUR/USD running into resistance at 1.40 (dollar close to capitulation), a large move up before earnings season (buy the rumor and sell the news), and a new moon tonight (usually signifies a local top after a run up and vice versa for a full moon).

Since you have time to read this I am going to ask you to come into work this weekend, OK, thanksss.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:49 | 631997 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yeaaaaa we need to talk about those TPS cover sheets Bill, greeeeaat.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:44 | 631982 Clark_Griswold ...
Clark_Griswold Hedge Mnger's picture

Its amazing how pre market, gold/silver takes off, as soon as they open the doors to the rest of us at 9:30:000001 seconds everything tanks real fast.

these guys are getting desperate.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 09:50 | 632001 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Clark next youll be taking us 200 miles out of our way to see the worlds largest ball of mud!

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 10:21 | 632053 nopat
nopat's picture

Initial claims decreases not because businesses are slowing the rate of firings due to a pick-up in the economy, but because they've shed all the low-hanging fruit and are having to dig deep in their bench (IIRC the STLFED put out a paper that analyzed employment as a business inventory).  Less people to fire + tougher firing decisions = less people fired.

Looking at initial claims, the change in continued, and the exhaustion rate tells a much different story.  Yes, labor is a trailing number, but you still have to do a reality check.  What, in the current economic environment, would drive employment north?  I'm having a hard time putting my finger on that one.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 10:41 | 632112 Nigaz
Nigaz's picture

"What, in the current economic environment, would drive employment north?"

A hurricane, is all I can pull out of my toolbag.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 11:33 | 632310 nopat
nopat's picture

Strong!  Absolutely brilliant. 

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 10:39 | 632105 captainscotty
captainscotty's picture

Basis of the Bear Market Rally

Submitted by Tim W Wood CPA on Fri, 1 Oct 2010


From that low the typical rally separating Phase I from Phase II began. Just as with the 1966 to 1968 rally, the longer this rally lasts and the more false breaks we see, the more convinced the public will become that this is a "new bull market." I know from my research what this bear market rally top will look like because I have identified a common DNA Marker that has appeared at every major top since 1896. I’m covering these details and developments in the research letters and updates at Cycles News & Views. This rally will top in accordance with those DNA Markers and will allow me to identify it. Therefore, based on my knowledge of Dow theory phasing I do not believe that we have seen the bear market bottom.

Read more:

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 10:53 | 632145 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

I have learned quite a bit of useful information from reading his published public work.  One area in which I am confounded is his view on gold which he thinks has already seen a cyclical top.  For someone who follows cycles religiously and even mentions Kontratieff Winter, he should know that the real price of gold rises in this period.  As a result, I would use his information as a general guide and not a map.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 11:03 | 632177 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Updated FTSE weekly chart:

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 11:56 | 632416 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

This is about the only site on the web that put a negative spin on the claims story this morning. Everyone else is rejoicing as if we solved the job crisis.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!