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Iran, Russia and the Real World Obama Cannot Change
I have a frequent nightmare: In the year 2011, with the full support and complicity of their shadow ally, Russia, the Islamofascist regime in Tehran announces that they have developed a deliverable nuclear weapon(s). That any attempt by any nation to dismantle their program through military force or draconian economic sanctions will be viewed as an overt act of war. That they will view any such act of war as justification enough to deploy a nuclear weapon against Israel…regardless of what nation is behind the initial response.
They will cite classic anti-Semitic mantra, such as the myth that international Jewry controls the Western powers, etc. as their reasoning for labeling Israel the chief culprit by default. More to the point, when push comes to shove they know that President Obama harbors no love of the Jewish state (as his harsh treatment of Netanyahu shows) and will have no stomach for a war to protect it.
[Meanwhile the Russians let it be known through diplomatic back-channels that relations between Tehran and Moscow have recently thawed and any retaliatory military strike against Iran for its actions against Israel could be viewed as an attack on Russia.]
The West, assuming it is even motivated to respond at all, is now put in a precarious position for a now-nuclear Iran looms over the Strait of Hormuz like a Colussus. This narrow sea lane is by far the world’s most important oil chokepoint due to its daily flow of 16.5-17 million barrels, or roughly 40 percent of all seaborne oils (20 th percent of oil traded worldwide). At its narrowest point the channel is only 21 miles wide.
Now Obama will have a choice to make. Will he commit the US Navy to keep the strait open, call the Russian bluff and risk a world war? Or will he back down and seek a “diplomatic” solution. Regardless, even temporarily closing off the Persian Gulf would cause an economically devastating spike in the price of oil and a sympathy rally in all commodities.
This would be just fine for the commodity-rich Russia. With 79 billion barrels of proven reserves they hover above a vast reservoir of untapped crude oil. And let us not overlook natural gas. In fact, according to the EIA, Russia holds the world’s largest natural gas reserves, with 1,680 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), which is nearly twice the reserves in the next largest country which is, guess who, Iran. In 2006 Russia was not only the world’s largest natural gas producer (23.2 Tcf), but also the world’s largest exporter (6.6 Tcf). Russian government forecasts expect gas production to total 31.1 Tcf by 2030. Europe is highly dependent on Russian natural gas through the state-controlled Transneft pipelines they could close with the turn of a nozzle. The EU imports almost half of its natural gas and 30 percent of its oil from Russia. Eastern Europe consumes even higher percentages of Russian gas.
[As my dream moves along, I envision too that as a precursor to Iran’s announcement we see a sustained rally in oil futures before the eventual spike as Tehran will have given their new friends an ample heads-up allowing the barons of Moscow to go long futures as a hedge against what is coming and even profit from the appreciation should their cash business be temporarily dislocated from supply disruptions.]
The fact is the Russians have a vested interest in a nuclear Iran. It is good for business and certainly will greatly diminish the power and influence of the already hard-pressed USA. So even as Russian president Dmitry Medvedev offers lip-service to “limited” sanctions to an ever more bewildered Obama foreign policy team, the true powers in Russia—Putin and the band of hybrid statist/capitalist billionaire oligarchs—will never support effective economic measures that will hurt Iran enough to curb its nuclear ambitions. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” is the old saying. And the Russians certainly do not look to as us partners…at best competitors, at worst impediments to their desires for expansion that date back into the dimmest past of the ancient tsars. Self-interest is the guiding principle among European nation-states. It always has been and always will be—“rock star” president notwithstanding.
[Meanwhile, as my nightmare unfolds, in another sea channel, the Chinese—who already have strong economic ties with Iran—coincidentally decide to launch a repeat of their bellicose 1996 naval exercises in the Formosa Strait almost within sight of the Taiwanese coast. What will the USA do? How will we treat this act of aggression half way across the world committed by the nation whose military might is formidable and even more prickly, holds much of our national debt and the value of our currency in a death grip?]
The America of my dream is thus weak and quite vulnerable. But this premonition need not come to pass. The first step towards thwarting this one potential future is for the Obama administration to do a re-“reset” in foreign relations and get a grip on who are our friends, who are our enemies, and start treating each accordingly. If Obama truly believes his own rhetoric that a nuclear Iran is “unacceptable” then he must see that we have with Israel a common and imperative goal to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. If that means that he must give Israel tacit approval for a military strike with a quiet assurance that we will have their back regardless of what inevitable “condemnation” resolution come downs the UN pipeline then so be it. This is real world stuff here and the future of millions could be at stake. Hyperbole? Part of being a leader is having the capacity to imagine the unimaginable. 9/11 gave us a clue what a few hard-core Islamic zealots with box-cutters and no scruples can do. Just imagine this crowd with a nuke. Again, “unacceptable” means just that: we cannot accept it.
What Obama must accept is that our interests and those of much of the world are not aligned on this matter…either economically or politically. And thus must he find in himself the same “courage” that he conjured up to push through an unpopular healthcare bill at home because he, ahem, knew best, and this time do what is best for the world, whether that world knows it or not.
The fact is that the notion of a “global community” is a myth. Nations are what nations are. And a clue as to how they will conduct their affairs can usually be discerned by picking up a history book and thumbing through a page or two.
Iran is the geopolitical illustration of Newton’s first law of motion which offers that an object in motion will stay in motion on the same course until acted upon. It seems that in his desire to turn inward and create an economic utopia within our borders, Barack Obama is unwilling to accept that the world outside remains a very hazardous place. And there are many in that world who view the imminent decline of American power not as a symbol of a newfound global harmony, but rather an opportunity for mischief. If he stays on his relentless course of statism at home and post-American dogma abroad, Mr. Obama will end up irrevocably weakening this nation with unsustainable domestic activism and an utter misapprehension about the rough and tumble neighborhood in which his happy-faced diplomats are trying to navigate. He may very well get a new world order, that “change” of which he spoke so forcefully in his campaign. But I think the reality will not be so pleasant as his fantasy optimism would have him “hope.”
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Your bald head comes to mind...lol
Ah GS, you can make the money by sucking the wallet of the whale, or make like the whale and cruise for krill. Its a meal however you do it. Balance sheets are not colored red, just black and white.
Its Bonus Time.
don't look now Squid: Instant Karma's Gonna Get Ya!
lol...:-)
Gully: I guess you did not get the backdrop certificate, but GS is a Zombie, its already dead, it can't be killed!!!!!...:-)
Sqworl
Everything dies.
Gully...you have more history than future...that's fo sho, but seriously do you really believe that the Zombies will die????....:-)
Sqworl
A king once called is wisest men to him and asked them to create something to make him happy when he was sad and sad when he was happy.
After pondering for weeks one wise man returned.He handed the king a simple note. The note said
" All things must pass".
Just like Gas...lmao
I could be mistaken but I thought zombies (in films) could be killed by cutting off of the head?
Snidley Whipsnae
"I could be mistaken but I thought zombies (in films) could be killed by cutting off of the head?"
Yep or a bullet to the brain. That is why head shots are so common in video games.
But traditionally Zombies have the mouth filled with salt and sewn shut. A also recall something about quartering the body and burying those in different locations.
...hand saw, check...silver bullet, check...crucifix, check...wooden stake, check...garlic, check...salt/needle/thread, check. OK...I need a bigger backpack.
Snidley Whipsnae
silver bullet, check = werewolves
crucifix, check...wooden stake, check...garlic = vampires.
'Be Prepared'...the ol' Boy Scout Motto! :)
If I avoid Wall St and Transylvania?
Updated DOW chart:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
Golly GS. I am so happy that you brought your insight to the topic we are engaged in discussing. Your insight on Russian ties to Iran and how that all plays out to destabilize the region were timely and spot on.
In addition, your critique of the authors level of research helped us all see deeper into this area that so few have read much about.
Thanks for your great contribution and its a pleasure to read what you have written.
By the way, nice ad.
Your take on the situation seems a bit biased.
I have nothing against Israel, that said, what the situation boils down to is; does the world need Israel more than the world needs oil and gas?
Israel is a big military power in the mid east with lots of nukes...Isreal has already made it known that if they are attacked with nukes that they will launch an 'all horizon' retaliation with nukes. If that threat does not stop Iran anything the US does will not stop Iran...and...If Israel really wanted peace in their sphere, would they be grabbing and building on land that does not belong to them?
Anywho...there is no way that we can know for certain that Iran does not already have nuke capabilities. Iran has conducted trade with N Korea, China, Russia and Pakistan...all nuke powers. One really dumb way to find out is to attack Iran and see what happens next.
Non-scientists seem to believe that making a nuclear weapon is facile. It isn't and requires extensive testing, modeling and high level engineering to know that it will actually function (ie fission will actually take place in a chain reaction). For example, many top scientists concluded that less than 20% of the Russian nuclear weapons stockpile would actually function during the height of the cold war (Scientific American). Iran doesn't possess the scientific infrastructure and talent to do such testing, and neither does North Korea whose two tests were total low yield duds with not much more explosive power than conventional TNT. So, this whole article is pointless except as bad science fiction. We can easily detect if Iran or any other country conducts an underground test from the seimic signature. Until we detect a successful test, this is useless worrying. Of course, countries like Japan, Germany etc. do have the scientific expertise and respect for the scientific method to create a nuclear device but chose not to do so as having such devices does not make you safer-free markets, individual freedom and responsilibity and respect for the rule of law make a nation strong. Israel does have those characteristics and thus is a natural ally of the U.S. A culture with a respect for education, research and individualism (a central tenet of the Jewish culture and their singular contribution to Western civilization) will always outperform a collectivist society based upon organized superstition (i.e. Islam) like Iran.
Indeed, in 1944 and 45, not, they used extensive supercomputer modeling and hundreds of real tests were required before they got it right, despite the superior technology available at the time. Indeed, they did not test the U-235 based bomb design even once, unless you consider the detonation above Hiroshima a "test". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Boy
1945 dude. A U-235 bomb is almost child's play once you have the U-235 purified enough. The scientists who designed the first one didn't think it would need any full scale testing. That's how sure they were.
As to the technology of shaped charges needed to make a plutonium bomb work, you can ask the families of hundreds of dead American soldiers whether there are any iranians working in the field of shaped charges. The problems in '45 have been surmounted a zillion fold. You can buy the electronics needed to pull this off over the counter, anywhere, without raising suspicion. The explosives needed to do this can be synthesized by competent chemists, of which there are thousands in Iran.
I was trained in physics, spoke to Manhatten alumni, and have to mostly back him up, here.
Uranium bombs are highly purity sensitive - US spent a freaking fortune getting that done in WW2. Easier now, BUT the problems involved were still enough to kill the South African project (minimum charge weights were so high as to make the weapons undeliverable).
Plutonium bombs are geometry sensitive, need to have perfect timing of the component charges of explosive lens. The explosives are easy, but the switching is not. I gather the US works hard to monitor the sort of super-fast switches needed, as they are not so useful for anything else, but I don't imagine they would be impossible for a sovereign Country to produce (and could be tested in secret ad libitum).
As I recall our failure to prevent Pakistan from getting the older switches (Klystrons?) is what allowed them to become a nuclear power. Not sure about their rival India.
Jeeebus H, is this still 1980? Last time I checked, it was 2010, 65 years after the first U-235 bomb was detonated for the first (and so far the last) time. I can go buy a multi-GHz bandwidth oscilloscope over the counter today without raising an eyebrow, and we've got people thinking fast switches are hard to get, or the means to develop them are top secret.
1945 dude. 1945. As to plutonium bombs, the switching speed problem in electronics is ancient history in terms of progress in that field. Ancient. Also, physics is not a state secret, as you'd know if you've studied physics, which I do not doubt.
Yesterday I posted information about US contingency plans to invade Israel from Turkey. That post was removed by the editors. Unlike President Truman, President Obama does not need Jewish votes to implement his agenda. US strategic interests are best served by the free flow of oil from the Middle East. Israel's very existence has cost the US billions in treasure and countless lives. Iran with nukes is not a threat to US interests in the ME save for Israel. Israel knows this and has very effectively lobbied Congress over the years for its support. Israel will act in its national interest as will every other affected nation, including the US.
Carl, have another hot dog. Grab a cold one. Think this through. You are talking about Turkey, that would not support U.S. in Iraq, pulled the plug on 3d Division staging through for ground attack. Be more efficient to pack up II MEF on East Coast USofA and land them.
Or, here's a good one, we'll stand up "Bright Star" and fake Zahal out of their shorts. That'll do the trick.
But Turkey? nfw
- Ned
Carl M,
"Yesterday I posted information about US contingency plans to invade Israel from Turkey"
First, IF this were even a remote event,it would be suicide for the USA,and mark the beginning of End times Events......that I am not so sure, already are not in motion.
Are you sure you meant Israel,(maybe Iran?).
Bollocks. A nuclear Iran is a menace to all the other oil and gas producing states bordering the straits, independently of Isreal's existence.
What evidence is there to prove that Iran wants to take over neighbouring countries?
They understand that US will provide other gulf nations with military assistance at the drop of a hat.
Iran is NPT signatory, IAEA compliant I mean what more should they do to convince people to leave them alone
There is one thing being a skeptic and other being obsessed.
Stop the drama and let people move on with their lives.
Stop the drama and let people move on with their lives.
Dude (chick?), I'm all for letting the iranian people move on with their lives.
"Israel is a big military power in the mid east with lots of nukes...Isreal has already made it known that if they are attacked with nukes that they will launch an 'all horizon' retaliation with nukes."
Israel is actively engaged in staging planes, personnel, and military material covertly in Turkey and other countries for a raid on Iran prior to that nation even getting nuclear capability, much less striking at Israel. This is not a strike in self defense, this is a pre-emptive action.
This is the stance of Israel, not what you have written.
LeBalance,
" This is not a strike in self defense, this is a pre-emptive action."
Umm..yeah, WHY?.................(pre-emptive,say's it all).
Israeli aggression?, I must be deaf, and blind, I have not heard the leader/s of Israel vowing to wipe IRAN, or any other country off the face of the earth.
If YOUR ass was sitting in Israel 24/7/365, what might your take be then?.
What I wrote is true but does not exclude your premis that Israel has other plans in the offing. In fact, I have no doubt that Israel has many plans, as do all large military organizations.
My main point was; who will be thrown under the bus when the choice is between Israel and oil/gas for the world economy. Do you have any doubt which will be chosen? Hell, I have no doubt which GS would choose.
Duplicate
"My main point was; who will be thrown under the bus when the choice is between Israel and oil/gas for the world economy. "
The United States is consistently for free navigation of the seas, particularly for trade goods That's one constant of U.S. policy since there was a U.S. The U.S. took over this role from various European powers, most particularly from the former British Empire, and is unlikely to ever cede that principle . If Iran wants to continue to have a military(as opposed to a collection of smoking holes), it will not frack with the passage of oil through the straits of Hormuz. This is fully independent of everyone's fantasies about Israel.
I just wished to note what Israel's stance was. It is certainly partially what you wrote, for the PR cameras and the "I am not to blame, I am an angel" facade, but under the reality of the wrestling with knives in the trenches, the Great Game is for the West to conquer the East. And at this point there is very little East left.
There are no cute kittens on settees basking in the sun. Only hidden Israeli fighter-bombers in Iranian neighbors (illegally if discovered, but with a wink otherwise).
Your comment added value, no doubt, the succeeding conversation has added body and breadth (maybe).
Nice backdrop to a Tom Clancy wet dream. This is strictly MSM level stuff, why it is here on ZH only Leo knows. Actually I expect better from TC, as in he does better research.
Let's examine the first sentence.
Russia is much more than a shadow ally of Iran. Russia, as a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, has meet with Iran in meetings of that organization with the goal of bringing Iran into that partnership. Shadow ally? >>> Error number #1.
Islamofascist? Wow! The pot calls the kettle in order to deflect its own identity. USA = Fascist. That is a given. So if Iran is, isn't that the flavor of the year? And then to add Islamo- to the label. Well let's say the United States is Judeo-Christo-Fascist! Let's get those nasty JC-Fascists, before they take over the world! >>> Standard mob enraging slogan tactic #1.
And that is *the* first sentence.
+100,000
What is this psycho obsession with people wanting to murder the Persians?
(Sorry, rhetorical question again. Obviously, to steal their oil and radium.)
One listens to the neocon pansies claiming to be Republicans harping against corporate shill, Elena Kagan, proclaiming her a "progressive" -- complete nonsense, so those faux crats can respond, "See, she must be good if THEY are against her."
The same faux crats that voted for the Supreme Court nominations of the most pro-corporate shills ever to sit on SCOTUS.
Sarge,
after what Ginsberg did to the private sector retirement funds, you'd have to add "pro-government (or statist?) shill" to that list as well. See e.g.:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/20/indiana-pension-fund-chry_n_205...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_State_Police_Pension_Trust_v._Chrysler
- Ned
Hey, I hate Apartheid Israel as much as the next guy, but from any metric, Iran is certainly worse. Islamofascist is a label which, while true (they are in fact fascists who happen to be Islamic), the only insult is to Islam, which, just like Christianity and Judaism, runs the gamut from libertarian to ultra socialist, and shold not be characterized by the political and economic conditions in one country which adheres to it.
If you want a fairly unbiased, quantitative explination of the issues that make Iran fascist, check here: http://heritage.org/index/Country/Iran That at least covers the economic perspective. Socially, they are on par with Israel, which is to say terrible if you aren't in the ruling majority.
Tmosley, you are an idiot. Where is your outrage for apartheid Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran, etc. etc?. All these countries suppress Christians and even different sects of muslims. You are just a racist swine.
ahem, correction. Iran actually has some jewish members of its parliament.
sure it has racism like any country, but it remains a multicultural state, having maintained itself as a nation of many peoples and religeons for centuries.
doesnt fit the convenient narrative, that information, does it?
". . . from any metric, Iran is certainly worse"
Wow, you have all the metrics for this?! Gee, you must be an
econometrician or maybe even an mathanthropologigician! I'm really
into math myself. Please share at least some of these fascinating metrics with
the rest of us just for fun. Btw, since the list is infinitely long, just
give us the highlights. Oh and don't forget to include the proof that all the elements of this infinite set (the "badMetric"s) evaluate to badMetric(Iran) > badMetric(Israel) >= "bad" (how are you defining this? Something like "bad = Pi*Hitler**2" maybe?).
While the "Israel" part of the inequality appears trivial, the "Iran" part is a bit perplexing. I'm sure glad we have rock-sci's like you to figure this kinda stuff out!
Thanks a bunch, fellow (but superior) math person!
"Islam, which, just like Christianity and Judaism, runs the gamut from libertarian"
Any examples of "libertarian" Islam? Proponents thereof? Koranic passages in that vein? Do tell!
State Dept. wants to find the moderate Hezb'allah to deal with, lol. - Ned
They deserve the Neville Chamberlain award, for the whole decade, they really do.
Can't wait to read your contribution? Please direct us to a site where we can wank pff to your "wet dream"....:-)
As you consider the article to be Brilliant +1000, please do not let me disuade you in any way. It is really an outstanding article of its type. I look forward to another contribution from the author with all my heart.
"Iran looms over the Strait of Hormuz like a Colussus. This narrow sea lane is by far the world’s most important oil chokepoint due to its daily flow of 16.5-17 million barrels, or roughly 40 percent of all seaborne oils (20 th percent of oil traded worldwide). At its narrowest point the channel is only 21 miles wide."
Guess what? Iran has been "nuclear" by virtue of this fact alone, for the 100 years oil's been exported through that Strait. Pissing and moaning about uranium in light of the fact that the US oil imports will decline 20% in 24 hours when some idiot decides to prevent something that, by virture of geography alone, already exists is an exercise in stupidity.
Brilliant!!!! +1000
Brilliant!!!! +1000
Sqworl You are a clown :)
Brilliant???? So how is this drivel brilliant. There are facts on the ground and then there are Zionists wet dreams. Maybe the drivel avove can be turned a screen play starring Chuck Norris. You know one of those Brilliant movies shot in Israel and produced by Golan Globus. Van Dam is looking for a gig too. I love fantasy films where Israel saves the USA from the evil Arabs. Reality is that a few dozen goat herders in south Lebanon destroyed an Israeli armor column. The Israeli pussies ran all the way back to the border.