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But these calls have nothing to do with one's own view on the economy ~ something chartists and technicians have yet to understand. THIS IS NOT INVESTING. It's gambling, it's currency hedging.
I'm with the Faber-ites, somewhat bullish on this year's stock outlook. As "dumb money", one could also be bullish to the Nth degree on stock prices because that's the only game in town, yet simultaneously feel an economic depression was in the offing.
Or, I GUESS it is hypothetically possible one can be a market bear now, yet believe in "the recovery" (though one would also have to believe in the tooth fairy, methinks...)
Remember to draw a line between market actions and economics...
I did. What a mess. It really is a disaster and will only get worse. I'm short BP but that won't fix the damage to the environment. This will end up being a colossal nightmare and will empower the extreme side of the greeens. Personally I know that natural resources and the environment have suffered greatly and been managed horribly, but people overreact and cause more damage than they do good. The spotted owl is a perfect example of that overreaction. The sucker fish at Klamath is another. I could go on? The damage caused by this spill will be far reaching. It could fail BP?
I agree with the FOIA call, the fed judges are still holding it up. The Nikkie is closed for holidays until wednesday. The EURO opened and tanked from 133.480 to 132.093 right out of the box. It is slightly up but looks like a sure downward trend/movement. US markets futures are up bit but that could change by 9:30AM. Asian markets down a bit. Can our markets stay up with the EU markets down? or will EU markets surge on the FIX? And it's all based on BS so it's anybodys guess.! No doubt a correction is due, but when and how? It could come in fits and starts without a big downward surge. Down 3% up2% down 3% up1% down 2% up2% could go on indefinately.
Thanks for the thoughts. We probably will not get a lot of direction overnight from the FT or maybe the Dax, but let's wait and see. Do the algos run the place there too?
p.s. did you check out the photos I posted of the rig exploding on GW's oil post? Spectacular and sad.
Barry Ritholtz and David Kotok, both of whom got in right near the bear mkt bottom and have been long and correct every since, are making cautious noises. The second year of every Presidency since Nixon has seen a bottom in the second year, except Reagan's 2nd term. Why not now?
Mitchman- What happened to Bernie Lo? I enjoyed his commentaries and perspective. Great guests as well. The Asia shows are very inforamtuive and a little ahead of the next days events. Other than that Bloomberg is basicly a glorified MSNBC, preordained garbage.
Goober, I agree with you on Bloomberg other than the FOIA suit they are pursuing against the Fed. They deserve a lot of credit for that. I'm still waiting for the Nikkei to open. Bloomberg is saying that Spain is cutting back solar power subsidies because of the contagion (I work in the industry and they were outrageous) and they're talking about how the euro continues its retreat also because of the contagion. I rate them a 6.5 on a scale of 10. I rate cnbc a 10- not because they are any good. But because they give rise to so many hilarious posts on these pages.
Bernie Lo is now at CNBC Asia.
No better test of all the theories that what the Nikkei does upon opening today. It will set the tone for everything else.
Guess again...Constitution Memorial Day, Greenery Day, Children's Day.
(do these people every work? no wonder they lost a decade)
Next Nikkei open is Thu 5/6.
That is how Japs "grow" their economy, when they work, they destroy value. Give them a week off so they can spend, they are following uncle sam's prescription, as these nips always do - spend spend spend, and GDP goes up up up :)
Jeez! So we get to sit and watch the algos take over again?
Unless you have money to burn (literally) then precious metals seem to be the way to go. If it would not matter to you if your cash burst into flames before your very eyes--go ahead and buy some of that ge, aa, or your choice of ignitor.
There have been a lot of sell signals over the past year. With all the "good news" about Greece, there might be at least another leg up - as insane as that sounds. If $VIX gets to 10, I am all in with shorting this market.
"Smart money" is leveraging up for the big parabolic move up. Watch this play out in the months ahead.
I think we've had our "parabolic" move. If Feb-May was not parabolic, I don't know what is.
Where is the bubble? You need another bubble somewhere and we simply haave not got it yet.
How about in credit, fiat currencies, equities and bonds?
I think Faber is dead-on on this call.
I listen to Faber. He's not the only one saying that. AU and NZ will get crushed too if that is the case.
what about Chinese inflationary data? Isn't it the SIGN of overheating? Now imagine you are a Chinese exporter. You have to pay higher prices for your raw materials but the prices of your final produce are stagnant because you are not the middle man , do not do the final sales/marketing and Wall Marts, Targets & Co have plenty of other places to shop around (Vietnam, Malasia, etc.). So if your costs are going up but revenues are stagnant, what will happen to your MARGINS?
What are they leveraging into?
Perhaps leveraging into BP/RIG/HAL/MEE ? The usual suspects ?
On the flip side could funds scrambling to delever out of the usual suspects cause a scramble on the broader markets ?
Will the effects of the oil spill be a potential black swan event that nobody expected ?
Let me guess...by buying Chinese Solar stocks?
Give it a rest Leo.
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