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Internal BP Document Confirms Matt Simmons' Worst Case Prediction Of Spill Rate Of 100,000+ Barrels Per Day

Tyler Durden's picture




 

An internal BP document released by the chairman of the Energy and Environment Subcommittee in the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Ed Markey, discloses what the vast majority already know - that a "worst case" gusher scenario could be as high as 100,000 barrels of oil per day. According to an exhibit discussing flow rate probabilities, BP says that "If BOP and wellhead are removed and if we have incorrectly modeled the
restrictions – the rate could be as high as ~ 100,000 barrels per day
up the casing or 55,000 barrels per day up the annulus (low probability
worst cases)
." This is getting very close to the estimate presented previously by Matt Simmons that the flow rate could be as high as 120,000 bpd. As Markey notes, "This number is in sharp contrast to BP’s initial claim that the leak
was just 1,000 barrels a day. At the time this document was made
available to Congress, BP claimed the leak was 5,000 barrels a day, and
told Members of the House Energy and Commerce Committee that the worst
case scenario was be 60,000 barrels a day.
This document tells a
different story." It is stunning to discover that a major multi-national corporation could be so daring as to lie to shareholders, Congress and taxpayers. The next question that Congress may want to look into is why the Obama administration swallowed BP's lies hook line and collapsing GoM floor bed, without using an independent 3rd party verification, and what the liability to the firm would be if the official flow rate is revised to be twice higher than the current worse case scenario. We are confident that as more of the structural integrity of the seabed collapses, that even Simmons' estimate will prove to be conservative.

More from Ed Markey:

“Considering what is now known about BP’s problems with this well prior to the Deepwater Horizon explosion, including cementing issues, leaks in the blowout preventer and gas kicks, BP should have been more honest about the dangerous condition of the well bore,” said Markey, the chairman of the Energy and Environment Subcommittee in the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

On Thursday, Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen was asked in his daily briefing about the condition of the well bore.  He said there, “So what I would tell you is we don’t know exactly the condition of the well bore. And that’s one of the unknowns that we’re managing around in terms of risks.  And that’s the reason we didn’t go, didn’t go to excessive pressures on the top kill and decided that we’d deal with containment and then go for the final relief well.”

According to Admiral Allen: "I think that one thing that nobody knows is the condition of the well bore from below the blowout preventer down to the actual oil field itself.  And we don’t know, we don’t know if the well bore has been compromised or not."

What the BP document suggests that if the well bore is compromised or becomes compromised, we now know we could be looking at a flow rate 100 times BP's initial estimate.  Even if we can't know for certain the condition of the well bore, we should have known how much oil could flow from it--BP did.

“When the oil spill started, BP said it was only 1,000 barrels a day. Now we know it could end up being 100 times larger than that in a worst-case scenario,” said Markey. “This document raises very troubling questions about what BP knew and when they knew it. It is clear that, from the beginning, BP has not been straightforward with the government or the American people about the true size of this spill. Now the families living and working in the Gulf are suffering from their incompetence.”

“BP needs to tell us what it will do if the well bore is compromised and 100,000 barrels per day of oil spills into the ocean.
At this point, we need real contingency planning, not a plan with dead scientists and walruses,” said Markey.

 

Smoking gun BP exhibits:

 

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Sun, 06/20/2010 - 13:50 | 423774 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

They don't care, within 2-3 more weeks they will be hiring bankruptcy lawyers to scam out of every claim they would ever have to pay. And any judge should disallow any attempt by them to file bankruptcy until every asset they have is sold off and every claim paid.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:02 | 423798 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

jkruffin

Make of this what you will.

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/06/june-19-2010-behind-curtain-of-spin.html

Ilargi: There are more examples than one can even try to sum up when it comes to painting the picture of the perversity and ineptitude of the US political system. The so-called grilling of Tony Hayward a few days ago was one prime example. The BP CEO started out with a "so sorry" statement that was an almost exact copy of a recent BP mea culpa TV ad. 

When responding to the subsequent questions, Hayward mainly repeated the same line over and over: he wasn’t there when it happened, he had no influence on the decision-making process concerning the Macondo well, it was not his personal fault, and moreover, he was the very man who had announced strict safety measures when he took the job. Absolute habberdash, obviously, all of it, but it didn't matter one iota to Tony Hayward. 

The reason why, or at least a major one, became clear the day after the "grilling": Tony Hayward was "relieved of his duties" that same day, to be replaced by some American deputy director at the company. Not replaced as CEO, mind you, but as BP's "face" in the US. 

Capitol Hill, therefore, looks like the bunch of ass-clowns they are. Any further or follow-up questions will not be answered by the company's CEO anymore. They can now complain, whine and yell at his servant. Obviously, this was a decision that had been made a while ago; let Tony take the flack, he's leaving anyway.

In the past two weeks, despite Obama's moratorium on offshore drilling, the White House (through The Department of Interior's Minerals (Mis)Management Service has signed off on at least five new offshore drilling projects. That all by itself provides a much clearer idea of where the power lies, and where the truth, than all the made-for-media show trials together. 

BP has signed off on a $20 billion escrow fund, but it may well be liable for damages totaling over $100 billion. Judging from Tony Hayward's performance, the fourth-largest company on the planet doesn't seem too worried, or at least its directors don’t. It may be wise not to underestimate BP's political clout, in London, Washington and many other capitals around the world.

Possibly even more perverted, and more telling of how Washington works, is this from the Huffington Post:

White House Flip Flops On Reining In CEO Pay 
The White House is intervening at the last minute to come to the defense of multinational corporations in the unfolding conference committee negotiations over Wall Street reform. A measure that had been generally agreed to by both the House and Senate, which would have affirmed the SEC's authority to allow investors to have proxy access to the corporate decision-making process, was stripped by the Senate in conference committee votes on Wednesday and Thursday. 

Five sources with knowledge of the situation said the White House pushed for the measure to be stripped at the behest of the Business Roundtable. The sources -- congressional aides as well as outside advocates -- requested anonymity for fear of White House reprisal.

The White House move pits the administration against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who told Barney Frank (D-Mass.) to stand strong against the effort. "I met with the Speaker today and she said, 'Don't back down. I'll back you up,'" Frank, the lead House conferee, told HuffPost. "Maxine Waters is very upset, as are CalPERS and others." Advocates said that the corporations fought the issue primarily over executive compensation concerns. Given proxy access, investors could rein in executive salaries. The Business Roundtable is a lobby of corporate CEOs.

Yes, BP would be a natural member of the Business Roundtable. The fishermen and tourist operators on the Gulf Coast would not. If I've said it once, I must have said it a thousand times: there will be no economic recovery in the US, and neither will there be any meaningful reform, whether financial or political, as long as the final say rests with those who have the most money. 

They've gotten where they are through, and because of, the system as it is, and they will successfully resist any significant changes that would hurt their interests. That's the light in which to view for instance Obama's bizarrely numb Oval Office speech, and that’s why the White House deems it necessary to intervene on Capitol Hill on behalf of its friends and masters in the Business Roundtable.

It’s not a pretty picture that you get to see when you peer behind the curtain of spin, is it? 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:09 | 423804 doublethink
doublethink's picture

 

Shhh....

 

The Defense Intelligence Agency filed notice this week that it plans to create a new section called Foreign Intelligence and Counterintelligence Operation Records, whose purpose will be to "document intelligence, counterintelligence, counterterrorism and counternarcotic operations relating to the protection of national security."

But while the unit's name refers to "foreign intelligence," civil liberties advocates and the Pentagon's own description of the program suggest that Americans will likely be included in the new database.

 

http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0619/pentagon-revives-domestic-spying-unit/

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 21:37 | 424238 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

telling that "counternarcotic operations".  can't have people getting high on any but approved drugs.  it's a war, man.   no sacrifice too great, no price too high.  goodness it's so much better now that george w. bush is back in texas.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:36 | 423841 trav7777
trav7777's picture

WOW...just WOW.

The OWNERS of corporations are having to fight in Congress to take back control of their property from the executives of those corporations.  The Boards are so packed with cronies that they have managed to steal everything not tied down and destroy the businesses like a swarm of locusts.

How many boards you think Hayward sits on?  How many for Blankfein or Dimon?  And of those boards, how many of those companies have executives who serve on JPM or GS or BP boards?  It's one GIGANTIC interlocking directorate, one big gang.

Now, the freaking OWNERS of companies are having to fight to retake control of the fucking profits that BELONG TO OWNERS, as the executives make one "business decision" after another to pay it to themselves.

I used to own part of a restaurant.  If the manager came and told me that he was paying himself all of the profits, I'd have laughed and then fired him.  That's what NEEDS TO HAPPEN here.

ALL of our representatives at ALL LEVELS need to go.  One big YOU'RE FIRED from everybody.

we as OWNERS of this nation and OWNERS of these corporations need to retake what is OURS.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:42 | 423855 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

@ jk

they don't care, within 2-3 more weeks they will be hiring bankruptcy lawyers

you are correct that they. don't. care.

no need for bankruptcy. isn't it obvious that they cut a deal last week? go to wall street, borrow, pay claims over time... if necessary the central bankers will buy the paper don't you think? bp is too well connected to fail. not. going. to. happen.

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 16:15 | 423944 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Bankruptcy?

Have they and their partners in crime spent the $2.5 Trillion already?

Check this out... you'll shit!

http://forum.concen.org/showthread.php?tid=31284

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 16:37 | 423965 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

while nothing, nothing surprises me any more when it comes to the shenanigans from the financial class that controls the world as we know it, THIS is a pretty jaw-dropping piece to add to the files!

thanks ZerOhead, and /sigh.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 16:39 | 423968 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Hey Aura...

And if you want this nightmare to end why not help me plan it out at "How to Peacefully Overthrow an Oligarchic Kleptocracy" (for Dummies) in the General Forum threads... please tell this nuuty critter why it can not be done and win some kind of prize!

'... there's just too much bitching and moaning going on these days.

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 22:31 | 424327 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

It's the same theme over and over. This is how the gold market is manipulated. This is how enron worked. This is how the stock market melts up on no volume. It's just repeating the same scam over and over in every domain.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 16:58 | 423995 DosZap
DosZap's picture

trav,

It will happen,people really underestimate the populace.

All one needs do, is look at all the restricions, and freedoms they are trying to pass, and usurping.............to know they fear the SMALL MAN.

King Geoge thought England was invincible also, alas, he crept away with a bloody ass, and a pocket full of IOU's.

No one,is above the LAW, and anyone, can be taken at any time,anywhere.(our history bears this out).

People do not realize it's civilians who do a lot of training of our military in marksmanship, and new idea's/weapons...........plus, the military are you and I, Americans first.

The common citizen, is better overall in skillsets, as far as ratios go, than military.............

They took an Oath as some here have, and they take it damned seriously.

A few would follow illegal orders, but the vast majority would either follow their oaths, and help, or STAND down.

They know the country belongs to the people...........and the people are the Government........when push comes to shove.

I do not fear our folks in uniform..............they are US.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 22:37 | 424341 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

trav - Yes, it is outrageous. The company executives and boards of directors stealing from the company and shareholders in broad daylight.

In some ways the theft is similar to when the Mob moves into legitimate businesses and bleeds the company dry in a bust out operation.

As for the interlocking, crony-back-scratching board of directors, it is another reason to demand RICO prosecutions of these overlapping criminal enterprises.

The only thing that has any hope of stopping the continual rape and pillage of investors, pensioners, city and state funds, and taxpayers is to see the entire Wall Street RICO crime syndicate along with co-conspirators in the mortgage industry, the Fed, Treasury, SEC, and Congress arrested and perp walked in handcuffs to federal and state jails. Now. Not 2 years from now. 

 We need mass trials in style of the Maxiprocesso (Maxi Trial) of the Mafia in Sicily during the mid-1980s that resulted in hundreds of defendants convicted. We need 20 years-to-life hard time prison sentences for the hundreds convicted. We need RICO confiscations of the hundreds of billions in illegal "profits" from the criminal enterprises of the banks, mortgage industry, and Wall Street Mafia. 

The prosecutor who leads the charge will become a national hero. 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:46 | 423859 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

BP is really f@#$ing things up for a lot of people.  The reason British Petroleum was dismissive of the amount of oil that was billowing from the sea bed is that they are fined by the amount of oil that is injected like an enema up everyone's backside. If anyone would like one of my (timely) little indignant fish, you can get one here: http://www.cafepress.com/+cursing_fish_dark_tshirt,238415126

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 16:45 | 423975 BobWatNorCal
BobWatNorCal's picture

"In the past two weeks, despite Obama's moratorium on offshore drilling, the White House (through The Department of Interior's Minerals (Mis)Management Service has signed off on at least five new offshore drilling projects."

Sure, but luckily for us, the fact that Obama ran a brilliant campaign means that he can run the White House. Cause his peops are real brainy.
The lack of accomplishments, job history, even legislative experience (he mostly voted "present" in the Illinois legislature and ran for Pres while in the US Senate) don't matter.

So there.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 17:36 | 424037 Windemup
Windemup's picture

So Sorry, From Tiger Woods to Tony Hayward.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:25 | 423826 doublethink
doublethink's picture

 

No Bankruptcy

 

BP’s US operations do not face bankruptcy, despite the massive spike in CDS in the wake of the Gulf oil spill disaster and some talk that such an option might make sense. Bankers reckon the only reason BP would consider bankruptcy is if it were to lose access to liquidity – and such worries were decisively dealt with last week when it became clear that banks were prepared to lend the company billions of dollars.

 

http://www.ifre.com/bankruptcy-not-on-the-cards-for-bp-as-banks-rally-ro...

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 17:12 | 424008 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

Yes we will pay.

Can I borrow a couple 20-50 billion

So sorry we are now broke and we owe so much money with no possibility of paying it back.

Bankrupbpcy

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 13:51 | 423777 Mongo
Mongo's picture

BP = ButtPlug

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:38 | 423845 doublethink
Sun, 06/20/2010 - 13:52 | 423778 dcb
dcb's picture

It looks like they hav been taking their playbook of morals from goldman sachs.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 16:12 | 423940 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Why not?

They are already partners in a... wait for it... $2.5 trillion dollar oil scam with none other than Goldman Sachs. Somebody should run an article on ICE... 2.5T sounds like a lot of money to me...

And you thought oil prices were high because of peak oil... :)

http://forum.concen.org/showthread.php?tid=31284

According to Davis, the scam starts in 2000 with the formation of the ICE - the Intercontinental Exchange. The ICE - founded by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BP, Total, Shell, Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale - is an online commodities and futures marketplace that exists outside the US and operates free from the constraints of US laws.

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 20:13 | 424168 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

"Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BP, Total, Shell, Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale"

Cool the who's who in bankruptcy 2010, 2011.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 21:37 | 424236 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

and ICE recently purchased the chicago climate exchange, so the usual suspects that have been named are pushing hard for cap and trade so they can make a few trillion on the carbon credits that they will gladly trade for you.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 22:37 | 424342 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya. They aren't running haarp constantly any more. So they are trying to make it even more sporadic on weather in order to get things going back with the carbon credit exchange.

Unfortunately the roots of our legal system is unraveling at a shocking pace.

http://noworldsystem.com/2010/05/24/most-people-are-in-jail-voluntarily/...

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 13:57 | 423788 Apostate
Apostate's picture

Truth outs!

Anyone can pull a hustle on journalists (who, as a class, are the dumbest fucks in the world), but to do so on an old hand like Simmons is quite a trick.

For reference, Cantarell currently produces 536,617 bpd.

This leak is almost 20% of a Cantarell. 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:47 | 423860 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Just to pound the meme, at peak a few years ago, Cantarell produced over 2mbpd.  There's yer Peak Oil right there, and why BP is even going to the trouble at 23000'

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 13:57 | 423789 doublethink
doublethink's picture

 

Uh Oh

 

Even if Invest 92-L does not develop, surface pressures in the Caribbean will fall this week and the western Caribbean may be an area to really watch later this week. The European model has been very consistent in forecasting the development of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean as early as Thursday or Friday.

 

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6606#more

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 13:58 | 423791 I need more asshats
I need more asshats's picture

Thank you for this info ZH.

The amount of toxic disbursement has been understated also. Gulf residents should not consume tap water for the foreseeable future. You cannot boil the toxicity out of the tap water either so use care when preparing meals.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:02 | 423797 AssFire
AssFire's picture

This is complete BS, fear mongering at its worst. It requires a number of things to happen that just are not probable.. Sea canyons have not collapsed on any well heads causing destruction ANYWHERE. Publishing this here discounts the reliability of other stories.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:04 | 423800 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

 AssFire

I knew BP was paying for security, so you are what the Cyber wing? Or are you a BIGOV boy? Sometimes the propaganda is hard to source.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:24 | 423825 Screwloose
Screwloose's picture

Agreed; the crucial words are "If the BOP and wellhead are completely removed."  They haven't been.

The BOP is actually doing almost all it's job.  The oil is issuing through a gap only half an inch wide - although it is constantly eroding - so this is far from an "open flow" well as there is a 2,000lbf/sq/in [near 50%] pressure drop across the BOP.  [Source; theoildrum.com]

BP's initial estimate may not have been far from the truth - then.  The MSM are falling over themselves trying to find the biggest guess out there - but there are few hard facts yet known and the invented ones are not really helping quell the paranoia.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:52 | 423874 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Bullshit . - There has never been a well built so structurely unsound . The well is damaged beneath the surface and as the well head gets sandblasted away day after day we come to the point of no return where the entire resevoir will come into the Gulf. The fact is the MSM has been forced to report due to sites like this which release the truth . People are now going elsewhere when the the situation being reported does not reflect the reality of it .

"so this is far from an "open flow" well as there is a 2,000lbf/sq/in [near 50%] pressure drop across the BOP.  [Source; theoildrum.com]"

 

The OILDRUM>COM had this to say "the overall flow was estimated to be perhaps 12,000 bd. Once the broken part of the riser was removed and a cap placed over the well, a significant portion of the escaping oil was captured and could then be measured as it flowed into the surface vessel recovering it. Those values are currently at around 15,500 bd. BP is currently planning on additional capture this week of up to another 10,000 bd, and preparing for a worst case scenario with a flow rate of 80,000 bd. These numbers vary a lot, and yet they could all be correct."

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:56 | 423936 Screwloose
Screwloose's picture

 

Precisely.  All, or any, quoted numbers could be correct at any point in time - there is currently no way to know which, so what good is all the wild and unsubstantiated speculation doing?

Why should all the reservoir come into the Gulf?  Even if the relief wells fail; there's nothing to stop them parking four production platforms on top of it and sucking the whole thing dry through 100 wells.  It would take time, but it's only speeding up what was going to happen anyway.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 18:06 | 424056 bingaling
bingaling's picture

what good is the speculation doing ? Bp originally claimed 1000 BPD !!!! what good did that do? let me rephrase that What kind of harm did that cause ? Isn't it best to assume the worst in a scenario like this when you are dealing with a highly populated area ? As for them parking 4 prod platforms there ,they couldn't get it right the first 2 times what makes you think any other attempt will be a success ?

As to why the resevoir will soon all be in the gulf if the relief wells arent drilled in time a friend emailed me this a week ago- tilt seems to be now occuring :

Contrary to what most of us would think as logical to stop the oil mess, actually opening up the gushing well and making it gush more became direction BP took after confirming that there was a leak. In fact if you note their actions, that should become clear. They have shifted from stopping or restricting the gusher to opening it up and catching it. This only makes sense if they want to relieve pressure at the leak hidden down below the seabed.....and that sort of leak is one of the most dangerous and potentially damaging kind of leak there could be. It is also inaccessible which compounds our problems. There is no way to stop that leak from above, all they can do is relieve the pressure on it and the only way to do that right now is to open up the nozzle above and gush more oil into the gulf and hopefully catch it, which they have done, they just neglected to tell us why, gee thanks.

A down hole leak is dangerous and damaging for several reasons.
There will be erosion throughout the entire beat up, beat on and beat down remainder of the "system" including that inaccessible leak. The same erosion I spoke about in the first post is still present and has never stopped, cannot be stopped, is impossible to stop and will always be present in and acting on anything that is left which has crude oil "Product" rushing through it. There are abrasives still present, swirling flow will create hot spots of wear and this erosion is relentless and will always be present until eventually it wears away enough material to break it's way out. It will slowly eat the bop away especially at the now pinched off riser head and it will flow more and more. Perhaps BP can outrun or keep up with that out flow with various suckage methods for a period of time, but eventually the well will win that race, just how long that race will be?...no one really knows....However now?...there are other problems that a down hole leak will and must produce that will compound this already bad situation.

This down hole leak will undermine the foundation of the seabed in and around the well area. It also weakens the only thing holding up the massive Blow Out Preventer's immense bulk of 450 tons. In fact?...we are beginning to the results of the well's total integrity beginning to fail due to the undermining being caused by the leaking well bore.

The first layer of the sea floor in the gulf is mostly lose material of sand and silt. It doesn't hold up anything and isn't meant to, what holds the entire subsea system of the Bop in place is the well itself. The very large steel connectors of the initial well head "spud" stabbed in to the sea floor. The Bop literally sits on top of the pipe and never touches the sea bed, it wouldn't do anything in way of support if it did. After several tens of feet the seabed does begin to support the well connection laterally (side to side) you couldn't put a 450 ton piece of machinery on top of a 100' tall pipe "in the air" and subject it to the side loads caused by the ocean currents and expect it not to bend over...unless that pipe was very much larger than the machine itself, which you all can see it is not. The well's piping in comparison is actually very much smaller than the Blow Out Preventer and strong as it may be, it relies on some support from the seabed to function and not literally fall over...and it is now showing signs of doing just that....falling over.

If you have been watching the live feed cams you may have noticed that some of the ROVs are using an inclinometer...and inclinometer is an instrument that measures "Incline" or tilt. The BOP is not supposed to be tilting...and after the riser clip off operation it has begun to...

This is not the only problem that occurs due to erosion of the outer area of the well casings. The way a well casing assembly functions it that it is an assembly of different sized "tubes" that decrease in size as they go down. These tubes have a connection to each other that is not unlike a click or snap together locking action. After a certain length is assembled they are cemented around the ouside to the earth that the more rough drill hole is bored through in the well making process. A very well put together and simply explained process of "How to drill a deep water oil well" is available here:
www.treesfullofmoney.com...

The well bore casings rely on the support that is created by the cementing phase of well construction. Just like if you have many hands holding a pipe up you could put some weight on the top and the many hands could hold the pipe and the weight on top easily...but if there were no hands gripping and holding the pipe?...all the weight must be held up by the pipe alone. The series of connections between the sections of casings are not designed to hold up the immense weight of the BOP without all the "hands" that the cementing provides and they will eventually buckle and fail when stressed beyond their design limits.

These are clear and present dangers to the battered subsea safety structure (bop and lmrp) which is the only loose cork on this well we have left. The immediate (first 1,000 feet) of well structure that remains is now also undoubtedly compromised. However.....as bad as that is?...it is far from the only possible problems with this very problematic well. There were ongoing troubles with the entire process during the drilling of this well. There were also many comprises made by BP IMO which may have resulted in an overall weakened structure of the entire well system all the way to the bottom plug which is over 12,000 feet deep. Problems with the cementing procedure which was done by Haliburton and was deemed as “was against our best practices.” by a Haliburton employee on April 1st weeks before the well blew out. There is much more and I won't go into detail right now concerning the lower end of the well and the troubles encountered during the whole creation of this well and earlier "Well control" situations that were revieled in various internal BP e-mails. I will add several links to those documents and quotes from them below and for now, address the issues concerning the upper portion of the well and the region of the sea floor.

What is likely to happen now?

Well...none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact...it's about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.

Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? ...it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.

All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the worst things you can think of" The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out...as I said...all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more. There isn't any "cap dome" or any other suck fixer device on earth that exists or could be built that will stop it from gushing out and doing more and more damage to the gulf. While at the same time also doing more damage to the well, making the chance of halting it with a kill from the bottom up less and less likely to work, which as it stands now?....is the only real chance we have left to stop it all.

It's a race now...a race to drill the relief wells and take our last chance at killing this monster before the whole weakened, wore out, blown out, leaking and failing system gives up it's last gasp in a horrific crescendo.

We are not even 2 months into it, barely half way by even optimistic estimates. The damage done by the leaked oil now is virtually immeasurable already and it will not get better, it can only get worse. No matter how much they can collect, there will still be thousands and thousands of gallons leaking out every minute, every hour of every day. We have 2 months left before the relief wells are even near in position and set up to take a kill shot and that is being optimistic as I said.

Over the next 2 months the mechanical situation also cannot improve, it can only get worse, getting better is an impossibility. While they may make some gains on collecting the leaked oil, the structural situation cannot heal itself. It will continue to erode and flow out more oil and eventually the inevitable collapse which cannot be stopped will happen. It is only a simple matter of who can "get there first"...us or the well.

We can only hope the race against that eventuality is one we can win, but my assessment I am sad to say is that we will not.

The system will collapse or fail substantially before we reach the finish line ahead of the well and the worst is yet to come.

Sorry to bring you that news, I know it is grim, but that is the way I see it....I sincerely hope I am wrong.

We need to prepare for the possibility of this blow out sending more oil into the gulf per week then what we already have now, because that is what a collapse of the system will cause. All the collection efforts that have captured oil will be erased in short order. The magnitude of this disaster will increase exponentially by the time we can do anything to halt it and our odds of actually even being able to halt it will go down.

The magnitude and impact of this disaster will eclipse anything we have known in our life times if the worst or even near worst happens...

We are seeing the puny forces of man vs the awesome forces of nature.
We are going to need some luck and a lot of effort to win...
and if nature decides we ought to lose, we will....

 


 

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 18:12 | 424067 AssFire
AssFire's picture

Taperer casings from 24 at top  to 9-5/8" at bottom 10000 ft beneath the seabed. I have ststed it once, but I will again. The leak at 1000 ft beneath the seafloor is only pressurized by the pressure required to push the remaining 1000 ft. Now the velocity is much lower at that section because the area goes up by the square- bernoulli effects are minimal.

I wish you copy & pasting financial gurus would listen to someone like me with 40 years of experience in this business. You will feel stupid enough when the relief wells are completed and it is plugged according to plan.. Jeez, I keep my mouth shut in areas I know nothing time for some of you to do the same.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 18:48 | 424106 Kali
Kali's picture

And I, also from that profession, for decades, pronounce you a corporate tool.  They cannot stop it.  You are an AssFire.  Total bullshit blowing out your hole.  It is fractured.  The leakage is not just coming from the well.  I know this from contacts I still have at my former employer, who are still working at BP.  They don't know what to do and the relief wells won't work.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 19:52 | 424148 AssFire
AssFire's picture

One relief well and the original well casing will do the venting, the 2nd relief well will do the plugging beneath the 1000 ft rupture point will be done by the 2nd relief well. As mentioned this is all being fed by 9-5/8" diameter and created 2300 psi venting through the existing bore- this pressure will be at least halved and the weight of the heavy mud will do its job. BP employes many people' I'm guessing you friend at BP is maybe a low level employee cause it is quite simple. It has been done this way for over 100 years. I like your posts, but you are not qualified to speak on every topic- on this you are as off base as Leo.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 21:50 | 424256 Augustus
Augustus's picture

My guess is that your former employer is part of the BP food supply chain, not the petroleum engineering or drilling sections.  There is no evidence of fracture or evidence of oil being produced from some other location than the top of the well.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 18:49 | 424107 bingaling
bingaling's picture

okay assfire I will keep my mouth shut from here on in - lets say we make a bet If I am right you take off that top in your avatar ,If I am wrong I will take the bag off my head .

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 22:16 | 424297 Cursive
Cursive's picture

okay assfire I will keep my mouth shut from here on in - lets say we make a bet If I am right you take off that top in your avatar ,If I am wrong I will take the bag off my head .

I am down with this plan!  This is compromise I can believe in!

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 19:47 | 424145 Screwloose
Screwloose's picture

This repeated reference to BP[?] initially claiming it was only 1000bpd - has anyone an authoritative, dated, source?

The "e-mail from a friend" is interesting and plausible; but it's essentially yet another speculative construction that does not add to the hard facts in the public domain.

Further stressing those actually and potentially affected, by promulgating wild and doom-laden predictions that may - or may not - happen is cruel in the extreme.

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 21:36 | 424237 Augustus
Augustus's picture

The original flow estimates were given by the Coast Guard.  Several interviews ago Allen mentioned that the original estimates were not from BP.  But now everyone knows that the CG would be much better at managing the situation and the plugging while blameing BP for the incorrect estimates.  It is simply bullshit from people who are not able to read.

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 00:12 | 424486 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

bingaling - For Your Information. That long material you posted from your friend's email are direct quotes of comments posted by Oil Drum reader dougr June 13, 2010 3:17am.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593#comment-648967

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 21:29 | 424227 Augustus
Augustus's picture

It is your lack of compreshension that is generating the Bullshit.

The broken part of the riser was replaced several weeks after the explosion and blowout.  The rate had increased BEFORE the riser was removed.  It increased further after the riser was removed.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 21:47 | 424253 Augustus
Augustus's picture

The BOP is attached to the 20" casing, not to the drive pipe that is set in the mud.  There is 16" inside the 20".  both are cemented to the formations for several thousand feet.  The idea that this well will have the casing jacked out of the hole, as proposed by Simmons, is just nonsense.  That is why he is no longer attached in any way to Simmons & Co.

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 00:00 | 424471 Dont Taze Me Bro
Dont Taze Me Bro's picture

AssFire is right. The fear mongering on this threat is annoying.

And what's up with all pseudo oil experts at ZH now? One oil rig accident and ya'll switch from being financial geniuses to oil experts? Gimme a freaking break.

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:21 | 423803 benb
benb's picture

“It is stunning to discover that a major multi-national corporation could be so daring as to lie to shareholders, Congress and taxpayers. The next question that Congress may want to look into is why the Obama administration swallowed BP's lies hook line and…”

I don’t think the Obama regime swallowed the lies but rather went along with them. This ‘accident’ (IMO) is a coordinated effort by the globalists along with their minions at the highest levels of the Federal Government to take down the U.S.

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:11 | 423807 wafflehead
wafflehead's picture

this company should be fined a billion just for making such a ridiculous comment of 5000/barrels a day.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:31 | 423836 I need more asshats
I need more asshats's picture

If Obama had any balls he should have sent a drone to sink that fuckers sailboat yesterday.

A steel wedge shaped projectile could have been explained as space debris broken free from a satellite.

Pompous cock sucker. Not Obama, Hayward. Well maybe both come to think of it.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:05 | 423892 IrishSamurai
IrishSamurai's picture

Your avatar name is irony defined ...

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/104313-obama-hits-golf-...

Let me know when Obama's "Now watch this drive ... " moment finally penetrates your partisan, asshat noggin ...

 

 

 

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:16 | 423903 I need more asshats
I need more asshats's picture

Ya think? Takes an asswipe to figure that out. The only penetration taking place is Obamas first and ONLY term, or maybe Michelle.... Suck a cock faggot.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:18 | 423812 not a good name
not a good name's picture

bp submitted a worse case to the govt of something like 240k barrels before they even drilled this well

 

also, after the explosion but before the rig sunk they submitted an estimate of 20k barrels to the govt; the idiots in the govt came up with the initial 1k and later 5k (though bp didn't issue a corrective press release)

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:07 | 423895 IrishSamurai
IrishSamurai's picture

These facts you speak of ... are intriguing.  I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter.

 

/This in no way abdicates BP of their responsibility, but this ignorant hysteria about BP's "cover up" is absurd at best and blatantly dishonest at worst.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:18 | 423813 yabs
yabs's picture

I'm sorry but this articel states BP covered this up

anyone with a pair of eys and a brain can

have a look at their live feed of the spill and

can estimate the leakage

By looking at that it wouldn't be hard to imagine a barrel of oil filling up every second or so

thats about 200,000 barrels a day

not including otewhr leaks

If people thought it was only 1000 after they looked at the live feed thay are as thick as pig shit

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:16 | 423902 bingaling
bingaling's picture

+1000 - never thought of such a common sense thing - you are right .

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:19 | 423907 IrishSamurai
IrishSamurai's picture

Exactly. 

J6P: The media tells me X, but my eyes tell me Y.  I guess X is right and there is a cover-up.

We are a nation of imbeciles.

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 17:55 | 424057 VK
VK's picture

There are 86,400 seconds in a day, so 1 barrel per second would make it 86,400bpd. It's probably around there or slightly less then that.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:22 | 423821 Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

Tony should have watched this...

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyyGoPerzWc

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 18:10 | 424065 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Wow !!

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 20:15 | 424170 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

hehe, Gorgeous George. . . he was voted in to parliament to represent the district I lived in back in the late 80's Glasgow - hella orator, to be sure. . . the Scots resistance to Thatcher's policies brought him into power, and despite a couple of bumps in the road, I must say he's held his ground over the years - still love to watch him tell someone to "get tae fuck" like this clip shows. . . (note the continuous eye contact on HIS part, vs. the slimeball he's addressing, hehe)

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:26 | 423830 knukles
knukles's picture

If the spill was as small as has been initially (5,000 bls/d) talked about incessantly, which came about subsequent to Initial Reports of it being the result of a Major Find (try 100,000+++++ bls/d) there Would Be No Major Environmental Problem.

Of course it's BIG.  On to the next pertinent topic.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:43 | 423856 gasmiinder
gasmiinder's picture

Did anyone actually READ the document?  It discusses possible worst-case scenario rates.  Than states that if everything they assume is wrong and everything fell apart then it could conceivably reach 100,000 bopd.  But the Congressman and the article author and apparently everyone capable of commenting immediately goes to "the well is flowing 100,000 bopd and BP has always known it".

You want to know why anyone with a brain refuses to release information? It's because actual thought and rational evaluation no longer exists.  Spin is king regardless of the political orientation and we are loosing the ability to discuss ANYTHING in a rational fashion.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:49 | 423866 Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

You want to know why anyone with a brain refuses to release information? It's because actual thought and rational evaluation no longer exists.  Spin is king regardless of the political orientation and we are loosing the ability to discuss ANYTHING in a rational fashion.

+1

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 16:34 | 423961 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Spin leads to controversy and controversy sells better than a rational analysis.

I am not sure that the ability is lost. It is simply less sexy than spin.

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 20:53 | 424199 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

You are 100% correct, and this thread is a perfect demonstration of that fact.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 22:27 | 424321 Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

You are 100% correct, and this thread is a perfect demonstration of that fact.

+1

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:46 | 423858 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

I too am surprised by the bending of
language and the implication to readers
that aren't paying attention that the
flow rates are already that high.

BP's own SEC filing indicates a worst
case of 260k/d rate if we are going to
go yellow journalist why not use the
biggest number there is?

Simmons implied the rate was 120k/d
now - not a worst case rate if some
other bad things happened.

Yes if other bad things happen the
rate will go up.  Its been 6 weeks
and thats not worthy of a headline.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:49 | 423867 Royal Wulff
Royal Wulff's picture

BP never claimed 1000 bbl/day. And they never claimed it was 5000 bbl/day.

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:49 | 423868 yabs
yabs's picture

it is obvioulsy 200,000 now worst case if it collapses

1million plus

how stupid can people be to believe this shit

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:50 | 423871 Akrunner907
Akrunner907's picture

The company should be fined ZERO!  Instead of taking a bite out of the shareholders, the management and well operators should forfeit any monies they have in BP and be required to serve a 15 to 20 year prison term.  That would send the correct message and deal with the penalty of the truly guilty!

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:51 | 423872 FrankIvy
FrankIvy's picture

1st - To assfire and everybody else who posts comments suggesting that, "these sorts of articles hurt the credibility of ZH.com."  F---  ---f.  Why are you worried about the credibility of ZH?  Worry about your own.  What you really mean to say is that you don't like the point of the posting. 

 

2nd - I respond to this - "It is stunning to discover that a major multi-national corporation could be so daring as to lie to shareholders, Congress and taxpayers."

If that was sarcasm, then fine.  If not, then it's incredibly naive.  Fundamentally, people are liars.  What's surprising about the folks running a legal fiction that is entirely based on the premise of making money lying about something?

3rd - I respond to this - "The next question that Congress may want to look into is why the Obama administration swallowed BP's lies hook line and collapsing GoM floor bed, without using an independent 3rd party verification . . . ." Same comment.  Obama is a shill.  He's a hack.  He's not in over his head, because he's not in at all.  The great black puppet.  A confidence man of the worst kind.

Other than the reason the well is there at all, I'm not sure how this ties into peak oil.  I'll been a PO expectationist for 4 years now.  All indicators are that we're hitting a production cliff right now.  With the ships heading through Suez, and Cheney's (911 architect) prints on the GOM rig, it may all be tied together.

You know what I love about ZH.com?  It's a sophisticated economics site with a nasty libertarian bent.  It's awesome because it rubs shit in the face of every apple-pie-eating, MBA/business major, America is great ass wipe who comes here for the economics stuff but loathes to read articles ripping the crap they hold dear.

 

Love it.

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 00:08 | 424484 Dont Taze Me Bro
Dont Taze Me Bro's picture

Frank,

Any article that ventures too far outside of finance will hurt the credibility of ZH because this is primarily a financial blog.

Just look at all the wannabe oil experts on this thread. I bet none of these people have ever seen an oil rig in person.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 14:55 | 423879 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

will he comeback as chairman emeritus...of Simmons&Co?

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:02 | 423883 Citizen of an I...
Citizen of an IKEA World's picture

This is going to ripple through pensions and stock markets and giant investment banks and in the final resulting catastrophe we're all going to take it up the annulus.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:01 | 423885 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Now, gusher watchers, in classic playbook style, we will watch Mr. Simmons, who has the world's ear, up his estimate again. And again.Till we come somewhere close to the truth of what is really going on here.

When Obama compared this to 9/11, he wasn't being genuine or sincere or dot connecting. Or making simple analogies.

He was speaking from a playbook that let us all know that we are dealing, again, with a massive cover-up. A massive inside-job (maybe not the leak itself in this case, but the cover up for sure).

This is all subtle meme injection.

The nuke meme is out there now.
The massive methane bubble meme is out there now.
The massive dislocation of people meme is out there now.
The "false-flag" meme is out there now.
The Iran/Israel meme is stronger than ever.

It will take one convenient gust to bring the whole house of cards down.
And the only thing we will never know is the timing.

I predict July 21st.

Just a strong gut feel.

Get ready. It's going to be a hell of a ride.

Also, watch for the market ramp, in the midst of this whole mess, to a 1241 or 1214 close. That is the day to quit the market.

It is written.

ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 17:04 | 424000 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

It will take one convenient gust to bring the whole house of cards down.
And the only thing we will never know is the timing.

I predict July 21st.

Just a strong gut feel.

 

^^ . . . I was going with any time between the 21 & the 26 July as the next "surprising event" to manifest - and I suspect we're using the same set of indicators OrI. . .

the next few months are game-changers, particularly for the US.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 23:02 | 424385 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Tough times for all Cathartes, but the US will feel the brunt, the short end of the stick.

And the signs are so clear for those with eyes to see, yes?

We are all so inter-connected. The game, as we know it being played all these years? It's in injury time now, where only the referee knows when he's going to "blow".

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:03 | 423888 yabs
yabs's picture

ZH really has to be the best source of news , economic or otherwise on the planet right now

god bless ZH

the truth hurts those who can't handle the truth

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 20:39 | 424187 RichardP
RichardP's picture

TheOilDrum.com is a better source for news of the gulf blowout.

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:09 | 423896 DavidRicardo
DavidRicardo's picture

The spill will go to completion, that is, until there is no more oil in this particular drill.  That will be in January 2011.  Nothing can or will be done about this.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:12 | 423899 Sir Lancelot
Sir Lancelot's picture

what happens when small people with small minds talk about big things? ...read the document before rendering judgement folks

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:22 | 423910 FrankIvy
FrankIvy's picture

"what happens when small people with small minds talk about big things?"

Um. It gets entered into the Congressional Record?

 

But seriously, what's your complaint, specifically?

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:30 | 423913 bingaling
bingaling's picture

The wellbore is compromised and they are underestimating AGAIN as to what will happen in the near future .Like someone said above "look at the live feed at the well it looks like  2 barrels a second could be filled. " I dont believe a word out of Thad allens mouth or BP's this is being massively underplayed even by the MSM. 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:27 | 423916 thesapein
thesapein's picture

I hate to agree, sort of, here. It doesn't say anything really new. The worst case scenario was always a full blown leak below at the well. What's more important is the evidence for it, which we now have, but is not included in the doc.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:20 | 423909 yabs
yabs's picture

David

dream on it will be a lot longer than that

more like january 2013. I bet there is at least a billion barrels down there

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 19:01 | 424116 DavidRicardo
DavidRicardo's picture

Not being a fan of the oil cartel, I would be happy to be proved wrong.  What is your evidence that this spill is going until January 2013?  Anyone else?

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 21:16 | 424215 RichardP
RichardP's picture

You are commenting and you think there is at least a billion barrels down there?  The conventional wisdom about the size of the oil field has been posted here and at theoildrum.com many times (and it is much bigger than what you state).  But you don't know??  Yet you speculate anyway.  Why should we pay attention to what you say?

There are facts available about what is going on in the gulf.  It would probably be good if you found some of them so they can inform your opinion.

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:28 | 423917 merehuman
merehuman's picture

the truth hurts those who run from it

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:38 | 423927 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

It appears that the BOP support is being erroded away, as it is beginning to lean.  The ROVs have also added instrument readout of an Inclinometer.  If the BOP does collapse, we will have a full-force open wellhead and nothing will stop it.

When they were placing the Top Cap, crude starting spewing from several fissures, including the well casing.  THAT is why it was stopped.  As one engineer said, it is like turning a damaged garden hose off.  The fissures become readily apparent as water spews forth.

The relief well is just another diversion...

It is NOT what is being told, but what ISN'T being told...

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:40 | 423928 bingaling
bingaling's picture

+100

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 16:32 | 423960 Screwloose
Screwloose's picture

There's no reason to think that the BOP support will be eroding - the only high-speed flow is through the partially-closed shear jaws which are well above that point.  They will be slowly eroding - the rate depending on the amount of sand coming up the well.

The inclinometer would have been added during the top-kill experiment, as the pressures used to force the mud backwards down the well were five times the oil's pressure and buckling of the, possibly damaged, casing must have been a concern.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 16:45 | 423978 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Excerpt From The Oil Drum:

"...the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? ...it won't be too long after that the entire system fails..."

As reported, the well casing has been breached in at least one major area and the erosion is accelerating...

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 17:28 | 424026 Screwloose
Screwloose's picture

IIRC that posting was not supported by the experts on that site on the grounds that there was currently no evidence of external well leakage.  The clear water in the ROV shots should be obscured if that were happening.

Where is the evidence that the casing is breached?  It may be suspected; but suspicion isn't fact.

The only proven fact that any professional engineer would accept is that a substantial quantity of fluid can be seen issuing from the top of the wellhead under pressure - everything else is supposition and guesswork.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 16:45 | 423979 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Then I am to assume that after 2 months of oil, gas, sand and rock flow up thru the riser at anywhere between 10k and 70kpsi has had no degrading effect.  Illogical.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 17:40 | 424039 Screwloose
Screwloose's picture

There's quite an interesting thread on the erosion factor on theoildrum.com - far too long to copy onto here.

Pressure on its own doesn't erode; it's the speed of flow that does the damage.  The fastest flow speed is through the narrowest gap - the shear jaws - so that's where the erosion is taking place.

The well is designed to carry basically what's coming up it for many years of production; the pressure at the base of the BOP is around 4,800lbf/sq/in - well within design spec - and some of the ludicrous 6-figure pressures being bandied about the MSM would have launched the entire wellhead into low earth orbit.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 18:29 | 424070 bingaling
bingaling's picture

they cut corners everywhere else.We already know the cement they used wasn't up to spec .We heard every other CEO of other oil companies say they would have never done the project like BP did . Who is to say the well is to spec. ? BP ?I haven't heard from anybody who was actually on the rig .Have you?

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 22:14 | 424290 Augustus
Augustus's picture

No, WE don't Know that the cement material was not up to spec.  There you go again, demonstrating that you know very little about what you write about with such certainty.

Cement jobs don't always accomplish the purpose.  That is not unusual or rare.  The failure was in how the job was checked.  Some wells require that the same job be done three or four times on the same stage to get the seal.

You haven't heard from anyone who was on the rig?  Were you expecting a phone call?  If you want to read their testimony and statements you can find what they said at the congressional hearings or at the hearing that was held down in Louisiana.  Did you do that, or are you just pulling junk out of your butt?

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 18:21 | 424079 AssFire
AssFire's picture

These non-technical types do not understand screwLoose- I don't know why we are wasting our time. If is very very low velocity at 1000 ft and has 9000 ft intact beneath it with more tan enough pipe weight to keep it in place by its own weight alone.. Poor pencilpushing doom & gloomers on this subject totally undermine the respectable job ZH does on economic issues.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 18:35 | 424094 bingaling
bingaling's picture

If you want to talk about the economics of this I would be glad to .

Tourism in the Gulf -Dead

Fishing industry- Dead

Real Estate -Dead

Oil industry- Dead

Banks- Dead

Retail -Dead

Construction-Dead

Healthcare- High Growth

Welcome to what is soon to be called "New Detroit".

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 22:18 | 424301 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

anti-depressant and booze sales should skyrocket.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 20:08 | 424160 Screwloose
Screwloose's picture

I don't know why I try either; I guess it's just the way I am - I'm a diagnostic engineer, a professional troubleshooter and, on arrival, I'm only ever interested in acquiring the hardest of facts in the minimum time possible.

I can therefore empathize with the poor guys struggling to stop this rolling nightmare - but I wouldn't want to be in their boots.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 22:08 | 424284 Augustus
Augustus's picture

They always lose as whatever video game they play ends in an explosive disaster.  Those are the way real life goes, aren't they?

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 22:18 | 424300 Pike Bishop
Pike Bishop's picture

These non-technical types do not understand screwLoose- I don't know why we are wasting our time.

Good, don't. Your critical-thinking fallacy to authority also assumes you have correct and sufficient information. BP's track record leading up-to, and during the event, indicates less than a 100% probability that all information considered fact, is both accurate and provides all one needs to know, in the aggregate.

I'm all for proceeding on decision-making and problem-solving based on vetted facts alone. It is the best you can do.

But I remind us, that historically, the worst shithouse outcomes are a result of hidden assumptions in the facts, as well as data which is incomplete, or outright wrong. But the people in charge refused to accept contrary indications.

As neither BP, nor the US government who is obligated by law to protect the Public Trust, have even attempted to find a solution for a runaway deep well, they are likely to never have established sound empirical measures of flow on a mile deep well.

If the fundamental principles of problem-solving models come to bear on this situation, your probabilities for finding the best solution drop dramatically when you wait for the disaster to present itself. It is highly likely that you won't field a solution in the top 10 of best solutions. (No solution has to-date been attempted, which is beyond solutions attempted on a much more shallow well in the '70s, ie zero technological advances) If you need recent evidence of this principle, the likely candidate would be the hysterically rendered TARP money which was never used to resolve "troubled assets".

The fact is that the people and culture who caused the problem, are still in charge of the solution. An effective, private enterprise businessman who came new to the company and situation would get those assholes out of there, because people who create a major shitstorm, are less likely to come up with an effective and efficient solution. This is due to the very predictable human behavior of such things, among others, as denial and the cognitive contortions needed for asscovering.

As most of the reference technical blueprints were not signed by anybody, including the in-process inspectors, which is a requirement... you have no way to vet that the quality of the pipe and welds are all that you think they are.

Compared to fact, your claims for pipe weight (which is not a singular issue, as construction integrity also plays into the resistance) are an assumption masquerading as a verified fact.

As both BP, and the US Government have proven themselves as abysmal failures at dealing with or solving this situation, I'm all for measuring the breadth of what is likely to be remembered as the worst eco-disaster in the history of the United States.

And I'm not going to depend on them.. because they are going to be paying the bill with money and political careers.

Attending to simple logic, I don't think they have any reason to properly measure their historic disaster.

 

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 00:03 | 424478 Augustus
Augustus's picture

As neither BP, nor the US government who is obligated by law to protect the Public Trust, have even attempted to find a solution for a runaway deep well, they are likely to never have established sound empirical measures of flow on a mile deep well.

It has been about 60 days now since the blowout.  You still do not know that the well depth is 18,000' fsl?  You also seem to not be aware that two relief wells are being drilled.  Don't let a lack of knowledge of commonly available information stop you from jumping to a nonsense conclusion.

As most of the reference technical blueprints were not signed by anybody, including the in-process inspectors, which is a requirement... you have no way to vet that the quality of the pipe and welds are all that you think they are.

The pipe is inspected onshore and offshore to determine that it meets the specs.  And, BTW, you should know that it is screwed together, not welded.  Don't let any facts get in the way of your story.

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 05:24 | 424679 spithridates
spithridates's picture

that the well depth is 18,000' fsl

Yeah, baby.

two relief wells are being drilled

Well, yes they do. They can fucking drill the whole Gulf, but the oil is still leaking. Why, on earth, should I think that their actions would make situation better, if the previous "top kill" operation epically failed?

The pipe is inspected onshore and offshore to determine that it meets the specs

Oh, I feel much better right know. A group of corrupted motherfuckers "inspected" results of the cover up operation performed by the their crony friends.

Your facts have no relation to any meaningful issue. Let's check how your "superior knowledge and understanding of the problem" will help us to answer the questions...

1. How much BOPD is leaking every day? - Fail

2. What is the most efficient way to stop the leakage or will drilling of two wells actually help? - Fail

3. How long this nightmare will last? - Fail

4. Economical damage to industry and environment (in billions/trillions of $) - Fail

Verdict: Get fucking lost with your facts.

 

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 23:37 | 424439 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Hey could you find this guy's moluecules at 1:23 in this video and put him back together and explain to him it's only 4,800 lbf/sq/in.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lP9GM6nlzII

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 22:18 | 424303 Augustus
Augustus's picture

No.  It is your failure to understand what you ARE being told.

The relief well was what BP initially stated was the solution.  Who told you that crude started pewing from several "fissures"?  Allen specifically stated that they stopped the top kill operation so that there would NOT be a pipe split.

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 00:19 | 424493 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

A lot of people posting here need to read "The New Rational Manager", by Charles H. Kepner and Benjamin B. Tregoe, Princeton Research Press, Lib of Congress #80-84367 [no ISBN # found on my copy]

It's amazing how many people will jump to conclusions with very little in the way of solid data to support them.  Not saying that it applies to you Augustus.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:43 | 423931 ATG
ATG's picture

Not so sure 0 swallowed BP lies hook line and sinker, as marketed them,

saying The seafood is fine, Tt's a great time to come to the coast,

sucking a slurpee of Hawaiian ice with Haley

while BP et al did their best to black out real news, pun intended.

BP, whose revenues in recent years were a billion a day,

bought an American president guaranteeing higher oil prices for $20 B.

The Chinese got the Clintongs their Swiss accounts for less. Inflation you know...

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 15:45 | 423932 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Yup!  Hey, Mr. Messiah, how was that FARM RAISED seafood?

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 19:12 | 424126 Snake
Snake's picture

i wonder how much did the bushes, cheneys, halliburtons et al get?

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 22:23 | 424313 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

That is the going rate.  Politicians are cheap.  It's the highest ROI you can buy.

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 00:22 | 424498 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Obamatron:  "Hey, you spilled incompetence all over my corruption!"

BP:  "Well, you squeezed corruption into my incompetence!"

Boy, boys, you're both right, it's two colossal presidential failures in one!

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 16:43 | 423972 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Just for Sh*ts and Giggles, keep an eye posted on the increasing quake activity for Cuba, P.R., V.I. and Dominican Rep.  As the pressure and stress points change, and they are all located along the New Madrid fault, I would not recommend any real estate purchases in Memphis.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 16:49 | 423984 Vasco7777
Vasco7777's picture

"up the annulus..."

That sort of sums up this clusterfuck of an environmental assault with a greasy weapon.


 


Sun, 06/20/2010 - 20:00 | 424153 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

the american public has shown they can take millions of barrels of BS up their annulus

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 17:07 | 424003 Carpet Pisser
Carpet Pisser's picture

This image speaks for itself and belongs on the front page of every major U.S. newspaper and magazine (which of course will not happen):

 http://www.alexkearns.com/2010/06/today-in-gulf.html 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 17:14 | 424009 mcguire
mcguire's picture

two of the best articles i have read concerning the bp disaster:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/17390/111965

http://www.newswithviews.com/Weeks/darren111.htm

 

 

 

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 18:31 | 424091 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

I'm sorry, but this is a bogus headline.  The 100K per day figure assumes they intentionally REMOVE THE WELLHEAD!  That's not on anyone's to do list, not even after the relief wells are completed.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 22:02 | 424277 Augustus
Augustus's picture

What is even more of a scam in the original post is that Admiral Allen did not even confirm in any way that there was a casing leak.  If you read his remarks carefully, you can find that he stated that they stopped the Top Kill so there would not be any casing damage.  The claim that there is some sort of a casing leak are certainly unproven.

The comment about not knowing what the well bore condition was, I believe, refers to the bottom 1,000 ft or so where they were trying to cement before the blowout. 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 19:03 | 424117 DavidRicardo
DavidRicardo's picture

HOW LONG?

 

I think we've all signed off on the idea that this is not going to be stopped.  How much more oil, and for how long, until there is no more from this drill?

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 02:23 | 424614 walküre
walküre's picture

Until we accept $250 p/barrel and $10 gallon gas as the new normal.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 19:07 | 424122 Snake
Snake's picture

 

 

Oil industry ... pollution awareness ... globalization, greed is good, Africa, the US, it all seems real now ...

http://www.amnesty.org/en/news-and-updates/news/oil-industry-has-brought...

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 20:03 | 424155 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

globalization has shown its real math play out time and time again..  sounds great on paper for a few honest wonderful examples.. but like bringing all the women into the workforce, the final equation fucks us all in the end

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 19:57 | 424151 MacHoolahan
MacHoolahan's picture

One of the signature failings of the "Western Way of Life" in this well-fed, well-housed, comfortably-numb corner of the world is that despite all our "rights" and "freedoms" there is no real sanction, applied or even yet dreamt of, to prevent those in power *lying to us*.

There is just no penalty. But it is the widening crack by which it is all due to be undone.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 21:58 | 424270 Augustus
Augustus's picture

We.  Want.  Something.  Here.  NOW.  And without cost seems to have been a successful lie.

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 00:26 | 424508 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

When the majority of the electorate benefits from those lies, whose gonna change the game?  Look at Social Security for example:

http://reason.com/blog/2008/10/24/saving-social-security-episode

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 20:06 | 424158 MacHoolahan
MacHoolahan's picture

On an unrelated note - the Senate "grilling" seemed to go down much the same as the Goldman version a month before.

The accountability is nil for all these big companies.

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 00:27 | 424510 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Wake me when the "Grilling" involves real, hot grills -- or red hot pokers!

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 20:57 | 424204 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

I love all the industry shills who show up here to say"it's not so bad."

You guys are a scream. Really. But how do you sleep at night.  Well, on second thought, sociopathic types probably sleep pretty well.

Lies are so much better than the truth, don't you think? It's a heck of alot easier.

BP bankrupt by fall, full extent of disaster by then understood. Second dip down, caused by the exogenous event. All bets off.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 21:23 | 424224 RichardP
RichardP's picture

"I love all the industry shills who show up here to say"it's not so bad.""

No one here is saying it's not so bad.  A few folks are saying "stick to the facts" - both of the current situation and of what we know physics will allow.

 

 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 21:43 | 424242 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

It's the ME-thane, stupid! The whole freeking contents are being propelled out the drill hole in vastly unprecedented quantities as if BP had any clue about the situation at 5,000 feet..a reachable moment? BP didn't bother to note the phenomenal data that SLB was screaming about. What ever it means, BP is at least incompetent to manage a situation where denial is more expedient that millions of USD per day..we are all Ogoni now as Ken Saro-Wiwa might say if Sani Obacha hadn't murdered that beautiful soul-poet on November 8, 1995 because he had the cojones to speak out about the destruction of his homeland by RDSa in Nigeria. BP is dead and one in US..the real Tea Party is throwing their sorry ass to the wolves of law

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 21:45 | 424250 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

Simmons said the casing blew out, meaning "if "true, the relief well will be intersecting in a hole in the rock with no steel and fail. Also he said the BOP was only rated 15,000psi, and they knew the pressure was 60,000 psi.(MMS I guess approved it)

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 21:55 | 424265 Augustus
Augustus's picture

The well logs and the mud logs are available for inspection.  The pressure in the productive formation was about 12,500#.  The well was under controll using 18,000 ft of 14.6 ppg mud.  that is the pressure that it took to keep the oil and gas from moving out of the formation.  Simmons' 60,000# comment is just evidence that he has lost it.  Anyone who would believe it is a simpleton who should not have been moved from high school physics class.  They are also likey to believe a movie of calamity by AlGore.

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 22:20 | 424308 Gigem77
Gigem77's picture

Thanks for supplying the facts.  The Investor Village BRY board has some engineers posting similar things.  The Simmons story is sad.  

Anyone that has paid attention knows the rate now is different from before the riser was cut which was much different than right after the initial accident.  The problem is 99% of the public don't know. 

Be advised that Markey is pushing cap and trade.   The  "worst case" document was posted on the Internet at http://globalwarming.house.gov/files/WEB/flowrateBP.pdf"

Funny how these little things are clipped off on this site. 
Sun, 06/20/2010 - 22:41 | 424351 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

No one will Be Paying attention to the small people until Wormwood. 

Sun, 06/20/2010 - 22:54 | 424371 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

Time for me to buy some more puts. C'mon guys join in. Let's really pump up that put open interest on this shit hole company. 

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 00:16 | 424490 Augustus
Augustus's picture

This is the third or fourth article on Zerohedge that is determined to spread the Matt Simmons nonsense.  All seem to start with that fairy tale and continue with predictions of the end of the world as the entire GOM is consumed by a well with a 65' pay zone.  Now that you know where Kevin Costner is, write up the disaster movie fantasy and get it down to him.

Is this evidence of a desperate attempt to manipulate the price of BP lower?  Maybe some are concerned that they missed covering the shorts at 29 and need to get it back to that price?  Continually referencing the discredited theories of Simmons must be part of a strategy is all that I can conclude.  I've personally got a small position through options that will profit on a decline in BP.  There will only be bad news and misrepresentations until the well is killed in August.  The legal overhang will be unknowable for 10 years.  I'd be cautious on making that Go To Zero bet.

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 00:27 | 424509 MGA_1
MGA_1's picture

Worst environmental disaster in the history of mankind, and obama is....

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 00:30 | 424515 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Still trying to "Plug the hole!"  Whose, we do not know.

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 01:02 | 424549 Augustus
Augustus's picture

In the US, look at the volcano explosions at Yellowstone.

There were some volcano explosions in india that went on for maybe a couple of centuries.

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 01:05 | 424553 Dolly
Dolly's picture

Augustus - well said. 

There's too many dubious / inane posts on ZH.

 

The references above to circular trades at ICE only relate to one company that got caught and fined. Saying that ICE isn't regulated in the USA is hardly a claim to say that it isn't regulated at all - it's probably better regulated in Europe that it would be if it were in the USA. I've been associated with ICE at inception and it's a great idea that really makes the trading world more efficient and more liquid. You need to remember that the partners that own it were only oil market participants because that amount of initial liquidity was required to get it off the ground.

As for the BP document. I'm sure that there are dozens of people in BP legitimately looking at all scenarios and taking one document out of context doesn't exactly say anything at all. If you were to get a GE letterhead and type "we are owned by the Devil" does that make it true ? Be sensible folks.

As for Matt Simmons, where is his mysterious second leak a few miles away ? Joker in the pack who is planning to get as much publicity as he can so that in a few years we'll all remember his name but most will have forgotten what garbage he churned out.

Less talking one's book please and more concrete analysis......

 

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 02:17 | 424610 walküre
walküre's picture

What purpose does a live feed from several thousands feet deep down under the sea serve the viewing public?

Monumental. Live. On the computer. Must be true!!??

Who benefits?

What starts to happen to the minds of millions of people that can watch the desaster unfold, every day, every minute and gettting worse?

Again, what is the purpose? What purpose does that serve?

The landing on the moon was "live" broadcast. So was the murder of JFK and most recently, the events of 9/11.

Now we have GoM. The area is restricted above but a live feed on the internet shows Americans and the people of the world how that oil just keeps spewing and spewing and spewing...

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 13:46 | 425194 Augustus
Augustus's picture

The live feed was set up to benefit the political purposes and demands of Rep Markey.  It is being show to further his cap and trade agenda and ultimately deny US citizens access to energy. 

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 03:37 | 424642 Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

Cap and Trade and the Companies that are gunning for it.

UNITED STATES CLIMATE ACTION PARTNERSHIP

 

 

 


"USCAP: Obama’s Address Highlights Need for Action


Washington, D.C. (June 15, 2010)


 

The following is a statement from the U.S. Climate Action Partnership regarding the Oval Office address by President

Obama:


President Obama’s Oval Office address highlights the urgent need to move our nation towards a


more sustainable energy future. We agree that now is the time for action to address our energy

and climate challenges.

USCAP believes that America must take control of its energy and economic future while

enhancing our national security. We urge Congress to enact national energy and climate

legislation this year to reinvigorate our economy, create American jobs, unleash American

innovation, improve our energy security, and protect our environment.

USCAP continues to work with the Administration, Congress, and other stakeholders to enact

economically sustainable, environmentally effective, and fair energy and climate legislation that

is politically achievable this year."

USCAP Members Include:

http://www.us-cap.org/

 

BP started having problems around February 10th.

http://www.georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2010/06/did-bp-oil-well-blow-out-in-february.html

Letter about BP quitting USCAP on February 16th.

http://www.us-cap.org/PHPages/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/USCAP_MembershipChanges021610.pdf

 

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 05:51 | 424689 jesusonline
jesusonline's picture

And you wonder, just four days ago a bunch of brain-dead twat monkies here talked smack about Simmons:

He is clearly a plant. The timing is such a give-away.
When folks are saying 5,000 BPD he is saying 60,000.

When MSM says 60,000, he says 120,000.

This is manufactured Cognitive Dissonance.

Such a classic sheeple control method (also known as SCM). Nah, I just made that up. But really.

Powerful industry insider, known blowhard, often pre-scient, makes outrageous claim.

 

I say - feed people more MSM, clearly they dont got enough of it yet. 

Mon, 06/21/2010 - 08:04 | 424733 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

EURO buying support i've mentioned over the past few weeks has resulted in a bullish basing pattern on the daily chart. The important weekly chart remains bearish though.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com/about

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!