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Introducing DARPA
Dear Readers,
Today is Zero Hedge's ten month anniversary. What started off as an experiment in focused distributed content has become a site which has clocked over 30 million hits, has over five hundred thousand recurring monthly readers, and touches on virtually every aspect of economics, finance and capital markets. Having some modest influence on broader policy through our objective and systematic unmasking of complex "behind the scenes" issues has been merely frosting on the cake for us, as well as some degree of validation that our pursuit of the unvarnished truth is the right approach. We are happy that we now have the support of over 50 contributors (and many more waiting to be unleashed) as we grow and as topics we could never hope to cover alone but deserving of a detailed examination appear.
If we have learned one thing in these ten months, is that the old "soapbox" media model is dead. The future belongs exclusively to distributed content, where constant reader feedback is critical to fine-tuning and expanding any given theme or topic. This realization is why we are happy to present to you our latest product: the Distributed Analysis and Research Portfolio Aggregator page, or “DARPA.”
For many of you DARPA will not be a novel idea: leveraging on the concept developed originally by the somewhat secretive Value Investor Club, if not its various and less-secret offshoots. We will provide a platform where anyone and everyone will be able to present sophisticated, bottom-up, fundamentally driven theses, analyses and write-ups, in very much the same way that traditional analysts present research ideas. While the focus at present is predominantly on credit ideas, the modular interface permits virtually any product to be presented as an investment idea, including equity, convert, cash and derivative credit, preferred, stub and merger arb. However, where Zero Hedge will differ materially from the prevailing trope of secretive investment clubs that limit author participation to 250 or so members annually. Zero Hedge will have no such limitations. In fact, we hope to make DARPA the most democratic, distributed, open research platform available, and eventually convert it to a fully-blown untethered "ratings agency" where content is provided exclusively by readers, and, more importantly, evaluated, and commented on exclusively by readers. Each research piece will be rated purely on its merit by other DAPRA members, with the top research pieces and top authors prominently featured.
As noted, Zero Hedge is read monthly by over half a million people. Of these, about 30% originate from major financial institutions: investment banks, traditional asset managers, hedge funds, and others. Therefore the attraction of a DAPRA concept will be twofold:
i) to share one's top ideas with the key decision-makers of the financial community, and
ii) to have one's analytical talents noticed by the key portfolio managers. Expanding on this idea, we will soon develop a "marketplace" for research ideas, where research requests can be targeted to specific authors, and where DARPA analysts with established reputations can offer their analytical services to assorted portfolio managers.
Once we have a sizable cadre of DARPA members, we will streamline the rolodex and open it up to consultancy requests by asset managers for any of the thousands of registered Zero Hedge users who have proven their analytical skills on DARPA.
In essence, we have two main goals with DARPA:
i) to make obsolete the traditional rating agency model, by replacing it with a fully distributed, peer-rated, democratic research platform, and
ii) to provide an a la carte analyst/portfolio manager/trader talent retention service. If, for example, fund manager X wants a research write up on any number of ideas in, i.e., the energy space, DARPA will provide an existing inventory of top rated energy industry contributors. Such retention could be either temporary, in the form of a consultancy agreement, or permanent, as a full-time hire.
We are confident that the over ten thousand unemployed hedge fund workers who are currently presenting their various investment theses (if their headhunters deign so) to money managers who use the recruiting process merely to "fish" for ideas, will be very happy to present their ideas to DARPA, and the over 100,000 dedicated professional asset management executives and decision makers who read Zero Hedge hourly.
As part of DARPA, it gives us great pleasure to present to you nearly 1,000 full credit tearsheets developed in collaboration with our partners at High Yield Blog. By presenting detailed, in-depth quantitative financial information, usually reserved for clients of much more expensive databases, these reports will facilitate much of the distributed analysis presented on Zero Hedge, as well as a serve as a quick reference on virtually any 'on the run' global High Yield name for the convenience of our fixed income-focused readers. And as the representative universe consists of both American and European companies, our readers on both sides of the Atlantic will find this a most useful service.
Zero Hedge is also in discussions with several strategic partners with whom we hope to provide even more core research content as we build out DARPA into what we hope becomes the "go to" portal for not just objective, sophisticated credit analysis, but for distributed, comprehensive, unbiased research across all product classes.
We will run the DARPA service for free during its initial beta test. Subsequently, eventually a modest fee will be assessed, although authors of the top 20% highest rated ideas will have free access to the site. As for broader access to Zero Hedge, we are committed to maintaining free access the blog in its current format. Though we may launch certain add-on premium services in the future, what you see on the blog today will continue, free of charge.
And as any service is only as good as its content, we hope that our readers will immediately realize the benefits of presenting their sophisticated research ideas to the platform that addresses the broadest range of finance professionals. Therefore, any registered Zero Hedge member who wishes to be able to submit content to DARPA on an ongoing basis should contact darpa@zerohedge.com with an attached representative sample or submission proposal.
We hope that DARPA will be useful to not just our professional financial followers, but will serve to educate, enlighten and reach our entire readership.
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wow! so much gloom and doom talk and yet all darpa recom are longs! go figure!
Good going!
Maybe if you keep it up, you can get invited to the White House for a roast beef sandwich!
But above all things, truth beareth away the victory.
Anyone else notice the h&s on TLT?
Target 87 ...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p07543723028
Noticed it, but not sure if it applies here. Havnt seen 87 in well over a year and with current levels of bond inflows I'd put a floor in around 90.
http://ferfal.blogspot.com/
thank goodness. this is the website that has really educated me .... me, being an older person who until I started reading ZEROHEDGE didn't understand why I was getting poorer & poorer. thank you, TYLER.
I was rejected by VIC back in Jan 07 - I wrote a piece after MBI and RDN announced a merger - and both jumped 6 points on the announcement!
I criticized RDNs chairman who said that unemployment was the prime driver of foreclosures. My argument was that falling prices would cause foreclosures.
After nearly three years perhaps he will be proved correct after all!
So you are open-sourcing the rating methodology. Excellent goal.
Great! One more location where I can attempt to separate the wheat from the chaff. Thanks for the opportunity to do so where I know both will exist ZH.
The beginning of the end. 10 months is all you could hold out? Revenue models always dictate content. Tyler's tapping out.
Love the stats: monthly by over half a million people? LoL
Please hire more offshore Indian "page views" I wanna see that number jump to one million by December.
Your bearish view is duly noted.
You are right, Tyler mis-spoke on absolute uniques.
We're actually at 505,520 for the last 30 days, so he was a bit low. We're a Technorati top 100 site at this point. We're top 3 in Technorati business. That puts us above Mish, Naked Capitalism, Denninger, The Big Picture, Felix Salmon, Business Insider, Robert Reich's blog (who knew?) and, appropriately, Whitehouse.gov. The fact that it takes less time than an Obama sponsored bankruptcy to figure this out tells everyone you are just a bit lazy with your facts.
As for "Indian page views," you're accusing us publicly of defrauding Google Ad Sense and our other advertisers as well as committing crimes involving theft in excess of $500 and wire fraud. I think you should back that up if you throw it out there, before you get yourself into trouble. Still, we aren't the litigious types so, ironically, it is easier to libel us.
Or maybe you were just making polite conversation.
Don't want to pay for Zero Hedge? Don't. What you knew yesterday as Zero Hedge will continue to be free. Sorry if that's out of your budget.
Sweet pancakes of destiny, Marla! Your smackdowns make me all warm and sticky inside.
Put a fork in him, he's done! Marla, I wish I could've seen you back in the days of playgrounds and bullies.
Are you viewing this site from India? Didn't think so. Marla, let me know if you change your mind and need help with the "legal stuff."
how long till the feds come in for their cut?
The tough thing about evaluating credit is even at a credit hedge fund you have no ability to truly calculate EBITDA for covenant purposes before the company releases it. All of the add-backs and other nonsense that gets added back in credit agreements can place the calculated EBITDA and the EBITDA used for covenants multiples apart. Posting the covenants for the debt you profile would be great but at the end of the day even that only does partial good due to the fact that the EBITDA calculation is typically impossible to calculate for debt covenants outside of the CFO and the auditors who fight about it.
Despite this i think it would still be great to have covenants posted for each debt profile.
People who question the number of institutional investors who check this sight should probably think again. Sites like Zero Hedge and Calculated Risk enable investors to stay on top of macro economic information all day long while they concentrate on studying their specific sectors. Until you've been there you can't appreciate how useful these blogs are in terms of saving time.
Agree on add-backsand other nonsense and will post covenants.
Agree on add-backs and other nonsense and will post covenants.
In a time where information is going the way of collaborative and collective, Zerohedge takes it to the Financial Research sphere!
Amazing idea, a truly complementary progression to an already stellar site.
Nice move but I hope you guys aren't about to go corporate on my ass. Just let me know from now if i'm gonna hear Maria or Michelle or Erin announcing that GS is taking you public in Q4 10 or that the WSJ or YHOO just snapped you up for x times adsense earnings. That would break my heart. It really would :(
Well they say Wikipedia is more accurate than Encyclopedia Brittanica...
This is sort of a "Wikipedia of Credit"
And the rating agencies ain't no Encyclopedia Brittanica...
I wish this endeavor the utmost success. As noted uberregulator William Black observed, the ratings agencies are the achilles heel of the financial ponzi. Take them down and you not only provide investors a REAL service, but you can deal a solid blow against our kleptocracy. Go DARPA!
Sun Tzu
To achieve an advance that cannot be hampered, rush to his weak points.
William K Black quoted from UCLA Hammer Forum
You don't destroy external controls, you subord them and you turn them into your most valuable allies.
What is the obvious choke point, the obvious achilles heel? The ratings agencies, there're only three of them! Give me 20 good examiners and I could have shut down any of those ratings agencies
That'd be the first question you'd ask: 'OK so what do you do to evaluate credit risk? Obviously you look at a sample of the loan files.'
<WB's hypothetical ratings employee> Long silence...Uh well no actually we don't do that.
<WB> Well then actually you're going to stop business, today.
http://hammer.ucla.edu/watchlisten/watchlisten/show_id/129363
The truly opportunistic investor professional would post some marginal garbage that she wants to pump and dump. Yes? No?
There's the problem of filtering good information out from the noise if DARPA gets any traction at all. This is a common phenomena on 'user-driven' sites like Digg where advertising disguised as news gets as much viewership as real news.
Is there a plan for mitigating the noise?
A most excellent move. Keep it coming.
Everyone is trying to cash out quickly- even Zerohedge
Wow. This is strange and off-topic, but i went to bed last night thinking of the word/acronym DARPA over and over for no good reason. If this is a sign of my prescience, perhaps I should break out of Biotech and into the financial industry. I can dish out all my "good vibes."
I nice idea in normal times. Not particularly worthwhile until we return to normalcy. but then, when we do return to normalcy, everything will be a buy and no fundamental analysis will be required.
in other words, liquidity has made nothing a buy and everything positively correlated. that is, except the dollar. and, because of that, everything is extremely overvalued being that liquidity is the primary determinant of valuation.
Happy 10th Month ZH and thank you.
GrandSlam! This is one of the best ideas I have ever heard of. How exciting to be on the ground floor of an idea that will change the financial world forever. Congratulations to all of you.
I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, and I won't be laid a hand on. I don't do these things to other people, and I require the same from them.
Books
GREAT IDEA.
Even though I don't do FI at all and you're limiting the site (for now) to credit, the very IDEA that you are going to "open source" FI ratings to folks with NO SKIN in a VERY CORRUPT GAME is refreshing and very badly needed.
I would, however, like you to make room, even on an occasional basis, for some FOREX, Options, and no-BS PM analysis.
Maybe put Chumbawamba and Cheeky Bastard in charge of this DARPA department.
If the "paid admission" ticket size is reasonable (i.e in line with WSJ or FT which I already pay for), sign me up.
BTW, I have the whole Flotille reading ZH now. Some have even been admitted to the club.
KptLt. laughing swordfish
9er Unterseeboote Flotille.
Chumbawamba?
Be careful what you ask for!
Excellent stuff, ZH.
Hey:
I'm think this is a very cool idea. I'd like to see something a little lab-ish in DARPA as well.
I'm been thinking through some cap structure arb. Be nice to toss around ideas and learn from others' experience.
By and large so far support....SO> I advise caution. A paid site is fine. There is no free lunch. You have a 'right' to be paid, not because of us but because of you! Now I suggest a bit more research. I have been a charter member of Stratfor. I have used them since 1999, and they have paid for themselves. IT could be a model. There other innovative ways and sites out there. Also, I think when push comes to shove be ready for a lot smaller paying audience over there @ DARPA. It has to be worthwhile to the user. Period. Good luck.
Finally, up front, you are an open tab throughout the day, sometimes it is great and sometimes it is too fringey. Still, nothing is ever lost in the universe. Comments often are pointless- to me. Sorry no offense.
I encourage you to instill the hightest standards when you proceed. Best.
Crazy Hungarian
PS I was a member of the Value Club. Useless.
+1
May I suggest as an adjunct a finance wiki, for non professionals. Its aim, rather than offering typical investment office, would be to explain the functioning and interconnections (starting with even very basic stuff) of the financial landscape/ecosystem.
Thank you for spreading the truth. ZH is the virtual red pill!
May I suggest as an adjunct a finance wiki, for non professionals. Its aim, rather than offering typical investment office, would be to explain the functioning and interconnections (starting with even very basic stuff) of the financial landscape/ecosystem.
hmmph! (DARPA, autonomous vehicles?) just got ran off the finance.yahoo message boards(they floated new, untested software) and some peoples "alias" were replaced by their actual email address, eh, leave it to yahoo for shooting themselves in the foot, it's what they do. anyway, came over to the zerohedge forums for a look around. hope some of my old friends from the ACG board can find this place. does anybody here do charts, market talk, strategy, macro or micro views? ok, I'm a little guy trader, just trying to make a buck, well, ok , the occasional political rant, etc.
Rock On ZH! To my Brothers In Arms on Veterans Day:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vUDmFjWgVo&feature=related
This is a first ever midweek update.
It takes less than 10 minutes for me to review counts of bullish and bearish charts, but takes quite a bit of time to create the multichart compilation I call Chart of Charts.
After my quick review I decided to publish today, since any unusual event happened today. The 20 Day Moving Average of Bulls and Bears did a crossover today, to the Bearish. Somewhat odd, since today a large number of bear and bull chart both brokeout. However, a prior 20 day ago larger bullish count fell off the moving average, and since the bear average was low, the number of bear breakouts today pushed the average up, thus creating the crossover.
So don't get too all excited for the bearish case. Particularly since the 5DMA and the 10DMA have both outperformed the 20DMA. From memory, the 5DMA had a 58% annualized rate of return on betting the crossovers, and the 10DMA about 52%. The 20DMA, because of the whipsaw nature of the market and in particular a slow reaction to the V bottom in March performed at more like 28%.
The 10DMA still says bear.
Refer to my previous chart a few days prior that has more annotations to help you understand the 3 layer heatmap which is intended to not just provided bear bull signals, but levels of how to scale into and out of bullish to bearish position and vice-versa.
The IHS pattern mentioned last week has been satisfied on it's measured move. All that says is don't expect more upward movement BASED ON the IHS. Other factors will not determine up or down.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/chart-of-chart-midweek-update.html
Am i missing something, or this hasn't been quite covered anywhere?
Ambac, MBIA Tumble as Losses May Overwhelm Bond Insurers
Ambac Financial Group Inc. and MBIA Inc., the two largest bond insurers, tumbled on concerns they won’t survive the U.S. housing rout without government intervention or the companies filing for bankruptcy protection.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aTa0FPYNOGPs
All that I can say is "kudos" to ZH, TD, MS and all contributors and to the posters....it has been a pleasure being with you since the "old" blogspot days....keep the torch burning.
on the final zero hedge blogger post, I tried to add a comment stating "on a long enough timeline, zero hedge becomes a product". it was promptly removed.
I guess I should have noted that I'm a proud owner of one of the "zero intelligence" t-shirts and donated cash way back when TD listed the donors at the end of the week.
I fully support zero hedge offering premium content. anything allowing the team to dedicate more time and energy to the site is a good thing...
Ma darlink Darpa...vous m'amais, n'est-ce pas? Quelle autre bonne heure me suise, je jamais propose!
http://adam-daytrader.blogspot.com/
free daytrading tips,daily!subscribe on kindle for $0.99
Hopefully his conforms to the DARPA rules:
I am a member of a prestigious private club that has a performing mid 7 figure loan with one of the large major banks (one that is prominently considered a zombie, aren't they all?). The bank just recently ordered an appraisal that shows the club underwater.
I know that all the major banks are in desperate need for cash. I am trying to find a lender to offer to buy the loan from the bank at a discount, thus significantly reducing the balance to the club and providing the new lender a return commensurate with risk.
New lender will have to lead the negotiations with the major bank to secure the requisite LTV. Message to bank from lender: “We understand you have a problem, can we help?”
The exit for the lender is a refi in a year or two, or three, with a local bank when credit markets are more ‘normal’.
Contact VA Voter
Safe initial contact email: ed8832@yahoo.com (please reply on ZH to check email)
I just realised DARPA is an anagram for PRADA. Nice.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/30-year-gap-study-and-some-polit...
30 years of gap study, and a concise political rant.
Stop by, please leave some comments.
Chart of Charts 112109 -- Slam Down Bearish<br>5 and 20 day moving average crossovers say bearish. The market has had it's way with the 10 day for months, so it's bullish call is questionable.<br><br>Puts are going to get incredibly expensive soon....if you want them, get them now. <br><br>Black Swans do not drift in, they are delivered by a cruise missile in the middle of the night or on the weekend.<br><br>You cannot "Conquer the Crash" in a weekend, you need to be planning and acting for months. If you haven't started it may be too late, but still--- START! <br><br><a href="http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/chart-of-charts-112109-slam-down..." rel="nofollow">http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/chart-o...</a>
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