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Initial Jobless Claims Higher Than Consensus, Exhaustion Hits 144 Thousand In Prior Week
Even as initial jobless claims jumped by 7,000 to 480k in the week ended December 12, disappointing the consensus watchers which expected a number between 450-475k, the story continues to be in the exhaustion numbers where 144 thousand people dropped off continuing claims and shifted to either extended or EUC. And while EUC moderated from an increase of 328k to "only" 46 thousand, the combination of extended and EUC was worse than even the prior week, when the total of these two categories indicated 137 thousand had exhausted traditional insurance benefits.
We wonder how Comcast's pundits will spin the continuing labor exhaustion collapse today.
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but Larry Summers said that "everybody" agrees that the recession is OVER and that is good enough for me because he never lies
he is also the smartest guy in the room.
Please, this must be added to every comment about Mr. Summers. Kind of like the "m.d." for a doctor, "esq." for an attorney, or "douche bag asshole little phuck" for White House Chief of Staff.
Let's keep some protocol here at ZH.
+100
Smartest guy in the room (when he goes to the washroom)...
d.b.a.l.f.
I like that. It has a nice respectable ring to it.
DBALF is purrrrrrrrrr-fect. It can stand for sooooo many things. As an example, "doing business as a little-people phucker." Hat tip to DH for DBALF.
+100 DH - nice one!
James Grant is truly on of the smartest guys in the room.
He went from bearish to bullisht ...
But the picture is mixed ...
http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2009/12/interview-with-james-grant.html
but, but, but, Larry is a PimpHoBiotch compared to Marty Feldstein and old Marty said the recession isn't over! Oh gee, oh gosh, just who do I believe!?!?!?
Actually, ZH may have changed the way the Comcast pundits discuss this stuff, if only slightly. I heard things like, I'll have to check beyond the headline numbers and things along these lines.
....fade camera to a whimpering Dick Bove......
TD, I don't watch CNBS, so please post the latest Octagon sparring between Liesman/Santelli. I hope they are paying Santelli well for the walk-on part playing Hulk Hogan.
Their website posts the videos after the show is over. That is one thing they do pretty well.
Yesterday on the Mark Levine Show, he had a market analyst on who made an excellent point. EUC benefits will begin to run out for a lot of people in the middle of next year (which makes sense because the uptick in unemployment began in 2007).
Unless unemployment benefits get extended for a 5th time (which I suppose is a good possibility in the Barry Soetoro administration), these people will need to get part-time jobs or will drop off the unemployed rosters in the unemployment surveys conducted by the Dept. of Labor if the are "no longer looking for work."
The point, there is a built-in buffer for the jobless rate to begin falling next summer just in time for the election. And don't forget the 792,000 people the US Census will hire between now and April.
More ways for the plutocrats to make the numbers look better than they actually are.
you can count on more extensions
The "bread" line forms at the mailbox. I don't have a problem with EUC on principle, but I know of youngster slackers, living with the folks, who have now been drawing longer than their total employment history. We shouldn't be printing money for that.
How dare you. I've been out of work for three months after working for almost ten years straight.
You fail to mention that if it wasn't for baby boomers refinancing their houses every three months to buy a new car or some granite countertops and playing a bunch of fucking financial games, the economy wouldn't have taken the turn it did, and maybe we could all still be employed...
All us young people want is a chance to work hard and earn like the people before us.
Hey brother can you spare a gulfo?
Does that mean the unemployment rate is going to drop to 9.8% , I see green shoots everywhere, gold down dollar up ,sigh.
I believe one of the reasons there was such a huge disparity in the November ADP vs the BLS survey (158,000) along with a adjustment by the BLS of -275K in unemployed while ADP had a total two month adjustment of 10K may have been an act of desperation since that have already announced a + 828K adjustment for all of 2009 in unemployed.
2010 being an election year and strangely enough, with none of their policies working despite the constant fiddling by the BLS (snort), I suspect the BLS threw all caution to the wind.
With unemployment claims rising and all the other stats giving lie to the notion that things are improving, this is just one more knock against this administration that will ultimately sweep Dems from Power in 2010. After all, most people vote against elected officials, not for them. Add in this piece of shit Health reform Bill which is nothing more than a huge bail out for insurance companies at the direct expense of taxpayers, Obama will have made Jimmy Carter one of the happiest men on the plant as he will no longer be number 1 on the list of the most ineffective Democratic Presidents.
And who will people vote for? The Republicans who caused the mess in the first place?
I seem to remember record prosperity and budget surpluses before we handed the keys to W. (Not to mention NO WAR, among other things)
"NO WAR" - huh?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_United_States_military_operations
Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia
Well actually there are few democratic policies in action. Very few proposed, and very few with a shot of passing. Because those that hold democrat ideals, aren't in power. It's the republican gang of 12, I'm sorry, democrats who should be republicans. You'd really like them, they really are republicans, but had a distaste for what you were pushing, and thus became dems. They're not REAL dems, but they count that way in the media. Which means everyone holds us to account for dem ideals. Even though that's not what we have. See what we have is a three party system. We have one party called the democrats, which is really a combination of the old two party system. So the democrats are really a combo of the old democrat/republicans, and the republicans are besides a few, completely whacko stone cold, f*** nuts. That's the truth. That's the facts. Any of those 'dems' would have made Reagan proud, and been proud 80's republicans. Except now they're listed as democrats, even though they don't support democrat ideals like single payer, thus not making them 'real democrats'. But hey, nothing is perfect, you gotta roll with what you got.
So what we got is people like Lieberman acting like a fool, dems saying we don't want to pay for healthcare? What? That's like a republican saying no to bush. It never happened. But yet we call these people democrats, or they 'caucaus' with the dems.
What we have is Obama continuing the Bushies and Wall Street's and thus Britatin's policy desires for us. We lost our soverignity long ago. Just not in name.
A regular democrat that isn't under the influence of Britain (JFK, FDR just about the only ones the last 100 years), would have pushed for economic policies. Like what? 25 dollar minimum wage, passed the HPBA of 2007, they would cancel the bailouts, and I could really list about 100 things, probably 50 of which even the other side would agree to.
If you think the gov't is being run by democrats, you are oblivious to the fact that the real democrats aren't in power. Only the Wall street/Queen of England crowd are.
Why do you think the 'left' is mad? Becuase so far, I haven't seen anything medium of value being done that is a democrat policy. I've seen Obama address issue #1040, 1059, 2053. Not #1-10. The only democrat issues that have passed are so irrelevant to the bigger issues, it's a joke and half that dems are in power. Power in NAME only. What's that called PINO. A bunch of DINO's, ruining our name, and our cause.
The only one I can think of is stem cell research, and extending unemployment benefits (even a repub would of had to done that last one given the circumstance)
Democrat healthcare? I don't see a democrat healthcare bill. I see a really crappy healthcare bill that won't change a thing, give billions to health care industry, create a mandate, and in it has some poison pills that will make any democrat who voted for it, hate themselves for years to come. Peter Orszag, Simon Stevens, Rahm Emmanuel, and the list goes on. These guys aren't democrats. They are just listened to and consulted by some DINO's. Unfortunately they run the country.
I'm 31, and in many ways I'm still waiting for a democrat to be president. Clinton was very 'center' and did everything Wall Street asked. So is Obama. Carter, please, the trilateral commission kept any D for democrat out of Carter.
It's really a toss up of what will happen in 2010 elections. Do the people bolt from the democrats because of the republican mess, or because of obama's mess? Do they vote for idiots like Michelle Bachman en masse. Because I'm sorry, you guys get a bunch of bachman's up there (which is all that are running pretty much), and Obama will seem like a seer compared to them.
You elect 100 MIchelle Bachman, you'll be beggin for Obama, or Bush, or Nixon to be back in power, I guarantee it. You'll be 100x more dissapointed that we are about Obama. I guarantee it.
So who do you want running the economy? Dumb or Dumber?
Well I say dumb, which is dems, and actually use our brain to kick out the retards that are in my party (making us dumb). You don't support single payer, see ya. You want to back wall street, see ya. Real democrats have answers, just wall street and the queen won't back them, obviously. Instead the Rahm Emmanuel facist policies are bringing the dems down like bush did to the repubs. Except the repubs were complcit. The dems are fighting tooth and nail, and it's about to get more ugly. Go Howard Dean! Tell them where to stick it.
The current repubs in power, and those running, have no effen clue how to govern. They want to govern, so they can call themselves Goveneor. It's about title, not governing with them. They're idiots. Not all, just 95 percent in office. I'd rather take my chances with dems who only have about 10-30 percent idiots. You can purge 10-30 percent, you can't purge 95.
Party of no, party of no ideas, party of no good ideas. That's the truth. It's not made up, it's not an exaggeration. They are for kickbacks, for low taxes (for them, you suffer inflation), wars, cronyism, denial of truth, and just plain idiocy. That's been their policy for 40 years. If you don't see that, you are blind, and no amount of reason will reach you.
I'm sorry a 6th grade Student council meeting says more pertient things than any republican pretty much not named Ron Paul. Even then he's an idiot about many things. But, the part he's right about, oh is he so right about.
Even then, he's far, far better than any of the other characters that Micheal Steele puts out there. Every single new person, Jindal, Michael Steele, are complete idiots, complete tools, complete frauds. Michael Steele = worse version and REAL version of Carlton Banks from Fresh Prince of Bel-Aire, and you can't take that idiot serious. That fact he's chairman of the republican party shows how podunk it has become. Seriously. I cannot respect the current republican party, but even though I have disagreements with Ron Paul, I 100 percent respect him. Because he is an adult, the rest are in diapers.
Meanwhile they've had a year or two to form policy differences from the last congress/bush term. What have they come up with? Nothing. Not one thing besides tax cuts, which is part of the reason we GOT here (was also bush's biggest so called accomplishment). The solution is not more of the problem, and when that's your only solution, there's major problems.
Everyone got their 250 dollar checks, but that person then faced 3k in increased costs. Great tax cut! If you're rich. Otherwise you got 5 cents on the dollar for the increases in prices that came as a result of the tax cut.
So, being that I try to be optimistic and overstate the intelligence of my fellow american at large, I really have to think that the average american who has woken up to the republican bs, can't go back and vote for them, because their policies, their ideas, have not improved since then. IN FACT, they're worse off.
I'd rather have the 2004-2006 Republican congress in power than a potential 2010 republican congress in power. Because as bad as that republican congress was, it would be light years ahead of what a 2010 republican congress would be. Guaranteed.
Why? Because instead of running more ron paul's, all I see are more Michelle Bachman's. Sorry I don't think MB has the chops to be a PTA head, let alone a house member talking about serious matters.
So you guys need to do your part. Our side needs to do ours and get real progressives in there. Dems, are serious. There has been no slouching since 2000. We've been fighting hard for change since then, and will continue to until it happens. Now that we have power, we've already proven we won't bow to Obama (even though he came in with far more mandate or coattails than Bush ever had).
We'll hit Obama as hard as we hit Bush. Because it's not about the person, it's about the policy. We won't let our personal feelings for how we felt about Obama, destract us from the prize that was from BEFORE obama. He is just the conduit for us. We aren't something formed from him, there is no obama nation, or obama servitude (like there was bush) unlike what alot of repubs say.
Just because repubs went blind for bush, doesn't mean we will be blind for Obama. I for one will never be, and when I look around, that's all I see from my fellow dems. Not one of them is as positive about Obama, as repubs were about Bush even in 2004 and beyond.
The real question is, when will be wake up and start holding the real culprits responsible? Because people like Jay Rockefeller and Michelle Bachman are only holding us back.
ZH good job of getting the word out (even if it took embarassing CNBC). I read Bloomberg's piece on it this AM and they also are now including extended benefits in their intitial press statement. Thanks
... with a hat tip to Rick Santelli, whose beatdown of Steve Liesman last week on EUC was one for the ages.
These numbers indicate that the Fed's accomodative stance will continue and increases the likelihood of Stimulus II (actually III, but who's counting). So it's bullish for the market. Buy! Buy! Buy!
It's like the old Hollywood adage, "There is no such thing as bad publicity". "There is no such thing as bad economic news"
Which can only mean one thing:
DOLLAR RALLY!!!
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/labor_dept_available_labor_rate
They are setting the stage for a Q1/2010 peak in unemployment. After everyone has fallen off the list the only direction for unemployment is happytalk.
As I've been saying, Americans need to starve the US government of tax revenue.
Stop spending. Live like a total miser for a couple of months.
Pay off your debts.
Max out your 401k contributions (preferably buying gold or foreign currencies, or maybe if you are a market timer some short-term t-bills prior to the dollar rally that will likely come in the near term---in which case you can buy even more gold at $50 to $100 an ounce or so lower).
Go back to school and take a couple of classes on the government's dime (almost all Americans get a $2,000 refundable tax credit under Obama's American Opportunity Tax Credit).
Let's make the deficit $2 trillion so we can bring about real change by making the inevitable come more quickly.
"Pay off your debts.
Max out your 401k contributions"
You're joking right? Can you put away the crack pipe or do you have a magic wand that you're not sharing with the rest of the class?
Would you rather pay the government the amount of your maximum contribution multiplied by your marginal tax rate?
Or would you rather keep this for yourself?
Then again, if you don't pay income taxes because you don't work, then its a wash.
I work, so I'd rather keep the 33% I save on my marginal tax rate than to pay it to Obama Administration to give to the banksters, unions, and other theives the adminisrations supports.
And if you work the tax system right (particularly if you are self-employed), this can add up to about $15,000 a year.
I was referring more to the "pay off your debts" part.
As I've been saying, Americans need to starve the US government of tax revenue.
Stop spending. Live like a total miser for a couple of months.
Pay off your debts.
Max out your 401k contributions"
EXACTLY,...
EXACTLY WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(Your suggestion is EXACTLY what will aid in perpetuating this fucking-joke/crime of an economy)
Max-Out Every drop of credit you can get your hands on, buy physical Gold and Silver with it, THEN DEFAULT!
THAT's how you change the SYSTEM!
ABUSE IT TO THE Nth degree, just like the Elites are doing.
(Umm, If you haven't noticed, that's what they are doing to us, abusing the system to the Nth Degree).
Wake-Up, or you deserve to keep those shackles that you have locked around your OWN wrists!
It always kills me that any statistician or any human being with half a brain couldn't see that unemployed means unemployed, no matter if they are no longer collecting benefits or on EUC or whatever. Nevermind the quality or pay of the job if they do in fact get employed again.
Can we call this a Hopeless Recovery yet?
Beginning of an upside surprise in 2010 for the US labor market?
There should be a new rule here on ZH. No "Democrat vs Republican" talk on these boards! They are all the same shit.
Only talk about the ones with a conscience (1% of Congress) vs evil spineless leeches (99% of Congress).
Closer to 0.2%, but I agree with you, no matter the math.
Agreed. Light gray vs. charcoal gray is a paradigm whose lifespan is, hopefully, dwindling.
I agree that both are largely ineffective. However, I seem to remember record prosperity under the last Democrat president, before a certain village idiot took over.
It's only fitting that Republicans would want such a rule. I mean, look at your avatar, buddy. There's not any secret about whose side of the fence you're on.
Who you going to vote for? Palin? LMAO.
Obvious troll is obvious.
Actually I'm neither a Republican nor a Democrat. I've been a registered Independent for the last 20 years. I actually voted for Obama. He is a joke like the rest of them. At least he's not as blatant and moronic and blatantly moronic as Bush Jr.
If Obama is not proof enough that it doesn't matter who's placed in office, and that it is the Vampire Squid (Central Bank, GS, JPM, etc and don't forget the Mother Squid in Europe) that has total control, then I don't know what is...
Bull.
1) the "prosperity" is what the rest of us call the dotcom bubble, not actually, you know, a healthy economy
2) gov't spending was checked by a Repub congress that wasn't completely corrupted yet, not by Dem restraint
3) the military was allowed to decay. for anyone who is isn't a Truther, surprise--we got 9/11
4) the village idiot is starting to look a lot better. do you seriously argue that the stimulus or cash for clunkers were a step forward?
http://blog.heritage.org/2009/03/24/bush-deficit-vs-obama-deficit-in-pic...
The last time these numbers came out, Liesman posted some comments on the boards here at ZH which resulted in a lot of discussion. In particular, as detailed in this article Liesman gave total change in NSA unemployment as the sum of the change in Continuing Claims, Extended Benefits, and EUC. His numbers for the week of Nov. 21 were
Continuing Claims: -299k
Extended Benefits: -190k
EUC: +327k
total = -299k -190k +327k = -162k
I explained in comment #160627 exactly where these numbers came from (and also mentioned that the raw data is here).
I pointed out that if Liesman had used the next week's projected numbers from the government's report, his totals would have been:
Continuing Claims: +591k (the big change)
Extended Benefits: -190k (see note below)
EUC: +327k (see note below)
total = +591k -190k +327k = +728k
(NOTE: Retaining non-projected numbers since no projection for next week was given in the government's report.)
Notice the huge overall change, which challenged his assertion that unemployment had gotten much better.
Now that the actual report has come out, the calculation can be updated:
Continuing Claims: 5399111-4791751 = +607360
Extended Benefits: +97837
EUC: +45922
total = +607360 +97837 +45922 = 751119 = +751k
So the NSA numbers, as calculated with the "Liesman Method", are even worse than the projected numbers from last week might have indicated (although maybe for unexpected reasons; the EUC went down while the Extended Benefits went up -- did they shift people from EUC to Extended?).
Btw, the government's projected numbers were very close to what they actually came out with the next week. They project a drop in total NSA unemployment in the next report so be prepared. To put it briefly, the projected total (repeating the calculation above) is (5176122 - 5399111) + 97837 + 45922 = -79k.