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ISM Manufacturing Report Jumps To 55.3, Beats Expectations OF 53.5 As Reverse Decoupling Thesis Is Now In Play

Tyler Durden's picture


Just like earlier in the year, the global recovery is once again on the shoulders of the US. Manufacturing ISM just printed at 55.3, a major beat to expectations of 51.3, and up from 53.5 before. How this meshes with PMI data that is contracting across the globe is irrelevant: just BTFD as America is once again expected to push the world out of the "soft spot" although this time with no QE or fiscal stimulus. Among the various indices, employment mysteriously increased from 58.2 to 59.9 despite consistently weak initial claims and NFP numbers missing expectations, New Orders increased from 51.0 to 51.6 despite a collapse in comparable metrics in recent regional Fed surveys, and prices paid dropped from 76.5 to 68.0, despite ongoing inflationary pressures.

From Bloomberg:

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index unexpectedly rose to 55.3 in June from 53.5 the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today.

Economists projected the gauge would drop to 52, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates of the 77 economists ranged from 49 to 55.

Other figures today showed manufacturing growth is slowing from China to Europe. China’s factory index fell in June to the weakest level since February 2009, while in the 17-nation euro area, a gauge slipped to an 18-month low. German manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in 17 months, while Italy, Ireland, Spain and Greece contracted.

And from the Survey respondents, who oddly see inflation despite the drop in prices paid:

  • We continue to see inflation, though at a reduced rate [compared] to
    earlier months.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Slight slowdown in overall business in both domestic and
    international markets, although still above 2010 at the same time.”
    (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • “The earthquake and related issues in Japan have caused shortages of
    some automotive equipment, negatively impacting global automotive
    production.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “Sales continue to be stronger than expected across both retail and
    industrial channels. Material costs are definitely rising and will
    force increases to end-use customers
    .” (Paper Products)
  • High commodity prices continue to be worrisome.” (Food, Beverage &
    Tobacco Products)
  • “Business is still up and down, with no real upside potential for us
    until the housing market rebounds.” (Furniture & Related Products)
  • “Customers are still being cautious with their buying. Certain
    plastics and metal prices continue to rise
    .” (Machinery)

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Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:08 | 1418622 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

just part of central planning.  when you dont like a number, just add 5.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:15 | 1418674 eureka
eureka's picture

RE: "just add 5" - and the result "is good" for about one week.

Watch what happens on Friday 8 July.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:41 | 1418811 trav7777
trav7777's picture

manufacturing jumped on geiger counters and iodine pills

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:05 | 1418627 richard in norway
richard in norway's picture


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:05 | 1418628 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Can you say "cooking the books" in Chinese ?  Tim Geithner can.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:09 | 1418631 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Someone faked these numbers. They do not at all correlate with the recent regional Fed surveys.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:08 | 1418656 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Absolutely agree.  Once again "official" numbers don't represent reality.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:22 | 1418703 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

"That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."

-Karl Rove

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:25 | 1418732 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nobodys buying into it anyway, let them lie and spin their own wheels.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:06 | 1418634 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

ES futures now up 64 points in just a few days.  Unreal.  Never would have guessed that the public's insatiable appetite for stocks would be this strong. 

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:09 | 1418665 HL Shancken
HL Shancken's picture

Go fuck yourself.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:24 | 1418705 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I second that. Go fuck yourself Roboclown. 

'Never would have guessed'....oh really? Didnt you just say a couple weeks ago youre all in short? Wheres all the posts describing the kornholing you obviously just took?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:15 | 1418691 The Axe
The Axe's picture

If you consider a algo chewing  quote stuffing super computer the public?  Then you are right....

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:20 | 1418712 Cleverbot
Cleverbot's picture

Just kidding!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:29 | 1419679 malek
malek's picture

"the public's" - LOL
Yes, the food stamp recipients are continuing strong, with insatiable appetite!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:06 | 1418638 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:10 | 1418639 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Wasn't every regional component down/negative? 


This is pure BS.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 11:44 | 1419062 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

yes, until yest.  then the chicago PMI went up, apparently due to automomo-related work.

there is a strong zH undercurrent that "they" 'may' have thrown in 3 scoops of raisins, here.

if we were gamblers we wld be watching these teams and these refs v. closely.  oh--we are! and we doodoo.  somebody may have gotten to somebody or 3.  then again, to be fair, maybe we shall get ^ revisions.  probably in the unemployment figure, tho. 

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:06 | 1418641 mcguire
mcguire's picture

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:07 | 1418642 mcguire
mcguire's picture

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:11 | 1418643 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

would love to see the spread in ES vs risk basket here from yesterday's open.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:11 | 1418645 kato
kato's picture

the new new POMO: clean out any and all of the short base.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:07 | 1418647 shushup
shushup's picture

Complete Fiction!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:07 | 1418649 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yup. They still got just a bit of stimulus money left to create artificial demand. And ISM survey also reflects confidence in future bailouts (QE3). Otherwise there would be outright pessimism in the survey. Stay tuned

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:07 | 1418651 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Inventories from 48,7 to 54,1. There u have it.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:38 | 1418781 Havana White
Havana White's picture

Yep.  In fact the CNBS guest expert opined the report was go'od unless the growth was from inventory.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:08 | 1418652 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Now the only question for today is: will the PigMen take their weekly profits before July 4th weekend?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:12 | 1418654 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Tyler, what is this obsession of yours with trying to make reported economic numbers mesh with each other or even make sense? Get with the pump program dude.


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:09 | 1418658 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

None of this data makes sense. Sometime in the future the discovery will be that this has all been a con job. Crazy times we live in.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:21 | 1418718 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Manufacturing data'? LOL, just show me the list of what we supposedly still manufacture, besides fake money and propaganda!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:09 | 1418659 mcguire
mcguire's picture

sorry, couldnt paste the image... scroll down to card #4

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:09 | 1418662 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:15 | 1418675 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

10Y!!  Also, for such a good number, oil didn't move much.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:20 | 1418714 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Didnt you USED to crow about all the PM's you owned Robo? Big bullshitter.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:21 | 1418715 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Always believe in your soul 
You've got the power to know 
You're indestructible 
Always believe in, because you are 

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:39 | 1418789 Boston
Boston's picture

Just bought some.  Love the dip!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:10 | 1418669 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Last bounce to squeeze the last drop out of some forgotten "stimulus money"! I am adding to my shorts today! Sooner rather then later, something's gotta give!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:28 | 1418730 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

keep in mind the Harare stock exchange went higher.  

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:11 | 1418670 Paralympic Equity
Paralympic Equity's picture

But, if you take the difference between ISM Inventories, and ISM New orders it is positive, and we are again officialy in a recession.

Tyler take a look, at that. Every big recession was fronruned by this event, look.


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:22 | 1418707 richard in norway
richard in norway's picture

not junk, just a fat finger, must go on a diet



Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:25 | 1418716 Paralympic Equity
Paralympic Equity's picture

Bloomberg tickers for the ISM Inventories and ISM New Orders indexes

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 11:20 | 1418938 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

Very good catch, and before Tyler wrote a new article about this.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:17 | 1418681 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:16 | 1418694 Barry McBear
Barry McBear's picture

Typo in the headline, the expectation was for 52 according to bloomberg.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:16 | 1418695 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Anyone got a handle on gold today?  Down 23?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:17 | 1418701 Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

Holy crap - does anyone else think a near 5% move in 5 days is a bit much?  Is this really sustainable?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:22 | 1418704 TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

There is still QE

First there was QE in the reporting period of June

Second, reinvestment of run off is going to be $300B a year, so its constant QE

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:39 | 1418785 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So, they print money and pump stocks, then the $300 billion 'run off' comes, and they pump stocks again? I think a lot of folks are drinkin way too much Kool Aid.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:18 | 1418706 oogs66
oogs66's picture

on the bright side, at least the economists are consistently bad and miss the actual numbers every time by a wide margin

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:19 | 1418710 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Absolutely no need to consider any further QE, all is WELL!!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:24 | 1418711 kito
kito's picture

up and down, up and down, mixed economic news. expect this for many years, especially now that there will no qe3 for at least this year.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:28 | 1418749 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Many years'? Youre delusional. The rest of the world BURNS, as US just plays Goldilocks with stocks? If you think thats the norm for years, or even months, youre dead already.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:30 | 1418717 OptionsHedge
OptionsHedge's picture

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:27 | 1418725 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Sure makes a fellow wonder about TD's piece about ICE/LIBOR/SHIBOR/scant bank liquidity and net long record margin use and a very terrified fed doing anything to keep the balls in the air and market up regardless of every and any cost.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:32 | 1418752 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

from Yahoo finance:

Consumer Sentiment Worsens in June As Outlook Sours- Reuters

Consumer sentiment worsened in June on jitters about the economic outlook and spending is likely to remain lackluster in the long-term, a survey released on Friday showed.


So this explains today's market.  </sarc>


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:33 | 1418760 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Come on people, the number is not faked. It is just manufacturers buying into the hype that the Japanese slowdown was temporary and there will be a second half rebound. Once they realize there is no second half they will be stuck with shelves full of crap.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:30 | 1418763 billwilson
billwilson's picture

Manufacturing improving ain't enough now. The cutbacks at the state and local government level will dwarf manufacturing gains. That is why unemployment claims continue higher.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:33 | 1418778 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What do we manufacture? Can anyone name a single thing?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:38 | 1418799 billwilson
billwilson's picture



Must be the printing presses running overtime.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:42 | 1419697 Natasha
Natasha's picture

The monetary system is based on debt. New dollars don't come into existence without debt. More dollars are owed than are in circulation because every dollar owes interest on its creation.

The banksters arent' going to give up that privilege no matter who gets screwed.



Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:42 | 1418815 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

The number has a lot of BS baked into it, though there some truth mixed in there-- the U.S. is a world leader in chemical production, especially plastics, and the Chinese are buying lots of American chemicals (a dinosaur still grows after it dies, Chinese building boom, etc. etc.)

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:59 | 1418880 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Oh, and the Japanese compete in many of the same chemical markets, so their disruptions would tend to boost U.S. orders somewhat.  There are certain chemicals and plastics that the Chinese and others import from the U.S. to make finished goods, which are then sent back the U.S.  So, we're not-so-slowly morphing into a 3rd-world style economy.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:48 | 1418819 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:47 | 1418817 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

ISM is a survey, as such it's a measure of confidence.

The key thing that has boosted the market and ISM confidence in the last 2-3 weeks: The Greek bailout and the preliminary agreement to raise the US debt ceiling.

In other words, the ISM and SPX are pricing in more bailouts. Simple. But without more we'd be in the tank.  

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 10:50 | 1418828 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

Silly question, but do they ever revise these numbers post hoc?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 11:19 | 1418915 razorthin
razorthin's picture

This is great news, because it presents the opportunity to short the piss out of this pig at a failed test of the 50 DMA. Blasted through it you say?  Well this is only day 1 on putrid volume.  Remember the 4 day rule.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 11:18 | 1418955 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I'm looking forward to the UI rate coming up.  It's been increasing for weeks now.  Throw in 12 consecutive 400K+ initial claims AS WELL AS the fact that states all across the US are laying off public employees by the 10s of thousands.

DOW to 20,000!  [/sarc]

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 13:47 | 1419518 ThreeTrees
ThreeTrees's picture

What about this?  Is this transitory?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 20:36 | 1420575 taca
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