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Iran, Russia and the Real World Obama Cannot Change
I have a frequent nightmare: In the year 2011, with the full support and complicity of their shadow ally, Russia, the Islamofascist regime in Tehran announces that they have developed a deliverable nuclear weapon(s). That any attempt by any nation to dismantle their program through military force or draconian economic sanctions will be viewed as an overt act of war. That they will view any such act of war as justification enough to deploy a nuclear weapon against Israel…regardless of what nation is behind the initial response.
They will cite classic anti-Semitic mantra, such as the myth that international Jewry controls the Western powers, etc. as their reasoning for labeling Israel the chief culprit by default. More to the point, when push comes to shove they know that President Obama harbors no love of the Jewish state (as his harsh treatment of Netanyahu shows) and will have no stomach for a war to protect it.
[Meanwhile the Russians let it be known through diplomatic back-channels that relations between Tehran and Moscow have recently thawed and any retaliatory military strike against Iran for its actions against Israel could be viewed as an attack on Russia.]
The West, assuming it is even motivated to respond at all, is now put in a precarious position for a now-nuclear Iran looms over the Strait of Hormuz like a Colussus. This narrow sea lane is by far the world’s most important oil chokepoint due to its daily flow of 16.5-17 million barrels, or roughly 40 percent of all seaborne oils (20 th percent of oil traded worldwide). At its narrowest point the channel is only 21 miles wide.
Now Obama will have a choice to make. Will he commit the US Navy to keep the strait open, call the Russian bluff and risk a world war? Or will he back down and seek a “diplomatic” solution. Regardless, even temporarily closing off the Persian Gulf would cause an economically devastating spike in the price of oil and a sympathy rally in all commodities.
This would be just fine for the commodity-rich Russia. With 79 billion barrels of proven reserves they hover above a vast reservoir of untapped crude oil. And let us not overlook natural gas. In fact, according to the EIA, Russia holds the world’s largest natural gas reserves, with 1,680 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), which is nearly twice the reserves in the next largest country which is, guess who, Iran. In 2006 Russia was not only the world’s largest natural gas producer (23.2 Tcf), but also the world’s largest exporter (6.6 Tcf). Russian government forecasts expect gas production to total 31.1 Tcf by 2030. Europe is highly dependent on Russian natural gas through the state-controlled Transneft pipelines they could close with the turn of a nozzle. The EU imports almost half of its natural gas and 30 percent of its oil from Russia. Eastern Europe consumes even higher percentages of Russian gas.
[As my dream moves along, I envision too that as a precursor to Iran’s announcement we see a sustained rally in oil futures before the eventual spike as Tehran will have given their new friends an ample heads-up allowing the barons of Moscow to go long futures as a hedge against what is coming and even profit from the appreciation should their cash business be temporarily dislocated from supply disruptions.]
The fact is the Russians have a vested interest in a nuclear Iran. It is good for business and certainly will greatly diminish the power and influence of the already hard-pressed USA. So even as Russian president Dmitry Medvedev offers lip-service to “limited” sanctions to an ever more bewildered Obama foreign policy team, the true powers in Russia—Putin and the band of hybrid statist/capitalist billionaire oligarchs—will never support effective economic measures that will hurt Iran enough to curb its nuclear ambitions. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” is the old saying. And the Russians certainly do not look to as us partners…at best competitors, at worst impediments to their desires for expansion that date back into the dimmest past of the ancient tsars. Self-interest is the guiding principle among European nation-states. It always has been and always will be—“rock star” president notwithstanding.
[Meanwhile, as my nightmare unfolds, in another sea channel, the Chinese—who already have strong economic ties with Iran—coincidentally decide to launch a repeat of their bellicose 1996 naval exercises in the Formosa Strait almost within sight of the Taiwanese coast. What will the USA do? How will we treat this act of aggression half way across the world committed by the nation whose military might is formidable and even more prickly, holds much of our national debt and the value of our currency in a death grip?]
The America of my dream is thus weak and quite vulnerable. But this premonition need not come to pass. The first step towards thwarting this one potential future is for the Obama administration to do a re-“reset” in foreign relations and get a grip on who are our friends, who are our enemies, and start treating each accordingly. If Obama truly believes his own rhetoric that a nuclear Iran is “unacceptable” then he must see that we have with Israel a common and imperative goal to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. If that means that he must give Israel tacit approval for a military strike with a quiet assurance that we will have their back regardless of what inevitable “condemnation” resolution come downs the UN pipeline then so be it. This is real world stuff here and the future of millions could be at stake. Hyperbole? Part of being a leader is having the capacity to imagine the unimaginable. 9/11 gave us a clue what a few hard-core Islamic zealots with box-cutters and no scruples can do. Just imagine this crowd with a nuke. Again, “unacceptable” means just that: we cannot accept it.
What Obama must accept is that our interests and those of much of the world are not aligned on this matter…either economically or politically. And thus must he find in himself the same “courage” that he conjured up to push through an unpopular healthcare bill at home because he, ahem, knew best, and this time do what is best for the world, whether that world knows it or not.
The fact is that the notion of a “global community” is a myth. Nations are what nations are. And a clue as to how they will conduct their affairs can usually be discerned by picking up a history book and thumbing through a page or two.
Iran is the geopolitical illustration of Newton’s first law of motion which offers that an object in motion will stay in motion on the same course until acted upon. It seems that in his desire to turn inward and create an economic utopia within our borders, Barack Obama is unwilling to accept that the world outside remains a very hazardous place. And there are many in that world who view the imminent decline of American power not as a symbol of a newfound global harmony, but rather an opportunity for mischief. If he stays on his relentless course of statism at home and post-American dogma abroad, Mr. Obama will end up irrevocably weakening this nation with unsustainable domestic activism and an utter misapprehension about the rough and tumble neighborhood in which his happy-faced diplomats are trying to navigate. He may very well get a new world order, that “change” of which he spoke so forcefully in his campaign. But I think the reality will not be so pleasant as his fantasy optimism would have him “hope.”
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Yes, let's blow the shit out of everyone now, long live the pre-emptive strike! And when we're finished with non-Americans let's snuff out all the disgruntled people under 50 who are threatening to underfund the Boomers' retirement dreams.
Those dreams were compromised by decades of embezzelment by congress. Are they the disgruntled people?
Shafeone: Congratulations!!! Your first contribution and you reminded all of us that ZH is best fight club on the web...Bravo!!! May we please have another!!!!
Fuck this warmongering scrotewankery.
Shafeone----A pseudonym for Marla Singer to rant her latest stories of Israeli soldiers shooting people with red ink????? No Marla Singer, that was not red ink, Those Turkish people were shot in the head, and that American really did die.
It is surely time for the World to re-examine our essential human interrelatedness as we face a world where many factions have the ability to set in motion events which can only presage the collapse of civilization, when the first A Bomb, no matter how "small", is detonated offensively, I think, nothing can stop the slide into all out War, the destruction of civilization and the end of mankind, if this event takes place nothing will ever rebuild trust and we are doomed, the person who causes this cataclysmic event will be the most successful suicide bomber who ever lived, they will die and they will take Everyone with them!
This is copied from Yahoo UK, it was posted shortly after the incident with the Blockage busters.
This board is an educational experience 6-Jun-10 02:20 AM
Thanks to all the posters here, without doubt the finest examples of sophistry anywhere in the English language are on display on this board, some of the posters are without peer at dissecting facts and rearranging the parts to buttress whatever interpertation of the world they are promoting, bravo to your literary skills, you are true wordsmiths!How can this all end? Not well I'm afraid! People tend to judge others by their own beliefs and behavior, in this case Christians cannot comprehend people who consider being hated as a virtue, a virtue because it cements the tribe together and excludes nonmembers, yet this is exactly what is happening, the strongest vitriol is reserved for the Jews who might seek a middle ground, they are characterized as "self hating Jews" and they are in danger of being cast out into the world where, they have been taught, everyone hates them. This doesn't exist in the Christian mind which has been trained to believe that all have worth and we must make compromises (turn the other cheek) to get along!Masada is the future only this time the whole world will be together on top of the mountain. Don't doubt it, the more excuses you make for bad behavior the greater the bad behavior becomes, it is too late to reign in bad behavior the anger can only grow, it is without doubt that the next controversy will be of a magnitude greater than the last, and it is without doubt that our leaders will stand shame faced before the world unable to do anything about it.
This is the kind of simple-minded tripe that really turns me off.
You should have better dreams.
Your economic points are well taken but I feel they are trumped by current politics. First, Iran is hell bent on exporting it's Islamic fundamentalism far & wide. This makes for a very delicate situation for Russia. The deal is Russia jollies them along on as much as it can & Iran lays off making things worse for Russia & it's problems with Islamic & Separatist Insurgents. It's an uneasy alliance at best. Second, Israel has a large population of Russian immigrants. Don't underestimate this, blood is thicker than water. Since the breakup these Israeli Russians are probably feeling much better about the mother country too. In short Russia has much to gain from Israel & much to fear from Iran (Nuclear or not). Israel is a natural ally & Iran a natural enemy. Iran as a nuclear power (an unstable nuclear power) on it's borders would be a nightmare for Russia. The politics just doesn't work & I don't see any change in the wind.
STFU and read about islamic movement in Iran before such comments
The Taliban and Alqaeda are mostly Wahhabi Sunni's who hate you as much as Shiaite Iranians
I pray for those persians who are unnecessarily been dragged into war by ideologues.
Why will the conspiratorialists not distinguish between the efforts of Israel to survive by any and all means and the relentless drive of Iran and their proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon, in Syria and Hamas in the territories et al to annihilate Israel? Whether or not they take Israel head on in open war or weaken her with successive escalations of encompassing forces, coercing her finally into a capitulation, Iran and its partners seek the destruction of Israel. Israel's only goal is survival.
What man would relinquish the aid of his his surest ally when he is encircled by enemies plotting and howling for his blood? If America abandons Israel, we are finished as a nation.
where do they get this stuff?
Let me get this straight. You want to start another war in the mid-east while we have 2 on at the moment. Reality check, they are going badly, wtf do you think will happen if we start another? This piece makes as much sense as a kindergarteners conversation with their imaginary friend.
You call those "wars"? War is an existentially driven enterprise. Those two wars are restrained police actions. SWAT teams stateside have less restrained rules of engagement. If these "wars" are going badly, it is for failure to take them seriously.
Which is to say you go to "war" with the electorate you have. All apologies to St. Rumsfeld.
Reforger motto was "come as you are war". Can't hang that on Rummy. I first heard it from Don Starry, but it had to be old even then. Come to think of it, it had to be older than Holland Smith.
- Ned
BINGO....we are imaginary friends!!!
The author wrote: "9/11 gave us a clue what a few hard-core Islamic zealots with box-cutters and no scruples can do."
What the F*** have you been smoking? Any American Patriot who doesn't have s*** for brains, or any NON-civilian (i.e. intelligence or military officer) knows full well who was responsible for 9/11, and it wasn't a bunch of Arabs in caves.
There are enemies WITHIN our borders.
Be WARY, my fellow Americans, of AGENTS OF A FOREIGN NATION (Israel).
Happy July the Fourth! RESIST TYRANNY! DEFEND THE CONSTITUTION TO THE LAST MAN.
This piece is a silly. It wants US citizens to think it is in their best interest to go start yet another war in the mid-east this time against Iran and to do it NOW. It is in Israel's best interest to do so but not for working class US citizens. Let this person go back to sleep and have another dream and let Israel fight it's own wars.
The irrationality animating the idea that Israel will retaliate if it is struck with a nuclear weapon and therefore America should not do EVERYTHING to prevent it to excites horror and astonishment. Horror at the perversity of the idea and astonishment, not at the idiocy of the thought process that produced it, its far too common to merit a second glance on that account; no, my amazement is reserved for the ranting, raging tone it is expressed in. Surely such cold-blooded, calculated consignment of a race to the oven of nuclear war merits a more measured enunciation.
The psychologist might ascribe such foaming-at-the-mouth vitriol to the ascendancy of the unconscious that mars our age. The philosopher would shake his head sadly and descry the moral lassitude of the times. The historian might note the degeneracy of education and critical thinking. I merely note the almost gleeful systematic debasement of truth that corrodes certain civil discourse today. In times past, a person or a race might be unjustly excoriated for partisan advantage, but surely the distortion and outright fabrication of history by a deluded and uninformed group for the sake of party identity and sheer blood-lust has few and notable precedents (See Nazi Germany).
If America withdraws from the world, or, indeed, even so much as relaxes (See the fruits of Obama's world tour of guilt, 2009) where will it stop? If I am to answer as the America haters' would respond if they could answer in full knowledge of the consequences of their own doctrines, it would not stop with little nations like Israel or Taiwan or Georgia. No, they would proclaim the Caliphate of North America. Over my dead body.
Francis, you are a bit of a "foam at the mouth-er" your self, In the service of your own cause of course, and you are also a very accomplished sophist and obfusticater, it is a real pleasure to read your post. Francis, men simultaneously live in two worlds, in both worlds death awaits the unwary, the first world, and the place where most men spend their whole lives and energy is the world of myths and dreams which lives only in our minds, in that world, the one between the ears, a people can be exceptional a man can be born a member of a tribe of chosen people, a nation can be invincible or any other thing a man can convince himself is true, unfortunately these are only ideas in the mind, and the more reality intrudes and challenges these myths the more energy must be expended to keep them true and unchallengeable, even if it means war, and the destruction of everything!
The other world is the world where all men of whatever race or creed live, it is the world represented by the body which must eat, drink, sleep and excrete just like every other man on earth, unfortunately the body is a slave to the delusions of consciousness.
Why don't you put your prodigious powers of persuasion into the service of ideas which might allow mankind to elude it's fate and succeed in having a bright new beginning?
So, once you get past the poor Zionist spin (let's call that a subset of the Judeo Christian Fascist sect), what's left here is a rant designed to inspire hate. The people are getting tired of hating Afghans and Iranians and it's time to marshal the troops against a new foe. The Russians and Chinese, repeats but classics.
The reason that countries aspire to Nukes is to keep the United States from invading them for resources. This editorial is about who is controlling other countries resources and how the Russians and Chinese are evil and it's best left to America. We need to invade to preserve freedom and democracy!
Everyone knows the consequences of nuking Israel (even Iran knows). They will turn the ME into glass and as many western cities as their subs can reach (the Samson Option is hardly a secret).
The one thing left out is how about letting the Afghans and Iranians develop their own resources? (maybe someone can post the their a bunch of backward savages party line, while someone else can post the too much corruption line). Of course what would the CIA do if it wasn't creating new terrorist groups and plotting bombings for future regime changes or wars.
It's our turn. Didn't really want it. It was thrust upon us. History is like that. We're the cop on the beat. Yes, previous ones have been brutal, cynical, self-serving. But we're different. We're bigger than all the rest put together. Some of our mistakes seem that way as well. History is like that. It's not a dream. Just history.
We're not quite alone on our beat. A couple of dozen of others willing to help but no heavy lifting, please, with some honorable exceptions. Will we lay down our burden and let the animals run wild; wilt when the realities of war spill innocent blood; permit revisionism, ignorance, self-loathing or plain old hatred and mendacity to enervate us; pronounce high-flown ideals evincing a superior morality that eschews violence while the world bleeds from our inaction; is our Judeo-Christian western civilization just a relatist's countervaling game piece? That is the question.
To those who cry out 'yes' I will not respond this time. To those that reserve judgement, I say what history says: as long as young men go down to the sea, as long as men squint into the sun, as long as liberty and freedom are properly understood, we must struggle. For what? Surely the good.
Therefore, weigh carefully what history teaches. Shun the lies that fill the air today. Breath the air of your forefathers and learn of their struggles, successes and shortcomings. For all the evil men have produced, sure the good is greater.
Most of all discern the consequences of destroying the foundation western society, of which Israel surely is a cornerstone. Every age has its policeman, for good or evil. Every age has many lessons to draw from history, but only one chance to make it.
Everyone fears & distrusts the cop on the beat. Until they need him that is then you can hear them squealing for blocks & blocks. A lot of the flack America takes is due to this.
STFU.
francismarion
"It's our turn. Didn't really want it. It was thrust upon us. History is like that. We're the cop on the beat."
Um, no. In another thread I posted parts of the 1954 Republican platform. Pretty obvious they made a choice to be the cop on the beat. To stick our greedy little snout all over the world.
I'm pretty sure the 20th, and parts of the 19th, century reads like a play book of empire building by the US.
HAPPY AIPAC DAY!
This article/post is so poorly written that as a formerly passive member, I just have to call it for what it is.
Drivel at best.
This is what I got from USATODAY:
"President Obama has signed a bill imposing tough new sanctions against Iran over its alleged nuclear weapons program. The bill Obama signed Thursday(7/1/2010) evening targets exports of gasoline and other refined petroleum products to Iran. It bans U.S. banks from doing business with foreign banks providing services to Iran's Revolutionary Guard".
So this bill declares economy war against Iran. We are one step closer to a real war as ZHers talked about lately. At the same time, Iran is moving its military to coastal regions.
I think ZHers shall follow this event closely. BTW, I just bought oil stocks and popcorns.
Never ceases to amaze me that people regard the biggest warmonger of the last century and the one and only country sick enough to use nuclear weapons against a civilian population as the only safe pair of hands for them. Happy 4th of July you fucking hypocrites.
The use of the bomb at the end of WWII while regrettable in hindsight achieved two things. First, it brought the war to a quick & relatively painless end. Our estimated casualties would have been 500,000. Japan's casualties much higher 700,000 & up plus the country would have been bombed out like Germany was. This means nothing but rubble for the country to rebuild on. Second, the use of the bombs demonstrated to the world just what they could do in concrete visible form that could never be forgotten or written off as theoretical. That provided the evidence & motivation for our current efforts worldwide to outlaw these weapons. As for the Japanese having to bear the pain; their fascist regime started it. When you allow extremists to order your lives you take these risks.
and further, Jesus, please compare/contrast the effect of the use of two nuclear weapons vs. a) conventional firebombing of Dresden and Tokyo and b) total Japanese casualties expected with Operation Olympic (for convenience you may neglect the expected casualties on the U.S./Allied side. However, you must consider the consequences of extending the conventional conflict.
Extra Credit: what would have been the economic effects on Japan's recovery given the range of expected infrastructure damage to Japanese cities. You may use close contemporaneous examples of military operations on urban terrain (Stalingrad, Seoul, Seoul again, Hue City etc) in your analysis of prospective outcomes.
We eagerly await your moral conclusion.
- Ned
nothing can justify nuclear bombing in my opinion, especially the second time- after what happened in Hiroshima
Nothing can justify? Then please take above test. And they had to break Tojo's will.
War itself is an atrocity.
- Ned
Could you please list the wars of the last century and which country started them ?
For good measure could you list the major purges, massacres, " necessary reforms" and genocides of the past century and which nations leaders started them and continued them?
Thanks
http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz/interventions.html
A fairly comprehensive list of belligerence and murder for you (including the use of nuclear weapons on civilian populations on two separate occasions).
Would you be happy if a sociopath with a lengthy history of looting and murder was the only guy in your town allowed to own a gun?
jesus,
You completely missed the point.
Studies of almost all cultures beyond 2500 years ago reveal that about 20% of males died violent deaths
Last century that number was below 2%
Progress can only be made if humans:
1) Avoid easy moralizing
2) Avoid demonizing, categorizing and sterotyping other nations and people. (all you Americans are hypocrites. Happy fucking fouth of July.( sound familiar?))
3) Match rigor to passion (as in noting that 100's of nations and peoples were unspeakably cruel in the last century and or noting that Japan started the war against the people of the Phillipines, Malaysia, China, Korea, Oceania and the US and had not responded to calls to surrender. One does not absolve the other but it does cast doubt on the idea that cruelty and a faulty moral compass is a uniquely American trait....and that it is shared by all Americans)
4) Avoid personal hypocrisy.
5) Avoid preaching without one knowing one possesses humility and self awareness
As a person who wishes the world to do better...I was not defending the decisions at the end of WWII (when none responsible are on the thread to begin with). Obviously, more and other attempts to end the war should have taken place....except you forget the Russians were moving to invade and get theirs. You also forget that the Japanese leaders were continuing a lost fight... and thereby inviting more suffering for their people.....by choice
It is the poverty of claims that those people who fail at all the above 5 items possess and their continued penchant for increasing the chances of more easy rationalized cruelty and bad thinking to occur in the world that I was attacking.
The new beast here is religion and race, that would be No 6
What a militaristic warmonger drivel written in order to justify $1 trillion military spending as long as eye can see. What would US miltatary industrail complex do without Israel, or Russia?
by the time Obama decides his term and hopefully his presidency will be over too.
Jul 3 1988
Mistaking it for a F-14 fighter plane, the American warship USS Vincennes shoots down Iran Air flight 655, killing all 290 people aboard. Despite his country's having recklessly downed a passenger airliner while operating inside Iran's territorial waters, Vice President George Bush declares a month later: "I will never apologize for the United States of America, ever. I don't care what the facts are."
The neocons, with Israeli-influenced media support, took us to war on a sovereign country that had no means to harm the U.S. Iraqi villagers died by the hundreds of thousands; Americans went from high school to Walter Reed and home town graveyards--with full misguided support from their communities. In the mistaken belief that Obama would be less likely to follow that path again than McCain, we’re now arm-in-arm marching to the next Israeli-enemy domino—Iran. On the way, Lebanon?
‘Israel to take over Lebanon gas by force’ | PRESSTV | June 25, 2010
Israel has threatened to use military force to take the full control of a newly-discovered gas field partly in Lebanese waters in the Mediterranean Sea.
http://presstv.com/classic/detail.aspx?id=131989§ionid=351020203
Hhhmm. A shame to publish religious provocation, in my view. Believe as you will, but don't make your problems mine. Fine, did I need to read the piece ? No, but I chose to, in case there was something of interest, which there frequently is in ZH pieces. Hence the disappointment at a lowering of the overall quality, IMHO.
I offer one link re organised religion. Which is about as seriously as I'm prepared to take any religion, frankly.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQqq3e03EBQ
They post these peices to "stimulate debate" DS. When i say stimulate debate, what i really mean is stir up prejudice and hatred so as to motivate people into visiting and revisiting this site several times over to post irrelevant remarks on topics that they are largely ignorant about. This means ZH can command a higher premium from their advertisers. Its a sound business plan...get a lot of quacks to rant and rave at each other day in-day out and watch the money roll in. All i hope for is that the money is put to good use; cocaine binges and shotguns etc.
and adding my favorite word "feckless."
- Ned
This Post is FALLACIOUS on so many fronts... Address one of them:
"In the year 2011..."
" That they will view any such act of war as justification enough to deploy a nuclear weapon against Israel…"
How About We Look at RIGHT NOW:
That a lunatic nuclear armed rogue state... with it's imperialist, international law breaking war mongering super power pal possessing the world's most expensive and largest military war machine...
Claims a nation not having a Wall Street/ City of London controlled central bank to exploit oil wealth and run $$Trillions in derivatives on said oil wealth...
Is a "threat" and is currently surrounding said nation with nuclear armed naval forces... secretly positioning attack aircraft on its borders... preparing to start WW3...
That Nightmare that is reality?
Oh and a note to the nuclear armed rouge state and their war mongering protectorate:
People were hung at Nuremberg for:
"Planning and waging aggressive war."
Funny... Israel and Wall Street ALWAYS claim to be the victim...
Note to Tyler: Please hit the ejecto-guest button. You can do better... we can read better...
do you think Russia could solve the Chechnya problem by making peace with the Islamofascists?
then I'm buying it.
do you think the Russians want to live forever with all those Nato missiles pointed at Moscow, mere minutes away, indefensible?
then I'm buying it.
do you think the Chinese central government can maintain authoritarian control over its vast provinces, with diverse ethnic, racial, and religious differences. and you're can control tthe population when everyone has a cellphone?
put me down for two of those.
do you think the immigration problem, nearly 400 million aggressive, smart, restless sons of white anglo saxon nordic ass kicking mothers, will stop until they have all of Mexico, a nation of less than 100 million poor and oppressed people with vast resources?
please in the future dream truthfully.
I think all of us criticizing this "article" create an illusion that this piece of fox-news like of "journalism" is worth any feedback. Like I posted above its an insult to any intelligent life form and a terrible waste of brain cells
No worries, your not an intelligent life form...lmao
Sure I am not :)
Its only my lunacy speaking creating its own agenda , USS Liberty "accident" was really an accident , Israel being a racist state discriminating against its own citizens of Arab origin is pure BS , Theodor Hertzl was an actual zionist and his agenda was brought about by creating of Israel so it ceased to exist hence there is no need to be a zionist any more :)
I see more and more people getting their heads out of their asses and I enjoy this view