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ISM Manufacturing Report Jumps To 55.3, Beats Expectations OF 53.5 As Reverse Decoupling Thesis Is Now In Play
Just like earlier in the year, the global recovery is once again on the shoulders of the US. Manufacturing ISM just printed at 55.3, a major beat to expectations of 51.3, and up from 53.5 before. How this meshes with PMI data that is contracting across the globe is irrelevant: just BTFD as America is once again expected to push the world out of the "soft spot" although this time with no QE or fiscal stimulus. Among the various indices, employment mysteriously increased from 58.2 to 59.9 despite consistently weak initial claims and NFP numbers missing expectations, New Orders increased from 51.0 to 51.6 despite a collapse in comparable metrics in recent regional Fed surveys, and prices paid dropped from 76.5 to 68.0, despite ongoing inflationary pressures.
From Bloomberg:
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index unexpectedly rose to 55.3 in June from 53.5 the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today.
Economists projected the gauge would drop to 52, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates of the 77 economists ranged from 49 to 55.
Other figures today showed manufacturing growth is slowing from China to Europe. China’s factory index fell in June to the weakest level since February 2009, while in the 17-nation euro area, a gauge slipped to an 18-month low. German manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in 17 months, while Italy, Ireland, Spain and Greece contracted.
And from the Survey respondents, who oddly see inflation despite the drop in prices paid:
-
“We continue to see inflation, though at a reduced rate [compared] to
earlier months.” (Chemical Products) -
“Slight slowdown in overall business in both domestic and
international markets, although still above 2010 at the same time.”
(Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components) -
“The earthquake and related issues in Japan have caused shortages of
some automotive equipment, negatively impacting global automotive
production.” (Fabricated Metal Products) -
“Sales continue to be stronger than expected across both retail and
industrial channels. Material costs are definitely rising and will
force increases to end-use customers.” (Paper Products) -
“High commodity prices continue to be worrisome.” (Food, Beverage &
Tobacco Products) -
“Business is still up and down, with no real upside potential for us
until the housing market rebounds.” (Furniture & Related Products) -
“Customers are still being cautious with their buying. Certain
plastics and metal prices continue to rise.” (Machinery)
»
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just part of central planning. when you dont like a number, just add 5.
RE: "just add 5" - and the result "is good" for about one week.
Watch what happens on Friday 8 July.
manufacturing jumped on geiger counters and iodine pills
how?
Can you say "cooking the books" in Chinese ? Tim Geithner can.
Someone faked these numbers. They do not at all correlate with the recent regional Fed surveys.
Absolutely agree. Once again "official" numbers don't represent reality.
-Karl Rove
Nobodys buying into it anyway, let them lie and spin their own wheels.
ES futures now up 64 points in just a few days. Unreal. Never would have guessed that the public's insatiable appetite for stocks would be this strong.
Go fuck yourself.
I second that. Go fuck yourself Roboclown.
'Never would have guessed'....oh really? Didnt you just say a couple weeks ago youre all in short? Wheres all the posts describing the kornholing you obviously just took?
If you consider a algo chewing quote stuffing super computer the public? Then you are right....
Just kidding!
"the public's" - LOL
Yes, the food stamp recipients are continuing strong, with insatiable appetite!
*cough**cough**false**cough**cough*
Wasn't every regional component down/negative?
This is pure BS.
yes, until yest. then the chicago PMI went up, apparently due to automomo-related work.
there is a strong zH undercurrent that "they" 'may' have thrown in 3 scoops of raisins, here.
if we were gamblers we wld be watching these teams and these refs v. closely. oh--we are! and we doodoo. somebody may have gotten to somebody or 3. then again, to be fair, maybe we shall get ^ revisions. probably in the unemployment figure, tho.
would love to see the spread in ES vs risk basket here from yesterday's open.
the new new POMO: clean out any and all of the short base.
Complete Fiction!
Yup. They still got just a bit of stimulus money left to create artificial demand. And ISM survey also reflects confidence in future bailouts (QE3). Otherwise there would be outright pessimism in the survey. Stay tuned
Inventories from 48,7 to 54,1. There u have it.
Yep. In fact the CNBS guest expert opined the report was go'od unless the growth was from inventory.
Now the only question for today is: will the PigMen take their weekly profits before July 4th weekend?
Tyler, what is this obsession of yours with trying to make reported economic numbers mesh with each other or even make sense? Get with the pump program dude.
/sarc
None of this data makes sense. Sometime in the future the discovery will be that this has all been a con job. Crazy times we live in.
'Manufacturing data'? LOL, just show me the list of what we supposedly still manufacture, besides fake money and propaganda!
sorry, couldnt paste the image... scroll down to card #4
http://www.disclose.tv/forum/illuminati-game-cards-on-the-table-t46504.html
Gold??
10Y!! Also, for such a good number, oil didn't move much.
Didnt you USED to crow about all the PM's you owned Robo? Big bullshitter.
Always believe in your soul
You've got the power to know
You're indestructible
Always believe in, because you are
Just bought some. Love the dip!
Last bounce to squeeze the last drop out of some forgotten "stimulus money"! I am adding to my shorts today! Sooner rather then later, something's gotta give!
keep in mind the Harare stock exchange went higher.
But, if you take the difference between ISM Inventories, and ISM New orders it is positive, and we are again officialy in a recession.
Tyler take a look, at that. Every big recession was fronruned by this event, look.
NAPMINV - NAPMNEWO
not junk, just a fat finger, must go on a diet
what is NAPMINV-NAPMENEWO
Bloomberg tickers for the ISM Inventories and ISM New Orders indexes
Very good catch, and before Tyler wrote a new article about this.
USA! USA! USA!...
Typo in the headline, the expectation was for 52 according to bloomberg.
Anyone got a handle on gold today? Down 23?
Holy crap - does anyone else think a near 5% move in 5 days is a bit much? Is this really sustainable?
There is still QE
First there was QE in the reporting period of June
Second, reinvestment of run off is going to be $300B a year, so its constant QE
So, they print money and pump stocks, then the $300 billion 'run off' comes, and they pump stocks again? I think a lot of folks are drinkin way too much Kool Aid.
on the bright side, at least the economists are consistently bad and miss the actual numbers every time by a wide margin
Absolutely no need to consider any further QE, all is WELL!!
up and down, up and down, mixed economic news. expect this for many years, especially now that there will no qe3 for at least this year.
'Many years'? Youre delusional. The rest of the world BURNS, as US just plays Goldilocks with stocks? If you think thats the norm for years, or even months, youre dead already.
Sure makes a fellow wonder about TD's piece about ICE/LIBOR/SHIBOR/scant bank liquidity and net long record margin use and a very terrified fed doing anything to keep the balls in the air and market up regardless of every and any cost.
from Yahoo finance:
Consumer Sentiment Worsens in June As Outlook Sours- Reuters
Consumer sentiment worsened in June on jitters about the economic outlook and spending is likely to remain lackluster in the long-term, a survey released on Friday showed.
So this explains today's market. </sarc>
Come on people, the number is not faked. It is just manufacturers buying into the hype that the Japanese slowdown was temporary and there will be a second half rebound. Once they realize there is no second half they will be stuck with shelves full of crap.
Manufacturing improving ain't enough now. The cutbacks at the state and local government level will dwarf manufacturing gains. That is why unemployment claims continue higher.
What do we manufacture? Can anyone name a single thing?
Dollars!
Must be the printing presses running overtime.
The monetary system is based on debt. New dollars don't come into existence without debt. More dollars are owed than are in circulation because every dollar owes interest on its creation.
The banksters arent' going to give up that privilege no matter who gets screwed.
The number has a lot of BS baked into it, though there some truth mixed in there-- the U.S. is a world leader in chemical production, especially plastics, and the Chinese are buying lots of American chemicals (a dinosaur still grows after it dies, Chinese building boom, etc. etc.)
Oh, and the Japanese compete in many of the same chemical markets, so their disruptions would tend to boost U.S. orders somewhat. There are certain chemicals and plastics that the Chinese and others import from the U.S. to make finished goods, which are then sent back the U.S. So, we're not-so-slowly morphing into a 3rd-world style economy.
Debt!
ISM is a survey, as such it's a measure of confidence.
The key thing that has boosted the market and ISM confidence in the last 2-3 weeks: The Greek bailout and the preliminary agreement to raise the US debt ceiling.
In other words, the ISM and SPX are pricing in more bailouts. Simple. But without more we'd be in the tank.
Silly question, but do they ever revise these numbers post hoc?
This is great news, because it presents the opportunity to short the piss out of this pig at a failed test of the 50 DMA. Blasted through it you say? Well this is only day 1 on putrid volume. Remember the 4 day rule.
I'm looking forward to the UI rate coming up. It's been increasing for weeks now. Throw in 12 consecutive 400K+ initial claims AS WELL AS the fact that states all across the US are laying off public employees by the 10s of thousands.
DOW to 20,000! [/sarc]
What about this? Is this transitory?
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