Inventory Glut Of Ultra Luxury Homes Hits Greenwich, Over 4 Years Of Supply

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Mon, 07/04/2011 - 13:42 | 1424664 williambanzai7
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Let the unwater hedgies beg JP Dimon for a mortgage freebie.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:08 | 1424750 Xibalba
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too bad prices won't come down to affordable levels....

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 19:30 | 1425294 Fred Hayek
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Oh, but they will. Or, at least, they'll start to drop.

Over at the Dr. Housing Bubble site he's had a few different articles which showed that in SoCal (and, I'm sure, elsewhere)recent history has been that a total slowdown of sales is followed by a drop in prices. Sellers don't want to sell for less but finally resign themselves to the fact that they have to and prices plunge.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 13:46 | 1424677 PulauHantu29
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No one wants to buy when:

1. house prices will continue to plunge for 10-15 more years; and

2. renting is incredibly cheap.

Why buy a loser asset like a house now...when there is 100% it will be cheaper next year...and the next..and the next....

Even Wall Streeters understand we are in a 16-18 year Bear Market for RE...read history.,....it often repeats itself.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:03 | 1424735 max2205
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Renting is outrageous in major cities except Vegas and Phoenix. Don't be fooled by that metric.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:16 | 1424768 mayhem_korner
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If you think of a house as an asset, you will be forever at the mercy of a landlord.  Land has intrinsic value, even if it doesn't provide a financial return.  If you are locked into a low debt service, and also own real property and PMs, it just might be that you can clear the asset of all liens when the collapse happens.

I like that better than defending a cubicle in someone else's real property.

Just food for thought.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 16:01 | 1424982 sun tzu
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You're also tied to the land and have to pay RE taxes until you die then your heirs have to pay taxes

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 21:42 | 1425468 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

 

Thanks for the heads-up, gypsy joker. Apres moi, more death, taxes, and death. Try and put a little life in that there sun tzoo too!

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:22 | 1424778 Ripped Chunk
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Lookout Below !!!!

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:38 | 1424813 oldmanofthesee
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Not to be disagreeable, but the bear market in real estate occurs every 18 years. It doesn't necessarily last 18. That being said, I think we face a long, slow climb from this economic abyss.

Many of the lost jobs are never coming back, 'cause we didn't need a lot of those bullshit people who don't produce anything. Best solution is isolationism. Big tariffs on all imports, and rebuild the manufacturing sector. Just sayin'.

 

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 18:04 | 1425172 Fanakapan
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Yeah give it the old Smoot Hawley treatment, you never know it might work better this time than the last :)

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 19:19 | 1425284 sun tzu
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Is there any proof that Smoot-Hawley caused the Great Depression to worsen? Tariffs worked fine since the founding of the country

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 19:40 | 1425306 Fanakapan
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Up until 1860 ish and your Civil War, tariffs would have served the USA ill, still being a mainly pastorial nation, the USA had to import a goodly percentage of durable goods ?   As for Smoot Hawley, it probably did precisely nothing much, apart that is, from preventing Americans from spending the money they did not have on imported goods. and its as well to remember that the economic picture in the US stayed persistantly Bad right up to the time that Herr Hitler kicked off, improving dramatically as America became the Arsenal of Democracy :) 

 

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 13:46 | 1424683 Careless Whisper
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Flip that mansion? NOT

NEW YORK -- A Greenwich mansion once owned by the late hotel and real estate magnates Harry and  Leona Helmsley has been put up for sale by its current owner, who is asking $42.9 million for the 40-acre estate less than a year after buying it for $35 million.

http://www.greenwichtime.com/news/article/Former-Helmsley-mansion-in-Greenwich-back-on-1433445.php#ixzz1R9y6se6w
Mon, 07/04/2011 - 15:40 | 1424945 hbjork1
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The Helmsley is one to track.  Asking and final sales price may be very different.  $35 sounds much more attractive than $40+.

 

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 16:05 | 1424990 sun tzu
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I wonder if the realtor still gets 6% on that sale. They can retire after selling that one

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 13:47 | 1424688 Doyle Hargraves
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Strategic Default Bitchez!!!

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:23 | 1424785 Ripped Chunk
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That Doyle been drinkin' again and gettin' mean, Uh hu

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 15:19 | 1424903 toady
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that was beautiful

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 13:48 | 1424689 Rainman
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The uber-rich silverheads better list now if they expect to be dead in 4 years.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 13:54 | 1424712 buzzsaw99
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Calpers will buy them!

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:02 | 1424734 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Japan's pension fund will buy them!

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 00:46 | 1425826 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 KAMPO? I doubt that. JGB's are not the ticket.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 13:54 | 1424713 buzzsaw99
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GOOG will buy them!

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:03 | 1424737 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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China will buy them!

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:13 | 1424760 buzzsaw99
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Norway teacher's pension fund will buy them via gollum sachs!

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 15:39 | 1424942 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Bernanke will buy them via Goldman Sachs!

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:00 | 1424729 Zero Govt
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heard last year US Banks were keeping all $1m plus homes on their books, under 2% were being released back onto the market for sale, it's a mad, mad, mad world this property lark!!

Presumably this is stop the top end glut from compressing prices in price ranges below. But how long can this (un-reality) continue? If it's for accountancy gimicks to keep asset values high on balance sheets then it's a false God, and un-lived in homes despreciate even faster without use 

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:06 | 1424744 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

it's how it always begins.

The rot is visible at the top and bottom first.

Think baldness and limpness! ;-)

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/07/04/a-year-and-a-day-later/

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 08:47 | 1426206 lilimarlene1
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You are very smart. So smart, I don't think I can handle it. Each paragraph on aadivaahan is a compression of so many ideas, it's a headache. A good headache. Like when you are reading Shakespeare and then suddenly it's not just inky kerned words on a page but ideas and rhythym and poetry.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:11 | 1424752 mayhem_korner
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At the end of 2011 we had over 3 years of supply in the $5,000,000 to $10,000,000 market for single family homes.

A pipe dream in print...none of the homes in this range will be in that range in 3 years.  What you really have is a cut-throat, 3-6 month window to offload that inventory to the Bigger Fool before the floor drops out.

An interesting phenomenon to watch in these uber-expensive real estate "markets" is what happens to the tax assessments.  It's like the paper-physical PM in reverse.  The (paper)assessments keep rising against falling real values.  It's one of the last "bag holders" of the real estate bubble.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:25 | 1424789 Leo Kolivakis
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And wait till the next crisis, redemptions will hit hedgies hard and they won't be able to offload their McMansions fast enough...

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:26 | 1424791 ATG
ATG's picture

Maybe they're moving to buy at Martis Camp, with 60 lots sold at an average of $850 K and custom homes built for $1.7 M and up...

http://www.martiscamp.com/

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:42 | 1424824 RobotTrader
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Most hedge funds have way underperformed the S & P 500 because too many have tried to short stocks on every piece of bad news.

Unfortunately, they underestimated the power of the first "buy and hold" market in 15 years.

I myself have fallen prey to this phenomenon, if I had only bought a huge basket of stocks and held without doing any trading, I would have done much better.

But I'm not complaining, I'm still way up over where my account was 2 years ago.

Way too many hedgies have gotten destroyed by shorting because they are paying too much attention to fundamentals.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:44 | 1424831 oldmanofthesee
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Yeah, you're right, RT.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 15:10 | 1424883 oldman
oldman's picture

RT,

Buy and hold is the old do-nothing game

you are probably one of the few 'traders' I have ever read admit that doing-nothing was one way of getting something done.

It has been the experience of many traders including this oldman

thanks

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 15:42 | 1424949 High Plains Drifter
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or he could have used a dart board with stock names on it.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 16:37 | 1425051 trav7777
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buying the most bankrupt stocks since mar 09 has produced the greatest returns.  The worse the shape, the more the hype, the closer to being tits up, the bigger the gains.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:47 | 1424845 macholatte
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test

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 14:50 | 1424850 KennyG09
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icles.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 20:57 | 1425398 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

:)  chuckle 

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 15:22 | 1424909 snowball777
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If you're gonna squat....squat in style.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 23:25 | 1425712 Incubus
Incubus's picture

with a spotter...

 

....and high heels.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 23:43 | 1425744 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  You just gave me a {HERNIA}   I can't stop laughing. 777 led you into the "quote"

 

      He gets props as well.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 15:27 | 1424918 JustACitizen
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Nothing says America like 16,000 square feet of future property tax liability that you bought to demonstrate what an outstanding financial mind you possess...

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 15:42 | 1424953 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Yep. I read a similar article recently about foreclosures of high end homes like these. Most were previously owned by celebrities, sports stars and real estate brokers (go figure). I wouldn’t be surprised to see more financial types eventually joining the group. Historically, top end homes have been abysmal investments for their owners. They often have a “white elephant” character and a tendency to fall down before they trickle down. But wouldn’t you know it, every time you open the real estate section of the newspaper they’re showcasing one of these for the average Joe to dream of owning one day.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 15:32 | 1424928 Dre4dwolf
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Rich people selling their homes and moving out of the country.

No one buying because of deflation in the housing market that will set home prices to pre-2001 levels.

 

What else is new?

 

Wait 4 years and buy these homes dirt cheap when the new currency is pushed in.

 

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 15:41 | 1424947 High Plains Drifter
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When one buys these homes at  cheap prices, are the property taxes refective of these lower home prices?  If I ever bought another house, it would have to be my personal property , free from any liens by the state or any property taxes. Otherwise forget it..........

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 16:57 | 1425083 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

no the corrupt local governments tell you , you cant base it on short sales or foreclosure purchases, only on comparable full priced home sales (which are hard to find to even compare) so the whole property tax scam continues onward

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 08:04 | 1426167 Bitch Tits
Bitch Tits's picture

Interestingly enough, "full-priced" home sales in Florida are going for about the same money as short sales or foreclosures. Reality is that you have to beat the competition if you want to sell.

Having said that, our property taxes have increased every year, with the exception being 2009, when we got a (very) small break - as a concession due to the economy?

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