Investor Sentiment: Are We There Yet?

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Mon, 02/08/2010 - 10:34 | 222068 godfader
godfader's picture

How would these sentiment stats that Lerner is using have looked in 1991/92 or 94/95 or 98/99? Looking at just the last few years may be misleading.

Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:02 | 222396 thetechnicaltake
thetechnicaltake's picture

I have plenty of links at thetechnicaltake blog....just use the search feature and type in "investor sentiment".

 

Start with this link.

Mon, 02/08/2010 - 14:33 | 222314 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

or 1893!

Mon, 02/08/2010 - 10:16 | 222046 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Your references to "smart" and "dumb" money are misguided. While that dichotomy might have had some validity years ago, not anymore. The driver of the market, now, are the PPT banks. The primary dealers of the Federal Reserve receive hundreds of billions in perpetually renewable supposed "loans", which are non-recourse, and for which they pay nearly zero percent interest. The collateral they post is toxic, and actually worth nothing, but the Fed pays top dollar for it, so long as the dealers agree to pump the market. Last Friday's last hour pump was an example of the PPT at work. In addition, money is flowing in from simple money printing with the monetization of agency bonds.

Mon, 02/08/2010 - 10:16 | 222045 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Your references to "smart" and "dumb" money are misguided. While that dichotomy might have had some validity years ago, not anymore. The driver of the market, now, are the PPT banks. The primary dealers of the Federal Reserve receive hundreds of billions in perpetually renewable supposed "loans", which are non-recourse, and for which they pay nearly zero percent interest. The collateral they post is toxic, and actually worth nothing, but the Fed pays top dollar for it, so long as the dealers agree to pump the market. Last Friday's last hour pump was an example of the PPT at work. In addition, money is flowing in from simple money printing with the monetization of agency bonds.

Mon, 02/08/2010 - 10:09 | 222038 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I cant read the right hand side of any of these charts 'cuz the formatting on the right hand side of the page trumps

Mon, 02/08/2010 - 05:56 | 221952 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

would you check out this rydex nova ursa chart and tell me why you have so drastically different results. this one is in ultra bearish territory hence bullish from a contrarinan view

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/cfxtemp/CFT0208_045112293.jpg

Mon, 02/08/2010 - 01:41 | 221852 Bear
Bear's picture

Investors will always remain bullish until they become bearish

Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:18 | 222416 RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

Well spoken old wise one.

Mon, 02/08/2010 - 01:25 | 221836 JR
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No Job Growth for Small Business Spurs Recovery Doubt

Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Small businesses are becoming the Achilles heel of the U.S. recovery by limiting growth and job creation.

Companies with fewer than 500 employees, such as Phoenix Technologies Ltd, and Sonic Corp, helped lead the economy out of the four recessions since 1980. This time, they continue to cut capital spending and dismiss workers, eliminating 3,000 jobs in January, according to Roseland, New Jersey-based Automatic Data Processing Inc., the world’s largest payroll processor.

Improvement in the unemployment rate, which fell to 9.7 in January from 10 percent in December, may stall later this year if these firms aren’t hiring, and growth likely won’t meet the median 2.7 percent annual rate forecast for 2010 by 67 economists in a Jan. 14 Bloomberg News survey.

“Will you have a sustainable recovery a few years down the road without getting some small-business spending? No,” Cary Leahey, senior managing director at Decision Economics Inc. in New York and a former White House economist, said in an interview. “Wall Street gets it.” …

The National Federation of Independent Business’s index of small-business optimism has been near historic lows for 15 consecutive months, declining to 88 in December from 88.3 in November, the federation reported Jan. 12. During the four prior recessions, it dipped below 90 only once…

Because few economic reports capture small-business statistics, some economists say investors are being misled about the strength of recovery from the longest, deepest recession since the Great Depression.

Recent numbers suggest “the official data are too heavily weighted towards bigger companies, which are doing better than credit-constrained smaller firms,” said Ian Sheperdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics Ltd. in Valhalla, New York. “The latter employ half the workforce.” …

The nation’s monthly payroll figures are inflated because the Labor Department model that estimates small-business hiring has overstated the number of jobs added during the recession, Shepherdson says.

According to the model, small companies created an average of 113,000 jobs a month from February through December -- a period when total employment fell by a nonseasonally adjusted 3.7 million, Labor Department statistics show.

The model “is creating jobs out of thin air that are not actually being generated,” Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc., an economic-consulting firm in New York, said in a Feb. 4 note to clients…

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apZULWyXpqhE&pos=7

Mon, 02/08/2010 - 14:32 | 222311 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If I was economist in Valhalla I'd be???
Where does Joe the plumber stand on all this?

Mon, 02/08/2010 - 00:09 | 221770 Chopshop
Chopshop's picture

if 'you' lack 'sufficient' methodologies, then yes, "the sentiment indicators are bullish".  if you have 'sufficient' methodologies & appropriate experience, then no, the "sentiment indicators" are not bullish.  rather, they are extremely bearish.  they are off-the-f'ing-charts bearish.  they are screaming bloody murder to any passer-by.  i, for one, am indeed heeding their import, which is anything but bullish.

if 'you' must 'use' "sentiment indicators" then at least employ the DSI and COT etc., instead of consumer confidence-type eh, lagging, coincidental and wholly non-quantifiably robust, first derivative measures of segmented confidence. 

where does mr. mkt currently stand ?  on the ledge; at the precipice of jumping out a window to his death ... hence, classic wave 2 (triple zigzag) behavior within social mood and 'everyone's' read on 'the new bull' (hah). 

in a few months those proclaiming bull / buy today will be bloody, beaten and a whole lot less bold in their proclamations.  while of little to no use to traders, sentiment indicators are extremely valuable to investors of all stripes and are just about the only thing that can help shed light on uber-pivotal junctures (such as where global mkts collectively stand today ... on the precipice, about to follow wayne's words out the window.

Mon, 02/08/2010 - 01:14 | 221823 thetechnicaltake
thetechnicaltake's picture

Chop: I don't know what DSI is but COT is very erratic

Once again, I have presented 4 different looks at investor sentiment; not one is indicator is giving a bull signal

 

 

Sun, 02/07/2010 - 22:24 | 221677 Windemup
Windemup's picture

10 Start

20 lprint "Are We There Yet?"

30 goto 20

40 end

 

Mon, 02/08/2010 - 12:14 | 222160 Windemup
Windemup's picture

Yea, but you gotta love the sound it makes when it comes in over your AM radio.

Sun, 02/07/2010 - 23:20 | 221722 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If you don't want your BASIC program to print to the 9-pin dot matrix, just do

20 print "Are We There Yet?"

and it will print to your green-screen CRT. :)

I knew learning BASIC in the 80's would pay off!!!

Sun, 02/07/2010 - 19:56 | 221564 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Frankly,it is not about smart and dumb money anymore. It is all about the Eur/Dxy. I think any smart money should be trading the latter instead of the former. At least in the latter there is no MM who decides what your asset value should be at. I think the only real change for the stock market that might save investment is to change it into a fores like market,albeit without leverage. This way no MMs around to decide where and when to pump or dump the stocks...

Sun, 02/07/2010 - 20:51 | 221609 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

#221564,

That is fine if you are a trader, if you are an investor you can short the mess and wait for the fundamentals to kick in.

Sun, 02/07/2010 - 22:08 | 221663 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Amen

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