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Intraday Market Observations: Dollar-Stock Dislocation; Equities Following Bond Yields
An anemic day in the markets is punctuated by a large spike in crude
prices, which despite near record low refinery utilizations, a draw
down in reserves has caused the NYMEX speculators to believe that
Goldman will finally be proven right with their "oil at $200 v2.0" call.
Another highlight is that even as the DXY approaches the highs for the
day (and pushing gold lower), stocks have dislocated from chasing the dollar and instead follow
bonds (inversely) intraday. Watch for Google earnings after the close.
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That gap looks so tempting at around 1068 (ES) for this afternoon trading...
Just have to see what the last hour brings...... Decent moves will not be until Globex hours though.. :roll:
On a side note Ms Francis looks well in her white top ...
I am sorry for being ignorant but... what is a "gap".
www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gap.asp
I hope you're not thinking that gap will be filled...
Maybe $200 oil would be a good thing. Could it be the stick that breaks the camel's back, and the sheep of America finally wake up and get pissed off enough to do something? 3 to 4 dollar per gallon gas, people losing jobs, less hours worked, the holiday's coming up, and no money to spend, should lead to some really pissed off people.
Where do we sign up?
Google earnings after the close: "Better than expected".
Can't believe the shit that comes out of Cramer's mouth. On CNBC he is comparing the American people that are pissed at the bankers for robbing the taxpayers to the communists that ushered Lenin into power.
One of the banker flacks was defending
the bonuses on PBS Lehrer on the basis of the
banksters had contributed to the American recovery,
so they should participate in the rewards.
He forgot to mention we changed the
accounting rules for the bankster back in March
so they could hide their losses.
So we are paying bonuses on a number of
financials which remain insolvent.
Well, that is not such a bad comparison, the bankers are like the old Russian aristocracy.
He is a true shill for the oligarchs. Caught a few minutes of his anti-bear tirade yesterday. His argument is: heh, look at the market and tell me the bears are right! While true that money can be made in a rigged market, it certainly isn't a bull market. It is only one full of bull.
Gotta push anything they can at this point
Major MoMo Sucker Trade To Fade
WTI made a VERY impressive run to new highs on inventory data that is questionably bullish.
Padd V crude stocks down 2.7 and Padd III up 4.1.
Leaving out the Padd V give crude a 3.0 mln build. Runs % down 4.1% at 80.9.% Cushing crude stocks up 400,000
Crude Imports -0.367
Gas Imports - 0.321
Gas Demand -0.013
Dist Demand +0.03
I suppose shutting down refineries works to clear that pesky gasoline inventory but doesn't that kinda put the whack on crude?
MoMo traders to the rescue.
BTW notice Gold and Yen lately? Will the Euro be far behind?
Got to have the options expire at a nice super high level dontcha know
Exactly what I was thinking. Friday will be a good time to look for short entries.
As long as the kleptocrat CEOs get more bonuses it's all good.
INTC had great earnings and looking at the share price, besides some stupidity in the AH session on the back of a CNBC ramp, the shares have done nothing. What does that tell you about the market? Priced for perfection perhaps.
Wonder why there are huge vols on IBM at the end of the day for last 5 days?
So what now?. I think finally controlled propping of oil is threatining to become unleashed full scale,and that put BB on the spot. I believe the "full employment" defence of the fed actions up untill now,will be nulified if oil gets back to last year level(of course the people of MI,FL,AZ,CA,could elect to move to TX in that case).Where do we go from here?
I find that the (some) ADRs behave in a half-wave rectifier in these low volume days: as dollar moves down the ADR price increases (fair) but never corrects when the dollar moves up.
Yawn, this market will go higher and higher and higher, and the dollar lower and lower and lower.
What about printing $1.25T for MBS, soon to be increased, don't you people get?
I stand by my predictions - S&P will hit 1200 by the end of the year, and 2000 by the end of next year, while gold hits $5000 and oil $200 a barrel by 12/31/2010.
There will be fits and starts as the Fed pretends they want to defend the dollar, but it will be all talk.
And how do think consumer spending will hold up with $6-8 dollar gas? 65-70% of GDP is consumer spending. Does this dollar devalution really work under these circumstances? Not to mention the price of sugar, coffee, ect ect.
mdtrader, you bring up a point that has been troubling me re: the falling $.
While it may be necessary to devalue the $ rather than defaulting on the debt, this sounds like semantics to me. Why not just negotiate a write-down and confine the damage? Disguise the whole thing by selling some government land to the debt holders are an inflated price or whatever.
By devaluing the dollar, all imports will increase in price. For all those things we "manufacture" using imported components, I fail to see how any great advantage for our export trade is gained. Any commodities we have will instantantly adjust to world prices. It looks to me like any exports gains will come directly out of the hides of the US blue collar worker, who is already being skinned alive through unemployment, reduced hours and pay cuts.
Consumer spending, or any economic data, has nothing to do with the asset markets.
Were you not around in 1999? Did fundamentals matter then?
No, what mattered was the flood of liquidity Greenspan threw in the system in fear of Y2K.
You will beat your head against a wall worrying about fundamentals.
Definately agree that the pumping may not stop.
The only difference between this bubble, the tech bubble and the housing bubble, is that everyone sees this one for what it is and the others were somewhat better "veiled." That alone should make it more interesting and probably, eventually, more devistating. Just not today.
With speculators (not that I blame them - how the hell are you supposed to protect yourself from a central bank intent on looting you via the printing press - you buy stuff - real stuff - like oil, PMs and other commodities) having deep pockets gambling in the casino known as the "markets", the actual consumer and his/her puny little purchasing power has jack-shit to do with the prices.
You're making the mistake of trying to extrapolate a perceived trend too far into the future.
I think it is much more likely that the dollar will rebound and the market will tank. Nobody is buying "stuff."
If the dollar is the only thing "pushing" Gold lower, how come it's down even more percentage-wise in euro's? The DXY has only a marginal effect on the Gold price and isn't the sole or even a primary determinant of it. Also, I think it's great that we are seeing Gold decouple from the equity market.
Gold looking a little tired, moved 80 odd bucks quickly. Will probably trade down to $1030 ish, maybe $1000, to test the bulls that bought the breakout.
Speaking of gold, it looks like the fuckwads over at Barrick are in a panic. Expecting a big move upside in the near future?
http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2009/10/american-barrick-issues-125-bill...
Yeah, somebody is definitely very worried about rocketing Gold prices. I especially like this part:
"Fuckwad". I haven't used that one in a long time. Always had a nice ring to it.
GLD gold bar registry is a FRAUD. Quote from the article:
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1255630435.php
Can somebody please explain to me how Gold stored by the world's largest Gold ETF is subject to such WILD swings in such a short span of time? The conclusion is obvious to anyone of sound mind - GLD ETF HOLDS NO GOLD. Remember Enron, Bernie Madoff, Worldcom? It's all good until it isn't. You have been warned.
Any thoughts on SGOL or SIVR?
http://www.etfsecurities.com/us/securities/etfs_physical_exposure.asp
I suspect at the worst, GLD is a fractional counterfeiting scheme like everything else on the stock market. I'm sure they have some of the gold, but they:
1) Buy futures-which is fake
2) Lend gold to shorts
3) Don't move bullion around like a lego set. I bet most GLD is a "promise" and a claim that cannot be forced. I wouldnlt hold GLD for more than a day.