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Investor Sentiment: The Fat Pitch
I am not a
baseball person, but we all know what a "fat pitch" is. It is an easy
one to hit. It doesn't mean you will always hit it or even get a homerun, but
if you see a "fat pitch" coming, you better take a swing. Investor sentiment has turned bearish here,
and this is our "fat pitch". This is a bullish signal because if the
market turns higher, we are likely to see accelerated gains over the time
that investors are bearish.
{to view larger charts just click on them}
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The volumes in those options are so thin that anyone with half a brain would have realized Bernie Madoff with his heavy S&P 100 options strategy was nothing but a liar.
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Fridays COT data has retail turning bullish. Theyre at last buying the dip....
Just an FYI.
(and the 1140 ish right shoulder call on the charts is so overbroked it has slim chance of happening. We will either shoot straight upto 1220 and freak all the bears out with the possibility of the primary trend reasserting its bullishness or we will just continue going straight down from where we are now)
I don't mean to be dickhole, but I can't seem to find any predictive ability in his "bearish sentiment" indicators. The charts he uses don't seem to back up his analysis at all. For example, his indicator hit a low in the Fall of '08, if one would have bought then they would have suffered another 20-30% drop. Likewise, shortly after the rally began in March '09, the sentiment pegged at a high, if one would have sold then, they would have missed the majority of the rally. Useless indicator...
I have one problem with the counter-trend rally at this time.
EVERYBODY is looking for it - even the bears!
BEWARE!
Who the hell trades S&P 100 options any more?
The volumes in those options are so thin that anyone with half a brain would have realized Bernie Madoff with his heavy S&P 100 options strategy was nothing but a liar.
This assume a working free market. Bad assumption here. All the major players in the market can't sell. It's like the MAD doctrine of the cold war ear. Mutually Assured Destruction. So the only people that are selling are the retail guys who still think the market is working. All the major players are controlled. So if enough small guys sell that would cause a problem.
I'm not trying to be offensive here, but I honestly see no value in this article. The writer obviously has no understanding of what a "fat pitch" is, if those are the only indicators used to determine when to invest.
IMHO anyone investing in this Ponzi market is either a gutsy gambler or a "Fat Head".
The all important dollar/oil trade indicator had oil @ $87 just a few weeks ago along with a rally high on the S&P. Since this rally began last march when the oil price pulls back so do stocks.
Brent futures are now - $74 and the S&P futures @ 1080 so the pattern holds.
The shift is from short- dollar to long- dollar trades in the greater markets as a lower crude price reflects increasing dollar value.
Take that, Bernanke, you loser!
Steve, you nail it again!
Steve, your views are like a breath of fresh air in an otherwise one eyed town.
Technical analysis is a pseudoscience that provides a fig-leaf for action junkies who need their fix. Traders who "gotta trade" are the last remaining low hanging fruit for the bots in this market. Rots of ruck to all of them.
Spot on.
They will become canon fodder...........and they deserve to be.
Starve the beast FFS, not feed it by the false belief that you can profit by sitting in front of a monitor reading chicken entrails.
Aren't predictive patterns hammered by counter predictive software with more money? And that gets an override from the news. Technical trades... more shiney objects in the sideshow. Hit the bullseye, win a big stuffed bear but the sites on all those guns are rigged to shoot off target.Thats what it looks like to me up here in the cheap seats .
How many shots do you need before you can successfully deskew?
on smaller timeframes, yes. however, this is the largest timeframe, only way to have enough money to turn the tide is to print some. i.e. QE 2.0