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Ireland Government Crumbles As Green Party Pulls Out Of Ruling Coalition

Tyler Durden's picture


It has been a while since we had one of those "before Asia opens" kind of Sundays. Today just may be one. BBC has just reported that the Irish Green party has pulled out of the ruling coalition with Fianna Fail which is "expected to bring forward the general election from 11 March." In other words suddenly the entire Irish "rescue", taken for granted for over a month, will have to be reexamined, once the new ruling party, which will certainly be from the current opposition reevaluates the terms. Elections are now expected to come some time in mid-February. Look for peripheral bond spreads to go whooosh tomorrow.

From BBC:

The party's announcement, after a meeting in Dublin, follows a
decision on Saturday by PM Brian Cowen to quit as leader of his Fianna
Fail party.

Mr Cowen had said he would stay on as PM until the election, a move opponents had described as "farcical".

The Greens' decision removes the ruling coalition's two-seat majority.

The Green party is having a press conference right now which can be watched here:

Full green party statement:

Green TDs and Senators leave Government


Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen and thank you for joining us.

On November 22 last we said that an election should be held early this
year because of the events surrounding the IMF bailout. On that occasion
we identified four key priorities, which needed to be addressed before
this election could take place. These were: concluding financial
arrangements with the EU/IMF; producing a four-year economic plan;
passing Budget 2011; and passing the Finance Bill to give effect to that

Today, three of these four objectives have been completed. We believe it
is possible to complete the Finance Bill quickly before going to a
general election.

We believe that this election is absolutely necessary. The Irish people
have begun to lose confidence in politics and in the political process.
They have watched aghast the conduct in Dáil Éireann of political

The Irish people expect and deserve better.

For a very long time we in the Green Party have stood back in the hope
that Fianna Fáil could resolve persistent doubts about their party
leadership. A definitive resolution of this has not yet been possible.
And our patience has reached an end.

Because of these continuing doubts, the lack of communication and the
breakdown in trust, we have decided that we can no longer continue in

We will remain true to our promise to support the Finance Bill from the
Opposition benches, with the promised cooperation of the opposition
parties. Yesterday, Eamon Ryan initiated contact with the main
opposition party in this regard. And they have undertaken to facilitate
the passage of the Finance Bill.

I understand that similar undertakings have now been given by other opposition parties.

We hope that they will keep their word.

We also hope that the Fianna Fáil party will make every effort to fast-track this legislation.

It has been a very rare privilege to serve in government. It would of
course have been preferable if our time in government had not coincided
with the worst economic downturn in our nation’s history. It has meant
having to take the most difficult decisions that any party could have

We did so it was because it was the right thing to do.

I am proud of our many achievements in the areas of planning, renewable
energy, energy-standards of buildings, water conservation and other
environmental areas. I’m proud that we gave rights to gay couples
through civil partnership, and that we persisted in our belief that
education and the arts should be protected. These two areas are
absolutely vital for our economic recovery.

I regret obviously that we did not have more time to complete our other legislation, which is very well advanced.

I would like to thank our party members for their steadfast and loyal
support in the face of unprecedented challenges. I’d like to thank our
hard-working staff and our families who have had to endure the pressures
that go with being in government.

Our record is one of responsibility, reform, steadfastness and creativity.

And these are the very characteristics that will enable this country to
get back on a path of sustainable recovery, underpinned by a very
different set of values.



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Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:05 | 897045 DCon
DCon's picture

All parties will support the Finance Bill to legalise the IMF/EU bailout


Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:42 | 897112 unky
unky's picture

Agreed. It doesnt make a difference which party is ruling. Just imagine we could elect someone and we could achieve fundamental change in anything - it will never happen!

All parties are working for the globalist elite and thus on its way to a one world currency. They will force them under the rescue "umbrella" bailout package

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:47 | 897304 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

This is better. I'm particularly proud of my latest creation. its highest form:

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 19:54 | 897784 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

Nice work, Turd. I linked it over at www.Gold-Silver.US/Forum , and titled it "Jim Sinclair Passes the $1600 Gold Baton to Turd Ferguson"


I hope you don't fumble it!

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 15:27 | 897381 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

All parties are working for the globalist elite...

They do what they're paid to do.


Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:57 | 897133 Mad Mad Woman
Mad Mad Woman's picture

I wouldn't be so sure of that. We're in a time of turmoil right now and almost anything can happen. I don't see it as a done deal. Far from it.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:52 | 897192 unky
unky's picture

Ireland is not Tunesia...

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:58 | 897203 attst487
attst487's picture

However, they better start checking their politicians luggage.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 22:23 | 897992 bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

For pots o' gold, lucky charms, and whiskey.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 22:27 | 897997 bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

Guerilla war is still in the generational memory of the Irish.

You'r right, its not Tunesia.  In fact, it may be more violent.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:03 | 897214 Yits and the Yimrum
Yits and the Yimrum's picture

these socialists are like cockroaches, good luck with getting them throw out.

Some guy said Who do you vote for?  You don't, you get out the word that the demo-rethuglican shakespeare is bullshit, and needs to be ended.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:08 | 897050 Jack Donaghy
Jack Donaghy's picture

Finance Bill will still pass. This will just lead to the total annihilation of the Greens. *rubs self all over with glee*

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:12 | 897062 Quintus
Quintus's picture

I was under the impression that the Labour and FG parties have already made clear that they will oppose the Bill?  Have they changed their positions?  Seems like a vote-loser to me, as public opposition seems to be running pretty high right now.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:19 | 897064 Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

I am pretty sure that Labour have said that they will support the passage of the Bill.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:20 | 897071 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Shows how much they really care about the 'Working Man' then.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:29 | 897090 Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

Communists/Socialists care about nothing apart from their twisted and discredited political theories and their positions of power.  I am amazed that the 'working man' still votes for, and donate his hard earned money to, Labour parties all over the world.  Some people are just really, really stupid.  Sadly there are a lot of stupid people in both Ireland and the UK.  It is abundantly clear that the 'working man' just loves to be shit upon, in fact, he revels in it.   

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:30 | 897091 Quintus
Quintus's picture

True dat.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:11 | 897143 Devout Republican
Devout Republican's picture

I know the day is coming when Jesus will return and give us true free market capitalism!

Palin 2012!

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:53 | 897193 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You do know that both parties are equally at fault for destroying the free market in this country, don't you?

Joy, another dumbshit partisan troll.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:33 | 897271 Rick Masters
Rick Masters's picture

tmosley: most of these trolls come from the sewer so I think its time we step into the guttter to squash them. hahaha Seriously, It always makes me wonder how people have such allegiance to either of the parties cause bothe the Rs and Ds have allegiance to no one except themselves and their banker patrons.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 15:16 | 897362 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Oh in that case you don't want to head over to BusinessInsider. Full of "Obama is the antichrist!!11eleventyone". Not that I don't think Obama is a moron, but partisan muppets who sit and accuse the "other side" (when it's so blatant - and as Carroll Quigley confirmed in "Tragedy & Hope" - both sides are controlled by the same group of people) get really, really tiring.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 16:28 | 897501 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

Just to clarify... if you think President Obama is a moron, how would you describe President Bush?

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 16:53 | 897553 JohnG
JohnG's picture

The last name there pretty much sums it up.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 16:54 | 897555 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture


Sun, 01/23/2011 - 22:20 | 897985 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

they are both complicit.  one would be hard pressed to imagine a fantasy that so proved nader's assertion in 2000 that the two parties are much the same as the back to back (or belly to belly?) administrations that followed that assertion. 

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 04:43 | 898281 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Obama's just a useful idiot. He'll do as he's told.

Bush? Oil executive, hiring an oil industry veteran as VP, and they invade Iraq within 2 years. But it DEFINITELY wasn't for oil. And "Kennyboy" and his fraud... nah, Bush CERTAINLY didn't know anything about that. And don't get me started on the bailouts.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 00:10 | 898095 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

A complicit fighter pilot with better grades than the Goracle and the guts to release them unlike the bamster..  How is that?

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:13 | 897233 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture






That was some funny shit!

(I didn't junk you)

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 16:17 | 897473 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Your next deep hypnosis session is Sunday at 7.00am

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:12 | 897144 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Let's not restrict that condemnation to the UK and Ireland.  Here in the U.S., the dems regularly posture as the party of the working man yet regard actual contact with such people as the equivalent of kissing a sore ridden leper and actually make the working man's life much harder, on the whole.   Yet, especially among certain subsets of older voters, there are hordes of fools who actually think the Obamas, Pelosis and Schumers of the world do nothing but work tirelessly for them. 

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:43 | 897177 Rick Masters
Rick Masters's picture

"working man" could also be aptly called "the middle class" and if not the democrats then who exactly should a middle class person vote for? And while we are talking about discredited theories like communism, I would throw in the Chicago school's theories as discredited and opposed to middle class needs. It's failed anytime it's been implemented and always leads to the concentration of wealth and bust cycles. I'd like your thoughts. Please spare me the name calling. I'm here for honest debate not politics.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:01 | 897209 attst487
attst487's picture

Nobody for president in 2012!

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:27 | 897258 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

They need to add, "None of the above" to the ballot.

If "None of the above" wins, then no-one is sent for that seat and that electoral area will vote on bills through referendum.  No bill can be passed until all referendum have been tallied.

Of course, with vote stuffing and disqualification the issue would be decided before anyone actually voted.

If "none of the above" is elected president/vice president then... we be fooked.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:42 | 897292 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

Using the slogans, "Nobody's Perfect" and "Nobody Cares."

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 17:59 | 897649 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Hello . I am for me!

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 22:31 | 898003 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

ron paul.  the most dangerous policies of the bush/obama administration would be substantially reversed (if he doesn't turn out to be a liar as well) as they are largely controlled by the president (foreign, national security, economic, law enforcement, military).  ending crony capitalism and the endless bailout/endless war syndrome would bring the possibility of organic economic growth much closer (dear to the pocketbook and wallet of the impoverished middle class).

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 15:17 | 897365 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

"the National parties and their presidential candidates, with the Eastern Establishment assiduously fostering the process behind the scenes, moved closer together and nearly met in the centre with almost identical candidates and platforms, although the process was concealed, as much as possible, by the revival of obsolescent and meaningless war cries and slogans" - Carroll Quigley, "Tragedy & Hope", pg 1247.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 15:20 | 897370 snowball777
snowball777's picture

You're confused as to why the "we want to take away your entitlements" platform isn't a hit with the octagenarians?


Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:21 | 897108 M.B. Drapier
M.B. Drapier's picture

While Fine Gael is offering to do whatever it takes to push it through by the end of next week!

EDIT: Wait, but what's this? The Fianna Fáil finance minister insists the bill can't be passed in a week? If that story's true (or if FF sticks to it whether it's true or not), then either the Greens are in for a second humiliating failure to end this government as soon as they promised to, or there will be an election before the Finance Bill is passed - several weeks of high suspense and market tension until the new government meekly passes the thing right at the beginning of its term.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:29 | 897263 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Political circuses, bitchez!

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:23 | 897079 Jack Donaghy
Jack Donaghy's picture

They've agreed to support it in exchange for an early election. Mind you the Opposition Labour Party has tabled a confidence motion in the Government which is going to be a very tight vote. 

Independents may not support it. The Greens, who have just left Government, may/may not support it. Fine Gael may support it. 

In all reality however Ireland is in the middle of serious political uncertainty. One way or another though. A new Government will exist in 50 days. 

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:33 | 897098 Quintus
Quintus's picture

They've agreed to support it in exchange for an early election.

So, selling out your country and consigning it to eternal penury in exchange for the minor political advantage to their party of getting an earlier grab at power is OK in their book?  Jesus Christ!  And to think that politicians wonder why they are universally held in contempt.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:39 | 897171 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Sounds like republicans, oh wait, sounds like democrats, oh wait, sounds like republicans, oh wait, sounds like democrats, ad. infin.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:24 | 897158 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Greens are in a no-win situation. They don't want to go down with the ship that is the current government, but won't endear themselves by pulling out of the government either.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:08 | 897051 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

what does a trillion dollars look like?


would love to see this as a zerohedge headline!



Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:12 | 897060 Horatio Beanblower
Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:08 | 897142 Ludwig Van
Ludwig Van's picture


Nice visualization, but we'll never see it except in cartoons. The costs are prohibative. Just as we have, for instance, paper fractionalizing physical metal, so now is the day of digital entries fractionalizing physical paper...

...not to mention the cost of pallets.


Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:20 | 897072 Bob
Bob's picture

I like to visualize it in terms of the speed of light.  5.9 Trillion miles = 1 Light Year. 

1 Trillion miles = .17 light year.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:45 | 897116 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

Then US national debt in dollars is 2.79 times the age of the universe in days.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 19:17 | 897739 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Big Bang, just ahead...

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 21:22 | 897905 Bob
Bob's picture

We've definitely crossed an event horizon.  It's the non-linear function of time that seems to be undefined, at least wrt our own frame of reference. 

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:12 | 897145 swanpoint
swanpoint's picture

the north star is approximately 431.42 light years from earth

5.9 x 431.42 = 2,545.378 trillion miles

these numbers are only impressive to gaussian bell curve fanatics

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 15:41 | 897404 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

If your math is correct it would be more impressive to show it like this:

2,545,378,000,000,000 miles

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:42 | 897178 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

That was good. It would be nice to continue the lesson with gold. Stack entire world gold and silver above ground supply to entire world fiat money m1,m2,m3. It would look the Burj Dubia Tower standing next to a house.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:13 | 897052 Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

The people of Ireland need to stop the Finance Bill from being enacted at all costs.  They need to bombard their TDs with phone calls, letters and personal visits.  If the Finance Bill is not defeated, the Irish will be the serfs of the EU/IMF for a very long time to come.


The election is now expected to take place during February.  

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:31 | 897093 Bob
Bob's picture

Meanwhile, on the enlightened side of the pond, we've got to dissolve social security. 

The contradictions we can miss are breathtaking. 

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:56 | 897198 Rick Masters
Rick Masters's picture

SS will never be dissolved. In any event it's fully solvent to 2039 and after that can pay 75 percent of it's obligations, currently. But most Americans love SS, so I don't see how dissolving it is even feasible. Why does it have to be dissolved?

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:12 | 897229 Bob
Bob's picture

The Fund's assets include $2.2T in loans to the Treasury that the vast majority of finance people blithely sweep away as "unpayable" as they argue for a selective Treasury debt default on this "entitlement" program. 

Very similar to the situation in Ireland, with the "commoners" bearing the burden of ponzi financing that shifts wealth to the banksters--as if T Bills have to be paid, but obligations held by SS/The Public don't. 

I realized I could have used a /sarc tag, but wondered which way it would be interpreted without. 

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:36 | 897281 Rick Masters
Rick Masters's picture

ah ok thanks. I understand better now. I appreciate your comment and its cicil tone as Im here to learn and Im still pretty young, 30, so I dont have any real solidified positions on various economic and political questions. Im just rying to learn and this is the best for it. Lots of smart people like you here. I feel like a student again. Maybe I should do a keg stand everytime i sign off!

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 15:08 | 897348 Bob
Bob's picture

Duuude--hell yeah! 

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 17:45 | 897631 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

SS should be left in peace for now (peace assurance) but any health & drugs programs should be abolished as of now. These are tools of milking all us of billions or trillions. Starting from drugs cos going thru insurance cos to doctors and hospitals they just suck everything out of us everywhere. Lets introduce some competition in that field and will see how much they will charge us for doctor's visit, hospital stay or all of those miracle drugs after sometime! SS should be dissolved after nationalizing banks.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 20:37 | 897820 Bob
Bob's picture

There are a multitude of constructs that milk us all of our money every day.  Consider the cost of not controlling our own currency.  Add to that the money that is lost to graft as a natural consequence of such a system.  I don't think health care is that expensive, especially when spooned out universally by the state--as nearly every other developed nation has demonstrated. 

We really don't have to pay the banksters.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 20:36 | 897836 Bob
Bob's picture



Mon, 01/24/2011 - 09:04 | 898366 pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

Social Security is a social safety-net.  Our grandparents were wise to fight for it.  The owners have been trying to eliminate it for a long time, as it represents economic freedom, just as socialist health care represents that freedom in spades.  (Imagine how much power you would have over your employer if you didn't depend on them for your health-care.)

What our masters want, and have always wanted, is a return to slavery, where you have a contractual obligation to do everything they say.  For most people, if you are a wage/debt slave, for those eight hours a day, you have no rights.  These programs protect your rights.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 21:22 | 897903 ConfusedIdiot
ConfusedIdiot's picture

Social Security is NOT an entitlement program.


Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:00 | 897135 Mad Mad Woman
Mad Mad Woman's picture

Agreed. This will be very interesting that's for sure.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:10 | 897054 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

The critical piece of enslaving legislation and what the election is all about is going to pass anyway.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:11 | 897056 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Why worry about tomorrow?  The American and National football circus championships start in like only four hours.  Were gonna have bread, of course cheese, and chips.  If only I could think of something I could buy which would add flavor to the chips... 

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:39 | 897107 Bubbles...bubbl...
Bubbles...bubbles everywhere's picture

Try some guacamole.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:52 | 897122 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

Divide and conquer, eh?

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:12 | 897059 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Once the Finance Bill passes, the deal will not be undone.  There will be only talk of re-examination but no change of any significant terms.

This is all subterfuge and the bankers will continue to get their blood meals.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:12 | 897061 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

Dollar rally, PMs get whacked, more cover for looting by Ben and his banker friends.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:17 | 897069 Quintus
Quintus's picture

PMs seemed to do very nicely in the past whenever a Peripheral EZ country threatens to blow up.  Euros leap into CHF and Gold very quickly when the Eurozone seams start to come apart.

The manipulators on Wall St have pretty much shot their bolt over the past few weeks in terms of whacking the metals down in the face of very strong demand, so I can't see them upping their efforts now to deal with even stronger demand - they've already played most of their cards, even up to the 'Surprise margin increase' ace-in-the-hole.  

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:16 | 897066 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Will be interesting to see how European indexes react to this news.

Hard to believe after all Europe and the PIIGS have been through this past year, the markets over there are pretty much pinned right at the highs.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:32 | 897097 SheHunter
SheHunter's picture

Just as hard to believe is our DOW rising and rising each and every week.  Somet'ing's gotta break.  Nice to see you here this AM.  Always love your charts mixed with skin.  But how about just every now and then a little male skin for the fairer sexed ZH-ers?

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:42 | 897113 Bubbles...bubbl...
Bubbles...bubbles everywhere's picture

I am sure RT can comply as he probably swings both ways.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:48 | 897119 SheHunter
SheHunter's picture

Whatever.  Nice charts he's got on him though.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:56 | 897131 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

Yeah, but the assets remain hidden from view.

What's up with that, Robo?

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 15:20 | 897369 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

The DJIA rising every day is entirely in line with growing expectations of an inflation tsunami approaching.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 18:04 | 897656 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Whymore, er Weimar +Zimbabwe are us.  Bullish!

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:21 | 897074 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

how bout some Giant's  season salt... though I hear it's a little bitter.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:26 | 897087 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

LOL.  Brilliant.  I think you are replying to me.  I'm sorry but I still can't talk about it.  No really, I'll be fine once I stop crying.  Really.   

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:22 | 897076 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Maybe the irish will get the last laugh on Lisbon yet

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:23 | 897078 Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

I think this guy has hit the nail on the head -


**Do not read if you are easily offended** 

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:23 | 897081 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

As I was reading the story some words were dancing in the back of my head.

Something along the lines of "This Ponzi is being held together with duct tape and chicken wire".

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:04 | 897140 Mad Mad Woman
Mad Mad Woman's picture

My thoughts exactly. It's soon going to fail. All Ponzi's must fail at some point. It's lasted longer than the original Ponzi ponzi's. lol

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 15:42 | 897411 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The full compliment of support is composed of duct tape, bailing wire, and chewing gum.

After that it's every man for himself.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:36 | 897104 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

The correct link for the live arguement

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:38 | 897106 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

everyone watch how this becomes the poster child for in-action...

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:40 | 897109 Al89
Al89's picture

The bail out will (probably) still pass. And if it does, with the Irish people supposedly so upset over it, it is the fault of those same people for not standing up to the morons in their Parliament.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:57 | 897201 ATG
ATG's picture

Like the USA?

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:41 | 897111 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture


Doug Noland's latest:


Recalling January 2008

The first few weeks of 2011 have me recalling early-2008. It's as if someone reached over, flicked a switch and changed market dynamics. Abruptly, last year's outperformers have come under heavy selling pressure, while the underperformers have in many cases caught strong bids. Things are unsettled and there are divergences. And I'm not just talking U.S. equities.

Peripheral European debt markets have enjoyed a dramatic reversal of fortune. Greek Credit default prices (CDS) are down a notable 173 bps so far this year (down 210 bps in the past 9 sessions). Portugal's 10-year CDS price was down 116 bps in nine sessions and 64 bps y-t-d. Spanish CDS has declined 94 bps in 9 sessions (down 83bps y-t-d). Peripheral bond spreads (to German bunds) have collapsed. Bond spreads have declined 150bps in Greece, 95bps in Portugal and 49 bps in Spain - in only three weeks!

The dollar index jumped 2.5% the first week of the year, sank 2.3% the second week and declined a further 1.3% this past week. Reminiscent of currency market volatility back in January 2008, the euro has gained 1.8% y-t-d against the dollar, this despite a 3.5% decline the first week of the year. Last year's strongest currencies have lagged so far in 2011. The "safe haven" Japanese yen and Swiss franc have declined 1.8% and 2.4%, respectively. The "commodities currencies," also strong 2010 performers, have stumbled out of the blocks. The Australian dollar has declined 3.3% and the New Zealand dollar 2.9%.

After a stellar 2010, the precious metals stocks have suffered thus far in 2011. Silver has been hit for 11.30% and gold is down 5.5%. Many of the metals stocks have been hit harder. The HUI "Gold Bugs" index is down 12.0% y-t-d. And defying those that had believed that year-end anomalies had created exceptional buying opportunities, municipal bond prices have been slammed further to begin the year.

Equities markets have seen significant volatility and sector divergences. After a big 2010, the broader U.S. stock market is lagging. The small cap Russell 2000 has declined 1.3%, while the S&P400 Mid-Cap index is up only 0.8%. Some of last year's laggards have sprung to life. The S&P Homebuilding index has gained 6.5%. The NYSE Financials have outperformed, gaining 3.8%. The Semiconductors are up 4.8% y-t-d.

Selling pressure in the stock market has certainly not been as heavy as that experienced in January 2008. Yet the past few weeks have been reminiscent of how volatility and rather abrupt changes in market underpinnings caught market players - especially the leveraged speculating community - flat footed.

Players began 2008 out of synch, with trading conditions across various asset classes turning challenging - and progressively frustrating. Almost overnight, uncertainty seemed to take root throughout equities, fixed-income, currency and commodities markets. Breathtaking moves and abrupt market reversals began to subtly take their toll. Things that had worked quit working. An increasingly uncomfortable crowd of speculators saw their various long exposures lag and their shorts outperform.

And it wasn't all that long before losses began to mount and defensiveness became the order of the day - with inflated markets hanging in the balance. De-risking and de-leveraging then fueled atypically high correlations amongst various markets, causing considerable angst for the leveraged players and others dependent upon "quant" models. The "wrecking ball" of high volatility and highly-synchronized global risk markets began working against systemic stability. This dynamic fed - and was being fed by - the concurrent rapid slowing of mortgage Credit. Instability took on a life of its own, as markets dependent upon abundant liquidity and speculation began to suffer withdrawals.

There have been various recent reports suggesting that hedge fund assets and leverage have returned to near pre-crisis levels. Record industry assets seem reasonable to me; near record leverage does not. A major increase in speculative leverage is not apparent from ongoing stagnation in Wall Street balance sheets, bank Credit, and reported "repo" positions. There is, at the same time, the huge unknown of "carry trade" leverage embedded throughout global currency and fixed-income markets. And while I doubt the leveraged players are today the marginal source of marketplace liquidity to the extent they were in 2008, they are surely a major force to be reckoned with.

I'll assume that many leveraged players came into the year positioned short the euro, short peripheral Europe CDS, short European financials, and long precious metals, mining and energy stocks. In global equities, those short Spanish (IBEX 35 up 9.8% y-t-d) and Italian (FTSE MIB up 9.5% y-t-d) equities have suffered losses. Those caught short some of the major European banks have been badly stung. There are also some losses for those long U.S. small caps and American retailers and/or short banks and homebuilders.

With parallels to 2008, the success or failure of the leveraged players takes on additional prominence now that there are cracks in the global government finance Bubble. On the margin, global yields continue to have an upward bias. Our ten-year Treasury yield is up 11 bps so far in January, while the long-bond has seen yields jump 23 bps to a near nine-month high 4.58%. Few sectors, however, are showing the effects of waning marginal liquidity than U.S. municipal finance.

The Bloomberg 20-year municipal bond yield composite index has jumped 33 bps in three weeks to a near 2-year high 4.72%. Muni yields are now up 150 bps in about three months. Muni funds saw $3.9bn of outflows this past week (from Lipper), with over $20bn having exited over the last ten weeks. The heated debate regarding the number of prospective defaults misses the point: the important - and vulnerable - U.S. municipal finance sector has suffered a decisive reversal of flows and liquidity dynamics. Whether it turns out to be hundreds of defaults or merely a few, the reality is that market-imposed "austerity" will now provide headwinds against economic growth. This dynamic also creates heighted uncertainty and potential financial instability.

I have argued that the Fed's "activist" policymaking from the second-half of 2007 actually exacerbated systemic fragilities and contributed directly to the severity of the 2008 crisis. The overabundance of liquidity, coupled with the perception that policymaking would restrain the unfolding debt crisis, proved destabilizing and, inevitably, devastating. They fostered intense speculative excess, inflated market prices, unsustainable financial flows, and Bubble Dynamics. Myriad booms were fun while they lasted, although the heavy costs included heightened uncertainty and fragilities. Last year's discussion and then implementation of "QE2" has had similar effects.

Marketplace liquidity can be steadfast or fickle. Market confidence varies between incredibly resilient to stunningly fleeting. To be sure, crises of confidence are difficult to predict. But one can monitor and gauge the forces that create susceptibility to abrupt shifts in market sentiment and altered trading conditions. Policymaker responses to structural problems (i.e. zero rates, massive monetization, federal stimulus and "Build America Bonds") created distortions in risk perceptions and the flow of finance to the muni sector, while in the process delaying needed structural reform. The muni debt issue was allowed to fester; financial market distortions worsened.

For now, QE2 reliably generates additional liquidity for the liquidity-dependant markets. Somewhat ironically - yet altogether Bubble-like - rising bond yields and unfolding problems in municipal finance have bolstered flows into equities. And on the back of ongoing federal spending excess, economic prospects look ok and earnings appear swell. Yet recent developments do beckon for heightened diligence when it comes to monitoring for fissures developing below the surface of our fragile financial system. At least from my perspective, one can now discern unsettling parallels to early 2008.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:43 | 897179 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

The anticipated lag time between qe2 and not yet announced qe 3 will give the markets time to prove that they must have qe  3. By tanking, like a crying, tantrum filled spoiled wall street baby, wally world will demand its heroine.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 15:44 | 897415 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

All orchestrated so as to make money on the down side as well. 

Alligator tears all the way to the bank.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:49 | 897312 4shzl
4shzl's picture

Excellent analysis.  What kind of asshole junks a post like this?

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 16:54 | 897556 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Not me. It was too long and complicated for my NFL type brain.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:49 | 897120 Bubbles...bubbl...
Bubbles...bubbles everywhere's picture

Wasn't there a story about the Irish printing 50 billion Euros on their own? And now they want to bail out of the IMF austerity plan as well? Talk about having your cake and eating it too. This will not go over very well with the cartel.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 15:46 | 897418 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Hey, if you're going to create money from thin air be sure to create enough to pass around to your friends as well.  Not likely any of that digital currency will reach the streets, however.  They're following the oh so successful U. S. model.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 16:59 | 897565 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

What I don't understand about the created currency is who do they give it to and for what do they give it.  I suspect it goes to friends and family for some over-price services or products. At least when I take out a fractional bank loan I have to work to pay back the loan.

That's no way to run an economy. 

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 07:01 | 898304 saulysw
saulysw's picture

"That's no way to run an economy"

Excellent summary.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:54 | 897124 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Elected Officials... were DENIED Access to the Finance Committee Meetings with the Bankers!

Their words not mine, they have no Confidence in the Government hiding the Facts… sound familiar?


Sun, 01/23/2011 - 12:55 | 897128 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The developments in Ireland are interesting for political thriller enthusiasts.

But I doubt it will have any impact on the "resilient U.S. consumer", which continues to be unfazed by:

- PIIGS problems

- Skyrocketing CRB index

- Food riots

- Volcanic eruptions and record snowstorms

- Wildly gyrating currencies, metals prices

- Contradictory "boom" or "bust" economic forecasts on CNBC.

Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The economy in the U.S. probably
grew at a faster pace in the fourth quarter, driven by the
biggest gain in consumer spending in four years, economists
projected a report this week will show.

Ford Motor Co. and Apple Inc. are among companies
benefiting from the pickup in household spending that is
forecast to extend into 2011 as tax cuts put more money in
Americans’ pockets.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of
the economy, increased at a 4 percent annual pace, the best
showing since the last quarter of 2006, according to the survey

U.S. retailers’ 2010 holiday sales jumped 5.5 percent for
the best performance in five years as shoppers snapped up
clothing and jewelry
at Macy’s Inc., Tiffany & Co. and other
stores, said MasterCard Advisors’ SpendingPulse last month.

Apple posted record quarterly sales as the company sold
7.33 million iPad tablet computers in the first holiday season
for the device, the company said last week.

And the consumer spending boom continues unabated.



Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:02 | 897138 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

when do we see a pull back to 1,100 (from 1,275) Robo?

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 08:32 | 898333 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Ritholtz has wised up and is now

theorizing half the S&P's 90% gain

came from QE ramp. Barrons

 has picked up on it. Do you want

to even "rent" a jacked stock?


Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:16 | 897152 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

2nd from the right.

That's a MAN, baby.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:27 | 897162 SheHunter
SheHunter's picture

All four of them look a little scary.  Humans are the only carnivore who show their teeth as a message of friendliness/submission.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:35 | 897169 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

Yes, trained chimpanzees can be conditioned to bare their teeth.

In the wild, such behavior would likely get them killed.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:02 | 897211 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

SheHunter, interestingly enough the interesting gesture in many asian countries where women cover their mouths while amused (smiling or laughing) stems from an old belief that teeth should not be shown to the world. In fact, many cultures have men doing it too. It was said to leak your essence.

All this focus on white toothedness was just another way to raise form over function, screw with weak self-images and create a massive revenue stream for western medicine. it just struck me that brown people are obsessed about their skin becoming and being white and white people obsess similarly over their teeth. Strange.

Scary indeed. More Maya.



Sun, 01/23/2011 - 22:04 | 897959 SheHunter
SheHunter's picture

Yes- I knew that (reason for covering the teeth when smiling) of some American Indian tribes but did not know the custom extended into other continents.  Want another tidbit?   The God Bless You response to someone sneezing arises from the belief that when a person sneezes at that moment their soul is exposed to evils. The God Bless You keeps the sneezer pure until his soul can again protect him.


Be it white teeth or ageless skin or no baldness...humans are just obsessed.  period.  interesting link.   thnx


Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:14 | 897236 Hulk
Hulk's picture

had a dog once that "smiled" all the time...used to scare people until I explained that the dog was smiling...

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:40 | 897175 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I read that the increase in consumer spending is being driven almost entirely by the wealthy, the top 2-5%. Those are the ones benefiting from the stock market "wealth effect". Spending for the bottom 80% hasn't increased much at all. Is this situation indicative of a healthy "recovery"?

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 17:28 | 897603 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

Of course not, this is a jobless, manipulated 'recovery'

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:55 | 897197 Quintus
Quintus's picture

That's right Robo, I couldn't agree more.  The Great American Consumer is going to consume his way to prosperity.  To think that for millennia mankind has striven for prosperity the hard way, i.e. by working hard, inventing and innovating, saving for the future and investing wisely, when the secret turns out to have been the exact opposite all along!  Spend!  Consume!  Worry not about your declining income and the rising cost of daily necessities.  Consume the fruits of foreign labour as fast as you can and all will be well.

But of course you're smart enough to know that this isn't true.  You just plan on riding the bubble all the way up and then jumping off just before it pops and all those thousand-core HFT engines start puking consumer retail stocks into a bidless void.  Right?  Good luck with that my friend.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:54 | 897318 4shzl
4shzl's picture

LOL.  +1

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:33 | 897274 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

you don't even believe your own writing mr yoga man wearing girly tights robo uber bull wanna be. otherwise you would be all in rather than 30%.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:13 | 897146 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

This from Father Jack on the government:

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:40 | 897174 Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

...and Father Jack on what the government should say to the Irish people (but, perhaps with a little more sincerity) -

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:26 | 897154 Gussiefink-nottle
Gussiefink-nottle's picture

It appears that you have to travel about 900 miles in a north westerly direction from Dublin to find a nation with enough balls to say no to a bail out. The Irish will undoubtedly be seduced by the Euro/IMF pieces of silver. Not actual pieces of silver of course, but derivatives thereof.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:45 | 897181 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Or maybe a few sheaves of that wonderful SLV silver.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:30 | 897165 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

Default was the preview in Iceland, we all will follow, not just Ireland; for it is writtten in Ponzi logic that it must be so. If it is not goverments, states and municapalities, it will be individuals. It makes no difference, just time and credit default.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:39 | 897172 Jack Donaghy
Jack Donaghy's picture

What can we expect from Asia when it opens in a d

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:45 | 897184 cossack55
cossack55's picture

More cheap shit for the WalMart shelves.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 17:26 | 897597 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

as always

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 17:26 | 897598 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

as always

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 20:39 | 897842 web dizajn
web dizajn's picture

hey, I like my shit cheap!

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 13:46 | 897185 The Onion Of Tw...
The Onion Of Twickenham's picture

The situation in Ireland is very um... fluid.

An opinion poll today puts the ruling Fianna Fail party on 8%. That is unimaginable. It sets the stage for an election that could result in a once-in-a-lifetime shift in the Irish political landscape.

Let's see what the Irish Labour Party is saying in 2 or 3 weeks time. If there's a chance of a Labour/Sinn Fein government then I think Eamon Gilmore would jump at it. He'd rather be Taoisach than play second fiddle to the numpties in Fine Gael. And there's no way SF will buy the bailout.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 15:50 | 897424 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Not knowing the first thing about Irish politics, which "party" is the equivalent to the U. S. Tea Party, and when do they get into power to do some damage?  Or will they be like the Tea Party in the U. S. :  All talk and no action.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:01 | 897208 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

This is nothign but more engineered politics. The greens are no cleaner or greener as politicians. They are funded by the same people. 

As always on the lookout for the grain that gets the sand pile falling and on that scale, this is too obvious. The tectonic shift will come with something far more subtle and vicious.

The great middle class squeeze is definitely fully underway now. Watch for near to fully naked half-time shows in many major sporting events soon. Maybe Tiger playing golf in a jock-strap and All the tennis queens in thongs. The sheeple need their skin. Look for UFC to get far more vicious. 

In fact, something on live TV will probably trigger the next big one. Some expression of hate, unscripted.


And by the way, for those who were wondering (I was) I did a quick Google:

GO RAIBH MILE MAITH AGAIBH means...: The way to say "Thank you very much" and literally it means "may you have a thousand good things".



Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:38 | 897283 DCon
DCon's picture

Just in case you make a mistake,


is used when addressing more than one person.


GO RAIBH MILE MAITH AGUT would be used when

addressing just one person


Sun, 01/23/2011 - 16:46 | 897541 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

so its Gee Agaibh not Gee Agut then? :) (phoenetic not real!)

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 14:50 | 897313 Lord Peter Pipsqueak
Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

Shouldn't affect the Euro,Japs and Chinese have recently made commitments to suport it.They want to support Eurozone as they hedge against the Bernank's destruction of the $,it is their second biggest export market so Ireland's woes mean little in the grand scheme of things.The major risk is of default or withdrawal from Euro,all corrupt/incompetent politicians are on board so no chance.

The election result is as usual meaningless,one incompetent, corrupt set of bankster puppets replaced by another.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 15:01 | 897332 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Niether party of the Irish coalition wants to take the blame for the upcoming finance package vote. They're both in the pocket of the EU and bankers and should have thought of that before they sold out Ireland. The finance bill is a vote against the Irish people and hands over their sovereignty.  Now the Irish people know they are not only traitors but cowards.

These scum know the Irish people will reverse the finance bill anyway after the elections and they are thrown out. Curious how they will play it.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 16:09 | 897457 Thoreau
Thoreau's picture

Sing ye an Icelandic lullaby, dear laddies.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 16:45 | 897537 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture


Sun, 01/23/2011 - 16:31 | 897513 ivars
ivars's picture

Great News! The stocks on artificial life support may just not be able to digest this.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 16:32 | 897516 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

The men in green are ruining everything today. The Bears are getting slaughtered.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 16:34 | 897521 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

As here, new boss will carry the same Shillelagh as the old boss. 

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 16:52 | 897551 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

ponders why the greens dont change their name to the emerald party..or the green tea party....

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 16:48 | 897544 Buzz Wired
Buzz Wired's picture

Leave it to the Irish to start a good fight :-) Justified for sure. The Irish people absolutely need to say NO to a bailout with huge debt that will enslave them for generations. Let the banks fail, just start over. No doubt, it will be painful in the short term, but they will be MUCH better off in the long run. This could be the beginning of the end of the Euro. Grab your popcorn folks.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 17:01 | 897567 The Axe
The Axe's picture

please---The Irish love a handout..

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 17:17 | 897568 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

One has to wonder the motives of getting the Ira to lay down its Arms to allow the Imf takeover. Personal visits by Billy Clinton in Ireland in the 90's. Coincidence ?..

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 19:48 | 897776 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Old Billy can rescue hostages and sweet talk terrorists. Why, he uses his tongue purdier 'n a twenny dollar whore.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 17:47 | 897634 hourglass86
hourglass86's picture

I really hope Irish people will fight against the IMF/EU/Irish government plan to enslave them.It seems here in Greece we lost the battle but they have a chance to start a revolution. 

Cheers from a  "piig". 



Sun, 01/23/2011 - 17:53 | 897643 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Well, the EUR has opened up strong against the USD. So, looks like it's going to be another week where the 'markets', fx, et al, aren't correlated to reality.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 18:59 | 897716 raya123
raya123's picture

Nope, the euro is actually tanking.  It will fall until May, and drag stocks sharply down with it during that time, while gold and silver simultaneously surge higher.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 18:13 | 897661 whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

don't touch my junk, bro!

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 18:24 | 897673 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

The Irish will acquiesce and accept the bailout.  It is in the DNA of the Irish after centuries of domination and emigration.


Sun, 01/23/2011 - 18:31 | 897681 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Like they acquiesced to rule by the UK?  I recall that whole situation was less than peaceful.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 18:48 | 897702 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

The Irish will be responding to their own leaders in this case.

The Irish will acquiesce.

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