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Intraday Market Commentary From Stifel Nicolaus - August 24
Market Commentary from Elliot Spar of Stifel Nicolaus
The 1050 support level on the S&P 500 gave way as sellers reacted to the weaker than expected existing home sales. Take a step back: That break below support lasted for 15 minutes. The averages enjoyed a good bounce which took the NYSE a/d back to only 2 to 1 negative. The Russell 2000 came back and practically filled the gap from the opening. Now, the afternoon playbook. The Russell 2000 is outperforming on the noon time selloff and the volatility indexes, VIX, VXN and RVX are a lot closer to their lows of the session than the highs. For the bulls, we would like to see a close on the S&P 500 comfortably above 1050. On the other hand, if it looks like we are going to close under 1050, it will be all sellers in the last 30 minutes.
VOLATILITY INDEX IN FOCUS
CBOE Volatility Index, VIX 1 26.90 (+ 1.24)
Took out resistance at 28.10 on the poor existing home sales, but that spike was over in 15 minutes. Thus, a false breakout. If the S&P sells off again later today, the bulls do not want to see the VIX back over 27.60.
INDEX IN FOCUS
Russell 2000 Index RUT 2 600.00 (- 2.65)
Held support today at 588-590, which is also the 38.2% retracement of the move off of the March ’09 low.
SPECIAL DIVIDEND OPTION ADJUSTMENT
WCRX – Recently declared a special dividend of 8.50 per share. Options will be adjusted. If you think there is a free lunch, you will be paying for it.
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Thought I missed the shorting-boat today, but now it looks like the Dow will roll up near unchanged. Still flat - but looking for another short entry point.
Be careful out there...
Yep, the boat pulled away from the dock. Hovering above 10,050's on the Dow. Bon Voyage!
Merrill's down in the pits buying this afternoon... just like they did this morning...
We're expecting a rally here to last until next Wednesday.
Odd, my magic 8 ball said next Thursday.
GDP numbers on Friday
k, 330pm come and gone.. down she goes.
no stick saves, no intervention.
gotta look at the bigger picture here. elections are being held soon. people voted "hope and change" before.. when faced with fear.
Not for nothing but what am I missing? Not much lower given the news etc.....Ok, waiting for GDP update, la la la....Perhaps we just wake up one morning and the Bonds are just in the tank, PM's up 20% and all you dippers are hosed. Yeah, that's how it plays out. You just can't sit here and wait.
GTFOOD (get the f out of Dodge)
Things are a little too orderly.
It's still August. Low volume, no mass panic reporting on business channels.
Drudge doesn't have the bleeding DOW chart up yet.
...as in the PPT threw some oil on the water...
I still think the 'game' is about the inflection on the SPX 200 day moving average....just look at it, it's an epic struggle, 200 day still just barely wriggling upwards...when it inflects down for real it's Katie bar the door.
Good point but it'll have to be more than a technical infraction to really end all this nonsense. Remember Flash Crash got fixed.
Fixed?!? That will only happen when algos make up <20% of trading activity.
Fixed, meaning reversed. Otherwise, the end would have already occurred and you would have reached your <20% target. Naturally, algos is big part of problem and will remain that way until.......
Fixed as in the time we duct taped cotton balls to a friends road rashed hands due to not having any bandages. Worked well until it came time to clean it out properly to heal.
Epic battle here at EOD to keep it above 1052
they might save the best for AH.. when nobody is watching.
Every major market in the world (excluding Asia) has closed down more than 1% and at least 1.25% today. S&P closed down below 1052.
Thanks for such a great post and the review, I am totally impressed! Keep stuff like this coming!...
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