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Intraday Divergence Update: At Wides

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The 10 Year is now back to almost the lowest levels since market open, even as stocks are at their highs. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, bonds are completely not buying the stock rally, and the fact that we have in fact seen a rush of money into bonds since 10am, when the 10 Year peaked at 2.940%, only to be down to 2.9174% currently is yet another indication that nothing makes sense any longer, and that stocks are not completely disjointed from a capital flow reality, in which just one marginal buyer/printer magically has the power to set any price desired.

And another snapshot of irrationality in action:

 

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Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:01 | 484093 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

looks similar to june 15; had a trend BO near 1090 w big candle, fews days sideways, spike to 1130 and reverse

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:08 | 484097 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Bonds are always right.  But neither is a buy either. I wouldnt sell the Bonds for the Armageddon Trade.. who knows what leurks out there?

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:05 | 484099 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

If we close above 1090 it's not going to make a lot of difference in the short term. Up volume is running 10-1 over down volume.

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:08 | 484108 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

may not like it or understand it, but one cant ignore the trend break;

SSO and SPY vol is very low however

what happened to those big put buyers yesterday - shoulda waited til today - I'm looking

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:08 | 484111 Midasfinancas
Midasfinancas's picture

This is totally insane. Stress tests here in Europe? Fuck them. Let BCE stops giving money to banks and they don´t survive? This is the true stress test... sick and tired of lies.

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:26 | 484150 jbc77
jbc77's picture

Man, you sound like me. Fuck them is right and yeah, I'm fucking sick of these lies as well.

Heres the thing, none of us can ever remember a time when the market behaved like this. Ramping on total shit news. Obviously, something is not right. The markets have been taken over. I'm starting to get the strange feeling that the Obama admin mandated to whom ever: don't let these markets fall and that mandate is being carried out.

Question is, what stops these bastards? What stops these manipulative games? Eventually, who ever is doing this is going to make a misatke. Humans do. When this fucker cracks it should blow right out to the downside.

Can they keep doing this forever?

 

 

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 16:02 | 484236 BobWatNorCal
BobWatNorCal's picture

"Can they keep doing this forever?"
Well, duh.
Probably, and at least until they've spent all our (and our children's) money.

"But always—do not forget this Winston—always there will be the intoxication of power, constantly increasing and constantly growing subtler. Always, at every moment, there will be the thrill of victory, the sensation of trampling on an enemy who is helpless. If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face—forever."

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 16:10 | 484254 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

Obama's poll numbers are bad, real bad. It's 3 months till the November elections. You know they are going to try like hell to jam this market higher.

 

Then they can say look folks things are getting better just look at the Dow. Mark my words, I saw the same thing in 2006 when the Republicans help all the power. The jammed the market up and the Republicans still lost. Americaans are not fooled so eay anymore after two bubbles and two market crashes in the past decade.

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:09 | 484112 DUNTHAT
DUNTHAT's picture

could the feds be running up the es/spx/spy's to give some room for a major fall after the results of europe's stress test/manipulation are revealed??

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:14 | 484123 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

doubt it; we already know the results will be fabulous

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:29 | 484154 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

As I watched the orders flow in today the thought crossed my mind. I wouldn't be suprprised. The media loves to talk the futures up in the AM so this this is a simple way for the Fed to manipulate the market. I mean seriously, ALMOST NO VOLUME! Money is now flowing out of stocks that had major volume run ups early in AM trading. Something here is bullshit. 

Should I sell my ES now or hope for some sort of recovery before midnight? I shorted it on the advice of oil traders blog and like a fool in a rush I didn't put a stop loss so now I'm fucked. I just wanna get some of that money back... Any suggestions? I'm fairly new to futures. I understand them but I haven't watched or traded them enough to get a feel for how they move. So if anyone wants to give me a tip I'm all ears!

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:48 | 484197 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Only tip I can give ya is to never punt naked.

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 16:12 | 484262 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

well the divergence play wasn't there. 

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:59 | 484226 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

Yes Eric your correct, the index futures float higher overnight simply by pulling the offers the tap it with a one lot. I have sat up and watched this. Your soon learn how rigged the index futures are.

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 16:11 | 484260 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

damn. I can see what u mean about them rigged. I've been watching the ES all day long. I can't believe the bullshit. But it seems to be pulling back. I guess what I was wondering is before the index futures float higher overnight, do they often pull back after the market closes? Like maybe pull back for the first few hours of Asian market trading and then move back up? 

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:16 | 484120 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

politicans have decided to save the TBTF institutions at all costs even while rome burns. 

have to wonder if ben was not upset at the market's reaction to his testimony yesterday and, he wasnt about to allow a repeat;

we have a) a booming recovery, and b) unusual uncertainty. LOL; anyone trys that in the real world and they would be tomatoed

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:24 | 484142 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Looks like they are trying a final ramp into the market close. Must be really bad news coming down the pike for this level of manipulation.

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 23:27 | 484866 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Yep, always a manipu-rally to keep us above the "oh-Fak-n-crimony" level. We get these ridiculous rallies on fantasy, to be taking down slightly on really bad news - and call the whole thing a wash... Until we can weigh what's really going on, the brainwash continues. I'm holding some dogs from back in the day - but if they ever turn into the black, I'm out, will invest in family and friends and never look back.

I heard a guest on CNB-Crap say that we know all the bad events on the horizon and that it's ALL PRICED IN, so there's a great chance for UPSIDE surprises... He couldn't say what those might be, by the way. So we have Black Swans vs. Fairy Feathers on Unicorn Whithers.. 

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:39 | 484170 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Did someone just fart?

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:40 | 484174 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

I agree everything is distorted, volume again is very light. But we have 20 minutes left so I'm sure Goldman and JPM are passing 50k block in SPY back and forth to gin up the volume. Gotta make it look real.

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:42 | 484181 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Someone just got nervous. DOW dropped 50 points in a few minutes. Do I hear air seeping out of a balloon? Or is that the BP leak?

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 16:04 | 484238 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

Straight up and straight down, no retracement. This truly sucks big time. Gap up gap down, complete lack of liquidity.

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:41 | 484176 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

The Fed balance sheet will soon start to shrink as the mortgages in their MBS start to refi, and they are FINALLY done with the MBS purchases (4 months after the fact  - great MBS trading, Fed).

Look out below once that money starts getting sucked out of the system.

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:43 | 484183 Catullus
Catullus's picture

This first and last 30 minutes of the day are turning into bullshit. It really does remind me of 2008

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 19:35 | 484661 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

thats funny....i said the same thing to someone today.  Just like july 2008 all over......

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:50 | 484202 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I watched the AUDJPY fall then the SPX go with it.  It was odd once the SPX broke bleow 1090, suddenly I see the AUDJPY get pumped and sure enough the SPX followed a couple of min later.

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:55 | 484215 powersjq
powersjq's picture

All the evidence for market manipulation is circumstantial, but there's a lot of it.  So, IF you could manipulate the market, and IF (just if) you wanted to postpone the inevitable tumble, how might you engineer it?  How about prod the technical traders with violated trend?

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjuly10/stocks-election07-10.html

He's just speculating (as in, imagining constrained by facts), but it's insightful stuff.

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 15:59 | 484229 American Dreams
American Dreams's picture

The AUD/JPY pair has gone batty in the last 20min with truckwide 6 pip sprds.  There is a war going on and the SPYs are only the proxy.  Appearances WILL be kept up at all costs until they are no longer necessary.  Carry on.

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 16:05 | 484242 powersjq
powersjq's picture

AD, any chance you could provide a chart?  Thanks!

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 16:23 | 484273 American Dreams
American Dreams's picture

Didn't screen shot it since I was "working" but will grab it next time.  Volatility remains high in the pair with 30 sec 10 pip moves in either direction being fairly common.  Makes one feel like they just dropped that bar of soap while in the Fed Pen shower.

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 16:00 | 484231 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

That drop into the close was to raise the volume. We sat in a .30% range for 5 hours. Yes folks this market is being run by a few, the NY Fed is the ring leader.

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 16:10 | 484257 unionbroker
unionbroker's picture

it is truly amazing to see what theswe fellows can do when they put their mind to it " don't fight the fed"

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 16:35 | 484316 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

Given that Treasuries are being heavily purchased by the "UK", thereby driving the yields down, are yields giving a false signal?

Fri, 07/23/2010 - 01:02 | 484977 BeerGoggles
BeerGoggles's picture

Normally if you wanted to buy the stock market then 1 contract on the stock market would be 1 x $50 x 1067 = $53,350 So, what people do in the carry trade is borrow $53,350 in yen, convert it to dollars and buy the stocks. So, they would borrow 53,350 x 87yen = 4,641,450 yen. The correlations in the markets are closely linked to AUDJPY and EURJPY. So, If I wanted to hedge by selling the stock market and buying the FX pair would I then convert the 4,641,450 yen into AUD to work out how much to buy? 4,641,450 / 76.5 = AUD60,672 Since 1 lot = 100,000 units, this would be 1 contract on the ES to 0.6 FX lots. Is this calculation correct? Similar principle for bonds above.

Now to complicate things, how do I do the same calculation when wanting to do this on a spread betting platform?

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