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Ireland Cancels All Remaining 2010 Bond Auctions Due To Market "Turbulence"
Apparently in Ireland, a global stock market that surges up 10% in a month to celebrate the latest obliteration of the purchasing power of the American middle class is considered "turbulence." This is precisely the excuse given by Irish PM Brian Cowen when asked why he has cancelled all bond auctions for the rest of the year. Surely, the market is buying it. Cowen also added that he doesn't need funds at rates of 6.8 to 6.9%. What is hilarious is that he will need the funds much more in 3 months when the rates are double that, now that the country is openly nationalizing each and every bank, and will fund these "acquisitions" with tens of billions it doesn't have.
From Bloomberg:
Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen said that his government decided to cancel bond auctions for the rest of the year because of “turbulence” in bond markets, and the state is already funded into next year. He made the comments in an interview with national broadcaster RTE.
“We are funded until next May,” Cowen said. “There has been such turbulence in the markets, since we don’t require those funds immediately why would we be going to get funds at rates such as 6.8 or 6.9 percent.”
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....or they are getting ready to default.
Yes! I think you could be right.
September 17, 2010
DUBLIN — Ireland’s Finance Ministry and the International Monetary Fund sought to calm markets Friday after a newspaper report on the possibility of a bailout of the country sent investors running for cover.
Ireland’s Department of Finance said there was “absolutely no truth to a rumor concerning external assistance.” In a statement, it said the article was “based on a local misinterpretation of a research report.”
thanks for posting, definite confirmation they are going to default.
i did not have sexual relations with that woman.
the 9/11 perpetrators did meet with iraqi intelligence.
I agree, I think they are about to implode and are trying to find a way to do it quietly.
Let's see, do I cut the red, blue or black wire? Augghh! There's two red wires!
Don't be so silly, everyone knows that sovereigns cannot default! If the creditor doesn't like to be paid in freshly printed notes, well, that's their problem.
Blaming it on the debtor is just a pathetic attempt by the creditors to divert attention away from their lack of due diligence.
Almost certainly not, for two reasons. One, ever since the crisis began the Irish government has shown every sign of fanatical loyalty to the TBTF keep-on-smiling philosophy. It had to be dragged kicking and screaming to the point where it would consider loss-sharing for subordinated bank bondholders; we've had to listen to months and months of government rhetoric about how any bank restructuring would somehow be equvalent to a sovereign default. It very understandably doesn't want to touch the EFSF. It's very unlikely to turn around and casually pop off the first west European sovereign default in a few decades (and iirc the first in the history of independent Ireland).
Two, Ireland has a colossal deficit even before interest payments and this year's bank bailouts. Even if the government were acting with Machiavellian ruthlessness in the national interest, the smart strategy would be to keep shrinking the deficit over several years (four is what the EU is demanding), slurping down all the EFSF credit it can get - and then default after the deficit is largely just interest payments. Of course this is basically the strategy that many people believe Greece is following, or possibly effectively following without being fully aware of it.
So the government almost certainly has no intention of defaulting, and certainly no intention of defaulting in the near future. Any likely new government will almost certainly stick to this policy, too. The question is whether market conditions and other circumstances will allow the Irish government to avoid recourse to the EFSF and maybe eventual default.
Actually, I think the single most likely surprise outcome is that the Germans (finally!) throw us a bone on our bank bailout. Watch this space.
This is gonna be one hell of a ShitStorm in Ireland soon
Ready to buy some nice farms in Munster?
I would not touch anything comming from Ireland with a 6 foot pole, even for free
Munster has some of the most productive dairy grassland in the world - if EU agricultural cheques stop flowing the price of land would collapse to a point where these lands would be a good bargain - but by then of course the whole country would be open rebellion and it may be unwise to take land without military backing.
Shorthorns, bitches!!!!!!!!
Kerry cattle if things go completly pear shaped - Friesians if we can still get oil based fertiliser on the fields and diesel in the tractors.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_cattle
sorry repeated another bullshit comment...........
must keep the bovine comments to a minimum.
Finishing up breeding time here. Cattle, that is.
I'd prefer a feudal castle.
When Cromwell used gunpowder it was not much protection - its best to ingratiate yourself withen the community without becoming part of it - this was the most successful tactic for elites in the long run.
This is the 2010-11 translation of:
"We are well-capitalized"
Perhaps they have adopted the Spanish/Greek accounting model?
even if they default........wouldn't the media come up with an explanation for why the market rallied on the same day like oh "At least the market knows now what's gonna happen with Ireland because the market hates uncertainty"......(insert robotroll picture here)
If they would get ready for default wouldn't they first rake all the money in the can?
This situation can only be expressed in my best and most eloquent Saxon - we are being fucked senseless.
Heavy foundling I can learn to handle but being buggered every day requires serious amounts of stamina.
Good to hear from you, Dork. You cool?
Yea - it can be tough reacquainting yourself with this slurry pit after a nice sabbatical.
Government Bonds are a nation's bondage into debt that is owed to another nation at best, a group of billionaire investors at worst.
Bond = Bondage
Mortgage = Deathgrip
When Ireland defaults, the sun will still rise in the East and set in the West of Ireland. People will still wake up, shower, eat breakfast, get on with their day and LIVE.
DEFAULT NOW. Fuck the billionaires that have plundered the treasuries of the world. Do it quick before these bastards can cover their losses and convert paper into gold and other resources.
Let the billionaire bondage masters eat shit.
you're kidding ... te Irish ripped off everything rippable in the last 10 yrs
True that. The irish citizens will show them how its done. Then the goverment can follow suit.
All good until the next Iceland volcano blows.
What a change of heart! Lol! It's not that many days since the last 1,5bn auction where they sold 8 and 4 yr paper at yields of 6,02% and 4,76% respectively. Why would they borrow at these levels if things are not as bad as the "wolf pack" says and if they are fully funded from here to at least eternity? Maybe they should call Moody's to downgrade Ireland a notch or two and get to enjoy the same kind of decline in yields throughout the curve as Spain did today.
What makes him think anyone will spend more on Irish bonds 8 months from now when things have deteriorated even farther?
Got a collective yawn from the market. The VXX (I understand the deterioration issue) just seems so cheap to me. Whistling past the graveyard, the markets seem to be. The Irish banking system is a mess...
wait till it gets cheaper. hold them horses.
move along, nothing to see here....V shaped recovery in progress
Fed radiation heats the market's crust, warm bonds rise, cold bonds descend - turbulence.
"Turbulence"...makes me think of a freshly pulled pint of Guiness.
Cheers!
Ahh, Indeed, the country along with the rest of the world has a ferocious thirst for debt.
When were their bond sales supposed to happen? You would think there is a default/restructure event before then.
The turbulence they speak of might mean they just dont want to enter a market where, a few hours before an auction, some non-entity from any investment bank in the world can release any old rumor that blows open the spreads, meaning that the two million working people in Ireland have to fork out another few billion in interest.
Germany - "We won't inflate"
Ireland - "We won't default"
Spain - "We won't foreclose"
Italy - "We won't report honestly"
Greece - "We won't work"
Hungary - "F.U."
France - "We surrender to GS"
Britain - "We sold our gold and bought RBS? What the fuck?""
If they have a government owned company they should try and IPO it (or secondary, whatever) much like Brazil did with Petrobras.
Captain Obvious here: of course this is Ireland asking for a bail out. They just announced earlier today they need yet another 10% of GDP for bank bailouts. Negotiations are underway, you can bank on it.
Shirley, pay the man.
Watch the Bonds they are going to get whacked pretty soon.. 6.5% for Irish ten yr Tsy? 10-12% possible by Yr end.?
Ireland may be a free country but who will actually own it financially anymore,in fact who owns what any more.The effects of this cannot be contained any longer the cancer has to spread.
No they obviously don't need money, that's why they're getting 10 billion euros for these bailouts by raiding the state pension fund. Which as you can imagine was already woefully underfunded to deal with the aging demographic.
I've got an Irish ancestor who was kidnapped and sold into slavery in the US ("indentured servitude") as a teenager. Hope it doesn't get that bad again.
The Bond holders in the Eu are quite a generous bunch, accepting such a small yield on bonds when their Countries are in chaos. How much longer will their generosity last, who will blink first and head for an exit?
The biggest mistake Ireland made was getting mixed up with the Rothschilds. Everything they touch rots.
Well now - another Skittle falls
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/sep/30/ireland-banks-bailout-allied-irish
And Spain downgraded.
TD your in need of a holiday.
"We're protesting here because the fact that the Govt isn't thinking about jobs, it's thinking about bailing out banks. And we feel that there are too many people on the streets, and the economy is in tatters because of that--reinvesting in the economy--but just reinvesting in the banks."
- Irish Female protester, BBC, Sept 29 2010
"Boats are being closed for the season, you know, in order to make sure that there's enough money there to bail out the banks."
- Irish Male protester, BBC, Sept 29 2010
And then this, a few hours later;
"...but the interest bill in effect is an additional 1.7 billion euros, about. I can understand why taxpayers are outraged at having this additional interest to take. But you have to look at the fact that as a state we are already borrowing 19 billion [euros] more than we are spending on ourselves. So put the figure in that context, it is a manageable figure. ..."
- Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan, ABC-2 Breakfast, Oct 1 2010
That's got to make you feel a whole lot better. It's really just the context of the way in which you think about it, that's so extremely disturbing, and not the actual amount, or the fact that a failed zombie bank, is getting it.
You've just got to hold your tongue the right way when you think about it, and you'll be ok with it, despite the locals were already protesting the previous massive bank bailout, like yesterday, and rejecting resulting austerity policies, angered by the second recession and unemployment already at >14%, and angry at Eurozone policy/law and severe deficit contraction (that transformed overnight into unheard of deficit expansion, but not for actual human beings, only for the swine).
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Every protester in every country that I saw speak yesterday said things like this (BTW, all the quotes in this comment are verbatim);
"We spent a hundred years earning the rights that we have as workers in this country, and I don't think the first thing we need to do is lose them and the banks should be the ones who are paying for this crisis."
- Spanish Female protester, Sept 29 2010
"We don't want the brunt of he crisis dumped on to the poorest in countries, or for the EU to go ahead with cost cutting policies that always hurt the neediest the most."
- Annelie Buntenbach - German Union Leader, Sept 29 2010
None of the protesters in any of the 12 countries involved said anything different to this common theme.
The most extraordinary thing yesterday was the way in which the state media tried to downplay the scale of these protests. BBC reporters were literally asking protesters why they thought there had been such a poor turn-out to the rallies. And doing so in front of streets packed full of people, as far as the eye could see! Tell me that was not deliberately intended to 'officially' downplay the reality of the situation.
As far as I can deduce, these were the biggest European mass-demonstrations since the end of the Soviet-Bloc and fall of the Berlin Wall. I suspect these are just the beginnings, but the northern hemisphere winter will put it on hold until Spring (when I expect the world will be deep into a new and longer recession) and we will see an econo-political explosion at that point, on the streets of the developed-world, as we have not seen since WWII.
So expect a helluva lot of propagandizing about "new and unforeseen security threats", and the planning many repressive and coercive measures and laws in the interim. That's the number one thing to keep an eye on now for we will get lied to as never before in this area. The only response is; show us any actual tangible independently verifiable evidence for any of what you claim to be the case.
The latest EU 'terrorist threat' warning, from Pakistan (on the same day as these planned civil protests, funny that...), has ZERO material actual evidence behind it if you examine the media 'reports'. Just some hazy theoretical threat somehow related to stepped-up Predator strikes on the other side of the planet (The WSJ reporting is the most outrageous example of the fine art of making nothing look like something, a blatant fear-campaign without a shred of actual material basis). Watch the ludicrous PBS Newshour segment with WSJ's reporter on Sept 29th 2010 if you doubt this, she offered not a single shred of actual evidence, of any kind, yet at one point she asserted she had "researched it for weeks". Pay attention to where she says 'theory' and 'plot' and 'sources'. Not anything that can be checked, not a damn sausage! Lucky she warned us ... whew!
The problem is the fine art propaganda is all about telling 90% truth and only 10% lies. 100% lies does not work WSJ (and it's kind of galling to have to point that out, and indicates that they generally get away with it, because their audience are such gullible chumps who don't even understand what constitutes 'evidence' and 'intelligence').
This instance tells you what's really going on, so pay close attention to such deliberate perception-operations about state-security. The general public is being deliberately fucked-with by professional security service deceivers, and agents-provocateur. They will definitely concoct fake circumstances (possibly violent) that will look very real superficially, in order to quash valid mass demonstrations next year simply because laws against these demonstrations have no hope whatever of working now. We're well past that stage.
The European public's message is unanimous; no to austerity, yes to mass bank failures and their bankruptcy, yes to protection of deposits, and the Government must immediately stop supporting swine-ish banks at the expense of the poor and start supporting the people and their jobs.
For Ireland though it's new uber-bailout, one the same day as these massive protests, implies;
1. Sovereign debt-default risk just increased dramatically
2. Another credit downgrade is certain
3. requires more mandatory bank loan-loss reserves
4. Any remaining solvency of Irish banks just disappeared
5. Any remaining liquidity in Irish banks just dried up
6. Any lingering profitability of Irish banks in now gone
7. Steep rises in Irish bond auction rates assured
8. Exponential rise in Irish CDOs
The Irish Govt understood all of this before it took these suicidal actions.
Why?
This tells you the Irish situation was (and is) so immediately desperate and the counter-party blowback so shattering that if they didn't do it, it would be far worse, for every bank in the country, and elsewhere. So, while verging on total panic they did something that no sane Govt would ever do, in another situation.
Metaphorically, they are still at the surface, panicking, trying to grasp something to support them so they can manage a few more precious gulps of air before they go under and drag down the PIIGS banks, and the EU banking system in general.
For the Irish Govt to claim this is the final bailout is also entirely disingenuous because the bank losses almost directly correspond with falling house prices. It's entirely possible that despite the huge and constant price falls already, that during their Depression, for that's what it is, house prices could easily fall more than 25% further--or more. So this bailout is quite unlikely to be the last.
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The really mysterious thing is that the Politicians somehow never ever seem to get the public's clear message.
That Bank solvency isn't actually among their primary constitutional responsibilities.
But you'd never know this. Probably should address that to clarify it for them 100% because for some odd reason not a single politician on planet Earth seems to grasp it.
This is of course purely coincidental.
Indeed, the outcomes for particular banks are not the Government's Constitutional responsibility, in any way ... so if you think about it ... in that context ... Minister Brian Lenihan, your confusion, crossed-purpose double-standard may just fade away.
well put.
We're all being had. Until at least some politicians do their homework and realize they are being used as tools for the vile hopes and rotten dreams of central bankers(who are incapable of anything but trouble), this will go on. Then there's the other pols completely bought off, and of course the ones who are only in it for the bennies and take orders without question.
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