Introducing DARPA

Dear Readers,
Today is Zero Hedge's ten month anniversary. What started off as an experiment in focused distributed content has become a site which has clocked over 30 million hits, has over five hundred thousand recurring monthly readers, and touches on virtually every aspect of economics, finance and capital markets. Having some modest influence on broader policy through our objective and systematic unmasking of complex "behind the scenes" issues has been merely frosting on the cake for us, as well as some degree of validation that our pursuit of the unvarnished truth is the right approach. We are happy that we now have the support of over 50 contributors (and many more waiting to be unleashed) as we grow and as topics we could never hope to cover alone but deserving of a detailed examination appear.
If we have learned one thing in these ten months, is that the old "soapbox" media model is dead. The future belongs exclusively to distributed content, where constant reader feedback is critical to fine-tuning and expanding any given theme or topic. This realization is why we are happy to present to you our latest product: the Distributed Analysis and Research Portfolio Aggregator page, or “DARPA.”
For many of you DARPA will not be a novel idea: leveraging on the concept developed originally by the somewhat secretive Value Investor Club, if not its various and less-secret offshoots. We will provide a platform where anyone and everyone will be able to present sophisticated, bottom-up, fundamentally driven theses, analyses and write-ups, in very much the same way that traditional analysts present research ideas. While the focus at present is predominantly on credit ideas, the modular interface permits virtually any product to be presented as an investment idea, including equity, convert, cash and derivative credit, preferred, stub and merger arb. However, where Zero Hedge will differ materially from the prevailing trope of secretive investment clubs that limit author participation to 250 or so members annually. Zero Hedge will have no such limitations. In fact, we hope to make DARPA the most democratic, distributed, open research platform available, and eventually convert it to a fully-blown untethered "ratings agency" where content is provided exclusively by readers, and, more importantly, evaluated, and commented on exclusively by readers. Each research piece will be rated purely on its merit by other DAPRA members, with the top research pieces and top authors prominently featured.
As noted, Zero Hedge is read monthly by over half a million people. Of these, about 30% originate from major financial institutions: investment banks, traditional asset managers, hedge funds, and others. Therefore the attraction of a DAPRA concept will be twofold:
i) to share one's top ideas with the key decision-makers of the financial community, and
ii) to have one's analytical talents noticed by the key portfolio managers. Expanding on this idea, we will soon develop a "marketplace" for research ideas, where research requests can be targeted to specific authors, and where DARPA analysts with established reputations can offer their analytical services to assorted portfolio managers.
Once we have a sizable cadre of DARPA members, we will streamline the rolodex and open it up to consultancy requests by asset managers for any of the thousands of registered Zero Hedge users who have proven their analytical skills on DARPA.
In essence, we have two main goals with DARPA:
i) to make obsolete the traditional rating agency model, by replacing it with a fully distributed, peer-rated, democratic research platform, and
ii) to provide an a la carte analyst/portfolio manager/trader talent retention service. If, for example, fund manager X wants a research write up on any number of ideas in, i.e., the energy space, DARPA will provide an existing inventory of top rated energy industry contributors. Such retention could be either temporary, in the form of a consultancy agreement, or permanent, as a full-time hire.
We are confident that the over ten thousand unemployed hedge fund workers who are currently presenting their various investment theses (if their headhunters deign so) to money managers who use the recruiting process merely to "fish" for ideas, will be very happy to present their ideas to DARPA, and the over 100,000 dedicated professional asset management executives and decision makers who read Zero Hedge hourly.
As part of DARPA, it gives us great pleasure to present to you nearly 1,000 full credit tearsheets developed in collaboration with our partners at High Yield Blog. By presenting detailed, in-depth quantitative financial information, usually reserved for clients of much more expensive databases, these reports will facilitate much of the distributed analysis presented on Zero Hedge, as well as a serve as a quick reference on virtually any 'on the run' global High Yield name for the convenience of our fixed income-focused readers. And as the representative universe consists of both American and European companies, our readers on both sides of the Atlantic will find this a most useful service.
Zero Hedge is also in discussions with several strategic partners with whom we hope to provide even more core research content as we build out DARPA into what we hope becomes the "go to" portal for not just objective, sophisticated credit analysis, but for distributed, comprehensive, unbiased research across all product classes.
We will run the DARPA service for free during its initial beta test. Subsequently, eventually a modest fee will be assessed, although authors of the top 20% highest rated ideas will have free access to the site. As for broader access to Zero Hedge, we are committed to maintaining free access the blog in its current format. Though we may launch certain add-on premium services in the future, what you see on the blog today will continue, free of charge.
And as any service is only as good as its content, we hope that our readers will immediately realize the benefits of presenting their sophisticated research ideas to the platform that addresses the broadest range of finance professionals. Therefore, any registered Zero Hedge member who wishes to be able to submit content to DARPA on an ongoing basis should contact darpa@zerohedge.com with an attached representative sample or submission proposal.
We hope that DARPA will be useful to not just our professional financial followers, but will serve to educate, enlighten and reach our entire readership.
The DARPA portal page can be accessed here.
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on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 22:53
#125481
Interesting. Hmmmmm. So, is this kind of like helping out the little guy?
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:08
#125495
I've known about DARPA for many years now. There is one thing you can be absolutely 1000% certain of: Helping out the "little guy"...is NOT part of the program. But they have been quite effective is helping create the means with which to spy on and kill the little guy. At that they have been quite effective and successful.
Of course I must have this DARPA confused with this DARPA
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
http://www.darpa.mil/
We're not talking about the same place right? Are we? (please tell me I have them confused and the name is a coincidence)
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:32
#125530
you beat me to the punch...i was going to raise
a red flag with the acronym....
and yes the military kills the people it is supposed
to protect....
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 00:42
#125583
You seem to be alive and well.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 15:40
#126283
i am but john kennedy, robert kennedy, malcolm x,
martin luther king jr, john lennon, plus 13
soliders at ft hood are not.....nor are the victims
of the world trade center or oklahoma's murrah
building....
that's just for starters....
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 16:37
#126369
ps. in case the point was not clear i am implicating
the cia and their plutocrat masters in the deeds
to destroy.
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:34
#125531
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 00:19
#125563
Make an offer to sell your site.
Its obvious you cannot run it to its fullest potential.
Beautiful creation, Mr. Yang, however its time that its turned over to people who can handle the next level.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 00:42
#125586
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 10:11
#125757
http://tinyurl.com/yb7fkty
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 10:34
#125777
"This is your life and it's ending one minute at a time."
This is freaking awesome! I joined yesterday and we're moving outta Lou's basement!
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 10:49
#125803
Is that a movie quote?
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 12:42
#125981
Fight Club
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 00:42
#125584
Hey, I worked for DARPA! Best bang for buck of any government spending program, bar none! Reputation tainted by Bush, Poindexter and Total Information Awareness program.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 11:31
#125873
DARPA + best "bang" for the buck = the irony of the phrasing is just...gorgeous.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 18:31
#127717
We love you, but indeed it was a crapronym. let's press on...
now arpanet was father to the internet, not so bad.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 18:34
#127718
edit..fat finger
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 11:59
#125922
Oh please. So much technology came out of DARPA, it's not funny. This internet thingy, for example. That item has literally changed the world. Tyler's proposal would have been impossible twenty years ago. VLSI technology, the computer mouse, AI software - all were created at DARPA, or by DARPA grants to outside firms. They probably waste a lot of money (what government agency doesn't?), and they have a long list of failures as well, but overall, they have created things that have benefited everyone's lives.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 18:42
#126560
+1
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 19:43
#127803
Huh? Computer mouse was Xerox, AI software has been around much longer (LISA anyone?) and as for the internet thingy, well the TCP/IP protocols were started by founding from DARPA to a small group of Stanford graduates, but with the Unix operating system University research is what really drove and propelled the "internet thingy" - the first true TCP/IP network WAS NOT military owned.
And besides DARPA is now just ARPA, and if you really want to see what nice things these guys get up to try HAARP on for size.
On the financials side, I think this new DARPA could become big enough to take on GS - would love to see distributed analysis p0wning the big hegemons
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 12:21
#125956
You're pretending to be thick right?
It was chosen for hilarious name confusion purposes.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 17:15
#127614
Black Thursday...
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 20:25
#127852
Sounds a lot like an automated valuation model for the mortgage brokers..... Just look at the results at Fannie Mae.... DARPA wants your input, so DARPA can suck all of the water out of the lake.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 20:26
#127853
Sounds a lot like an automated valuation model for the mortgage brokers..... Just look at the results at Fannie Mae.... DARPA wants your input, so DARPA can suck all of the water out of the lake.
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:00
#125491
Come on you lugs! No more DIAPERS. Get into your DARPA!
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:54
#125546
Wow. I've never been this close to Marla before. She smells good. I mean nice. Should I say something? Maybe I could impress her with my knowledge of DARPA.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 00:14
#125558
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 00:19
#125565
Uh sorry. I got a cold.
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:00
#125492
OUTFRIGGINSTANDING stuff, ZeroHedge.
"MARK IT ZERO, DUDE"
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 05:10
#125662
Much kudos to Zero Hedge, yet again, for undertaking this latest venture! Truly a great day for McGraw-Hill and Morningstar.
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:08
#125502
I'll volunteer to be in charge of the annual DARPA swimsuit calendar.
LOL.....
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:15
#125513
Dang, Robo, I was hoping for a pic of Darpa Conger.
"Who Wants To Annul An Idiotic Marriage To A Millionaire?"
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 01:04
#125597
More. Meat.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 02:02
#125623
Is this a request for a curvier woman, or for more women. Your post is not clear to me.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 06:31
#125680
Agreed...painfully thin.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 09:18
#125720
tragically thin
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 11:37
#125883
Thin? Not where I'm looking...
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 14:31
#126159
"More.Meat."
Is that a reference to the SyFy original movie Cyclops because damnit i hope it is
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:53
#126732
Fascinating. . .
A bikini with a gripper surface.
What will DARPA inspire next?
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 18:38
#127728
it's a grip her surface, but not so much meat on the bones
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 20:59
#127883
Oh I dunno. There appears to be enough cracks and crevices for me to hook my belaying device into. ;-)
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 18:40
#127730
edit..deadish "save" button
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:13
#125512
don't f@#k with the music
congratulations
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:25
#125519
Bringing about a better world on a timeline that leads to zero. Not sure why, but best to make it as comfortable ride to the end as possible.
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:36
#125536
Shanky, now that 1090 is history, where are you looking?
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 10:12
#125759
1121 my original upper target - minis have a gap from 1104 to 1109 that may need filling - watch the upper trendline on SPX RSI for possible reversal point - follow the daily indicators on your fav index, they are the only things that have not lied all the way up. The IH&S played out to the number (luckily). The dollar is key as well.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 17:17
#127620
Shanghai peaked at 3478.01 on 8/4/9...
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 00:19
#125562
I was just going to say, this should be mildly entertaining, until the lights go out. All my thoughts seem derivative these days.
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:31
#125528
Saw that earlier before your post - was wondering what it was...
Diggin it.
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:35
#125532
Has it only been 10 months? Feels like 10 years. DARPA? I'm not sure there will be much interest in equities after what I expect we'll see over the next two years. 2012 may not be the end of the civilized world, but I doubt most Americans will be worried about their 401(k)'s.
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:36
#125535
which is why our core focus is on credit.
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:39
#125537
Thanks. I realize that there are several TD's, but I love the blog. Please share my appreciation with everyone in Project Mayhem.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 18:41
#127737
I give you a lot of credit, and the bond market rules
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:36
#125534
Hmmm, so I have to figure out how to put "GOLD BITCHES!!!" in an analytical write-up.
I'll get on it.
I am Chumbawamba.
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:51
#125545
Yo! Chumbawamba, might you perform "Dutiful Servants and Political Masters" from your "Pictures of Starving Children Sell Records" LP? Or even better, "Three Years Later" from the "Bullshit Detector 2" compilation?
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:40
#125538
T.D. - I love your sense of humor. Maybe we can have a little sub-category called PAM within the framework of DARPA.
"Tyler Durden - Man, I see in fight club the strongest and smartest men(women) who've ever lived. I see all this potential, and I see squandering. God damn it, an entire generation pumping gas, waiting tables; slaves with white collars. Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don't need. We're the middle children of history, man. No purpose or place. We have no Great War. No Great Depression. Our Great War's a spiritual war... our Great Depression is our lives. We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars. But we won't. And we're slowly learning that fact. And we're very, very pissed off."
We have got our Great Depression Now...
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:45
#125541
Congratulations on the evolutionary leap; this looks/sounds fascinating. You may be slightly optimistically estimating the readership numbers (unless the mirror sites really add that much), but kudos on a most imaginative development.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 10:25
#125769
Well I check ZH about 20 times a day, so I think the numbers are accurate, and if stupid a$$ YHOO keeps messing with their homepage throwing all sorts of stupid popups all over the place, ZH will be by homepage...
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 19:34
#127789
I gave up YAHOO and went back to Google exactly because of this reason.
That, and I do not like the new look. preferred the old look.
At least Google gives me options of what I want showing on my home page.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 20:28
#127854
Dear Yahoo.... I paid for my account, quit screwing with the view.
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:47
#125542
Some might be skeptical of the value of research or investment ideas published online. Here's a study of the value of investment ideas offered at the referenced Value Investors Club site.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1499341
In sum, the author finds that the ideas on the VIC site from January 2000 to December 2008 do have value, relative to a benchmark, though more value on the long side, than short side, and more value in small caps rather than large caps.
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:49
#125543
Way to step on DoD toes!
http://www.darpa.mil/
Great idea. Looking forward to seeing how you execute this.
on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 23:54
#125548
.
If DARPA is successful, and actually "helps out the little guy" one should ask themselves who controls the DNS servers on this small planet?
It's a noble cause -soon to be captured by the elite.
Fight like hell Zero Hedge...the little guy can't handle the truth if it exposes the pigmen. And they are not to be exposed...or are they...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8de2W3rtZsA
.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 12:07
#125934
People can use alternative root servers http://www.open-rsc.org/
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 00:04
#125552
Thanks for another great addition to an already awesome website. I just want you to know that if you ever try to leave me.......I'll kill you.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 01:21
#125608
Yeah, you think people want to know your identity now, wait until you try to shut down the site! We don't care if they have threatened your unborn children, damn it, the site stays up!
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 00:04
#125554
Great Idea. I'm unemployed but I have credit and equity buyside experience. I'll contribute. One thing I wonder about, if someone becomes relatively influential and they are employed at a fund and their research is able to move the market does a subpoena show up at their desk one day from the SEC?
Seems like a risk most employed people will be unwilling to take these days as I assume posting investment ideas with great detail is probably a cause to be fired at most funds (even if those investments aren't implemented at the fund).
Cool idea, it could be great.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 00:32
#125575
gosh, what a sexy concept. Luv it.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 11:57
#125919
"Pump and Dump"... filtering out propaganda may be a daunting task if this really catches fire...
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 00:27
#125571
ZH's naming this DARPA is their way of playing psy-ops on the feds
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 00:31
#125573
whats andy say on buildout
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 00:33
#125577
Hm, interesting. Bold.
My, this next year got even more interesting.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 01:03
#125581
I have a friend, a really brilliant guy. Disappeared off the face of the earth for about 18 years. Surfaced in Australia. He had been recruited by DARPA out of grad school and worked on things he cannot talk about, ever. The fact that he moved to the furthest available place on the planet, into the middle of the W. Desert (underground dwelling) and to this day will not say a word about what he did for 18 years to anyone would scare the bejeezus out of me, if I hadn't already come to terms with the fact that on a long enough timeline...
On an unrelated note, I just interviewed for a PM position with a Pertobas subsidiary (lost my US job 2 weeks ago) and Brazil is really hopping. Haven't decided about the job yet, I have to go to Malaysia in December for another (short-term) project, but I am seriously considering permanent relocation. Did get mildly robbed while I was there (Recife) though. Wasn't as bad as the average dental appointment. My mugger was rather lackadaisical about the whole thing. Certainly cost me a lot less than Whirlybird Ben has recently.
Best of luck on the next phase of ZH's evolution. I truly appreciate this site and everyone who contributes to it.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 01:19
#125606
"The fact that he moved to the furthest available place on the planet"
Say what?
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 08:41
#125706
Furthest available from the USA. The Western Desert of Australia. Slightly more hospitable than Antarctica.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 11:30
#125870
2012 skynet goes active.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 11:35
#125878
A Project Mayhem position with a Petrobas subsidiary: suffice it to say I'm intrigued.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 16:33
#126360
Project 'Management' position unfortunately, though any project I run always involves plenty of Mayhem. I will keep my handlers at ZH informed of any relevant intelligence.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 00:34
#126831
So he disappears for 18 years, refuses to talk about what he's been doing during that time, and he's a friend? You sure you're not talking about an ex-wife?
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 17:21
#127629
Hypersonic flight...
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 00:43
#125587
Thanks for all the hard work guys, much appreciated .
Can't wait to pay for the upgrade to the new site!
You guys deserve it.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 01:07
#125599
*applause* and many years more ...
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 01:10
#125602
MARK IT ZERO
BOOM BABY...DOGGY STYLE
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 01:47
#125618
“Of these, about 30% originate from major financial institutions: investment banks, traditional asset managers, hedge funds, and others.”
And, …“over 100,000 dedicated professional asset management executives and decision makers who read Zero Hedge hourly.”
How were these numbers determined?
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 07:03
#125684
Yeah, interesting right? Unless they divulge that info on their own.
In concept the idea is amazing. But how am I to trust the "30% that originate from financial institutions?"
Again, conceptually love the idea.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 10:33
#125776
www.sitemeter.com
rather basic questions for anyone who runs a website
Biff Malibu
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 15:12
#126222
Financial institution originations could be determined by IP address tracked by any suite of web analytics software (or even using the most basic Google Analytics for free).
However, in the realm of web analytics, it looks like ZH need some work. No one uses the term "hits" anymore, it's traffic, as a hit is really a request for anything from a page to be loaded. Stick with visits (sessions) to measure traffic. If anyone has questions feel free to reach out to me.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 01:53
#125620
This is real and substantial revolution. I am excited for you.
You can seize the means of production, or you can ignore them and become the means of production.
Holy fuck, I hope it works. I'm not sure you have enough time, but its cool to go down trying.
Watch your six. Don't get coopted.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rz0BE-gl_UI
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 01:58
#125621
If you make money, you should permanently rent a huge big screen display in times square and sequentially show each legislator's face and caption describing the latest stupid thing he or she did in the past week. Just continually scroll through the house, the senate, the executive branch, the FED and advertise all the dirty laundry 24/7 365 day a year. Votes, corruption, bribes, stupidity, failure to read legislation. Make the captions into a nice rhyme so every one will remember.
Better yet, pay for it through an Obama stimulus grant.
Make each member so recognizable that they have no where to hide. Kids will point as they pass on the street and say, "daddy he's a bad man for passing TARP", and the dad will say, "son what do you expect from somebody who doesn't read legislation", and the son will say, "daddy, even I can read".
You get the idea.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 02:15
#125627
This is brilliant, and i hope an actionable idea Mark Beck!
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 04:23
#125650
Brilliant.........and legally actionable by anyone whose face is on the billboard. There is a very good reason ZH is not based, not even the servers, in the US.
But, there are plenty of ways to skin a Congressperson. Keep thinking and posting.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 04:36
#125655
I thought truth was a defense?
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 10:14
#125670
What's that legal saying? There is truth, there is legal truth and then there is legally provable truth.
The evil ones obscure in order to destroy. But there's always another way over the flooded river as soon as you accept the bridge in front of you is destroyed. They may be smart but we are smarter once we give up playing their rigged game by their rules.
They own the legal system. Short circuit the system. Go around it. I find it interesting that a new movie called "Pirate radio" is just coming out. Pirates don't respect the old rules but neither do they sit around waiting to be caught by the old rules.
ZH is an example of the new rules.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 11:08
#125827
I hear what you are saying. I do. We are in strange territory nowadays.
But I fail to see how showing someone on camera--someone talking on camera in a public venue making public laws--could ever be possibly construed as actionable slander. If what you say is as bad as it is, C-SPAN would have been sued into oblivion ages ago.
To your larger part about routing your message around the system barriers, I totally agree. I did it way back in the day when I hand-edited a photocopied conspira-fanzine and mailed it around the country to my reader base of five. Rules should always be tested. Back in the 90s William Cooper was trying hard to get people all over interested in local FM radio below the FCC enforcement threshhold. He was a decade or so too early; nowadays we could all stream content to each other across a city if we configure the net well enough and anyone with a transistor radio could swim in alternative viewpoints.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 12:03
#125929
Desperate men do desperate things. We must move beyond considering how sane and reasonable people will respond to irritation or outright assaults.
If a message as described is placed on the billboard, the powers that be (assuming they don't like it) will find many different ways to pull it down, including personal pressure on the owner of the billboard and nuisance law suits against the billboard owner and the person/entity with the message.
If the only thing that's put up is video or pictures of various law makers without editorial comment underneath, what exactly is the message and who will pay attention? It's the comments that will burn their asses. C-Span makes no direct judgement nor offers their own commentary on what they broadcast. C-Span invented PC. Besides, the counter attack against the message and billboard will not come directly from the lawmakers but instead from their minions.
All I'm saying is there are much more effective ways of accomplishing this than to waste time and money on something that will get quickly pulled down. Don't rely on the legal system to protect any of our rights because we have none if they decide it's no longer convenient for us to believe we do.
Please remember this. The only reason we're even tolerated at this time is because they're winning. It's as simple as that. Get their backs against the wall and there will be blood. Mostly ours in fact.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ml2Ae2SIXac
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 13:08
#126012
I've said for a long time--more years than I wish were true--that all this will end with blood in the streets.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 16:29
#126351
If you listen to Fiat Lux on Haus der Luege you will hear the blood hitting the streets.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 18:29
#126550
CD - One cannot be rational with the irrational. You know this. Fear begets fear and the rule of law is THE prophylaxis for a self governing society. This is why our society is failing. There is a process of judicial exclusion that is destroying the very substance of our society. And substance can never be completely replaced with myth.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 00:50
#126834
I think the problem stems is not just from irrationality but from ignorance; at least on the part of the public. I take the subway to work, and I often find myself looking around at the people on the train --- reading, listening to music, doing crosswords, sleeping, etc. I can't help but think to myself how many of these poor saps understand what's going on around them? They go to work, get their paychecks, they do their thing, and the believe that government is acting in their best interests. Blanket statements coming out from compassionate-sounding politicians sound soothing, "We must do the right thing." "Failure is not an option" "yes, we can" etc...
People start waking up when they start losing their jobs, when gas goes to $4/gallon. What we see as inevitable, inevitably will occur only when enough people see the effects of the problems first hand -- and even then the problems must cascade ceaselessly, for government is really good at deflecting responsibility by finding scape goats.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 20:00
#127819
Very well put Daedal .. but wouldn't it be nice to enjoy that very ignorance, if only but for a few moments of each passing day?
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 13:44
#126059
As 125842 noted, truth is not a defense. In the USA, falsity is an element of the tort. (That means that the plantiff must prove that the statement was false. If truth were merely a defense, the defendant would have to prove the statement was true, something that can be difficult to do.)
More importantly, because the people mentioned are public figures, one must also prove _NY Times_ malice in order to successfully sue for defamation or libel. I.e., the publisher of the alleged defamation must have acted with "reckless disregard of whether [the statement or publication] was true or false." NY Times v. Sullivan, http://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/historics/USSC_CR_0376_0254_ZS.html; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Times_Co._v._Sullivan"
NY Times malice" has been a very important 1st Amendment protection for journalists and bloggers in the USA since the 1960s. It makes it very difficult for public figures to recover for defamation or libel; it's one of the few cases that every American (especially bloggers or those commenting in a public forum) should know about.
That said, those criticised could bring nuisance defamation lawsuits against ZH in order to run up fees in the hope of shutting down the ongoing negative publicity for themselves and other public figures.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 17:07
#126419
If they cant get past ZH motion to dismiss, which would be filed instantly, how are they going to run up their costs? Especially in this legal market -- I bet I could construct a pretty good law firm right now in any major city just from all the unemployed and soon to be unemployed attorneys.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 15:25
#126252
Wouldn't wish it on my enemies but you've never been divorced?
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 11:19
#125842
No, actually it is not.
Defamation is a tort which involves the invasion of a person's interest in his or her reputation and good name. Costello v. Hardy, 2003-1146 (La.1/21/04), 864 So.2d 129; Fitzgerald v. Tucker, 98-2313 (La.6/29/99), 737 So.2d 706, 715.
A successful claimant in a defamation action must establish the following elements: (1) defamatory words; (2) publication; (3) falsity; (4) malice; and (5) injury. Rogers, supra.
If even one of the required elements of the tort is lacking, the cause of action fails. Costello, supra; Douglas v. Thomas, 31,470 (La.App. 2 Cir. 2/24/99), 728 So.2d 560, writ denied, 99-0835 (La.5/14/99), 741 So.2d 661; Kosmitis v. Bailey, 28,585 (La.App. 2d Cir.12/20/96), 685 So.2d 1177.
Even when a plaintiff makes a prima facie showing of the essential elements of defamation, recovery may be precluded if the defendant shows either (1) the statement was true, or (2) the statement was protected by a privilege, absolute or qualified.
Costello, supra; *1210 Doe v. Grant, 2001-0175 (La.App. 4 Cir. 1/29/03), 839 So.2d 408, writ denied, 2003-0604 (La.5/2/03), 842 So.2d 1102.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 13:52
#126069
Great response. Nice to see the legal eagles reading this site. Welcome.
You demonstrate exactly what I'm talking about. Very difficult to do much in the legal system that can't be done much more quickly with some muscle and special ops.
I always remember the golden rule. There is little doubt who is exercising that rule over the past few years. While I agree the legal system can be a refuge, we were shown how the Chrysler bond holders fared in the legal system. I believe that was just the first shot across the bow.
If the powers that be want us crushed in the legal system, they'll either find a way or change the rules. Either way, valuable time will be lost fighting a rigged game by their rules. Of this I'm certain.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 19:00
#126572
+1
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 23:37
#126800
So, what do you do when the govt. defames you?
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 09:16
#128376
Use K-Y and smile smile smile.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 14:05
#126334
WOW- never bothered to check where ZH's server(s) are. Never it even crossed my mind one may actually need to host in Sweden! Are we so close as Orwell says "In times of mass deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act" ? Are we ? Holly smokes!
BTW, clicking around ZH's hosting provider, they have a great (as both bandwidth and price)
Tunnel service (OpenVPN) here: http://prq.se/?p=tunnel&intl=1
And here is a great, and I mean GREAT (as price and as in "blows
the socks off of a 10 times more-expensive cisco") with very easy
and powerful user interface, and yes- it does support OpenVPN.
http://routerboard.com/index.php?showProduct=56
You may have to find it on the "resellers" link or
ebay as this site is wholesale and has minimum order
in the hundreds.
Disclosure: I am happy user of RB750 and soon PRQ, but
have no interest of any kind in promoting either.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 02:12
#125626
I like research, I like distributed content and I like Zerohedge.
This move is a "Good Thing".
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 02:20
#125628
Not cool, ultra cool ! Thank You again zero hedge !
Whatever it helps putting a nail in GS coffin by empowering the little guy sounds like a great idea.
Not commenting much lately (as I am not an expert) but still reading you several times a day.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 03:12
#125637
Couple interesting charts here.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/es-perspective-rising-or-setting...
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 03:12
#125638
Zerohedge continues to amaze me as to the great length they sacrifice themselves, in efforts to spread the word, reach the unreachable, explain to the masses that WE WILL NOT BE TAKING THIS SHIT ANY LONGER!
And now this...exposing brilliant minds to the masses, sicking every last drop of ideas of others to such a high level opportunity as research analysis. OPENING IDEAS IN THE WAKE OF DESTRUCTION IS MADDENINGLY INSANE AND I LOVE IT. DID YOU GET THAT WASHINGTON? HEY GS...IS ANYBODY THERE OR DID YOU BITE YOUR HEADOFF YET TO SPITE YOUR FACE!
As you will see, in the pages and pages of Zerohedge, history in the making and stories within stories, that bring new insight and speak of our darkest fears. I applaud you and pray protection over we who know between right and wrong and are willing to take the path less taken. Thanks again, for bringing us together to learn from each other continually. I will be forever greatful for the bit of sanity you have given me, NOT TO MENTION ALL THE SHIT I'VE LEARNED I DIDN'T KNOW AND HAD TO RESEARCH! So power on DARPA! Tyler(s) and Marla(s) we salute you!
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 05:53
#125672
What sacrifice?? On the contrary i think they are making good money out of this site and would be making it paid site soon to mint more money.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 08:59
#125713
Why shouldn't they make money out of this site. You don't think Cramer gets paid for lying to you (along with the rest of Big Media). It took a lot of courage (and work) to build this site with no guarantee of any reward. Anyone who provides a valuable service should be paid and the more valuable the service the better the pay should be (at least in a rational market). Thanks, ZeroHedge and I, for one, hope you make a bundle for your hard work.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 09:54
#125741
What's up with you? I guess people should work their asses off so an anonymous ungreatful asshole should resent their efforts. People have to eat! You my friend should eat shit and die.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 11:14
#125833
Hey shitbird,
When you are emitting as much content--useful content--that ZH does, and you have to float the costs of production associated with all that content (time, hardware, bandwidth, cigarettes, inflatable dolls, etc) I think you will sing a whole different tune.
But you never will make such content will you? Nope, you'll just come here and snipe.
Like a shitbird.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 12:07
#125935
Inflatable dolls? You mean Marla is an inflatable doll?
Say it ain't so, Marla. Say it ain't so.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 13:11
#126015
Marla is no inflatable doll. She is an erudite and tenacious character, good to have on our side.
that I named my own inflatable doll Marla is another matter completely, mere coincidence.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 13:53
#126074
Anatomically correct I assume?
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 18:14
#127691
Nicholsong, absolutely laugh-out-loud funny. Thank you!
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 11:28
#125867
Let me just set the record straight here. Zero Hedge enjoys the time, effort and (most importantly right now) capital of its senior staff, without which there would be no Zero Hedge. Zero Hedge is not cheap to run and no one, even near the top, is getting rich off the site at this point.
I'm obviously not going to get into specifics on finances, but one only needs the most passing command of basic math to see that it's difficult to construct a "making good money" model for Zero Hedge right now.
Obviously, we hope this changes, but most of the senior staff aren't in it for the bucks. Rather, we'd like to have more resources to pour into the site, and thereby expand functionality and content for its users. For starters, we'd LOVE to double our FOIA budget.
Finally, the day we start to see the kind of funds coming into Zero Hedge that will sustain it and provide for a bit of growth, we'll yank the donate link you see on your left there.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 18:17
#127696
Good luck and God bless. Your efforts are sincerely appreciated.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 23:53
#128011
hey marla.................... fogettaboutit
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 23:55
#128014
hey marla...................fogetaboutit
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 23:56
#128017
fogetaboutit
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 23:57
#128018
Forget about it.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 03:39
#125642
Amazing... Zero Hedge is taking it to the next level. Awesome. I will be contributing soon.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 23:59
#128023
soon? yeah-----------right
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 03:54
#125645
This is a very good idea, and actually made me realize that I never submitted a single full research report to this site. I will share some of what I am working on currently, in detail.
Kudos from someone who has perpetually worked outside of the establishment. I am sure all realize how much of a threat this is to the status quo as well as an opportunity to truly change the modus operandi.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 04:54
#125659
Reggie. I love your work. How bad did you get hit today. I'm demoralized. I've been trying to short REv everyday. Finally did. It went up $2 right after. I'm scared what these fucks have up their sleeves.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 09:45
#125736
As i read this, i thought that you would like this. This is definitely your area of expertise, i believe you will have a field day in this area.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 13:12
#126017
Were you intending to post a link with that seemingly unfinished comment?
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 05:22
#125664
Best luck with that!
I am no investor, at least while I can keep surviving as R/D engineer. Yet I spend some excellent time here.
BTW, keep in mind some of us use ad-blockers and just prefer directly supporting worthy sites.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 13:16
#126026
Are there ads on ZH? I've been using ad blockers for so long now (predating my ZH lurking) that I don't think I've ever seen one here.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 06:37
#125665
Uh... Isn't any trading in this environment just contibuting to the bubble? Wouldn't a longer term project be proposing the next model? It seems one's either a soldier, or a target.
Here's I point I'd like to offer on that;
A major part of the problem is the system of public financing, where enormous bills, stuffed with enough goodies to gain sufficient support, are rammed through the system. That's not budgeting. The process of budgeting is to prioritize needs and desires, then decide where to draw the line between what can be afforded and what cannot. In the US, some years ago, there was a discussion about the "line item veto," where the president could delete any item he wished from spending bills. Obviously this would remove all power of the purse from the legislature and likely be unconstitutional. In the spirit of actual budgeting, a possible solution would be to break these bills down to their constituent lines and then have every legislator assign a percentage value to each line and then re-assemble them in order of preference. The president would then draw the line at what would be funded. This would divide responsibility, allowing the legislature to prioritize, while giving the president final authority over total spending. Since making the cut would be graded on a curve, there would be much less incentive to trade favors and the percentage system would allow legislators to fine tune their granting of favors to other legislators and lobbyists. Since local spending by the national government would be reduced, a local public banking system which recycled wealth back into local infrastructure would fill the hole.
Call it the Recovery After Potential Termination of Useless Resource Environment.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 05:59
#125674
The credit snapshot report on DARPA is very very average. No insight in those repoerts.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 11:54
#125916
I agree. A handful of financial statistics constitutes credit analysis? No schedules of debt maturities, no real analysis of cash flows and their sensitivity to changes in revenues, margins, etc.? No word on covenants, pension obligations, corporate assets pledged as collateral against other debt, etc.? No comparison of spreads versus treasuries to comparables?
I don't get what the audience for credit analysis of individual corporate bonds is supposed to be. Individuals buying corporate bonds need to buy a diversified portfolio of them since the best you can do with a bond is get paid back at par and the worst you can do is lose most or all of your principal. To get competitive pricing on corporate bonds you need to buy them in pretty large quantities and even then you need access to a Bloomberg terminal or some other accurate source of bond pricing to ensure you don't get raped on the price. If you don't have a few million $ to invest in corporate bonds you're probably better off buying a low expense corporate bond mutual fund managed by somebody with a good track record. That's if you even want to buy corporate bonds now given that spreads on investment grade and junk debt are back below where they were prior to the Lehman collapse.
If the audience is hedge funds, the examples of analysis shown don't even begin to scratch the surface. I have never worked in a hedge fund but would think a decent credit analysis has to be at least 10 or 15 pages just to cover the basics, albeit with an executive summary in front.
ZH has been saying the markets are unhooked from the underlying fundamentals (I agree with them) and now they're launching a service that offers fundamental analysis of corporate credit.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 06:05
#125676
Great idea.
How about exposing macro-ideas and long term trends?
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 07:29
#125690
Sometimes you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right"
The Grateful Dead
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 08:00
#125692
There are plenty of ideas for DARPA here:
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2009/05/why-is-small-beautiful.html
If top hedge funds are buying or accumulating a stock, I track it and want to know why.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 11:38
#125884
Is that your blog Leo?
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 20:49
#126672
Yes it is.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 08:39
#125704
I like it.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 08:53
#125710
Far out!
Instead of a Disruptive Technologies Office (DTO) you
can have a Disruptive Discussions Office (DDO) :-)
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 09:12
#125718
so...
zee giant begins to wake
congratulations Tyler et al
- you guys must make some great coffee
good luck
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 09:18
#125719
Stuff like this is exactly why ZH continues to be my most read site. I literally have it opened on my screen at work all day long (and then for a couple hours when I get home). Keep up the great work guys.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 11:48
#125911
+1
I love Tyler (and Marla) like a fat kid loves cake.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 09:22
#125724
wow! so much gloom and doom talk and yet all darpa recom are longs! go figure!
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 09:28
#125729
Good going!
Maybe if you keep it up, you can get invited to the White House for a roast beef sandwich!
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 09:31
#125731
But above all things, truth beareth away the victory.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 09:42
#125735
Anyone else notice the h&s on TLT?
Target 87 ...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p07543723028
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 13:49
#126065
Noticed it, but not sure if it applies here. Havnt seen 87 in well over a year and with current levels of bond inflows I'd put a floor in around 90.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 10:05
#125752
http://ferfal.blogspot.com/
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 10:06
#125753
thank goodness. this is the website that has really educated me .... me, being an older person who until I started reading ZEROHEDGE didn't understand why I was getting poorer & poorer. thank you, TYLER.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 10:08
#125754
I was rejected by VIC back in Jan 07 - I wrote a piece after MBI and RDN announced a merger - and both jumped 6 points on the announcement!
I criticized RDNs chairman who said that unemployment was the prime driver of foreclosures. My argument was that falling prices would cause foreclosures.
After nearly three years perhaps he will be proved correct after all!
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 10:59
#125816
So you are open-sourcing the rating methodology. Excellent goal.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 11:01
#125818
Great! One more location where I can attempt to separate the wheat from the chaff. Thanks for the opportunity to do so where I know both will exist ZH.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 11:24
#125857
The beginning of the end. 10 months is all you could hold out? Revenue models always dictate content. Tyler's tapping out.
Love the stats: monthly by over half a million people? LoL
Please hire more offshore Indian "page views" I wanna see that number jump to one million by December.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 11:43
#125895
Your bearish view is duly noted.
You are right, Tyler mis-spoke on absolute uniques.
We're actually at 505,520 for the last 30 days, so he was a bit low. We're a Technorati top 100 site at this point. We're top 3 in Technorati business. That puts us above Mish, Naked Capitalism, Denninger, The Big Picture, Felix Salmon, Business Insider, Robert Reich's blog (who knew?) and, appropriately, Whitehouse.gov. The fact that it takes less time than an Obama sponsored bankruptcy to figure this out tells everyone you are just a bit lazy with your facts.
As for "Indian page views," you're accusing us publicly of defrauding Google Ad Sense and our other advertisers as well as committing crimes involving theft in excess of $500 and wire fraud. I think you should back that up if you throw it out there, before you get yourself into trouble. Still, we aren't the litigious types so, ironically, it is easier to libel us.
Or maybe you were just making polite conversation.
Don't want to pay for Zero Hedge? Don't. What you knew yesterday as Zero Hedge will continue to be free. Sorry if that's out of your budget.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 13:38
#126055
Sweet pancakes of destiny, Marla! Your smackdowns make me all warm and sticky inside.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 09:04
#126952
Put a fork in him, he's done! Marla, I wish I could've seen you back in the days of playgrounds and bullies.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 14:02
#126078
Are you viewing this site from India? Didn't think so. Marla, let me know if you change your mind and need help with the "legal stuff."
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 11:32
#125874
how long till the feds come in for their cut?
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 12:28
#125963
The tough thing about evaluating credit is even at a credit hedge fund you have no ability to truly calculate EBITDA for covenant purposes before the company releases it. All of the add-backs and other nonsense that gets added back in credit agreements can place the calculated EBITDA and the EBITDA used for covenants multiples apart. Posting the covenants for the debt you profile would be great but at the end of the day even that only does partial good due to the fact that the EBITDA calculation is typically impossible to calculate for debt covenants outside of the CFO and the auditors who fight about it.
Despite this i think it would still be great to have covenants posted for each debt profile.
People who question the number of institutional investors who check this sight should probably think again. Sites like Zero Hedge and Calculated Risk enable investors to stay on top of macro economic information all day long while they concentrate on studying their specific sectors. Until you've been there you can't appreciate how useful these blogs are in terms of saving time.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 13:21
#126030
Agree on add-backsand other nonsense and will post covenants.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 13:21
#126031
Agree on add-backs and other nonsense and will post covenants.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 12:50
#125996
In a time where information is going the way of collaborative and collective, Zerohedge takes it to the Financial Research sphere!
Amazing idea, a truly complementary progression to an already stellar site.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 13:13
#126020
Nice move but I hope you guys aren't about to go corporate on my ass. Just let me know from now if i'm gonna hear Maria or Michelle or Erin announcing that GS is taking you public in Q4 10 or that the WSJ or YHOO just snapped you up for x times adsense earnings. That would break my heart. It really would :(
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 13:17
#126027
Well they say Wikipedia is more accurate than Encyclopedia Brittanica...
This is sort of a "Wikipedia of Credit"
And the rating agencies ain't no Encyclopedia Brittanica...
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 13:18
#126028
I wish this endeavor the utmost success. As noted uberregulator William Black observed, the ratings agencies are the achilles heel of the financial ponzi. Take them down and you not only provide investors a REAL service, but you can deal a solid blow against our kleptocracy. Go DARPA!
Sun Tzu
To achieve an advance that cannot be hampered, rush to his weak points.
William K Black quoted from UCLA Hammer Forum
You don't destroy external controls, you subord them and you turn them into your most valuable allies.
What is the obvious choke point, the obvious achilles heel? The ratings agencies, there're only three of them! Give me 20 good examiners and I could have shut down any of those ratings agencies
That'd be the first question you'd ask: 'OK so what do you do to evaluate credit risk? Obviously you look at a sample of the loan files.'
<WB's hypothetical ratings employee> Long silence...Uh well no actually we don't do that.
<WB> Well then actually you're going to stop business, today.
http://hammer.ucla.edu/watchlisten/watchlisten/show_id/129363
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 13:36
#126053
The truly opportunistic investor professional would post some marginal garbage that she wants to pump and dump. Yes? No?
There's the problem of filtering good information out from the noise if DARPA gets any traction at all. This is a common phenomena on 'user-driven' sites like Digg where advertising disguised as news gets as much viewership as real news.
Is there a plan for mitigating the noise?
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 13:36
#126054
A most excellent move. Keep it coming.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 14:19
#126137
Everyone is trying to cash out quickly- even Zerohedge
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 14:26
#126152
Wow. This is strange and off-topic, but i went to bed last night thinking of the word/acronym DARPA over and over for no good reason. If this is a sign of my prescience, perhaps I should break out of Biotech and into the financial industry. I can dish out all my "good vibes."
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 14:32
#126160
I nice idea in normal times. Not particularly worthwhile until we return to normalcy. but then, when we do return to normalcy, everything will be a buy and no fundamental analysis will be required.
in other words, liquidity has made nothing a buy and everything positively correlated. that is, except the dollar. and, because of that, everything is extremely overvalued being that liquidity is the primary determinant of valuation.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 14:54
#126197
Happy 10th Month ZH and thank you.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 15:56
#126300
GrandSlam! This is one of the best ideas I have ever heard of. How exciting to be on the ground floor of an idea that will change the financial world forever. Congratulations to all of you.
I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, and I won't be laid a hand on. I don't do these things to other people, and I require the same from them.
Books
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 16:15
#126320
GREAT IDEA.
Even though I don't do FI at all and you're limiting the site (for now) to credit, the very IDEA that you are going to "open source" FI ratings to folks with NO SKIN in a VERY CORRUPT GAME is refreshing and very badly needed.
I would, however, like you to make room, even on an occasional basis, for some FOREX, Options, and no-BS PM analysis.
Maybe put Chumbawamba and Cheeky Bastard in charge of this DARPA department.
If the "paid admission" ticket size is reasonable (i.e in line with WSJ or FT which I already pay for), sign me up.
BTW, I have the whole Flotille reading ZH now. Some have even been admitted to the club.
KptLt. laughing swordfish
9er Unterseeboote Flotille.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 19:24
#126586
Chumbawamba?
Be careful what you ask for!
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 16:23
#126337
Excellent stuff, ZH.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 17:23
#126453
Hey:
I'm think this is a very cool idea. I'd like to see something a little lab-ish in DARPA as well.
I'm been thinking through some cap structure arb. Be nice to toss around ideas and learn from others' experience.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 17:59
#126508
By and large so far support....SO> I advise caution. A paid site is fine. There is no free lunch. You have a 'right' to be paid, not because of us but because of you! Now I suggest a bit more research. I have been a charter member of Stratfor. I have used them since 1999, and they have paid for themselves. IT could be a model. There other innovative ways and sites out there. Also, I think when push comes to shove be ready for a lot smaller paying audience over there @ DARPA. It has to be worthwhile to the user. Period. Good luck.
Finally, up front, you are an open tab throughout the day, sometimes it is great and sometimes it is too fringey. Still, nothing is ever lost in the universe. Comments often are pointless- to me. Sorry no offense.
I encourage you to instill the hightest standards when you proceed. Best.
Crazy Hungarian
PS I was a member of the Value Club. Useless.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 19:29
#126591
+1
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 18:20
#126537
May I suggest as an adjunct a finance wiki, for non professionals. Its aim, rather than offering typical investment office, would be to explain the functioning and interconnections (starting with even very basic stuff) of the financial landscape/ecosystem.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 18:24
#126542
Thank you for spreading the truth. ZH is the virtual red pill!
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 18:25
#126545
May I suggest as an adjunct a finance wiki, for non professionals. Its aim, rather than offering typical investment office, would be to explain the functioning and interconnections (starting with even very basic stuff) of the financial landscape/ecosystem.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 18:37
#126554
hmmph! (DARPA, autonomous vehicles?) just got ran off the finance.yahoo message boards(they floated new, untested software) and some peoples "alias" were replaced by their actual email address, eh, leave it to yahoo for shooting themselves in the foot, it's what they do. anyway, came over to the zerohedge forums for a look around. hope some of my old friends from the ACG board can find this place. does anybody here do charts, market talk, strategy, macro or micro views? ok, I'm a little guy trader, just trying to make a buck, well, ok , the occasional political rant, etc.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:20
#126695
Rock On ZH! To my Brothers In Arms on Veterans Day:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vUDmFjWgVo&feature=related
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 23:42
#126804
This is a first ever midweek update.
It takes less than 10 minutes for me to review counts of bullish and bearish charts, but takes quite a bit of time to create the multichart compilation I call Chart of Charts.
After my quick review I decided to publish today, since any unusual event happened today. The 20 Day Moving Average of Bulls and Bears did a crossover today, to the Bearish. Somewhat odd, since today a large number of bear and bull chart both brokeout. However, a prior 20 day ago larger bullish count fell off the moving average, and since the bear average was low, the number of bear breakouts today pushed the average up, thus creating the crossover.
So don't get too all excited for the bearish case. Particularly since the 5DMA and the 10DMA have both outperformed the 20DMA. From memory, the 5DMA had a 58% annualized rate of return on betting the crossovers, and the 10DMA about 52%. The 20DMA, because of the whipsaw nature of the market and in particular a slow reaction to the V bottom in March performed at more like 28%.
The 10DMA still says bear.
Refer to my previous chart a few days prior that has more annotations to help you understand the 3 layer heatmap which is intended to not just provided bear bull signals, but levels of how to scale into and out of bullish to bearish position and vice-versa.
The IHS pattern mentioned last week has been satisfied on it's measured move. All that says is don't expect more upward movement BASED ON the IHS. Other factors will not determine up or down.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/chart-of-chart-midweek-update.html
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 07:23
#126902
Am i missing something, or this hasn't been quite covered anywhere?
Ambac, MBIA Tumble as Losses May Overwhelm Bond Insurers
Ambac Financial Group Inc. and MBIA Inc., the two largest bond insurers, tumbled on concerns they won’t survive the U.S. housing rout without government intervention or the companies filing for bankruptcy protection.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aTa0FPYNOGPs
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 08:45
#126937
All that I can say is "kudos" to ZH, TD, MS and all contributors and to the posters....it has been a pleasure being with you since the "old" blogspot days....keep the torch burning.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 20:08
#127832
on the final zero hedge blogger post, I tried to add a comment stating "on a long enough timeline, zero hedge becomes a product". it was promptly removed.
I guess I should have noted that I'm a proud owner of one of the "zero intelligence" t-shirts and donated cash way back when TD listed the donors at the end of the week.
I fully support zero hedge offering premium content. anything allowing the team to dedicate more time and energy to the site is a good thing...
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 08:26
#128313
Ma darlink Darpa...vous m'amais, n'est-ce pas? Quelle autre bonne heure me suise, je jamais propose!
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 12:37
#128640
http://adam-daytrader.blogspot.com/
free daytrading tips,daily!subscribe on kindle for $0.99
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 14:09
#128778
Hopefully his conforms to the DARPA rules:
I am a member of a prestigious private club that has a performing mid 7 figure loan with one of the large major banks (one that is prominently considered a zombie, aren't they all?). The bank just recently ordered an appraisal that shows the club underwater.
I know that all the major banks are in desperate need for cash. I am trying to find a lender to offer to buy the loan from the bank at a discount, thus significantly reducing the balance to the club and providing the new lender a return commensurate with risk.
New lender will have to lead the negotiations with the major bank to secure the requisite LTV. Message to bank from lender: “We understand you have a problem, can we help?”
The exit for the lender is a refi in a year or two, or three, with a local bank when credit markets are more ‘normal’.
Contact VA Voter
Safe initial contact email: ed8832@yahoo.com (please reply on ZH to check email)
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 23:19
#129375
I just realised DARPA is an anagram for PRADA. Nice.
on Thu, 11/19/2009 - 17:17
#136412
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/30-year-gap-study-and-some-polit...
30 years of gap study, and a concise political rant.
Stop by, please leave some comments.
on Sun, 11/22/2009 - 04:44
#138617
Chart of Charts 112109 -- Slam Down Bearish<br>5 and 20 day moving average crossovers say bearish. The market has had it's way with the 10 day for months, so it's bullish call is questionable.<br><br>Puts are going to get incredibly expensive soon....if you want them, get them now. <br><br>Black Swans do not drift in, they are delivered by a cruise missile in the middle of the night or on the weekend.<br><br>You cannot "Conquer the Crash" in a weekend, you need to be planning and acting for months. If you haven't started it may be too late, but still--- START! <br><br><a href="http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/chart-of-charts-112109-slam-down.html" rel="nofollow">http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/chart-o...</a>