ISM Manufacturing Report Jumps To 55.3, Beats Expectations OF 53.5 As Reverse Decoupling Thesis Is Now In Play

Tyler Durden's picture

Just like earlier in the year, the global recovery is once again on the shoulders of the US. Manufacturing ISM just printed at 55.3, a major beat to expectations of 51.3, and up from 53.5 before. How this meshes with PMI data that is contracting across the globe is irrelevant: just BTFD as America is once again expected to push the world out of the "soft spot" although this time with no QE or fiscal stimulus. Among the various indices, employment mysteriously increased from 58.2 to 59.9 despite consistently weak initial claims and NFP numbers missing expectations, New Orders increased from 51.0 to 51.6 despite a collapse in comparable metrics in recent regional Fed surveys, and prices paid dropped from 76.5 to 68.0, despite ongoing inflationary pressures.

From Bloomberg:

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index unexpectedly rose to 55.3 in June from 53.5 the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today.

Economists projected the gauge would drop to 52, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates of the 77 economists ranged from 49 to 55.

Other figures today showed manufacturing growth is slowing from China to Europe. China’s factory index fell in June to the weakest level since February 2009, while in the 17-nation euro area, a gauge slipped to an 18-month low. German manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in 17 months, while Italy, Ireland, Spain and Greece contracted.

And from the Survey respondents, who oddly see inflation despite the drop in prices paid:

  • We continue to see inflation, though at a reduced rate [compared] to
    earlier months.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Slight slowdown in overall business in both domestic and
    international markets, although still above 2010 at the same time.”
    (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • “The earthquake and related issues in Japan have caused shortages of
    some automotive equipment, negatively impacting global automotive
    production.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “Sales continue to be stronger than expected across both retail and
    industrial channels. Material costs are definitely rising and will
    force increases to end-use customers
    .” (Paper Products)
  • High commodity prices continue to be worrisome.” (Food, Beverage &
    Tobacco Products)
  • “Business is still up and down, with no real upside potential for us
    until the housing market rebounds.” (Furniture & Related Products)
  • “Customers are still being cautious with their buying. Certain
    plastics and metal prices continue to rise
    .” (Machinery)

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
101 years and counting's picture

just part of central planning.  when you dont like a number, just add 5.

eureka's picture

RE: "just add 5" - and the result "is good" for about one week.

Watch what happens on Friday 8 July.

trav7777's picture

manufacturing jumped on geiger counters and iodine pills

equity_momo's picture

Can you say "cooking the books" in Chinese ?  Tim Geithner can.

slaughterer's picture

Someone faked these numbers. They do not at all correlate with the recent regional Fed surveys.

SeverinSlade's picture

Absolutely agree.  Once again "official" numbers don't represent reality.

EscapeKey's picture

"That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."

-Karl Rove

SheepDog-One's picture

Nobodys buying into it anyway, let them lie and spin their own wheels.

RobotTrader's picture

ES futures now up 64 points in just a few days.  Unreal.  Never would have guessed that the public's insatiable appetite for stocks would be this strong. 

SheepDog-One's picture

I second that. Go fuck yourself Roboclown. 

'Never would have guessed'....oh really? Didnt you just say a couple weeks ago youre all in short? Wheres all the posts describing the kornholing you obviously just took?

The Axe's picture

If you consider a algo chewing  quote stuffing super computer the public?  Then you are right....

malek's picture

"the public's" - LOL
Yes, the food stamp recipients are continuing strong, with insatiable appetite!

firstdivision's picture


vote_libertarian_party's picture

Wasn't every regional component down/negative? 


This is pure BS.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

yes, until yest.  then the chicago PMI went up, apparently due to automomo-related work.

there is a strong zH undercurrent that "they" 'may' have thrown in 3 scoops of raisins, here.

if we were gamblers we wld be watching these teams and these refs v. closely.  oh--we are! and we doodoo.  somebody may have gotten to somebody or 3.  then again, to be fair, maybe we shall get ^ revisions.  probably in the unemployment figure, tho. 

101 years and counting's picture

would love to see the spread in ES vs risk basket here from yesterday's open.

kato's picture

the new new POMO: clean out any and all of the short base.

shushup's picture

Complete Fiction!

Caviar Emptor's picture

Yup. They still got just a bit of stimulus money left to create artificial demand. And ISM survey also reflects confidence in future bailouts (QE3). Otherwise there would be outright pessimism in the survey. Stay tuned

Dick Darlington's picture

Inventories from 48,7 to 54,1. There u have it.

Havana White's picture

Yep.  In fact the CNBS guest expert opined the report was go'od unless the growth was from inventory.

slaughterer's picture

Now the only question for today is: will the PigMen take their weekly profits before July 4th weekend?

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Tyler, what is this obsession of yours with trying to make reported economic numbers mesh with each other or even make sense? Get with the pump program dude.


Everybodys All American's picture

None of this data makes sense. Sometime in the future the discovery will be that this has all been a con job. Crazy times we live in.

SheepDog-One's picture

'Manufacturing data'? LOL, just show me the list of what we supposedly still manufacture, besides fake money and propaganda!

firstdivision's picture

10Y!!  Also, for such a good number, oil didn't move much.

SheepDog-One's picture

Didnt you USED to crow about all the PM's you owned Robo? Big bullshitter.

EscapeKey's picture

Always believe in your soul 
You've got the power to know 
You're indestructible 
Always believe in, because you are 

Boston's picture

Just bought some.  Love the dip!

TradingJoe's picture

Last bounce to squeeze the last drop out of some forgotten "stimulus money"! I am adding to my shorts today! Sooner rather then later, something's gotta give!

Global Hunter's picture

keep in mind the Harare stock exchange went higher.  

Paralympic Equity's picture

But, if you take the difference between ISM Inventories, and ISM New orders it is positive, and we are again officialy in a recession.

Tyler take a look, at that. Every big recession was fronruned by this event, look.


richard in norway's picture

not junk, just a fat finger, must go on a diet



Paralympic Equity's picture

Bloomberg tickers for the ISM Inventories and ISM New Orders indexes

Frank N. Beans's picture

Very good catch, and before Tyler wrote a new article about this.

Barry McBear's picture

Typo in the headline, the expectation was for 52 according to bloomberg.

treemagnet's picture

Anyone got a handle on gold today?  Down 23?

Ivanovich's picture

Holy crap - does anyone else think a near 5% move in 5 days is a bit much?  Is this really sustainable?

TraderMark's picture

There is still QE

First there was QE in the reporting period of June

Second, reinvestment of run off is going to be $300B a year, so its constant QE

SheepDog-One's picture

So, they print money and pump stocks, then the $300 billion 'run off' comes, and they pump stocks again? I think a lot of folks are drinkin way too much Kool Aid.

oogs66's picture

on the bright side, at least the economists are consistently bad and miss the actual numbers every time by a wide margin

SheepDog-One's picture

Absolutely no need to consider any further QE, all is WELL!!