Internal BP Document Confirms Matt Simmons' Worst Case Prediction Of Spill Rate Of 100,000+ Barrels Per Day

Tyler Durden's picture

An internal BP document released by the chairman of the Energy and Environment Subcommittee in the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Ed Markey, discloses what the vast majority already know - that a "worst case" gusher scenario could be as high as 100,000 barrels of oil per day. According to an exhibit discussing flow rate probabilities, BP says that "If BOP and wellhead are removed and if we have incorrectly modeled the
restrictions – the rate could be as high as ~ 100,000 barrels per day
up the casing or 55,000 barrels per day up the annulus (low probability
worst cases)
." This is getting very close to the estimate presented previously by Matt Simmons that the flow rate could be as high as 120,000 bpd. As Markey notes, "This number is in sharp contrast to BP’s initial claim that the leak
was just 1,000 barrels a day. At the time this document was made
available to Congress, BP claimed the leak was 5,000 barrels a day, and
told Members of the House Energy and Commerce Committee that the worst
case scenario was be 60,000 barrels a day.
This document tells a
different story." It is stunning to discover that a major multi-national corporation could be so daring as to lie to shareholders, Congress and taxpayers. The next question that Congress may want to look into is why the Obama administration swallowed BP's lies hook line and collapsing GoM floor bed, without using an independent 3rd party verification, and what the liability to the firm would be if the official flow rate is revised to be twice higher than the current worse case scenario. We are confident that as more of the structural integrity of the seabed collapses, that even Simmons' estimate will prove to be conservative.

More from Ed Markey:

“Considering what is now known about BP’s problems with this well prior to the Deepwater Horizon explosion, including cementing issues, leaks in the blowout preventer and gas kicks, BP should have been more honest about the dangerous condition of the well bore,” said Markey, the chairman of the Energy and Environment Subcommittee in the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

On Thursday, Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen was asked in his daily briefing about the condition of the well bore.  He said there, “So what I would tell you is we don’t know exactly the condition of the well bore. And that’s one of the unknowns that we’re managing around in terms of risks.  And that’s the reason we didn’t go, didn’t go to excessive pressures on the top kill and decided that we’d deal with containment and then go for the final relief well.”

According to Admiral Allen: "I think that one thing that nobody knows is the condition of the well bore from below the blowout preventer down to the actual oil field itself.  And we don’t know, we don’t know if the well bore has been compromised or not."

What the BP document suggests that if the well bore is compromised or becomes compromised, we now know we could be looking at a flow rate 100 times BP's initial estimate.  Even if we can't know for certain the condition of the well bore, we should have known how much oil could flow from it--BP did.

“When the oil spill started, BP said it was only 1,000 barrels a day. Now we know it could end up being 100 times larger than that in a worst-case scenario,” said Markey. “This document raises very troubling questions about what BP knew and when they knew it. It is clear that, from the beginning, BP has not been straightforward with the government or the American people about the true size of this spill. Now the families living and working in the Gulf are suffering from their incompetence.”

“BP needs to tell us what it will do if the well bore is compromised and 100,000 barrels per day of oil spills into the ocean.
At this point, we need real contingency planning, not a plan with dead scientists and walruses,” said Markey.


Smoking gun BP exhibits:

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jkruffin's picture

They don't care, within 2-3 more weeks they will be hiring bankruptcy lawyers to scam out of every claim they would ever have to pay. And any judge should disallow any attempt by them to file bankruptcy until every asset they have is sold off and every claim paid.

Gully Foyle's picture


Make of this what you will.

Ilargi: There are more examples than one can even try to sum up when it comes to painting the picture of the perversity and ineptitude of the US political system. The so-called grilling of Tony Hayward a few days ago was one prime example. The BP CEO started out with a "so sorry" statement that was an almost exact copy of a recent BP mea culpa TV ad. 

When responding to the subsequent questions, Hayward mainly repeated the same line over and over: he wasn’t there when it happened, he had no influence on the decision-making process concerning the Macondo well, it was not his personal fault, and moreover, he was the very man who had announced strict safety measures when he took the job. Absolute habberdash, obviously, all of it, but it didn't matter one iota to Tony Hayward. 

The reason why, or at least a major one, became clear the day after the "grilling": Tony Hayward was "relieved of his duties" that same day, to be replaced by some American deputy director at the company. Not replaced as CEO, mind you, but as BP's "face" in the US. 

Capitol Hill, therefore, looks like the bunch of ass-clowns they are. Any further or follow-up questions will not be answered by the company's CEO anymore. They can now complain, whine and yell at his servant. Obviously, this was a decision that had been made a while ago; let Tony take the flack, he's leaving anyway.

In the past two weeks, despite Obama's moratorium on offshore drilling, the White House (through The Department of Interior's Minerals (Mis)Management Service has signed off on at least five new offshore drilling projects. That all by itself provides a much clearer idea of where the power lies, and where the truth, than all the made-for-media show trials together. 

BP has signed off on a $20 billion escrow fund, but it may well be liable for damages totaling over $100 billion. Judging from Tony Hayward's performance, the fourth-largest company on the planet doesn't seem too worried, or at least its directors don’t. It may be wise not to underestimate BP's political clout, in London, Washington and many other capitals around the world.

Possibly even more perverted, and more telling of how Washington works, is this from the Huffington Post:

White House Flip Flops On Reining In CEO Pay 
The White House is intervening at the last minute to come to the defense of multinational corporations in the unfolding conference committee negotiations over Wall Street reform. A measure that had been generally agreed to by both the House and Senate, which would have affirmed the SEC's authority to allow investors to have proxy access to the corporate decision-making process, was stripped by the Senate in conference committee votes on Wednesday and Thursday. 

Five sources with knowledge of the situation said the White House pushed for the measure to be stripped at the behest of the Business Roundtable. The sources -- congressional aides as well as outside advocates -- requested anonymity for fear of White House reprisal.

The White House move pits the administration against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who told Barney Frank (D-Mass.) to stand strong against the effort. "I met with the Speaker today and she said, 'Don't back down. I'll back you up,'" Frank, the lead House conferee, told HuffPost. "Maxine Waters is very upset, as are CalPERS and others." Advocates said that the corporations fought the issue primarily over executive compensation concerns. Given proxy access, investors could rein in executive salaries. The Business Roundtable is a lobby of corporate CEOs.

Yes, BP would be a natural member of the Business Roundtable. The fishermen and tourist operators on the Gulf Coast would not. If I've said it once, I must have said it a thousand times: there will be no economic recovery in the US, and neither will there be any meaningful reform, whether financial or political, as long as the final say rests with those who have the most money. 

They've gotten where they are through, and because of, the system as it is, and they will successfully resist any significant changes that would hurt their interests. That's the light in which to view for instance Obama's bizarrely numb Oval Office speech, and that’s why the White House deems it necessary to intervene on Capitol Hill on behalf of its friends and masters in the Business Roundtable.

It’s not a pretty picture that you get to see when you peer behind the curtain of spin, is it? 

doublethink's picture




The Defense Intelligence Agency filed notice this week that it plans to create a new section called Foreign Intelligence and Counterintelligence Operation Records, whose purpose will be to "document intelligence, counterintelligence, counterterrorism and counternarcotic operations relating to the protection of national security."

But while the unit's name refers to "foreign intelligence," civil liberties advocates and the Pentagon's own description of the program suggest that Americans will likely be included in the new database.


jeff montanye's picture

telling that "counternarcotic operations".  can't have people getting high on any but approved drugs.  it's a war, man.   no sacrifice too great, no price too high.  goodness it's so much better now that george w. bush is back in texas.

trav7777's picture

WOW...just WOW.

The OWNERS of corporations are having to fight in Congress to take back control of their property from the executives of those corporations.  The Boards are so packed with cronies that they have managed to steal everything not tied down and destroy the businesses like a swarm of locusts.

How many boards you think Hayward sits on?  How many for Blankfein or Dimon?  And of those boards, how many of those companies have executives who serve on JPM or GS or BP boards?  It's one GIGANTIC interlocking directorate, one big gang.

Now, the freaking OWNERS of companies are having to fight to retake control of the fucking profits that BELONG TO OWNERS, as the executives make one "business decision" after another to pay it to themselves.

I used to own part of a restaurant.  If the manager came and told me that he was paying himself all of the profits, I'd have laughed and then fired him.  That's what NEEDS TO HAPPEN here.

ALL of our representatives at ALL LEVELS need to go.  One big YOU'RE FIRED from everybody.

we as OWNERS of this nation and OWNERS of these corporations need to retake what is OURS.

Careless Whisper's picture

@ jk

they don't care, within 2-3 more weeks they will be hiring bankruptcy lawyers

you are correct that they. don't. care.

no need for bankruptcy. isn't it obvious that they cut a deal last week? go to wall street, borrow, pay claims over time... if necessary the central bankers will buy the paper don't you think? bp is too well connected to fail. not. going. to. happen.


ZerOhead's picture


Have they and their partners in crime spent the $2.5 Trillion already?

Check this out... you'll shit!

Cathartes Aura's picture

while nothing, nothing surprises me any more when it comes to the shenanigans from the financial class that controls the world as we know it, THIS is a pretty jaw-dropping piece to add to the files!

thanks ZerOhead, and /sigh.

ZerOhead's picture

Hey Aura...

And if you want this nightmare to end why not help me plan it out at "How to Peacefully Overthrow an Oligarchic Kleptocracy" (for Dummies) in the General Forum threads... please tell this nuuty critter why it can not be done and win some kind of prize!

'... there's just too much bitching and moaning going on these days.


Hephasteus's picture

It's the same theme over and over. This is how the gold market is manipulated. This is how enron worked. This is how the stock market melts up on no volume. It's just repeating the same scam over and over in every domain.

DosZap's picture


It will happen,people really underestimate the populace.

All one needs do, is look at all the restricions, and freedoms they are trying to pass, and know they fear the SMALL MAN.

King Geoge thought England was invincible also, alas, he crept away with a bloody ass, and a pocket full of IOU's.

No one,is above the LAW, and anyone, can be taken at any time,anywhere.(our history bears this out).

People do not realize it's civilians who do a lot of training of our military in marksmanship, and new idea's/, the military are you and I, Americans first.

The common citizen, is better overall in skillsets, as far as ratios go, than military.............

They took an Oath as some here have, and they take it damned seriously.

A few would follow illegal orders, but the vast majority would either follow their oaths, and help, or STAND down.

They know the country belongs to the people...........and the people are the Government........when push comes to shove.

I do not fear our folks in uniform..............they are US.

tom a taxpayer's picture

trav - Yes, it is outrageous. The company executives and boards of directors stealing from the company and shareholders in broad daylight.

In some ways the theft is similar to when the Mob moves into legitimate businesses and bleeds the company dry in a bust out operation.

As for the interlocking, crony-back-scratching board of directors, it is another reason to demand RICO prosecutions of these overlapping criminal enterprises.

The only thing that has any hope of stopping the continual rape and pillage of investors, pensioners, city and state funds, and taxpayers is to see the entire Wall Street RICO crime syndicate along with co-conspirators in the mortgage industry, the Fed, Treasury, SEC, and Congress arrested and perp walked in handcuffs to federal and state jails. Now. Not 2 years from now. 

 We need mass trials in style of the Maxiprocesso (Maxi Trial) of the Mafia in Sicily during the mid-1980s that resulted in hundreds of defendants convicted. We need 20 years-to-life hard time prison sentences for the hundreds convicted. We need RICO confiscations of the hundreds of billions in illegal "profits" from the criminal enterprises of the banks, mortgage industry, and Wall Street Mafia. 

The prosecutor who leads the charge will become a national hero. 

Fish Gone Bad's picture

BP is really f@#$ing things up for a lot of people.  The reason British Petroleum was dismissive of the amount of oil that was billowing from the sea bed is that they are fined by the amount of oil that is injected like an enema up everyone's backside. If anyone would like one of my (timely) little indignant fish, you can get one here:,238415126


BobWatNorCal's picture

"In the past two weeks, despite Obama's moratorium on offshore drilling, the White House (through The Department of Interior's Minerals (Mis)Management Service has signed off on at least five new offshore drilling projects."

Sure, but luckily for us, the fact that Obama ran a brilliant campaign means that he can run the White House. Cause his peops are real brainy.
The lack of accomplishments, job history, even legislative experience (he mostly voted "present" in the Illinois legislature and ran for Pres while in the US Senate) don't matter.

So there.

Windemup's picture

So Sorry, From Tiger Woods to Tony Hayward.

doublethink's picture


No Bankruptcy


BP’s US operations do not face bankruptcy, despite the massive spike in CDS in the wake of the Gulf oil spill disaster and some talk that such an option might make sense. Bankers reckon the only reason BP would consider bankruptcy is if it were to lose access to liquidity – and such worries were decisively dealt with last week when it became clear that banks were prepared to lend the company billions of dollars.


Clycntct's picture

Yes we will pay.

Can I borrow a couple 20-50 billion

So sorry we are now broke and we owe so much money with no possibility of paying it back.


dcb's picture

It looks like they hav been taking their playbook of morals from goldman sachs.

ZerOhead's picture

Why not?

They are already partners in a... wait for it... $2.5 trillion dollar oil scam with none other than Goldman Sachs. Somebody should run an article on ICE... 2.5T sounds like a lot of money to me...

And you thought oil prices were high because of peak oil... :)

According to Davis, the scam starts in 2000 with the formation of the ICE - the Intercontinental Exchange. The ICE - founded by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BP, Total, Shell, Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale - is an online commodities and futures marketplace that exists outside the US and operates free from the constraints of US laws.


Hephasteus's picture

"Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BP, Total, Shell, Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale"

Cool the who's who in bankruptcy 2010, 2011.

Careless Whisper's picture

and ICE recently purchased the chicago climate exchange, so the usual suspects that have been named are pushing hard for cap and trade so they can make a few trillion on the carbon credits that they will gladly trade for you.

Hephasteus's picture

Ya. They aren't running haarp constantly any more. So they are trying to make it even more sporadic on weather in order to get things going back with the carbon credit exchange.

Unfortunately the roots of our legal system is unraveling at a shocking pace.

Apostate's picture

Truth outs!

Anyone can pull a hustle on journalists (who, as a class, are the dumbest fucks in the world), but to do so on an old hand like Simmons is quite a trick.

For reference, Cantarell currently produces 536,617 bpd.

This leak is almost 20% of a Cantarell. 

trav7777's picture

Just to pound the meme, at peak a few years ago, Cantarell produced over 2mbpd.  There's yer Peak Oil right there, and why BP is even going to the trouble at 23000'

doublethink's picture


Uh Oh


Even if Invest 92-L does not develop, surface pressures in the Caribbean will fall this week and the western Caribbean may be an area to really watch later this week. The European model has been very consistent in forecasting the development of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean as early as Thursday or Friday.


I need more asshats's picture

Thank you for this info ZH.

The amount of toxic disbursement has been understated also. Gulf residents should not consume tap water for the foreseeable future. You cannot boil the toxicity out of the tap water either so use care when preparing meals.

AssFire's picture

This is complete BS, fear mongering at its worst. It requires a number of things to happen that just are not probable.. Sea canyons have not collapsed on any well heads causing destruction ANYWHERE. Publishing this here discounts the reliability of other stories.

Gully Foyle's picture


I knew BP was paying for security, so you are what the Cyber wing? Or are you a BIGOV boy? Sometimes the propaganda is hard to source.

Screwloose's picture

Agreed; the crucial words are "If the BOP and wellhead are completely removed."  They haven't been.

The BOP is actually doing almost all it's job.  The oil is issuing through a gap only half an inch wide - although it is constantly eroding - so this is far from an "open flow" well as there is a 2,000lbf/sq/in [near 50%] pressure drop across the BOP.  [Source;]

BP's initial estimate may not have been far from the truth - then.  The MSM are falling over themselves trying to find the biggest guess out there - but there are few hard facts yet known and the invented ones are not really helping quell the paranoia.

bingaling's picture

Bullshit . - There has never been a well built so structurely unsound . The well is damaged beneath the surface and as the well head gets sandblasted away day after day we come to the point of no return where the entire resevoir will come into the Gulf. The fact is the MSM has been forced to report due to sites like this which release the truth . People are now going elsewhere when the the situation being reported does not reflect the reality of it .

"so this is far from an "open flow" well as there is a 2,000lbf/sq/in [near 50%] pressure drop across the BOP.  [Source;]"


The OILDRUM>COM had this to say "the overall flow was estimated to be perhaps 12,000 bd. Once the broken part of the riser was removed and a cap placed over the well, a significant portion of the escaping oil was captured and could then be measured as it flowed into the surface vessel recovering it. Those values are currently at around 15,500 bd. BP is currently planning on additional capture this week of up to another 10,000 bd, and preparing for a worst case scenario with a flow rate of 80,000 bd. These numbers vary a lot, and yet they could all be correct."


Screwloose's picture


Precisely.  All, or any, quoted numbers could be correct at any point in time - there is currently no way to know which, so what good is all the wild and unsubstantiated speculation doing?

Why should all the reservoir come into the Gulf?  Even if the relief wells fail; there's nothing to stop them parking four production platforms on top of it and sucking the whole thing dry through 100 wells.  It would take time, but it's only speeding up what was going to happen anyway.

bingaling's picture

what good is the speculation doing ? Bp originally claimed 1000 BPD !!!! what good did that do? let me rephrase that What kind of harm did that cause ? Isn't it best to assume the worst in a scenario like this when you are dealing with a highly populated area ? As for them parking 4 prod platforms there ,they couldn't get it right the first 2 times what makes you think any other attempt will be a success ?

As to why the resevoir will soon all be in the gulf if the relief wells arent drilled in time a friend emailed me this a week ago- tilt seems to be now occuring :

Contrary to what most of us would think as logical to stop the oil mess, actually opening up the gushing well and making it gush more became direction BP took after confirming that there was a leak. In fact if you note their actions, that should become clear. They have shifted from stopping or restricting the gusher to opening it up and catching it. This only makes sense if they want to relieve pressure at the leak hidden down below the seabed.....and that sort of leak is one of the most dangerous and potentially damaging kind of leak there could be. It is also inaccessible which compounds our problems. There is no way to stop that leak from above, all they can do is relieve the pressure on it and the only way to do that right now is to open up the nozzle above and gush more oil into the gulf and hopefully catch it, which they have done, they just neglected to tell us why, gee thanks.

A down hole leak is dangerous and damaging for several reasons.
There will be erosion throughout the entire beat up, beat on and beat down remainder of the "system" including that inaccessible leak. The same erosion I spoke about in the first post is still present and has never stopped, cannot be stopped, is impossible to stop and will always be present in and acting on anything that is left which has crude oil "Product" rushing through it. There are abrasives still present, swirling flow will create hot spots of wear and this erosion is relentless and will always be present until eventually it wears away enough material to break it's way out. It will slowly eat the bop away especially at the now pinched off riser head and it will flow more and more. Perhaps BP can outrun or keep up with that out flow with various suckage methods for a period of time, but eventually the well will win that race, just how long that race will be? one really knows....However now?...there are other problems that a down hole leak will and must produce that will compound this already bad situation.

This down hole leak will undermine the foundation of the seabed in and around the well area. It also weakens the only thing holding up the massive Blow Out Preventer's immense bulk of 450 tons. In fact?...we are beginning to the results of the well's total integrity beginning to fail due to the undermining being caused by the leaking well bore.

The first layer of the sea floor in the gulf is mostly lose material of sand and silt. It doesn't hold up anything and isn't meant to, what holds the entire subsea system of the Bop in place is the well itself. The very large steel connectors of the initial well head "spud" stabbed in to the sea floor. The Bop literally sits on top of the pipe and never touches the sea bed, it wouldn't do anything in way of support if it did. After several tens of feet the seabed does begin to support the well connection laterally (side to side) you couldn't put a 450 ton piece of machinery on top of a 100' tall pipe "in the air" and subject it to the side loads caused by the ocean currents and expect it not to bend over...unless that pipe was very much larger than the machine itself, which you all can see it is not. The well's piping in comparison is actually very much smaller than the Blow Out Preventer and strong as it may be, it relies on some support from the seabed to function and not literally fall over...and it is now showing signs of doing just that....falling over.

If you have been watching the live feed cams you may have noticed that some of the ROVs are using an inclinometer...and inclinometer is an instrument that measures "Incline" or tilt. The BOP is not supposed to be tilting...and after the riser clip off operation it has begun to...

This is not the only problem that occurs due to erosion of the outer area of the well casings. The way a well casing assembly functions it that it is an assembly of different sized "tubes" that decrease in size as they go down. These tubes have a connection to each other that is not unlike a click or snap together locking action. After a certain length is assembled they are cemented around the ouside to the earth that the more rough drill hole is bored through in the well making process. A very well put together and simply explained process of "How to drill a deep water oil well" is available here:

The well bore casings rely on the support that is created by the cementing phase of well construction. Just like if you have many hands holding a pipe up you could put some weight on the top and the many hands could hold the pipe and the weight on top easily...but if there were no hands gripping and holding the pipe?...all the weight must be held up by the pipe alone. The series of connections between the sections of casings are not designed to hold up the immense weight of the BOP without all the "hands" that the cementing provides and they will eventually buckle and fail when stressed beyond their design limits.

These are clear and present dangers to the battered subsea safety structure (bop and lmrp) which is the only loose cork on this well we have left. The immediate (first 1,000 feet) of well structure that remains is now also undoubtedly compromised. bad as that is? is far from the only possible problems with this very problematic well. There were ongoing troubles with the entire process during the drilling of this well. There were also many comprises made by BP IMO which may have resulted in an overall weakened structure of the entire well system all the way to the bottom plug which is over 12,000 feet deep. Problems with the cementing procedure which was done by Haliburton and was deemed as “was against our best practices.” by a Haliburton employee on April 1st weeks before the well blew out. There is much more and I won't go into detail right now concerning the lower end of the well and the troubles encountered during the whole creation of this well and earlier "Well control" situations that were revieled in various internal BP e-mails. I will add several links to those documents and quotes from them below and for now, address the issues concerning the upper portion of the well and the region of the sea floor.

What is likely to happen now?

Well...none of what is likely to happen is good, in's about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.

Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.

All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the worst things you can think of" The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying I said...all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more. There isn't any "cap dome" or any other suck fixer device on earth that exists or could be built that will stop it from gushing out and doing more and more damage to the gulf. While at the same time also doing more damage to the well, making the chance of halting it with a kill from the bottom up less and less likely to work, which as it stands now? the only real chance we have left to stop it all.

It's a race now...a race to drill the relief wells and take our last chance at killing this monster before the whole weakened, wore out, blown out, leaking and failing system gives up it's last gasp in a horrific crescendo.

We are not even 2 months into it, barely half way by even optimistic estimates. The damage done by the leaked oil now is virtually immeasurable already and it will not get better, it can only get worse. No matter how much they can collect, there will still be thousands and thousands of gallons leaking out every minute, every hour of every day. We have 2 months left before the relief wells are even near in position and set up to take a kill shot and that is being optimistic as I said.

Over the next 2 months the mechanical situation also cannot improve, it can only get worse, getting better is an impossibility. While they may make some gains on collecting the leaked oil, the structural situation cannot heal itself. It will continue to erode and flow out more oil and eventually the inevitable collapse which cannot be stopped will happen. It is only a simple matter of who can "get there first" or the well.

We can only hope the race against that eventuality is one we can win, but my assessment I am sad to say is that we will not.

The system will collapse or fail substantially before we reach the finish line ahead of the well and the worst is yet to come.

Sorry to bring you that news, I know it is grim, but that is the way I see it....I sincerely hope I am wrong.

We need to prepare for the possibility of this blow out sending more oil into the gulf per week then what we already have now, because that is what a collapse of the system will cause. All the collection efforts that have captured oil will be erased in short order. The magnitude of this disaster will increase exponentially by the time we can do anything to halt it and our odds of actually even being able to halt it will go down.

The magnitude and impact of this disaster will eclipse anything we have known in our life times if the worst or even near worst happens...

We are seeing the puny forces of man vs the awesome forces of nature.
We are going to need some luck and a lot of effort to win...
and if nature decides we ought to lose, we will....




AssFire's picture

Taperer casings from 24 at top  to 9-5/8" at bottom 10000 ft beneath the seabed. I have ststed it once, but I will again. The leak at 1000 ft beneath the seafloor is only pressurized by the pressure required to push the remaining 1000 ft. Now the velocity is much lower at that section because the area goes up by the square- bernoulli effects are minimal.

I wish you copy & pasting financial gurus would listen to someone like me with 40 years of experience in this business. You will feel stupid enough when the relief wells are completed and it is plugged according to plan.. Jeez, I keep my mouth shut in areas I know nothing time for some of you to do the same.

Kali's picture

And I, also from that profession, for decades, pronounce you a corporate tool.  They cannot stop it.  You are an AssFire.  Total bullshit blowing out your hole.  It is fractured.  The leakage is not just coming from the well.  I know this from contacts I still have at my former employer, who are still working at BP.  They don't know what to do and the relief wells won't work.

AssFire's picture

One relief well and the original well casing will do the venting, the 2nd relief well will do the plugging beneath the 1000 ft rupture point will be done by the 2nd relief well. As mentioned this is all being fed by 9-5/8" diameter and created 2300 psi venting through the existing bore- this pressure will be at least halved and the weight of the heavy mud will do its job. BP employes many people' I'm guessing you friend at BP is maybe a low level employee cause it is quite simple. It has been done this way for over 100 years. I like your posts, but you are not qualified to speak on every topic- on this you are as off base as Leo.

Augustus's picture

My guess is that your former employer is part of the BP food supply chain, not the petroleum engineering or drilling sections.  There is no evidence of fracture or evidence of oil being produced from some other location than the top of the well.

bingaling's picture

okay assfire I will keep my mouth shut from here on in - lets say we make a bet If I am right you take off that top in your avatar ,If I am wrong I will take the bag off my head .

Cursive's picture

okay assfire I will keep my mouth shut from here on in - lets say we make a bet If I am right you take off that top in your avatar ,If I am wrong I will take the bag off my head .

I am down with this plan!  This is compromise I can believe in!

Screwloose's picture

This repeated reference to BP[?] initially claiming it was only 1000bpd - has anyone an authoritative, dated, source?

The "e-mail from a friend" is interesting and plausible; but it's essentially yet another speculative construction that does not add to the hard facts in the public domain.

Further stressing those actually and potentially affected, by promulgating wild and doom-laden predictions that may - or may not - happen is cruel in the extreme.


Augustus's picture

The original flow estimates were given by the Coast Guard.  Several interviews ago Allen mentioned that the original estimates were not from BP.  But now everyone knows that the CG would be much better at managing the situation and the plugging while blameing BP for the incorrect estimates.  It is simply bullshit from people who are not able to read.

tom a taxpayer's picture

bingaling - For Your Information. That long material you posted from your friend's email are direct quotes of comments posted by Oil Drum reader dougr June 13, 2010 3:17am.

Augustus's picture

It is your lack of compreshension that is generating the Bullshit.

The broken part of the riser was replaced several weeks after the explosion and blowout.  The rate had increased BEFORE the riser was removed.  It increased further after the riser was removed.

Augustus's picture

The BOP is attached to the 20" casing, not to the drive pipe that is set in the mud.  There is 16" inside the 20".  both are cemented to the formations for several thousand feet.  The idea that this well will have the casing jacked out of the hole, as proposed by Simmons, is just nonsense.  That is why he is no longer attached in any way to Simmons & Co.

Dont Taze Me Bro's picture

AssFire is right. The fear mongering on this threat is annoying.

And what's up with all pseudo oil experts at ZH now? One oil rig accident and ya'll switch from being financial geniuses to oil experts? Gimme a freaking break.


benb's picture

“It is stunning to discover that a major multi-national corporation could be so daring as to lie to shareholders, Congress and taxpayers. The next question that Congress may want to look into is why the Obama administration swallowed BP's lies hook line and…”

I don’t think the Obama regime swallowed the lies but rather went along with them. This ‘accident’ (IMO) is a coordinated effort by the globalists along with their minions at the highest levels of the Federal Government to take down the U.S.


wafflehead's picture

this company should be fined a billion just for making such a ridiculous comment of 5000/barrels a day.

I need more asshats's picture

If Obama had any balls he should have sent a drone to sink that fuckers sailboat yesterday.

A steel wedge shaped projectile could have been explained as space debris broken free from a satellite.

Pompous cock sucker. Not Obama, Hayward. Well maybe both come to think of it.