ISM 60.8 On Expectations Of 58.0, Priced Paid Smash To Two Year High Of 81.5, Respondents Lament Weak Dollar

Tyler Durden's picture

The January ISM Manufacturing M/M 60.8 vs. Exp. 58.0 compared to the previous print of 58.5. Yet the key metric that everyone is focusing on is the surging Price Paid number, which hit a 2 year high 81.5 (73.5 expectations): the highest since July 31, 2008! The corporate margin collapse is about to cripple Q1 numbers, and at this point it is only a matter of time before even sell-side analysts are forced to aggressively lower their S&P EPS estimates.

Other metrics:

  • New Orders: 67.8 vs. Prev. 60.9
  • Employment: 61.7 vs. Prev. 57.5

And despite the strong number, the responses in the ISM were decidedly gloomy, with a lament on the dollar.

  • "Continued weakness in the dollar is having a negative effect on
    the components we purchase overseas and increasing our material costs."
    (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Lead times are increasing significantly, and commodity pricing is starting to increase." (Chemical Products)
  • "January/February sales will be decent, and we see a strong March.
    We're cautiously optimistic but reluctant to hire." (Fabricated Metal
  • "Business is still slow with no pick-up in sight." (Furniture & Related Products)
  • "We continue to see unexpected strength in many non-U.S. markets." (Fabricated Metal Products)

And here is a chart of the Prices Paid vs 10 years. One upon a time these correlation.

Full report

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slow_roast's picture

Hahah...markest selling off gold and silver on this excellent news of PRICES PAID inflation!  YAY!

papaswamp's picture

Hope they sell big time....I'm in the mood to buy more...but gold is still too high for me. 

hedgeless_horseman's picture

Very strange, indeed.  It is a topsy turvey world that makes no sense unless you are wearing tinfoil on your head, then it suddenly becomes very clear.

"They" are not having as much success in oil, as it is a much bigger market.  Whack-a-Mole will wear a central planner's ass out.

HankyPankyBernanke's picture

Its very clear, they whack you with a massive dump in PM's to make you think twice about jumping in long, they'll be throwing everything they have at this one I suspect.... Silver down 40pips whilst the DOW well up....seems Inflation is good for stocks and bad for PM's...welcome to the new norm..just BTFD (though not in PM's of course!)

tmosley's picture

Price doesn't matter.  If you quibble too much on price, you'll miss out entirely, just like all these idiots who think they are going to get gold for under $1000.  That ship has sailed.


Mark McGoldrick's picture

Price doesn't matter?

That is some very strong Kool-Aid that you've chugged. 

SheepDog-One's picture

Yes he's clearly right, price does NOT matter when what youre 'pricing' in an ever more worthless DOLLAR! What does it matter that silver is $28...totaly IRRELEVANT when youre talking about dollars which the Bernank is printing to oblivion. Same for equities, at this point the equity partiers better pray equities keep rocketing up because they redeem in ever more worthless dollars...good luck with all that!

alien-IQ's picture

SPX over 1300, DOW nearing 12K, USD in freefall.

This is simply ridiculous.

whatz that smell's picture

ibm going parabolic... market value has exploded $50 billion since sept...

aapl parabolic... market value bigger by $100 billion since sept...

xom parabolic... market value up $100 billions since sept...

wealth effect, bitchez!

praise be the bernank! may he blow bubbles a thousand years!

SheepDog-One's picture

Its ridiculous, however the TARGET of this, the avg american sheeple, knows no better than to see 'the DOW's up' and conclude 'all is well' and therefore not riot in the street although they are grumbling a bit more about gas and food shooting up. So far, the sheeple remain calm, and thats the central banksters only real concern for now.

Racer's picture

there was a headline earlier saying talk of 60.5, who knew?

oogs66's picture

its the 1st day of the month - stocks 'must' go up.  So it is written, so let it be done!

Id fight Gandhi's picture

Dollar at November lows. Market will close up. Same ol.

At least we can profit from flipping on days like this.

Id fight Gandhi's picture

Nice how they ignore th horrible construction data. Xhb is up on hopium.

topcallingtroll's picture

I got junked on my blowout prediction earlier this morning. Its kinda like a blow out. We need some huge productivity gains now.

papaswamp's picture

Ouch on construction spending....I'm sure it was the weather.

Cursive's picture

I'm begining to think that the more it snows, the more our economy and SPX grows.

slewie the pi-rat's picture


of course, but, im sure they're still ok in FLA;  those ironworkers never mind a chilly day!

as soon as they fini w/ the reflation, tho: roses, roses, roses.


KTS's picture

My gut feeling is that the rise in new orders we've been seeing from all of these reports is due to people locking in lower prices due to their fear of future inflation.

scratch_and_sniff's picture

wasn't this the plan?

lsbumblebee's picture

Weaker dollar? No problem. Crush gold. It will make it all better.

Mr Sceptical's picture

I am missing patience with this insanity...

Racer's picture

lowering eps estimates? Who cares about earnings? As long as the Fed gives free money to PDs they don't care about such fundamentals

Oh regional Indian's picture

NUMBers don't matter anymore.

All theories and cycles are clearly broken. And statistics are revised every single time, for the worse.

This is the rule-less, end game time. If you don't have courage of conviction, i suggest you get some fast.

Fork in the road coming up. Cannot straddle it.


RobotTrader's picture

Regional banks on my screen are taking off big.

NYA on the brink of making yet another new high.

hedgeless_horseman's picture

The bankers' fantasy that FASB mark-to-market would go away forever has come true.

Wave hello to little Tattoo, and Welcome to Fantasy Island!

Here are your regional banks, Robo:

vote_libertarian_party's picture

Manufacturing?  In the US?


Isn't that about 3 factories and 20 people about now?

gmrpeabody's picture

I may be mistaken, it happens on a regular basis, but I think I heard that we now consider fast food sales as manufacturing orders. They arrive at these figures in a similar fashion as they determine CPI.  

pat53's picture

As Robo would say .. shorts getting "blowtorched" today .... sweeeeeett !!

Sofa King's picture

The government un-officially wants a soft dollar so that our exports will be cheaper.  Unfortunatly, somebody forgot to tell the brain trust in charge that all of our exports are actually re-packaged imports. 

...has no one learn anything from the movie "Blow".  It's only a matter of time before you no longer need the middleman.

SheepDog-One's picture

US Exports? What do you mean, the dollar itself and jobs? Those are our only 2 exports.

Caviar Emptor's picture

You really wanna know? 

Our 2 top exports: debt and trash. Literally. 

I'm referring to US public debt (Treasuries and munies). And a little known fact is that the No 1 export category to China is trash: in the form of scrap metal, scrap paper and lumber products and more . In fact exports of trash grew nearly 1000% from 2000-2008

SheepDog-One's picture

Cash fer Klunkers...was really about cargo ships headed to China with scrapped and cubed cars.

6 String's picture

In this surreal world of complete made-to-believe, none of the data actually matters anymore: historcially high after-tax profit margins, consumer confidence streaking higher, insider running for the exits, artificially low interest rates, computer driven market, trading on nothing but hot air is all that will matter for awhile....the POMO and SFP pump is the only game in town right now, along with constant manipulation of PM.s.

So, back the the regular scheduled show for awhile: decoupling of markets and P.M.s. The market believes the uptick in raw material costs is a sign the market is improving, which also explains the 10yr Treasury today, right?


Racer's picture

But the main problem about this surreal world is that the prices matter to the poor and all this fake economy is hurting real people

slewie the pi-rat's picture


risk ON, 6 string!

at least till friday...probably...

got defense? and i don't mean the General.

and, i just heard a rumor that the Mormons were goin to 2 years' supply in the panty...

oh, doc-tor! that shoulda been pantry...

Caviar Emptor's picture

Funny, I don't even need to convince anyone about biflation anymore: it's a story that sells itself with every data point released: 

-Housing prices keep on falling with predictions of years more to go (RobertSchiller)

-Real incomes dropping

-Ags, energy, industrial raws all soaring

-Every prices paid gauge outstripping prices received and major corporates complaining about margin squeezes

Your buying power will continue to get crushed. And you know who you can thank

Dick Darlington's picture

That's called recovery for the chosen few and misery for everybody else.

plocequ1's picture

ISM.. What is ISM? Is that an Apple product?  If not, Rally on.

virgilcaine's picture

Even the Economic reports are part of... AOM ALL ONE Market'..this isn't going to end well.

virgilcaine's picture

Strong demand for US made urinal cake! 

pbnyc's picture

Anyone else notice that they "adjusted" the seasonal adjustment factors. 

With the old factors, Nov and Dec PMI were 56.6 and 57.0.

With the new factors, Nov and Dec PMI were 58.2 and 58.5. 

So according to the old series the headline number should be lower than 60.8



Translational Lift's picture

All of these Gubmnt #s are absolutely meaningless to investors.  They are only useful to the HFT black boxes until and when all the banksters and Fed manipulators are all in jail.....don't hold your breath........................