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Intraday Volume Update: Volume Plunges: Market Up, Volume Surge: Market Down
At this rate the only metric to gauge the stock market will be how big the L2 order book is. Any time, any time, there is a pick up in volume, over the past 3 months, the market has dropped. Plain and simple. Consolidation to the downside will be very entertaining.
Chart translation:
- volume drops, market surges
- volume surges, market drops
- volume now dropping, market going up.
And that completes Efficient Market Theory for 2010.
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This post did not say Dow 36k.
Dow to 36K is now assumed.
Trade accordingly. Or at your immediate peril. I'm not sure which applies actually.
Its been widely noted that insiders arent buying into this rally. In fact, they have been unloading like there is no tomorrow.
Are the insider selling being orchestrated at certain times of the day? Like during the morning sell off, which turn out to be short term buy on the dip opportunities?
Thats not true...the insider buy to sell ratio has actually (slightly) improved.
Check MFFAIS for recent holdings.
Dow now at the 200 MA on the weekly and the 50 MA on the monthly - I think its pause time in the next 100-150 points........
going short a tad here..... its the most hated trade in the world. Even bears hate being short right now.
Could someone explain what the obsession with Dow 36,00 is? What's the significance of this particular number, and why not an even higher number, since it seems there is hyper-inflation affecting stocks (although I'm sure other goods & services will soon catch up).
Enlightenment appreciated.
I was wondering the exact same thing.
Not completely true. Yesterday the volume definitely was spiking on upside moves.
Come on....those were nothing more thatn SHORTs covering. When shorts cover...someone has to sell to them. That is where the JPM's and GS's of the world come into play. How long have you been here? You should know that by now.
He has been here 12 weeks and 2 days. And counting. Tick tock.
Thats called doing your due diligence! Congratulations.
ha! yes, a worthy candidate for that IBD job everyone wants
hey wanger, u looking at the charts upside down
We used to call that .... uh ... oh yeah, "distribution".
Yeah, distribution takes forever when its a hundred shares at a time.
TD, you do work. This has been very interesting to watch.
So if volume dropping what use are the liquidity providers if they are virtually the only ones in the market playing with themselves?
Oh oh, you said a bad word.
Liquidity providers.
Heh, "playing with themselves". Heheh.
Maybe Master Bates is Ben Shalom? Hmmm....
Well they are 'liquid' ity providers.....
Anyone look at the RSI lately? Pull the chart out to 5, 10 even 15 or 20 years for a better perspective. My eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the Lord.........
Looks like a multi year H&S on that 20year chart. A couple more years around here could trigger the next major selloff - in 2012-2014
OK.
Have you seen the RSI on that 20 year chart? I noticed you didn't actually respond to my question.
CD what is your argument re: RSI?
Just that it appears on my 20 year S&P chart to be at its highest. Same for the Dow and almost for the NASDAQ. This market is moving higher in defiance of all reason. It is beyond overbought, beyond overpriced and I'm worried we will wake up on a Monday and have a 5 or 10% down gap when the herd loses confidence.
I understand the "need" for the Ponzi to push the market up. But it doesn't make sense for it to be so blatant and obvious. There are other ways to pump the market and make it look like natural forces. Since they have the ability to do so but are not, what is the message they are sending? Is this desperation, arrogance or what?
Just asking myself why when it's not needed.
It's mostly desperation, thats it. How do you fix something that is already at the end of its working life (dollar, debt, fiscal irresposibility etc.), you can't. What you do is what and see where the monster will attack and then you run the opposite away from the problem and hope that you survive.
At least this make it pretty easy for the smart money to find its exit point.
Anecdotal strategic default stories... and the spending sprees that come from it.
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/04/more-on-anecdotal-benefits-of-st...
Absolutely eye opening.
$8 billion a month, someone said yesterday. That's some healthy coinage.
Maybe I should signup for that. Maybe I don't really need my home that much. Maybe in 12 months hence "ownership" will have become a quaint function of yesterday's calculus.
This is a horror film in which the monster is crawling invisibly around in the shadows -- growling and hissing to itself -- and everyone is afraid which way to run. Teetering on the edge, edgy and nervous, knowing they will have to run for their lives and ready to run, just not sure which direction.
When a tentacle emerges from the darkness, they will run.
Watching and fretting. Waiting for the moon to turn red and fall from the sky.
That would be a heckuva "not TBT" day, if I get the way this is supposed to work. Some traders will be howling at that red, falling moon that day, not quite drowning the screams and wails of the greater fool theorists, as they're torn apart..
just make sure you run faster than the next man!
You are so right with that analogy that I had to split my answer to another post. What I think is that everybody is afraid but don't want to run because not only they don't know which way is safe, but they need it to attack or be in another part of the room distracted so that they can run for the lives and hope they are the first ones out the door or area before it turns it's attention on them. As someone else posted last week, the low volume days may likely be big Market Makers and institutions selling and buying blocks of stock back and forth between each other. Low volume makes it easy to move the market, but high volume its extremely difficult to move it the opposite way that the most people are going (selling or buying). The best you can do is slow it down or tell the big Market Makers to buy buy buy (thats the PPT doing that).
I thought I just heard a somewhat subdued Jim buybuybuy Cramer say that he's supposed to promote "V". That's CNBS.
All I know is, my long dated puts are now short dated. This is getting way old and I wish someone would here us but "They can't handle the truth". From a Few Good Boyz.
How high can the RSI go on the SPY? 80? 90?
36,000 :)
Congrats Cyan on the spy 1200 calls and I hope its profitable.
Im playing the slow boat down long term, Im too scared to step onto the moving express.
Google was 100 in Nov 2007 with a stock price of $711. It was trading almost $300 lower 4 months later.
And for you real estate bulls, 10yr IYR RSI is pushing 95!!!! HAHAHAHA
Real estate prices are pretty much conditioned only on availability of credit. If no one is afraid to lend for housing projects and CRE, expect housing to rise.. it's that simple. Any time there's liquidity (credit kind) flowing easily, expect things to rise regardless how bad anything is. It's that simple.
this is just like Oct opex and Jan opex. we saw the high today, friday we will see selling, monday we will see our usual bullish intervention, and then we will get our 3-5% selloff, only to be saved and rocketed higher again.
i am waiting for monday close to go short, with a tight, tight leash. i agree, shorting is the most hated thing in the world right now, even by die-hard short sellers.
The government finally found a way to have citizens take on more debt again
CD- It's so the market will be so goooood ,that when it comes to Financial
Reg, they'll say "Fergetta bout it"