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Intraday Market Commentary From Stifel Nicolaus - September 13
From Stifel Nicolaus' Elliot Spar
Those pundits that were telling us that Sept was going to be the worse month are now hiding under a rock. Must be the Rock of Gibraltar to cover that crowd. Those money managers that have been sidelined and have underperformed during a 7% move in the S&P may be a factor fueling the upside for the last couple of days. However, now that the worst acting groups, the financials and Semis have popped today, one has to wonder if the party is almost over. Bottom-line: I would consider taking profits and or hedging extended names. As good as you feel now about the market, it’s probably just the opposite about how you felt two weeks ago when it looked like 1040 on the S&P was going to fail. Emotions can be difficult to reign in.
INDEX IN FOCUS
PHLX Semi-Conductor Index
SOX 1 327.34 (+ 10.79)
Finally, a pop in the worst acting sector in the Nasdaq. Before you start thinking that the coast is clear, the last time the Nasdaq was at 2277 on Aug. 10, the SOX was at 344, over 5% above its current level.
VOLATILITY IN THE NEWS
CBOE Volatility Index
VIX 1 21.73 (- .26)
Broke below the Aug. 9th low at 21.36. However, at noon time it has moved back over that level. A close today with only a small decline in the VIX should dampen bullish enthusiasm for stocks in the very short-term.
OPTION BITS & PIECES
Expiration Reminder
VIX Sept. Options – last time to trade is tomorrow, Positions left open settle on Wednesday’s opening for cash.
Full report pdf.
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I don't think it's time to "take profits" just yet. There's some more upward drift left in the S&P. If we break out here, which it's beginning to appear, I would be pretty secure in holding until 1175 area. Then it's time to "take profits" IMO.
you gotta a lot more faith in Ben, and all the boobs running the banks than i do, Harry. We haven't had one 24 hour stretch without a crises getting revealed and then quickly papered over.....one of these mudballs is going to stick to the wall.
if you stay on this horse, use tight, tight stops.
and pray there's enough liquidity to get out...
Yes, I have very tight stops in place here. Been riding AAPL on this wave as well. If that closes above 267 area today, it may just run to challenge the all time highs. Been trailing it with stops since 240.
Difficult to fight these guys right now. I agree one of the mudballs will stick...eventually.
be careful Harry, they have tried to pump the AUD/JPY all day and have not managed to move the needle much there.....even with the 11AM pumporama.
What good are stops when all of the action has been in after-hours trading???
With Retails sales, Philly Fed and Empire State manufacturing reports, and OpEx week it might be a good time to buy the puts here with VIX so low.
For what it is worth - I agree. I think this week will have a negative bias.
It'll be interesting to see if we get a 3:30 pump or dump. Not much interest so far in keeping the market at the highs...low volume...
CNBC kept repeating over and over Sept. is the worst month for stocks. They are a great tell. The more they said it was a terrible month for stocks you knew that Traders were being set up. So everyone shorts and the market goes up 5.5%. Shorts got crushed.
Nothing new. CNBC loves to set up investors to fail. Watch what they say and do the opposite. Same with Cramer. With Cramer wait 3 dayd for the hipe to settle and take the opposite position.
CNBC isn't setting anyone up because no one watches them any more. the ratings are in the toilet. had someone the other day who refused to buy time there as "no one watches that or believes it any more".....
That I am happy to hear. Switched to bloomberg years ago.
If you want to use CNBC as a contra-indicator, then fine. But they have no ability to set up real traders. They can set up retail traders, but by all accounts average Joe has left the market. I doubt if the algos parse the CNBC commentary :-) Quote stuffing is easier (and more profitable) than natural language processing.
<removed double posting>
CNBS has pumped the " initial claims coming in below 450K is bullish" garbage.
yeah, of course they didn't bother to tell anyone that nine states -- including CA -- didn't report, and if they had......we would have been well over 500K more than likely.
yeah, of course they didn't bother to tell anyone that nine states -- including CA -- didn't report, and if they had......we would have been well over 500K more than likely.
450k is such a bad number and they naively thing anything under it is "good". In every other recession claims come in around 350k or so. What a bunch of spivs.
AND, of course, that whole 'volume thingy' is in the shitter.
Anyone left playing this game is simply gambling. Honest to Christ, just bet on the NFL and have some fun. Why even bother with this garbage?
i can smell a crash coming
Everybody knows that quote stuffing is allowed if you're long,
Of course Ms. Schapiro has orders to investigate shorts who try the same thing...
Tomorrow the SPX is about to make a 3rd attemp at the 1130 resistance.
Thank u, i found this for a long time.
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