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Nice and concise... I like your style... get to the point without a lot of fanfare... refreshing...
I would just like to say that it appears the market doesn't want outsized takes. What if it can't get what it wants?
I would consider myself your typical "dumb" retail investor but i've done very well since march. I'm up 40% mostly on commodity ETF's and bank stocks. I was all in cash before the market crashed last september ... So all in all i outperformed most hedge funds. Good analysis although I think commodity's are going to remain in a range. Financial stocks have a lot more room to run ... they're gonna report great earnings again.
Looking at the historical data and charts that you've posted, it seems that the dumb money is making $$$ hand over fist. Spoke to a lot of retail investors and they are making $$$$ from the run since March. Spoke to the pro and the picture is mix.
There have been times in the past --1995, 2003, and now 2009- where the "dumb money" just got bullish and the market just kept going higher; it happens. During these times the "smart money" is likely to underperform. But when you look at the price cycle or cycle from fear to greed and back to fear, the markets will clearly perform better -that is gains can be made a lot easier when the "dumb money" is bearish (i.e., bull signal).
government will not hesitate to use swine flu to "stimulate" economy!!
Commodity sectors out preforming? Huh? You might want to open a chart or 3.
A number of times I've seen the insider selling statistic, but nothing that shows whether or not it has any predictive value.
charts without volume ...what a novel idea...
Nice presentation, triple T.
"Outsize bets in either direction are not warranted."
Good words of caution.
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