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Insurance, Weather, Goldie and the SNB
I Hate United Healthcare
I posted an early version of this letter last year. I’m pissed enough
and I think this is relevant enough from me to put up the latest
version.
This letter and the pricing structure contained in it has been approved
by the NYS Insurance Commissioner. These rates are not inconsistent with
what a different insurance provider would charge. For a family of four
in NY it now costs $67,634 per year to buy health insurance.
If you live in NY you have to pay an extra 8% tax on income. This hit
coupled with the IRS gets one easily over the 40% mark. To make an after
tax income of $67k one has to earn $113K. And that is just to cover an
insurance bill. Forget about what everything else in life costs. For
what it is worth the average income in NYS is $47k
The brave folks in D.C. are working on plans of how to fix this problem.
We have to wait another three years for any benefits from Obamacare,
and in all likelihood that plan is going out the door. I have to wonder
how many people are going to die as a result of this mess.
Question: Have others gotten similar letters to this in the past month or so?
Weather is Changing – Hang on Gulf Coast
The super La Nina we have been struggling through has broken. From NOAA:
La Niña
weakened for the third consecutive month, as reflected by increasing
surface and subsurface ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific
Ocean.
What are the computers telling us what will come next?
Nearly
all of the ENSO models predict La Niña to continue weakening in the
coming months, and the majority of models indicate a return to
ENSO-neutral by May-June-July 2011.
Here is the chart of the computer forecasts. The ones that worry me are
those that are projecting an ENSO of +1 by the summer's end. This
condition has brought us active hurricane seasons in the past.
What might the weather patterns be if we do get back to La Nina conditions? History says it will be dry in the West, hot in the South and wet in the North East.
Take a look at the pacific jet stream during La Nina. Does it appear to blow directly from Fukushima to the United States? Looks that way to me.
The Goldie Call
Many observers of the markets have already commented on the Goldman
call(s) this week for a break in commodities pricing trends. (Zero Hedge link) I'll toss in my two cents.
I guess there is a possibility that GS is putting out this word as a public service message. But I highly doubt that. Three times in one week is manipulation in my book.
Buy the dip on this one. Goldman is setting up a bear trap. They should just shut up. They can trade their book all they want. But they are taking their book and that is quite another matter.
Who’s losing in FX?
Did you notice that the USDCHF solidly broke 90 last week? The Swiss can
blame Bernanke for this. The CHF is not so strong against the Euro
these days. This is a dollar move.
The Swiss economy is not very dependent on the dollar exchange rate. The
Euro link is a much bigger headache for them. But the drop in the
dollar is hurting the Swiss people in a different way. The Swiss
National Bank is getting killed (again) on their reserve holdings. This
is a recent breakdown of their portfolio:
How bad are those losses? From the end of 2010 till the close on Friday
it comes to $4 billion. It’s even worse when you go back to June of last
year. In a little over nine months their USD book has cost them a very
lumpy $15 billion. That comes to a tidy $2,000 for every citizen. That
may not seem like a big bundle for all those rich folks in Switzerland.
But consider the magnitude of this error. If each American took an FX hit of $2,000 it would come to $600b. Heads would role if that happened.
The SNB has dug themselves a hole. They can’t get out of it. This hole
will have to get bigger. Keep in mind that every dollar of these losses
is a dollar is spec hands. The SNB is making hedge funds/bankers rich. What a silly system we have.
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$2000 in losses per citizen is a lot of money. But when it comes at the end of 65 years of having had reserves in a (relatively) stable currency, it doesn't hurt too much. And these reserves probably haven't been without fringe benefits, such as significant Fed lending to Swiss banks with US operations.
But measuring foreign reserves in terms of dollars per citizen is hardly the best metric when the reserves were amassed to guarantee what must be trillions of dollar-denominated deposits in the country.
As long as the Dollars are lent to speculators who create jobs and pay taxes in the country, it's probably not that bad a deal.
And this wingnut obsession with Switzerland being a "rich" country is tiresome, and, dare I say, a little odd. Into the 1940s, many went barefoot in some parts of the country. Into the 1990s, the US was a significantly richer country on a purchasing power parity basis. If the US sends it manufacturing jobs to China and lets millions of low-skilled immigrants in, and Germany adopts millions of low-skilled ex-Communists, it seems to me that it's a little bizarre to worry about why a country that hasn't made such choices is prosperous.
The point is that Switzerland seems to have worldwide a perpetual licence of being a rich country. That used to be and changing fast.
I f I had to chose a country where to bring my money, it would certainly not be Switzerland (probably Singapur). The problem here in Switzerland is that we have the same incompetent politicians as in the United Socialism of America or the clowns of the EU.
"bring it to gold" has been the answer for a decade now. so indeed "why is Switzerland a safe haven?" i think is the question trying to be answered "by the wingnut" here. it is a fascinating question indeed since clearly "we here in the States are just a LITTLE bit on the profligate side."
Comment on the SNB :
Here in CH, things get slowly out of control. The 15bn$ losses on USD is nothing compared to the losses in the EUR-CHF purchases since 8 months , unfortunately Mr.Hiltebrand (SNB president) doesnt disclose any numbers,but estimates are in the 40-50 bn range (quite huge for a 7million country). Another huge problem is that Switzerland has a massive import of foreign people (we have already the highest percentage of foreign people with 30%). The reason for this is that it's very easy to get unemployment or social benefits and it's much higher than anywhere else: an unemployed person can easily get 4000$ a month during 2 years and the move to Social Help and get 3000$ a month. For those interested in this thematic, please read the last week's edtion of "Weltwoche" with all details. Switzerland used to be a safe haven once but this has changed a lot. In Zürich eaxh days criminal attacks on the street happen but they are never related by the medias. As prisons are full, the deliquents usually are out the next day and do it again.
X, Tks for this insight.
Don't bother "escaping" to NYC or LA.
But watch "Escape from LA" to see what the US will be like under president Huckabee.
Health Insurance Cost are over the top.
If you are self employed and have an establish a Corp (LLC etc), with employees, I would look to your local New York State chamber of commerce to enroll in a chamber group policy. BC/BS has some affordable policies, if you go for the high deductible your annual premium for a family is around $5,000 to $6,000, low deductible your annual cost is around $16,000 to $18,000.
Vermont has a pretty good health insurance laws, via Green Mountain Care if you earn over $80,000 per year, for a family of 5 you would pay about $1,300 per month for insurance... but you have to live in Vermont...
http://www.bcbsvt.com/member/PlansAndProducts-Member/IndividualandFamilyPlans/Non-Group_CatamountBlue.html
I am a dual US/Canadian Citizen and I am giving real thought to establishing my permanent residence in Ontario, (would consider Quebec but my french has a very american accent and just don't feel like dealing with the crap that comes from that on a day to day basis).
In that line you should also look at the difference between the quality and cost of a university education (for your children) between the US and Canada.
Having large, extended families on both sides of the border (that love to get together for a "after Sunday dinner" card playing, social & political debate gathering), I never thought the day would come that I would consider moving to Canada because it was better governed and managed!!!
The catch is that you have to be working to get these rates. I'm not working for the "man". That's my problem.
If you want to make sure your kids have health insurance, NYS has a affordable program for your children, called Child Health Plus, for just this circumstance, here is the link.
http://www.health.state.ny.us/nysdoh/chplus/who_is_eligible.htm
Un-fucking believable. Adjusted to a per-capita rate, hat's practically double what I pay here in Massahusetts. And that's a major struggle.
It's as if how the rest of the civilized world provides healthcare is completely irrelevant. Nope, the free market is the only way.
(See a summery of TJ Reid's comparisons of healthcare across the developed world.
"All the other developed democracies provide high-quality health coverage for everybody, and they still spend half as much as we do". Yet we can't do the stuff that a cretin could fix, like negotiating for drug prices in Medicare.
I am on medicare and only take two generic prescriptions daily. Last year I was on Medicare part D and it cost me @ $60/month. This year I dropped it, and my two prescriptions would cost me @ $25 a month, but I told my pharmacy ( Walgreens) that I didn't have Part D coverage and they gave me a senior discount so my cost is $14/month. When I was dropping Part D a very sincere young woman warned me repeatedly that if I ever wanted to start it again I would have to 'pay a penalty'. I asked her how much that we would be and after some heavy calculating it would amount to $0.31/month for every month that I had been off, or roughly $3/year. !Now this might not work for some folks who have a lot of prescriptions, but the math sure works for me.
That's story #1. Story #2 is that my wife isn't old enough for medicare and can't get health insurance at any price because - get this - she had knee replacement surgery a few years back . We've discovered that we are able to negotiate discounts with doctors, labs etc of 30-50% by paying cash - so it obviously costs doctors that much to file insurance paperwork. The real show-stopper was when my wife had to have an endoscopy - we negotiated a $700 payment with the hospital - total charges. Then when they sent us the receipt the cost of the procedure etc was shown as $7,862, discounted to $700. So you know for a fact that if we had insurance, that insurer would have been billed $7,862. I have no doubt that the $700 completely covered the hospital's cost - they weren't going to lose money on us. Which means that having insurance would have inflated the 'cost' of her procedure by 1000%. So you tell me why health insurance premiums are so high? Hmmmmmm?
we negotiated a $700 payment with the hospital - total charges. Then when they sent us the receipt the cost of the procedure etc was shown as $7,862, discounted to $700. So you know for a fact that if we had insurance, that insurer would have been billed $7,862.
Nope, insurance companies negotiate rates which you never know about. The statement will say the insurance company was billed $7872 in documents provided to you from both the hospital and the insurance company, but in real life they pay something like $700, or $400, o rmaybe $3200, all dependent on their market strength. That's why Tufts Health Plan is being pushed out of business in Massachusetts, because Blue Cross Blue Shield pays pennies on the dollar compared to Tufts thanks to their volume arm-twisting power over providers.
The most sinister aspect of this is people who are underinsured (like my mother was). Your co-pay with insurance is vastly higher than your cash price would be if you had no insurance.
The system is corrupt, by design, under laws written by the industry, and the states collude on this conspiracy.
Walmart, whom everyone loves to criticize, sells me my blood pressure prescription for $10 for a three month supply. I just pay the $10 and avoid my drug plan, as the latter will only pay for a one month's supply at $10 a month cost to me for a total of $30 for three month supply.
I'd self-insure at that rate Bruce, that is bullshit. Like you, I pay my 8% to smash up my car in potholes driving through NYC and lower NY state. Heck, I'd take the kids and the $67k and start over in another country well before paying that premium.
RE: Fukushima and the jet stream. We gotta hope they keep those reactors 'cool calm and collected'.
Back in WW2 the Japanese, lacking long range bombers but being familiar with the jet stream, put school girls to work making papermache balloons that would carry small bombs to the US west coast. Some did. In fact a family in Oregon or Washington was on a picnic when one arrived. It killed them. Others set some forests on fire. It wasn't Curtis Lemay and his B-29's but it was a low cost alternative. The US kept quiet about it because we did not want them to know it worked.
Here is the backdoor to the real unreleased radiation forecast from the Norway Institute for Air Safety.
http://squid.nilu.no/~burkhart/sharing/MOVIES/?C=M;O=D
Why is this important to know?
@5:10 you will see the comparison between what was publicly released and the private vintage.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDcZMgDWRkU
Take precautions my friends.
A fire balloon, balloon bomb (Japanese: f?sen bakudan, literally "balloon bomb"), or Fu-Go was an experimental weapon launched by Japan during World War II. A hydrogen balloon with a load varying from a 12-kilogram (26 lb) incendiary to one 15 kg (33 lb) antipersonnel bomb and four 5 kg (11 lb) incendiary devices attached, they were designed as a cheap weapon intended to make use of the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean and wreak havoc on Canadian and American cities, forests, and farmland.
The balloons were relatively ineffective as weapons but were used in one of the few attacks on North America during World War II.
Between November 1944 and April 1945, Japan launched over 9,300 fire balloons. About 300 balloon bombs were found or observed in North America, killing six people and causing a small amount of damage.[1]
Would be great to be able to purchase a bare bones catastrophic policy (with out all of the government mandated coverages) in another state.....
From someone living in the CHF zone:
Thanks Bruce for your perspective on CHF!
Bruce's prediction at the beginning of the year was that EURCHF would trade below 90 by June.
The SNB is in a difficult position as huge reserves of EUR are required for EU trade and hugeUSD reserves are required since USD is currently the global reserve currency (and banking is a rather sizable industry here).
Because of the structuring of the global fiat balancing act, and the fear trade driving excess fiat in CHF- the SNB holdings will usually show a loss if they continue to actually support the domestic economy as opposed to attempting to run a for-profit sovereign F/X hedge fund.
A 7% YTD unrealized paper loss doesn't feel good, but on balance the SNB has F/X reserves of 28,000 per capita and gold reserves of almost 4 oz per capita, so I will continue to sleep well at night.
so they're "all in on the bailout of Greece by Germany"? Or is it "they're all in on the destruction of the european economic union by France?" Or is it "they're all in on the invasion of Libya by the CIA?" Or maybe it's "the great news from Fukushima?" Hmmm. "I don't see these problems changing anytime soon." Now onto the "US debt ceiling funnertainment!"
Were I paying $67,000 per year for health coverage I think I'd just go 'naked' and become a medical tourist if the need arose. My complaint is far more picayune. I had some surgery a couple months ago and get a letter from CIGNA about each bill they pay informing me of how much I 'saved' owing to my wonderful plan.
One such letter informed me I 'saved' a whopping 31 cents on the bill from the Pathologist. I've gotten 8 such letters from Cigna so far detailing my 'savings' or amounts not covered. Can't they consolidate this in one letter and save some money? Its not a lot I realize but it would 'save' money. OTOH because my copay for a hospital room has gone from $200/day to $500 I told my surgeon to leave me in gurney in the hallway if necessary after surgery but do NOT put me in a room. Last time I paid $200 for the privilege of waking in a hospital room after surgery, spending one hour in it before being discharged and being billed a $200 copay for my 'stay'.
My recent hospital visit was itemized. $17 for and aspirin. $24 for a sponge. $97 for a shot of morphine. $7700/day for the hospital room. etc. etc.
I could stay in the Grand Presidential Suite at the Ritz for that price and have a hotel physician at my beck and call.
12,000 to 15,000 for heart surgery in India including 7 days in private room..
http://www.safemedtrip.com/view-procedure/robotic_heart_surgery_in_india
Medical tourism for those who can afford it and have a current passport
But the hotel doesn't have to serve illegals for free.
You are not paying for asprins and sponges and staying in a hospital room, you are paying the cost of the medicaid/medicare underpays and the illegal alien free rides. Somebody has to pay, it is those of us with insurance.
"it is those of us with insurance."
Er, not quite. I don't have insurance and was sent by my Dr. for an MRI. Hospital charged me nearly triple the insured rate because I had to pay out of pocket. Explanation: We lose money on our insurance fee structure and underpays and have to make it up somewhere.
System is definitely broken. Next time, I'll just drink a Guinness Extra Stout.
take the 67K put it in the bank ( to pay doctors visits ) ,pay the $750.00 penalty for not having coverage .Pray you don't get cancer ! If you do get really sick next year all carriers must give you coverage ,even for existing conditions .
This is the part I can never figure.
If health insurance isn't worth $67K to you, don't pay it. Pay the penalty and deal with whatever nonsense the hospital puts you through when you show up in an emergency. "Oh, what? My liver has fallen out because I was hit by a drunk-driver and Oxford isn't willing to step in and argue about what they're willing to cover here in the hospital? OK, guess you guys just shovel me onto the street and let me DIE, then. Life's short, eh?"
For DAMN sure the whole industry is one big corrupt gummit-subsidized payola scam. You aren't going to win any points by participating voluntarily in the system you KNOW FULL WELL is one big corrupt gummit-subsidized payola scam.
Shit, the fact that anyone could possibly even be billed that kind of total blows my mind.
Show the principles and just don't pay. It's the easiest approach to revolution in the world.
The problem is: if you *have* the $67K and you have kids, or a dependent spouse, or whatever, you KNOW they've got you.
But that's the essence of capitalism, and capitalism is the only reason we live on this planet. Just invest in health-insurance companies and it's a win-win.
Exploit what the market will bear, and deliver as little as you can get away with.
Hope and change baby. Yes we can bankrupt everyone- Obama and Biden for 2012. We still have a long way to go to make USA 3rd World. Hang on to your seats, this is not over. Whilst the guys in Congress bitch and say for the people, yeah right. Electrions do matter, yeah right, sure it does. Gives all politicinas a chance to loot in the name of liberty and justice for them and not for the slaves.
Citizens Under Attack
Everything Obama, Geithner, & Bernanke do, they do it all for The Banksters.
Many people have lost their homes. Many more are paying inflated rates on inflated properties which the banks refuse to refinance. Savers are getting lousy rates on CDs, but are charged 10%-24% on a credit card. From the top of the credit menuboard to the bottom, The Banksters have FREE REIN to suck as much blood out of the middle class as they possibly can. It’s a criminal plan that TARP was paid for by The Taxpayers to save the banks from extinction, only for them to revive and viciously attack the hands that feed them. Henry Paulson should be charged with TREASON for using The Taxpayers' Money to re-arm The Banks of Mass Destruction. Everybody is a victim, even the homeowner without a mortgage, his equity is dropping in its entirety; he's losing more than the guy with a mortgage. Condos sit empty because banks don’t want to pay associations’ maintenance fees, while those fees rise for the rest of unit-owners to make up the shortfall. The Banking Cartel is waging a war against every American Citizen, and it won’t be happy until every savings account is drained, every homeowner is broke & evicted, every credit card holder is “paying” 24.9% + $88/ mo. in overlimit and late fees, and every house is in their possession. Even the foreclosure process is financially draining for the owner, with insurance and electric payments continuing until property is taken out of owners’ name, an average of 2-3 years. (Upon repossession, the bank doesn’t book the loss until resale, artificially covering-up insolvency issues). Wake up people, its not us against each other, its Us vs. The Banksters who run their operation with impunity.
Further details of the covert TARP program, “Where the Bailout Went Wrong”, by Neil Barofsky:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/30/opinion/30barofsky.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=barofsky&st=cse
See also: Public Pensions Betrayed by Fraud and Abuse?
Posted by: Leo Kolivakis
Legislators, Insurance Companies, Bankstas, why do they all think WE will/can pay their outrageous fees? Think about this: Very little of the "fee" goes to the root subject- Bonuses and Salaries have to be paid first. Even Doctors who are paid nicely, are not the problem here (we need the doctors). The layers of Squid-D-Licious money sucking have to be wrung out, people need to just stop paying! Starve the BEAST. I know, health care is a tough one especially when you have an existing problem. But preying on the weak is actually a worse offense. BRUCE- I think we need to look at how our government's unspoken mandate is to BANKRUPT THE PEOPLE. As I am Joe above says: Hope and change baby. Yes we can bankrupt everyone- Obama and Biden for 2012.Credit where credit is due. This is an excellent post. Well done Mr. Krasting.
Is it any wonder in old tribal cultures the Witch Doctor controlled the masses with hokus pokus, witches brewes , deception dancing and threats from the devil. Not much has changed , but this time politicians also play the game.
the tribe chief often consulted the witch doctor ... so its really pretty much the same except the witch doctor didn't economically destroy the tribe member when they got sick ... they just didn't know how to cure them most of the time.
$67,000 / year for a family of four? How do families pay for that? I know that Obama care is not popular on ZH but you guys should look at other options. In Canada we have universal health care that I think works better for the average person and is less costly.
Obamacare! Nice one. Since when has .gov ever been able to manage anything correctly. Hint: look up unfunded liabilities and realize that unfunded really means un-funded, spent elsewhere(given to israel).
Cuba has one of the best health care industries in the world. Ask yourself why.
Cuba may have one of the best health care industries in the world, but it sure as hell doesn't have some of the best health care in the world - at least, not for its own people, unless they're party apparatchiks.
Just google "myth cuban health care" and you'll find plenty of articles like this:
http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/cuba/health-myth.htm
The place is a dump. Why would you expect their healthcare to be better than any other centrally-planned farrago?
Dejean, I would be interested in hearing your opinions on why Cuba has such a good health care system.
Don't think that is for a catastrophic, say 8-10,000 deductible policy--which is the only kind that makes sense.
Maybe if we dumped 11 million illegal aliens in your emergency rooms and hospitals your prices might go up too. You do give free heath care to everyone who manages to cross the border, right? I thought so. I think I will start offering maps and bus tickets to Canada to the illegal aliens around my town, and even toss in a ASE as a treat. I wonder how many Canada can absorb before collapse?
We have already absorbed plenty, legal and illegal. On a per capita basis Canada accepts 10 times the immigration the US does and that is only the legal ones. Some years back, the province of Ontario had 8 million citizens entitled to health cards and there were 24 million cards in circulation.
And Ontario is running a per-capita 2011 budget deficit larger than California's.
Source: John Embry of Sprott Assett Mgmt.
unfortunately, the U.S. government turns a blind eye to this problem. I live in a border State and they whine and complain in the emergency room that we need to speak Spanish. This anchor baby system is ridiculous.
The Feds gave the AMA a monopoly on medical care. The Feds gave pharma a monopoly on medicine via the FDA. The Feds allow attorneys to sue everyone for anything.
Without government intervention the cost of medical care would be affordable.
Is alaskan fish good for you ? It seems the FDA will not be testing N. Pacific fish for radioactivity. Report on yahoo.
Add that health insurance is not insurance. I don't have car insurance that pays for my oil changes (minus a small copay) but we expect that with medical insurance. We should have insurance to pay for the transplants, and cancer while we pay as we go for the colds and pink eye visits. Problem is that regulations sometimes don't let us get those policies. Your comment is dead-on for explaining rising costs if you add the lack of self-rationing that comes with a full coverage plan. I've talked with many who feel proud of going to the doctor for a useless visit because they somehow made money by using their health insurance.
Health insurance doesn't insure your health, it insures your financial assets. A gym membership, used several times a week, will do a better job of keeping you healthy than any amount of medical insurance. If someone can peel $100k-plus right off the top of their annual gross earnings to buy health insurance, I say congratulations to them, they are obviously part of a very select group of earners. But what they are really protecting is their considerable assets, which would be decimated by a complicated illness involving a lengthy stay in the hospital.
Why shoot the messenger? In America, health care is a hopeless hodge podge of stupid regulation, subsidies, and third party payers. No one has any incentive to determine actual costs, much less reduce them. It has had no relation to the free market since Lyndon Johnson made all the doctors' bad debts good.
Time to open up the system to competition from alternative med. Safer, saner, and dramatically cheaper. I would go to an MD only for emergency trauma. I consider them a bunch of arrogant corporate pill pushers.
I am with you on this one. People think they need medicine. They are brainwashed to think they are going to die without it (I know that some really do need it). Most just need to take reasonably good care of themselves and have a positive outlook. My great grandfather lived to 102. I believe he had no real access to medicine. My grandparents lived to an average of 86; only my grandmother used modern medicine to any extent (a pacemaker). There is no real reason to believe that health insurance will make any real difference for a person that takes care of him or herself.