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Last week's perfect alignment of the sentiment indicators has led to the expected bounce, but buying conviction remains a big
question as volume was the lowest total for any week since Christmas,
2009.
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If Gorbachev was to communism what Obama will be to capitalism, what event would crown Obama's Gorbachev moment?
Until that moment, any money in the markets is dumb money.
I add the following predictions for the upcoming weeks.
1. Scare strategies to scare people out of bonds.
2. At least a 500 point gain in the Dow Jones.
3. A glaring silence about Europe.
4. Gold under significant selling pressure.
5. Undercurrent chat and new stories of resource scarcity inflation
The next two months are the current administration's Alamo metaphorically speaking so they are going to throw the kitchen sink at our minds. I am short and will remain so for the next 10 years becuase I can afford the time and the money. The current US administration does not have that much time and odds are the Austrian school of economics prevails. It's the only sustainable choice.
I would also keep an eye out for "Pearl Harbour II" scenarios.
I guess I'm dumb money or soon to be dumb money because as soon as the ES hits 1115 I'm shorting the fuck out of it.
Here, here.
+100
LOL.
Let's see...I used to make OK money, now I don't. So I stop investing in a stock portfolio that's gone nowhere for 10 years so that I can buy food and keep my electricity flowing.
I ain't really so keen on calling that segment of the market "dumb money."
They're dumb if they didn't trade the cycles, ladder CDs, buy corporate bonds, or they could have bought I-Bonds when the base rate was 4-6%. Many ways to make money.
S&P can go to 1115-1120 200-day or top trendline resistance. Most often those here are wrong. 10-yr went from 2.47% to 2.80, where did that money go? Resistance is 3.0%, so it is possible money managers chase returns out of bonds into dividend-paying stocks. I don't believe volume has to be huge, only what the majority start doing.
Crooks were quiet ths week for Rosh Hashana.
Here is our latest market analysis. I hope you find it beneficial in your overall market direction thoughts and musings.
http://www.scribd.com/BostonWealthManagement
This analysis assumes that the "dumb money" retail investor's actions are being driven by a similar psychological point of view of the markets that they have had in the past. I believe this to be a BIG mistake. Wise up, the dumb money is moving out of the equity markets like a corn-holed cat because they have recognized this game for the sham it has become and / or because they have no choice (i.e. they need to dip into their brokerage / savings in order to survive). Go ahead, dive into this pavlovian "smart money" buy signal - make my day.
Do you feel lucky?
Why does my seat-of-the-pants logic tell me that a turning point is nigh? Turning down that is. Chartology is one thing, sentiment is one thing, gut feeling is a whole 'nother thing. But what do I know, I'm just a lowly coon.
I think the only people who "expected" a bounce was the ones who know that the FED's minions were buying this dying market. This so called "report" is literally a joke because it pretends we have a rational functional market place which is not true. In fact, how can you have a real market when you have such a huge amount of outflows from the retail side and leverage ratios of many parties that exceed 40 times.