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Investor Sentiment: Bull Signal
As expected, the "dumb money" has turned bearish on the markets, and this is a bullish signal.
{click on graphs to view larger images}
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Giving figures out to the public on where the lines are only encourages painting. ..think about it, technical analysis requires a statistically significant number of participants with different opinions..we don't have that; we have a statistically significant number of trades ..by computers who read technical analysis. That's why the market conforms to known patterns, they read information, they can see what you're writing and they quite possibly have mandate to keep the market as even as possible. Meanwhile, they are designed to take money from trading a stock, etc.
The Fed has given enough leeway to the Financial Service industry to clear it's balance sheet deficiencies, it will just take time. Meanwhile Banks will finish consolidating their risk exposure and then encourage re-tooling investments: it's the risk consolidation period where the banks have to be careful with their money, i.e. prudent trading patterns on equities, for instance, which will be range-bound, sensitive to carelessness and probably capped to the upside due to future uncertainity in general and ' a small number of block-traders' specifically, who prefer to skim profits when the retail numbers can transfer a profit to their books.
It seems to me the dumb money is getting smarter and the smart money is getting dumber. I guess you could have a crash in this situation. BWDIK?
Maybe the "dumb money" has realized it is a fixed game. Maybe they have just taken their ball and gone home. Can you blame them?
Price of gold on Sep. 10th, 2001, the day before the horrible terrible Osama bin Subcontractor attacked us because he hates our Freedom Fries: $271.50. Current price of gold: $1,240 - up 357%.
Price of S&P 500 on Sep. 10th, 2001: 1,093. Current S&P 500: 1,065 - Down 3.%
This does not take into account the dividends that one would have gotten from owning the stocks but I doubt that it would make much difference. “Current” price as of 4:30 PM Aug. 27, 2010)
Gold up 357% stocks down 3%
Comrade peasants, we have been at war with the horrible terrible Islamo-fascists for almost nine years. Show me one war in all history without an increase in commodity prices or without an increase in the desire for gold, just one.
dewd, what gold ??? ron paul sez let's audit the gold !!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRwFa3_wv1Y
its just a matter of time before there's a hostile takeover of one of the major gold mining companies. they are so undervalued. NEM ABX take your pic.
AAII numbers are coinciding with mutual fund outflows so don't get too excited that John Q. Public is "bearish" because he needs the money for groceries. Take out the HFT's and you have zero liquidity.
I vote that we try it and see if the world ends.
Hands??
Damn, I was just saying that bearishness is at an all time high, and that it was bullish.
I was just saying stochastics had bottomed, and that was also bullish.
Then the Dow went up 165 points Friday.
Quoth the bears: Ka-BOOM!
Well, at least they aren't trading...
You're brilliant.
Why thank you. I do what I can.
Johnny B., for a lot of us it is not about how much we did or did not make last Friday, it is about preserving, as best we can, what we have, and trying to build something that will come out hole on the other end. Putting things in place that can serve as a foundation on which to build when the real change happens.
+1 google
So correct me if I'm reading this wrong, but it looks like "dumb" money was pretty consistently bearish at the end of '07 and '08. That doesn't seem too dumb. If you are talking about this indicator from a very myopic standpoint, I guess I can side with you that we might get a short-term bounce.
Can I learn more with the premium content subscription?
Man, there is alot of self promotion from the contributors now...or is it just me?
Pay for a "premium" sub for what is basically "do the opposite of whatever happened last week"? Now, that's really dumb money.
+1...there must be worthwhile information (preferably free) somewhere