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Intraday Market Commentary From Stifel Nicolaus - August 23
From Stifel Nicolaus' Elliot Spar
The opening rally gave way to sellers even after the stock index futures took out Friday’s high. The SOX struggled and the good feeling from “merger-Monday” wore out its welcome. When an opening gap gives back more than half, it doesn’t sit well with traders. The downside move took the NDX futures to just above Friday’s low while the Spoos held 5 above its respective low. We got a bounce which has led to the NYSE a/d to sneak back into positive territory by 200 issues. Many are searching and wondering what the catalyst will be to get the buyers back into the market. Some of the biggest trading rallies have started without any catalyst at all. Once a trend line level is breached or a 50 or 200 day moving average is taken out, it can attract buyers. All of a sudden money managers find themselves lagging and they have to put money to work. The first step to getting this to play out will be the market’s response to this weeks’ economic data. Watch the market’s response to data not just the data itself.
INDEX IN FOCUS
PHLX Semi-Conductor Index SOX 1 324.65 (- 3.25)
So much for Friday’s out performance. This morning SOX failed at Friday’s high and now looks like it wants to test 319 support.
VOLATILITY ALERT
NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index VXN 1 26.21 (+ .45)
A 17 point pop in the NDX futures this morning couldn’t drive the VXN to the downside; an early warning that the rally was suspect.
INTEREST RATE IN THE NEWS
10 Yr. Treasury Yield Index TNX 1 26.12 (- .17)
Many traders continue to look for a top in bonds and a bottom in rates. Technically speaking, if TNX has a key reversal upside day or a close above its 10 day moving average at 26.55, I expect a sell off in the 10 year. Down trend line resistance at 29 would be the best case target without a significant change in economic data.
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Yeh watch the reaction so more smoke mirrors could be used to give one the impression that the bad news is in the market as the manipulators on low vol take up the mkt? Yeh right.
What is this 'market' you speak of?
sounds like a fast money wannabe. i shudder at the thought of anyone aspiring to be joe terranova.
I just saw this on the home page of Yahoo!Finance. I figure whoever wrote it will be reassigned to Yahoo!Travel by the end of the week.
"Individual investors are fed up with the stock market. Burnt by 10 years of negative returns, two crashes, and a current economy mired with high unemployment and lackluster growth, many are throwing in the towel."
It's been very slow day, my guess is people are waiting for the existing home sales number tomorrow.
When people are entertaining false hope, they are always waiting for confirmation their hope isn't hope any more but in fact reality.
For the last 3 or 4 months, all we ever hear about is how important the next economic number is. Until it disappoints. Then it's the next number that becomes important. And then the next number. Until all hope is lost.
We hear all the time how a market is climbing a wall of worry. No one talks about a market declining a wall of worry.
i.e. Prechter's "Slope of Hope."
!
A perfect example of the constant positive bias. Let me re-phrase to construct just as valid a statement.
Just as valid and probably more realistic considering the huge cluster fuck currently playing out world wide.
Ha-ha and Lol Cog,
You are exactly right. I do what you for a living and got my Series7 start with Stifel 25 years ago. Glad for this affirmation of going independent in '89.
Place your bets? Up or down this week and why?
Down because it's the path of least resistance.
Hey! So much for 1070.
Updated S&P500 chart:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Typical sell side long bias nonsense... He's trying to speak like a trader but either doesn't know what he's talking about or isn't allowed to tell the truth. The price action speaks for itself. ES had a micro extension long at the open. Front ran it's 50% level by a tick and hit it's -38.2% level which also happened to be a big 50% retracement level from the mini double top the ES formed back on 8/17 and 8/18. This obviously confirms the downward trend. The immediate target for this retracement should be around 1053...
My questions are:
1. What happens to the USD and the S & P 500 if there is a new middle east war?
2. What happens if China unloads US debt at the same time?
3. What happens if bond bubble bust?
My questions are:
1. What happens to the USD and the S & P 500 if there is a new middle east war?
2. What happens if China unloads US debt at the same time?
3. What happens if bond bubble bust?
Thanks for such a great post and the review, I am totally impressed! Keep stuff like this coming!...
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