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Irish Spreads Jump As Country Is First To Officially Double Dip

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Irish bond spreads are back in the spotlight, with Bund spreads jumping by over 20 bps  to over 415 bps, although not on the heels of a failed auction (the country did auction off €400 million in February and April 2011 bills earlier, which was less than sought), but rather on news that Ireland is the first country in Europe to officially double dip back into negative growth. Ireland was also the first European country to dip into recession what may seem like an eternity ago. The stunner is just how vast the difference between the expected and the actual economic reality was. As BBC reports: "The Irish economy shrank in the second quarter
from the previous three months, surprising analysts who had been
expecting growth.
Gross domestic product (GDP) fell 1.2%, the Central
Statistics Office said. It also revised down its measure of growth in
the first quarter to 2.2% from 2.7%
." So poor Ireland not only has to deal with a drunk PM, insolvent bank system, and, what is not surprising a new economic crunch, but what is far more concerning, a Department of Truth and Unicorns, which is unable to lie its teeth off and paint a rosy picture when the feces are already in process of being fanned.

Amusingly enough, the reason cited by the Irish Finance minister as the reason for the depressed GDP figure, is the surge in imports during Q2. So now we know who was buying up everything China was making, even if it cost them a formal double dip announcement.

More from BBC:

The government has been seeking to reassure investors about the economy.

Most economists had predicted a 0.5% rise in GDP.

"It's well below [the consensus forecast] and a disappointing figure clearly," said Dan McLaughlin, Bank of Ireland's chief economist.

"One could take some comfort from the fact that domestic demand is beginning to show some signs of life," he added.

"Probably people will now have to reassess their outlook for this year overall."

The Central Statistics Office said the economy had been hit by a fall in consumer spending - down 1.7% compared with the same period last year.

As for the T-Bill auction that occurred just before the announcement, and which is already trading underwater so the investors must be quite unhappy (although with "them" being primarily the ECB, JCT is quite content with burning money), here are the auction details.

- Irish 14-Feb-11 T-Bill auction for EUR 0.3bln, bid/cover 4.1 vs. Prev. 9.4 (yield 1.907% vs. Prev. 1.925%)

- Irish 18-Apr-11 T-Bill auction for EUR 0.1bln, bid/cover 11.7 vs. Prev. 5.4 (yield 2.231% vs. Prev. 2.19%)

The 400 million auctioned off was actually less than the country sought to sell:

Ireland auctioned 400 million euros
($533 million) of bills, less than the maximum sought by the
debt agency, as concern mounted that growth in the region is
slowing, making it harder for governments to cut their deficits.

Considering that the bailout of AIB will cost between €25 and 35 billion, Ireland may really want to crank up the debt issuance apparatus rather soon.

The Dublin-based National Treasury Management Agency

Indicatively, if and when the US has to pay almost 2% for 4 month paper, it's all over.

h/t Ciaran

 


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Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:06 | Link to Comment Hot Shakedown
Hot Shakedown's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D22TlYA8F2E

Off Topic: Hopefully, there is still time to get people to pay attention and effect change at the state level -- then federal. This is not about  right wing - left wing or conservative - liberal.

It is about how the people of this country are about to be fuc*ed again by the international banking cartel that curently controls the "quantity of money" in our debt based system. We need to go back to the original, government contolled sytem WITHOUT fractional reserve lending and do away with the current (privately controled) "Federal" Reserve system that is creating and forcing the US (and world) into another depression.

This video highlights the ORIGINAL symbolism seen in Baum's "the Wizard of Oz" which has been surpressed. It is a fascinating history of monetary - banking system beginning with pre- Ceasar Rome (in brief) leading to Henry I, son of William The Conqueror,  thru 17th century -- then focuses (majority of film) in the US from 16th century - present.   MUST SEE. 1 hr 51 mins. -- it will change your perception of everything. Released 1 month ago. www.secretofoz.com

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:24 | Link to Comment Voluntary Exchange
Voluntary Exchange's picture

End the Fed yes, but replace it with freedom to choose what an individual uses for money. Having  a government that likes free money in charge of a forced fiat currency is a recipe for continuing theft through inflating the currency and deficit spending.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:35 | Link to Comment LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Effect change at the State level?  Do tell.  By what means?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:07 | Link to Comment Deflation
Deflation's picture

Lucky Charms, Bitchez

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:12 | Link to Comment themosmitsos
themosmitsos's picture

Department of Truth & Unicorns is a CLASSIC line AND I'M STEALING IT. Heads up ;)

[but it really shoulda been Dept of Truth & Leprechauns!] ;)

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:16 | Link to Comment Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

Also from the Department of Unicorns was Maria Bartiromo's interview with Spain's PM Zapatero yesterday.  The whole interview about economic difficulties was conducted in the past tense.  Maria, all whored-up for the chance of meeting Slick Willie at the Clinton Institute, actually asked how the problems were solved.  It was pure propaganda.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:21 | Link to Comment bada boom
bada boom's picture

Speaking of propaganda.  I hear that she has a role in the new wall st movie.

Talk about mixing reality with make believe.  Or should I say, make believe with reality?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:16 | Link to Comment eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

OMG, my silver is down by 1%!! What a tragedy! :-(

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:46 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Gold just bounced off 1288, and is now up to 1293. The manipulation... it isn't working as well as it used to!

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:24 | Link to Comment jbc77
jbc77's picture

This is great news. I put on a levered short postion on the EX pre-market yesterday. If I can just get some shitty housing data on the U.S for August I'll be cooking with gas. Scares me a little though because ZH readers know all too well these numers coming out are ALWAYS on the rosy side and thats being kind.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:32 | Link to Comment Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

should i say a spread of 1000 bps is when we hear "Ireland has DEFAULTED on its DEBT"

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:36 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

But the Spanish Prime Minister declared the crisis over yesterday.

And as we all all know, according to Bernanke in 2006, Sub Prime was contained.

 

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:37 | Link to Comment Lord Peter Pipsqueak
Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

This gentlemen is a prime example of what the Irish government is throwing billions of Euros of taxpayers money at, to prevent it from falling to a reasonable price,at todays rates 725,000 euros is $544,000.That's right 1,400 sq ft for $544,000.That's $390 per sq ft.

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/26-gledswood-avenue-clonskeagh-duboln-14/126450

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:47 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

That's insane. I have a friend who goes to horse racing in Ireland, who says attendance is down sharply, and the entire city has a depression-feel to it.

To then see the pricing of this house astonishes me.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:56 | Link to Comment Yorick7
Yorick7's picture

It's far worse than that, €725k is actually $966k.  Thats your million dollar home dude.  Wanna buy any Euros?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:40 | Link to Comment Prof Quagmire
Prof Quagmire's picture

 

  Ireland has secret weapons: the Blarney Stone and Jameson's.  Sounds like the pm is already trying them out.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 11:08 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Don't forget Guinness!

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:40 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

In spite of everything he's put them through God still loves the Irish, he just loses track of them sometimes because they blend in with the angels.

 

 

 

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:04 | Link to Comment virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

TD excellent work but calling the "Irish Pm a drunk" was uncalled for.. would  Mr Obama ever be called such ? as He enjoys his beer.

Mr Cowen is not the sharpest fellow but I had to express my displeasure in the choice of words.

 

These are tactics the Elitist's and MSM use. 

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:18 | Link to Comment Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

I think that refers to where he might have had a bit much to drink the night before an interview:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/niall-odowd/irish-prime-minister-was_b_717682.html

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:38 | Link to Comment scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

No, he's not a drunk, he was born like that.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

I'll do the honors. Obama is a drunk liar. He is also a drunk cheat and a drunk thief! Most devastating to our Country is the fact that he is a drunk idiot! In fact, he would do less harm if he would just get drunk and STFU!

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:25 | Link to Comment Josephine29
Josephine29's picture

On the question of the Irish PM being somewhat the worse for wear even the Financial Times is getting in on the act of referring to his radio interview as it talks of recent economic news having a sobering effect...

On the way things are getting out of hand for Ireland I saw this last week on notayesmanseconomics. and it is looking rather prescient to me.

"As Ireland has strengths that Greece did not have for example she ran a much better fiscal policy before the credit crunch and took more decisive initial steps to respond she in my view could add to those strengths by again acting decisively and calling in the EU/IMF to help her."

http://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:27 | Link to Comment virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

A way to soften them up for Austerity.. Was it fair to call Ms Merkel a "Nazi in a Pantsuit"?  Mr. Blair a  "Book Writing War Profiteer"?  All are fair game I presume.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:51 | Link to Comment Macker
Macker's picture

While the irony that all the Irish banks are being bailed out is not lost on me, please distinguish between Allied Irish Banks (known as AIB), which is still in private hands to an extent, and Anglo Irish Bank (not known as AIB) which is an absolute basket case and has been nationalised. This is the bank costing 25-35 billion.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 12:39 | Link to Comment Lord Peter Pipsqueak
Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

Another gem of an article regarding the Squid's dual role of advising the NTMA(the Irish govt's treasury agency) on the purchase of Quinn Group by Anglo Irish bank(which the Irish govt has bought and is honouring its debts) and at the same time buying bonds in the same Quinn Group "for its clients".

Quinn owes Anglo 2.7 billion euros and Anglo thinks it has a better chance of recouping more of the debt if it buys Quinn outright,regarding the obvious conflict of interest in such a deal a Squid spokesperson said:

""All investment banks have Chinese walls in place to avoid and manage potential conflicts of interest [in general]," she added. "We are highly confident of the effectiveness of our Chinese walls."

Nothing to worry about there then.

http://www.independent.ie/business/world/goldman-plays-dual-role-with-quinn-group-2349547.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sat, 09/25/2010 - 23:02 | Link to Comment CL1
CL1's picture

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