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Insider Selling Outpaces Buying By Over 650-To-1 In Past Week

Tyler Durden's picture




 

According to Bloomberg, for the week ended September 10, corporate insiders bought $0.5MM in shares in 4 different companies. This was offset by sales of $332MM in 72 different companies, a ratio of 651 of sellers to buyers. At least companies are making their opinions known on the viability of the latest bear market rally. The suckers? All those who are still not involved in the rigged casino but actually buying.

 

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Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:11 | 578241 RobD
RobD's picture

OT but silver just went vertical!

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 11:03 | 578355 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

such a head's up is never OT.  :)

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:11 | 578245 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

These dumbasses are going to miss the rally.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:19 | 578270 percolator
percolator's picture

lol, yeah what do they know!

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 11:15 | 578400 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

Insiders are always the last to know what's going on. Stick with the algo's - they're much smarter.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:12 | 578247 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Selling before the fall volatility and tax increases.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:15 | 578255 RobD
RobD's picture

Yes, nobody wants to contribute to Obama's stash lol.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:19 | 578272 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

I heard he's giving some more away today in downtown Detroit, I'll see you there!

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:15 | 578260 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

So if insiders are not buying, and mutual funds are not buying, I am not buying, and Leo has a small...account, then who is buying stocks? 

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:25 | 578282 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture
MUTUAL FUNDS ARE “ALL IN”

 

13 September 2010 by TPC 

Eric King posted this interesting chart showing mutual fund cash levels.   According to King mutual fund cash level has declined to its lowest levels ever:

“The percentage of liquid assets (aka mutual cash levels) was 3.4% in July.  This is the lowest percentage cash level ever and is near levels that accompanied the 2007 equity market peak.”

 

 

You’re likely familiar with the myth of cash on the sidelines, however, if mutual fund managers are any sign of bullishness it’s clear that they’re quite bullish. The last two times we witnessed cash levels near these levels were directly before the 1999 market implosion and the 2008 market debacle. Surely it’s unwise to use any single indicator to make market decisions, however, this is one macro indicator that is worth noting.

 

http://pragcap.com/mutual-funds-are-all-in

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 11:15 | 578350 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Quite bullish?  Just because a someone has every night open on his or her calendar does not mean he or she is going to get laid.  The funds are keeping so little cash on hand because they are starving for return. 

Spalding, do you understand the difference between the mutual fund industry's average cash position and the industry's weekly cash outflows? 

In the week ended September 1, domestic equity mutual funds saw $7.5 billion in outflows: the biggest one week outflow in 2010 since the $13.4 billion redeemed in the Flash Crash week. The trend developing is simple: retail investors withdraw increasingly greater numbers in weeks in which the market is down even a little, and withdraw just a little in weeks in which the low-volume melt up presents them with an opportunity to get out at a better price level. Of course, the common thread is that as we have said for 18 consecutive weeks, retail just wants out. And now that, courtesy of Mary Schapiro, retail has finally put two and two together, and knows that even the regulators are concerned about redemptions, which are perceived by the SEC as being a function of distrust in market structure, we now fully expect more and more redemptions.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/retail-capitulation-stock-outflows-surge-just-under-10-billion-18th-consecutive-week-record-

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 11:03 | 578353 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

OR ... their cash is all being used for redemptions as they hold onto positions and PRAY!!!

Hopefully they will take this opportunity to sell to the HFT computers and increase their level of cash... but I bet the calls are going wild from the big banks begging the mutual funds to stay invested... and the banks are promising to keep the market up.

BTW, notice no insider selling at banks ... I am sure orders have gone out that no selling is allowed.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 11:54 | 578494 Pillage
Pillage's picture

check the list again

BK       Bank of New York Mellon Cor       318,753      12,500       25.50

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 14:29 | 578892 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Yeah darn how could I have missed the 12500 shares of one bank near the bottom of the list ... lol .... thanks.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 12:25 | 578572 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

That's what I think - they are meeting redemptions with cash and trying to hold stocks. I think that was the point of the Miller piece a month or more back, where he was pounding the table for people to buy stocks. What he really was hoping for at least would be a stop in the redemptions. 

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 11:08 | 578368 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Again, who's buying? Cash is low nothing to put to work. Plus they need cash for outflows so they need to sell.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:16 | 578262 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

its past ten now. by ten thirty the game is over till 3:30. What's everyone doing? any good movies around?

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:37 | 578303 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

"Resident Jenny does a aftermath" seems to be good. I'm downloading it as we speak :)

 

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 12:16 | 578554 Irwin Fletcher
Irwin Fletcher's picture

Machete. Awesome.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:17 | 578266 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

Insider selling was rampant at the Mar 2009 trough as well as after
that.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:33 | 578290 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

That's correct. IIRC, there were ZH articles about it around a year ago. Those sellers missed a great run-up.

I'm not saying that the market is going up here. Just that insider selling isn't necessarily a reliable indicator.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 11:06 | 578362 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Yes, but the run up was not based on fundamentals ... it was a crooked casino pump by the banks and computers.

If that is what "investors" want to depend on, then that is their choice. Make a guess which way the casino owner computers will jam the markets and then pray.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 12:21 | 578564 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Here it is.. The day when the deal was made...March 2009, shortly after Warren Buffett announced that the economy had fallen off a cliff! All the bankers go to Washington to discuss tarp payback? NOT!

http://www.thedailytruffle.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/bankers_repay_0605.jpg

 

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:17 | 578267 Alchemist
Alchemist's picture

If you want to know what companies really think about their valuations - look at the pace of buybacks that are being ramped up

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:19 | 578271 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

Shhh, don't tell James Altucher about this. He thinks the smart money should be buying right now.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:35 | 578300 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyre all simply trying to offload the pump to retail, and failing. Nothing for the banksters to be happy about here, as cannibalism is the next step.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:21 | 578277 No Mas
No Mas's picture

Outflows from equities continue unabated.  Insider trading shows those in the know have decided to go.  Economic reporting is no longer fudged but outright falsified.  Yet, up goes the market.

Defies logic so again I ask, who is willing to fight the Fed?  Seems it will require a rather large press of one's own to fight BB.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:23 | 578279 crosey
crosey's picture

Swing trade on Dr. Pepper, or 3:1 selloff?

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:29 | 578287 4shzl
4shzl's picture

They're not selling -- they're "diversifying."  Or may be you prefer the term "re-balancing" . . .

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 11:11 | 578379 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Why Bother? It's all correlated.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:31 | 578288 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

Silver will show the way...

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:34 | 578289 SheHunter
SheHunter's picture

Looks like retailers and the safe havens along with some of the smaller banks saw selling.  Not so much the industrials and metals- sticks and stones companies.  That said I'm sidelined from trading either direction.  $USD too weak (right now) to go short.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:33 | 578293 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Irrelevant.  The market is now in the kung-fu grip of the treaserve.

Look at the fucking monkey pump at 9:45 and the ramrodding afterwards.  We're going 20 handles higher on the SPX by close.

I wonder what those assholes at Jackson Hole decided to do?  Any guesses?

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:41 | 578311 SheHunter
SheHunter's picture

You mean besides dining at Burke's?

 

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:33 | 578295 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hmmm looks like a great reason to be bull dancing like CNBC is, nevermind reality we've got some stawk pumpin to do!!

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:33 | 578297 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

How about insider trading...more like 33 Liberty St. trading activities? 

 

<OT>I like todays set up for Wed takedown.</OT>

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:46 | 578318 Pining for the ...
Pining for the Fjords's picture

Firstdivision-  explain, please.  Are you calling a managed ('cause it is all managed, apparently) down day Wed, and if so based on what?  

More and more I am wondering just which dominant dynamic will win out in the coming weeks-  the poor Treasury auctions last week pushing the TPTB to roil the market and scare more investors into the "sure thing", or the need to create happy happy joy joy before the mid-terms.   Just wondering if it is time to bust-out my epic short...

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 11:05 | 578360 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

It is my opinion that Best Buy's sales numbers will be quite dismal (even though EPS will "just miss"), giving more creedence to the idea that the consumers are not consuming.  The inventory builds were more than likely a smoke screen to cover the true underlying reality that the economy is still moving into contraction mode.  Z1 credit has been contaracting for the past 3 (and more than likely 4) quarters.  We have a lipsticked up delevegraging in progress in some sectors.  It is not difficult to put together that we are in an unsustainable "recovery" due to jobs still not being created to match currently unemployed (that want to work) and new labor entering the markets.  We are just trying to cover up the fact that we are Japan in 1998.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 11:14 | 578395 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Have you been to a store lately? Like a ghost town. They aren't even stocking many things now. Their latest grab was to start selling used games like gamestop.

Their tv prices have been in free fall with all the makes and price drops. Inventory and margins gotta be a bitch.

Yet the gem of the summer iPad, was not even carried in most of their stores.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 11:39 | 578456 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I haven't been in a Best Buy for awhile now, but I drive by a few each week (both during the week and on weekends), and make close obersvations of the parking lot.  Used to be on weekends, you would be lucky to get a parking space at the end of the rows after 10am.  Now the parking lots are about 1/10 utilized (and I wonder how many of the cars infront of the store are now employees).  I could wager a guess that I could walk through the stores blindfolded and would not run into a single customer. 

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 11:35 | 578434 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I wouldn't be busting up on an epic short just yet, unless you are looking at add some OTM 2011 Puts.  With the VIX so low, options would be a great way to go right now.  I am just afraid that Best Buy's problems will be brushed aside for the short term, until a lot more big indicator co's report missed revenues.  We have already seen some semi's lower their revenue forecasts for this and next quarter.  The straw that will break the camels back into reality will be consumer staples missing revenues.  In the short term we will have a definite pull-back building up.  Technicals are all pointing overbought (so algos will catch that), and with revenue misses that I expect, fundamentals will be downward pointing as well.  But again, this market is anyone's guess.  The old adage to not fight the Fed does work, but the falls come so quick and far, that even betting on the Fed is losing at this time.  These POMO sales are having diminishing returns that are quickly gaining less relevance.  A major pull back should occur in November/December, but could accelerate with more stalling in Washington as any "stimulus" will be stopped, and a true QE2 will be but a wet dream of the markets.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 12:57 | 578644 Pining for the ...
Pining for the Fjords's picture

Great info- I appreciate your opinion.  I'm keeping my epic short in the closet for a bit, but damn it wants to come out...  it keeps nagging and bugging me.  I'll let it loose soon.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 16:40 | 579244 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

I'm looking at late February/early March 2011 for the start of a long wind-down extending through about the same time in 2012.  From there it will mostly be low volatility dead cat bouncing in the S&P 630's - 690's indefinately until something of signficant consequence happens.  What that is or when I have no idea.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 13:43 | 578757 Gromit
Gromit's picture

Come on VIX I want to see 19!

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:38 | 578307 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

As Leo would say:

They are selling their own stock to buy solars!

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:47 | 578316 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

It Looks like the big boys under estimated the power of the internet.

They can't hide this stuff anymore

Next they will put a shutoff switch on it. (net)

Wait a minute ? didn't ................naw !

 

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 13:59 | 578805 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

We are one market panic away from a suspension of the FOIA and a blackout on MSM reporting on market movements. Outfits like CNBC are already pimping themselves as the lapdogs for the administration disinformation program. Please master tell us what to say!

It will all be in the interest of NatSec, dontchaknow, and we'll all be communist traitors. When that happens, we can hope that the ZH tips line lights up and we get all that defeatist left-wing subversive information anyway.

Which answers the question: Why did zerohedge locate their servers off-shore?

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:49 | 578323 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

There's a bullish indicator if I ever saw one.

Not.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 11:04 | 578354 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Watch as USTs skyrocket. The bond bubble still has growth potential!

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 11:07 | 578364 GlassHammer
GlassHammer's picture

In order to survive most large companies are dumping stocks, getting cash, and buying small companies.

It reminds me of the 1999-2002.

 

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 11:09 | 578371 Ancona
Ancona's picture

This is nothing new, althoug the selling seems to be picking up pace recently. Heavy insider selling has been going on for quite some time.

 

The writing is definitely on the wall, so do what you've got to do.

 

Silver just made a very nice jump, and seems to be defying gravity for the moment. I guess JPM and HSBC let the Boyz take the morning off.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 11:10 | 578375 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Updated DOW weekly chart:

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 11:59 | 578511 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Well, we know where the HNZ money is going.  "Botched Joke" has a new home port in MA, and Mamma T needs some cash flow to pay MA taxes and get the new berth set up.

- Ned

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 12:41 | 578595 Ace Ventura
Ace Ventura's picture

Sorry for the clueless inquiry here, but who/what/why is buying all the stuff the insiders are selling?

Ex: who bought 20,000 shares of Emerson Electric? For that matter who bought 4.5 million shares of Ltd. Brands Inc.?

Knowing nothing else.....shouldn't a 650-1 ratio be considered something of an 'oh-shit' indicator?

 

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 13:48 | 578771 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Something tells me that if the 650-1 ratio were not important we would not be reading an article about it.   The buyers are the usual crowd, at lower prices.   What's not to understand?  I was not one of those buyers -- of any stock, at any price.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 15:15 | 579008 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

aw, c'mon Rocky, you'd buy accenture at a penny--I know it.  'course, you'd dump it at 0.05 on the dead coon bounce.

- Ned

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 16:52 | 579264 Geoff-UK
Geoff-UK's picture

Who's buying all this stuff?

You and I are--via our broker, Ben Bernake.  Investing taxpayer's money means never having to say you're sorry...

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 13:50 | 578779 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Nobody sees these aggregate numbers, until they show up on ZH. I doubt mutual fund managers are even allowed to read here. Yes, I know how to program a firewall.

As for who is the buyer ... there is a lot of fiat money floating around right now but the rules on how much cash to hold in the portfolio have changed little, and the idea all along was to push so much cash into institutional hands that they would be desperate to buy literally anything that turns up.

Buying because you have to because you have too much cash on hand is not really sound investing. It's investing with a gun at your head. Most of these trades would be sucker trades, greater-fool trades, the people who have the freedom to get out and live fisting off the drones who have to stay in or die.

Out there, somewhere, mutual fund managers are drinking themselves to death. They might as well, nobody will want their organs for donations after they've jumped from the 20th floor.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 13:29 | 578727 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Abandon ship.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 13:45 | 578763 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Sounds like some of that "insider information" is majorly suckish.

I'm with some of the others here in doubting all public-telegraphed moves as propaganda; watch what they do, not what they say. Well this seems to fall in the "what they do" category, something sneaky most will never notice nor reflect on. These are tenacious rats, and when they jump overboard you should be standing at the rail yourself, if not in the water already.

Mon, 09/13/2010 - 13:51 | 578782 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

When you are scared and selling, you pretty don't much pay attention to what is "telegraphed" to the public, especially when you don't have an option not to report same.

Wed, 09/15/2010 - 23:35 | 584614 Terra-Firma
Terra-Firma's picture

The next black swan is a clone of the first because nobody in their right minds believes the FED or any government can keep trying to fool the people into fooling themselves into believing that nobody is being fooled and that the economy is just fine. Look at stocks after all. Fool!

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