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The Internet Sells No Hope... Yet
No downward inflection points on the horizon in this set of primary data (here and here). Then again, we did not yet run it through the CNBC filter.
hat tip Evan
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The state unemployment website in CT gets busier every week.. God help you if you try to file first thing sunday morning, it can take two days until you finally get thru just to fill in two short forms.
PS: LOL thanks Obama for extending and extending UI bennies, and that $2400 tax deduction for 2009 as well.. this is the greatest time ever to be unemployed in America!
And Greater Hartford, CT is #5 in the country for job availability according to the most recent survey -- fucking green shoots growing right out of our asses here. If you go anywhere near Greenwich, Stamford, Bridgeport and up to New Haven though there's nothing. Fairfield County, CT is going to be in hurt box for some time.
Every morning i do my day laborer count as i head to work. Friday there were 46 men waiting for a days work, ie landscaping, wood chopping/stacking....fence painting...whatever...
things are bleak, and i this doesn't even count the ones that went back to mexico
things are worse than bad
good thing the govt' is raising taxes
I JUST TOOK A GREEN SHOOT. I DON'T KNOW WHAT I ATE BUT SOMETHING JUST DID IT TO ME. I HAVE BEEN HAVING SO MUCH TROUBLE PASSING STIMULUS LATELY.
Did you have some Kudlow Coke? What a #$)&@#$.
Who do you dislike (nice word, I can think of more appropriate though) more Kudlow the Cokehead or Cramer the Clownass? Shall we take a poll?
You mean between an ignorant biased senile right wing ahole or a self-serving pompus conflicted lying schmuck? There are no bad choices.
I'm tellin yah, this bear ain't over until Cramer's show is pulled from the air.
TD, dennis kneale will find a way to show that this proves that the recession has ended. Of course it may be that the depression has started......
Big Picture blog had 2 very simple charts on state w/h taxes. Nice q2 (off 20%).
With state budget gaps like this, plus the federal budget gap (grand canyon) when and if the economy stages minor growth it isn't going to be taxed away to merely fill (partially ) these gaps.
Second question, rosie was talking yesterday about the U.S devaluing the dollar because really it is the last thing they can do. How in the world do they plan on selling $2T of debt when the buyer is looking @ a 10%-20% loss once the print is up?
Confusion rules the day....
I think that's a really good point about the T bills, I was wondering the same after I read Rosie yesterday. Why would anyone ever buy that amount of Ts knowing that the US is going to try to inflate their way out of this? I would imagine that once people recognize this, the T auctions would become a disaster, but all of that is in a rational world and Bernanke is expanding the Fed balance sheet with Ts at an incredible rate. Where can it all end?
DK is a tool
The Chinese are still buying our paper. They're leveraging against dollar/Treasury reserves to fund their stimulus. They need that 8% GDP growth.
I want to put 'three + five = 35' but I just know I will flunk the test.
remember Tyler, EVERY data point contains good news, hope, and change!--
"Of all the statistics pouring into the White House every day, top economic adviser Larry Summers highlighted one Friday to make his case that the economic free-fall has ended.
The number of people searching for the term “economic depression” on Google is down to normal levels, Summers said. "
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/25083.html
when the definitive history of the Fall of the American Empire is written (in about 60 years, by Chinese-made Terminator robots) Lawrence Summers will feature as prominently as Dick Cheney.
The recession has ended. GDP growth can be zero. That's a flat line. Keep in mind that when your growth is flat, the worst is both behind you and ahead of you. The stimulus money will get eaten up by two things: state government retrenching via tax increases and spending cuts and by oil, because even GS can't bury dinosaurs. Oil will kill any attempt to achieve true REAL growth. The state government shrinkage will absorb the stimulus. Result, flat line. Headline: we have bottomed.
As long as GDP growth lags growth in the population, the US will still continue to net out a less productive society. The quality of life for the US is on a very slow decent downward for a long time.
The american consumer is addicted to debt. There is no budgeting at the personal level, the family level, state or even federal level. What will curb consumption will be BKs. Until BK, keep spending, keep borrowing. It's an addiction, a sickness.
For some fun with Google Insights, set your filter to U.S., then put in "bug out".
Then put in "reloading". Compare the two for a good laugh.
lagging indicater....well that is what has been drilled into the minds of retail investors (of course from conflicted "investment advisors"
but let me tell you this
i have taken a massive MASSIVE beating this week, so much so, that i now spend my free time searching for any solace, any comfort i can that the market will start its retreat in fast order....
or i my account will be wiped clean at waterhouse....
then i go home, game over
i really think i am depressed and have an ulcer
i cant be alone? am i?
yes, i myself are short on massive leverage and have been handed my head in a hand basket this week
and i was just starting to get near even last week, though not plus yet
this is so so so disheartening, but everything i read says SNP 1000-1200
can this really be so?
how?
so many job losses
so much bk
housing is dead
i DO NOT GET IT
but i am getting creamed
(btw, goldman will never be investigated, the tenticles run deep, so why bother?)
"""...but everything i read says SNP 1000-1200 can this really be so?"
About the highest that I have seen comes from some of the EW crowd, showing a peak P2 of around 1013 or so, probably in the mid to late August range.
Not that my opinion (wag/swag, take your choice!) is any better or worse, there are simply way TOO MANY folks calling for this up market into end of summer and "collapse" in late summer/early autumn.....to me it is the old "when something is so obvious in the market, people are obviously wrong"
I still think the rug gets pulled earlier. I know one thing for me is that I will not go long at any point and will hold cash whenever I clear my short postions. I cleared last friday (phew!) and was all cash until thursday and took a small short position (broad market) when spx crossed 930. good luck.
yes, YES...what i was reading was the EW guys, a bunch of them are all saying 1000+....
and YOU ARE SO RIGHT....the masses have to be wrong, just like the head and shoulders debacle....damn, i thought we had them with that....but everyone "saw it" so it cant be true
been sheeting my pants all day....
i dont want the mkt to open monday
i guess this is the part where I suggest "patience".
Seriously, I've learned from over 30 years in the financial biz that patience really is virtuous.....unless you decide that your internal thinking was incorrect on your entry point or some external factor(s) suggest a change, be patient. To my way of thinking, that is the beauty of volatile markets; the up, down, up, down is pretty much a guarantee and therein lies the money to be made for the retail trader. good luck to you.
But i have just been betting on down since April 25th(?). The ride up is relentless and at work i get in a pissy mood cause of it. I know i have a "gamblvesting" problem. Thanks for the ear though. Much appreciated.
Stand tall i loaded up big time friday at the close on SDS. The fall will begin on Monday.
yeah until 3:30 pm then phat phinger buying commences!
expect more personal BKs from the shorts cause the f'n mkt is broken
Tyler, the CAPTCHA asked
four + [ ] = fourteen
i put in "teen" and it didn't work
please fix
The correct answer was "Miley Ray Cyrus." Get it together.
Hey TD, what happened with the project to exposure the insider corruption where people would email you all the evidence, was anything put together and forwarded to anyone?
Do you have an update for the pissed off masses?
thanks in advance
E
getting constant data and processing. the situation is fluid to say the least.
i wish i could send you some myself, but if i get canned, well, i am outa medical benefits which my wife is dependent on
(that's also why i never post from work, ever, the new bonus where i work is having a job)
Look at the search trend for "bankruptcy lawyers" and tell me if you see any seeds, let alone shoots...
http://www.google.com/trends?q=bankruptcy+lawyers&geo=usa&sa=N
oil does not come from dinasaurs.
so true and oil is a renewable resource....i
shit you not....the dinasaur theory is for
dinasaurs....
Oil is the new green energy.
the Fed and banks use govt money to support the market, cause if they don't and the markets tank then 401ks go to 101ks
so, instead the Fed (my order might be off, but the instances are not)
1. The President goes on TV and says "Now is the time to buy stocks."
2. Bernanke goes on TV and says "there are green shoots"
3. (Fed tells) each bank (to) pre-announce(s), remember last quarter...WFC did it on day one, popping the mkt, they the next bank on the next day, then the next, etc
4. they play up the 'second derivative' crap....my god, how is this even believed....second derivative?? things are STILL GETTING worse, but its ok if we dont get worse at a 20% rate, but only 5%, my god, how did this even get traction
5. stress tests 'rigged', need i say more
6. stress test results, delayed...while they announce bank x, y, z are passing
7. banks announce one by one they are repaying the tarp...See pt 3, this is so Fed orchestrated...
7.5 Marla joins to even the odds
8. SPY buying to prop mkt at end of day, how many days in a row? Tyler?
9. News spins lies...."Krugman says worst is behind us"...later to be followed by "Roubini capitulates!"
10. bad news ignored. YES IGNORED (not by the market but by the press)...examples.....what was shown 84 times on CNBC...INTL beat? or Nokia warning? or DELL warning? oh it was chip specific, oh really...then what about Xilinx warning?
11. Goldman.....dont even get me started'
12/13/14....anyone else want to add or edit? \
did i miss anything?
The point is the market is orchestrated up because the big brother is trying to instill confidence. They feel justified to lie, cheat, swindle to achieve this. I bet they gave GS $20B and said, "Make the market go up, its for the good of the people. If you lose, we will reimburse you." In the end, we are all f'd.
I think it was the other way around. I think that Goldman went to the Fed and said that they can "help". Then of course it became a heads Goldman won, tails everyone else lost.
They are one in the same, so does it matter. I was obviously blind that "the fix was in" to save the banks at all costs. fighting the trend was a fools game and i paid dearly for it.
TD, sorry for the double post. i tried (on the second) to add carriage returns, so my list will list 1 through 10 and be easier to read, but it doesnt work
how can i fix.
thanks in advance
E
I voted for the loser. I wish more people did. BO is a liar.
"I will not raise taxes...."
I am beside myself at night now. Confounded by the relentless market moves up. I even turn to Zero Hedge, Pragcap, Denninger, etc (in that order) for my medicine. I read and read hoping to feel better. When I turn off the machine at night to go to bed my wife asked what I was doing online at night (she thinks I am having an affair or i am looking at porn). Should I tell her i am losing all our money?
Ask her to watch the episode of South Park that TD posted earlier today and tell her softly over a wine session... AND IT's GONE !
Oh so innocent fixes.
Employers can override 401Ks.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Employers-Can-Override-Your-usnews-4538739...
AND... It's Gone.
"and.......it's gone"....priceless!!!
MORE GOOD NEWS!
JULY 18, 2009 Philadelphia Halts Payments in Crunch
Article Video Comments (26) more in Politics »
BY PETER LOFTUS
PHILADELPHIA -- The government of the nation's sixth most-populous city has stopped paying its vendors and suppliers, citing a cash crisis...................
Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter on Friday blamed the drastic move on the failure of the Pennsylvania legislature to act on his request for authorization to raise the city sales tax and change the formula for the city's contribution to its employee pension plan. Mr. Nutter said these items are necessary to help close a projected city budget deficit of $1.4.......................
Is this good for say, 200 pts on the SPY?
Tyler, i think you need to sign up The Wall Street Pro as a star contributor.......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7ZN2F_7K7U
LOVE IT _ This time he looks really mad.
negotiations are at a sensitive stage but i am sure readers will be happy with the outcome.
no bats in fight club
TD, do not forget that in the movie you sold soap (slow me, i just got the metaphor today), so you are attempting to "clense" the system here?
i had a bbq last week. four couples came over. 3 of the husbands are outa work (one IT guy, 14 mths, another IT guy 8 months, the other was in building management (same firm for 20 years). The first IT guy joined a money management firm, on commission, no salary, and so far no work, the other IT guy cant find a lick of work, so he day trades his IRAs (nice huh) and the other is Mr Mom. and now another friend of mine is outa work in 2 weeks at HP (he is in IT, and had to train his overseas Indian replacement, how nice huh?) can you believe he turned down a goodbye lunch from his manager?? THINGS SUCK OUT THERE, DO NOT LET ANYONE TELL YOU IT DOESN'T
the only difference between me and him is that i am mad
It feels like I am reading my own thought bubbles on this thread.
PRICELESS "Then again, we did not yet run it through the CNBC filter. "
lizzy, dat you?
good news - market flat today - WUHOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SHUT UP, goldman might here you and "due to trading imbalances will open the market for 15 minutes today from 7:44 pm to 7:59 pm. Do NOT bet against it.
BEARS UNITE!
Did you notice with the CAPTCHA you don't get posts from M&A specialists, because 1+1 doesn't equal 3. Yes I know, it was a bad joke. BUT IT IS TRUE!
Tyler,
Is the data correct? I mean, first off the map is not to scale. Makes me think the rest can be bogus too? Alaska is way bigger.
I did a web search on corruption. I mean Goldman Sachs. Charts and data were identical.
Probably would have more of an effect if the map was in shades of Red. This looks more like a winter temperature map.
BK SmeeKay. Borrow, spend, file, cleans, rinse, repeat. Consumption continues. The real problem is UNIONS, they are the reason why taxes are increasing in every sector, state and federal. No solution.
Disregard the Michigan Sentiment, Larry Summers new leading indicator, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/25083.html
what a f'n joke, are they out of magic bullets?
The ECRI is pounding the table on the recession ending this summer (it may have already). And they are looking for a strong recovery due to the deep downturn.
http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/economy/10494063.html
No worries, right?
a more emphatic statement about the recession being over. http://www.scribd.com/doc/17448517/Recession-Is-Over
try 'pawn shop'
http://www.google.com/trends?q=pawn+shop&ctab=0&geo=us&geor=all&date=all&sort=0