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Investor Sentiment: This Time Will Not Be Different
It
was touch and go this week, but in the end and as suspected in last week's comments, the "this time is
different" scenario will not play out. Prices are expected to
head lower as the bullish extremes in sentiment unwind. This should NOT
be a bull market top leading to a bear market. Bear markets come about
when "buying the dip" fails. In other words, this overbought,
over bullish market should correct providing a better risk adjusted
buying opportunity in the future. Failure of a bounce to materialize at that
point is a harbinger of a bear market. I expect to see a correction
leading to a better risk adjusted buying opportunity, and this buying
opportunity usually coincides with investors turning too bearish (i.e., bull
signal). We are a ways from that point, but we will get there!!
{click on image to enlarge}
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Gosh....This is what I have been saying for a while. Volatility is not a one way street in general. Gold and silver may still correct from her. The stock market, oil, etc are due for a correction at some point. And I still find no one at all willing to say a kind word about treasuries. That is the most bearish extreme sentiment I have ever seen in my life. The situation may look entirely different to everyone in a few months. If the world needs 100 trillion in credit growth to support economic growth and the environment is not conducive to credit expansion, then Qe2 is just a tiny drop in a big ass bucket. We just don't know how big this deflationary monster is. There is no way to measure it adequately, but the 100 trillion in credit needed to keep the world economy going is a big hint.
Last summer, the BIS tallied $1.4 quadrillion dollars of derivatives exposure on the world's banks' books, both off and on exchanges. Your $100 trillion figure is way short of that number. Where did you cook up $100 trillion, a WAG?
What is unprecedented is the ignorance of banking reality and currency shortcomings, but that correction is out there, growling.
This time is very different.....perhaps if one prices the DOW in oz. of gold it is closer to what has happened before, but in USD terms we have never seen the Feds run a POMO program. I find it astonishing that our Fed could have managed to create food riots worldwide....that qualifies as being 'different' & there appears no precedent for that.
With Bennie and the inkjets printing money and artificially inflating the market as he did ever since the crash of March 2009, HOW WOULD WE KNOW????? With POMO and QE infinity, the artificail will be the problem. HOw do we know this is a dip or a correction or the risk issues when we have Primary Dealers flush with ZIRP money from POMO every day?
We see that in the early POMO after the 2009 crash that the POMO's "only needed to be" A billion or two every third day or so. Now it takes just over 7-9 billion a day just to stay even and all the POMO's from here on out from the Egypt issue to the rest of the cards falling will mean that the POMO's need to get around 15-17 billion to keep up with the devaluation.
At what point does Benny take a shiney .357 and put it in his mouth?????
Soon, please, sir.
Was that in response to the "shiney .357" part of the post?
I am waiting. These people must have no conscience or completely delusional and psycotic. If I was at the center of the storm and caused things to get very much worse,I think I would resign or off myself out of shame.
It would be too little, too late. Impaling would be too good for them.
[With Bennie and the inkjets printing money and artificially inflating the market as he did ever since the crash of March 2009, HOW WOULD WE KNOW?????]---Everyman
I agree.
The article's author is a fool. Blinded from larger facts, he/she cannot get out from behind the edifices of former market indicators to see that the economic/financial structures in which he/she grew up are gone.
Pretty tough pill to swallow when you learn everything you know, everything you come to count on, everything on which you depend to support your family, is gone.
And then to learn, not only were you fooling yourself, but that other people intentionally manipulated you so that they might benefit?
Time to "short" US gov -- where laws are made and enforced -- supposedly.
+1
Chart analysis, fundaments, historical trends are irrelevant in a rigged game.
Well certainly Grand Poopercycle isn't different this time and anyone who wants to bail on their long PM positions on the baseless of this ANALysis should first consider the Grand Pooper post of Aug 30
Mon Aug 30August 30, 2010
As the markets can change rapidly at times – a reminder that
updates can be found here: http://twitter.com/grandsupercycle
The DOW/SP500 counter trend rally that started last Thursday
appears to be ending already. Certainly the bearish larger time
frame trends will continue to influence smaller counter trend rallies.
USDPLN daily and weekly charts give bullish warning.
USDDKK daily and weekly charts give bullish warning.
USDCAD daily and weekly bullish signals continue.
DAX Index daily chart is bearish to neutral. Weekly chart is bearish
to neutral. Monthly chart is neutral but gives bearish long term
warnings.
USDX (US Dollar Index) continues to give very bullish warnings and
the opposite for EURUSD and DOW/SP500 etc.
So I’m still expecting global equity weakness and USD strength.
Gee, wonder how that worked out.....
Just updated my S&P 500 Financial Index chart.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com