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Investor Sentiment: Smells Like A Top
It
was only 2 weeks ago that the "dumb money" indicator and Rydex market
timers were bullish to an extreme degree and company insiders were selling
shares at a clip that had not been seen in 4 years. In most instances,
these are bearish
signals.
The exception would be the scenario where too many bulls actually leads to a
bull market. This is what happened in 1995, 1998/ 1999, 2003 and
2009. Will this scenario be repeated in 2010? It is seeming less
and less likely, and if this is the case, then it is worth repeating what I
have stated for 3 weeks in a row: "If the market hasn't topped out
already, it should do so within a couple of percent of the recent highs.
Rallies should be sold and stops tightened up. The market is prone to
sudden sell offs. There will be better risk adjusted opportunities to buy
in the future."
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well!
no better than a bankster so i repeat over at alpha
are you drunk?
DURDEN!!!!!!!!!!
Its old news!
Sure the world is in debt and the public seems to be paying for it so what, what’s new? Talk about peak oil, what about peak histaria? Have you looked at your clients here really can you build on these idiots and economist?
Stop following and start leading and I don’t mean war mongering or trashing the establishment, if you want to lead then lead by example.
Publish some real solutions or shut the fuck down.
And buy some new clothes!
Uhm... what?
Tyler didn't even post this...
SPX to 1222.22.
Then, we'll see...
The S&P500 has already topped at 1227.08 on the 5th of November.
Many are looking for various types of rallies now, it won't happen.
Market has topped, in fact I guarantee it. The question now is whether we creep lower and then plunge or just plunge.
I think it might feel like a steady decline that turns into a runaway train.
Like I said I guarantee it - 100% market has topped - it's over start buying tinned food and digging that bunker - don't put it off any longer.
I would like to agree with this assessment; however, it is hard to be bearish when ISM, ISM Services, China PMI, and PCE keep painting rosy pictures of the economy. I know there are other data that are still weak like housing and jobs but until the China bull is slain, the mortgage putbacks become a reality, or Europe defaults, it is hard to be bearish.
The market topped in Oct 2007 when
China PMI: 53.2
ISM: 52.0 (downtrending)
ISM Services: 54.8 (downtrending)
Last month these values were at
China PMI: 54.7
ISM: 56.9
ISM Services: 54.3
There are no obvious downtrends yet in these indicators today so it is tough to say that this is the top, instead of just an intermittent top.
Yes, the Dow topped at 11451.46 on November 5th.
The 20 month rally has ended.
All down hill from here.
it was that darn 15 point rip in the s&p bollinger band. all the good stuff floated away.
Is it just possible that Rydex could be used as hedge against other positions?
That's the way I use Rydex, and it has been a very successful strategy. For example, if I thought a certain sector would perform worse than the market, I would short that sector and buy Rydex. Does that make me dumb?
Frankly I find it very hard to believe investor sentiment is very positive. I just doesn't feel like the market is overbought, maybe overvalued, but not overbought on speculation.
from here forward, Mr. Market might get far more viciously unpredictable and FAST (Goldman/Morgan, etc) than you can hedge...this just might, stay that way everyday...? longer than you will be able to remain solvent..., no? no trends on which YOU, the retail trader, can depend on..to make money...the ONLY possible trends would be LONG TERM high probability extremes..the FINAL bottom, the FarEast concrescent FOREX bets, eventually likely - Managed YEN down adjusted => need a EURO-like Economic Far East Block of mutual aid, NOT WAR...no North Korean problem, China/Japan fully working togeather...all that..
"Rallies should be sold and stops tightened up. The market is prone to sudden sell offs. There will be better risk adjusted opportunities to buy in the future." MY translation= (1), you should get your ass out NOW! (2) "sudden sell offs"= 500-1000 downward movement in nanoseconds my friends,(3) "better risk adjusted opportunities in the future"(?) like in the year 2050? I, and most of you won't be here, sorry. The "market" (if that's what you want to call it), is a hot air balloon heading for it's explosion into the Stratosphere.
What good are stops in a full fledged waterfall decline? Not much.
Yes, THE TOP....til the hyperinflation...but trying to make money on this...what with Goldman and HFT, no way for the Retail Trader to win on downside bets
...yet...now the wait for the pure desperation, worse than Nov22 2008, worse than March 9 2009...waiting for the 'world as we know it...has ended permanently, forever...wait for the july 1932 equivalent window...then go 'all in, NOT on margin' if you lose, well hell, the world really did end...so its a no loss situation..
Take some prudent precautions, don't trust the 'back office operations to function' expect 'failure to deliver, margin stocks not available, not produced, failure on calls and PERMANENT (BANKRUPT) broker-failure...ASK FOR THE STOCKS PURCHASED TO BE REGISTERED IN YOUR NAME....NOT, REPEAT NOT, IN 'STREET NAME; THE end of the world scenario really really means just that but yet..you can actually get some stocks, 'registered' un-emcumbered by your broker...(close your account, there will be no further 'trading' needed)
What to buy? Consider government 'Nationalization' and capture = job creation, consider profit limits/taxation, consider a world AFTER...remember ruined Germany/Japan 1945 => 1955 the world DID continue...Start studing WHAT to buy NOW, forget the daily variations, todays worthless Netflick and the like...must be substantial, and have some tradition on or reason to actually disgorged 'profits' to the OWNERS not the 'management' not the 'workers' so beware 'public good/utility companies Govt/union targets...
Smells like the burnt-out end of smoky days, to me.