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ISM Manufacturing Surges At 56.3 On Expectations Of 52.8, 55.5 Prior
Since bad news are great news, great news should be bad news, as all talk of QE2 on September 21 can now be shelved. It also means the sub-50 print will come in September instead of August, or October at the latest, unless all data analysis is outsourced to China in the next month. Reading through the components of the ISM, the report does not seem quite a strong as expected, with decline in New Orders, Backlogs, Exports and Deliveries, with a huge surge in Imports and Inventories pushing the overall number much higher. And the respondents commentary confirms that growth is being pulled exclusively from abroad: “Still experiencing intermittent delays in electronic components due to capacity and raw materials.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components); “International sales are especially strong. Domestic business is solid.” (Chemical Products); “Orders and business still strong.” (Primary Metals); “Order rate has slowed some. Supplier capacity in general seems to be improved.” (Machinery); “Large customers reducing pull rates for production.” (Computer & Electronic Products).
From the release:
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August for the 13th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 16th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “Manufacturing activity continued at a very positive rate in August as the PMI rose slightly when compared to July. In terms of month-over-month improvement, the Production and Employment Indexes experienced the greatest gains, while new orders continued to grow but at a slightly slower rate. August represents the 13th consecutive month of growth in U.S. manufacturing.”
There was an increase in Production (+2.9), Employment (+1.8), Inventories, of course (+1.2), Customer Inventories, of course (+4.5), Prices (+4), and a trade deficit busting Imports (+4.0). Yet declines occured in the key New Orders, Supplier Deliveries, Backlog of Orders and Exports categories. America continues to export its wealth abroad.
Respondents' comments:
- “Still experiencing intermittent delays in electronic components due to capacity and raw materials.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
- “International sales are especially strong. Domestic business is solid.” (Chemical Products)
- “Orders and business still strong.” (Primary Metals)
- “Order rate has slowed some. Supplier capacity in general seems to be improved.” (Machinery)
- “Large customers reducing pull rates for production.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
Tabular summary of the results:
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That settles it. Everything is back to normal. The FED won. Happy times ahead. Get your credit cards out.
(obligatory)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPiNIzSM3RQ
Marching Towards a Yo-Yo Depression
LMFAO...
Holy shit, they are really going to go all-in today.
LOOK AT THIS SHIT.
No doubt a moonshot was being readied when I say the futures at 5 am this morning. Hilarious.
Meanwhile, Tuesday produced a 6th Hindenburg Omen, meaning the markets are turning totally psychotic. And since the April 26th high, we have had 14 90% panic selling days and 12 90% panic buying days (today looks to be 13). In other words, around 30% of the trading days since the April 26th high have been panic days.
I missed the show last night. Did Obama say it might be a good time to invest in stocks, again?
Does he have his Series 7?
Volatitlity increased massively during the weimar years too and we all know how that ended. Reading a fascinating book about it at the moment: http://www.amazon.co.uk/When-Money-Dies-Nightmare-Hyper-Inflation/dp/190...
IMO, the aren't 'panic' days at all. It's just a way for the TBTF a-hole banks to rock the market back on forth and shag enormous amount of trading profits.
Sure was, maybe they have been saving their pomo money for this.
Pisani is peeing his pants any second now.
CNBC gets positively giddy during up days like today. Almost like 5 year old children the day of their birthday.
Yes, but what are they wearing?
To QE, or not to QE. That is the question.
Too bad the nitty gritty of the numbers is not good. It was proped up by GM staying open all summer. BTW guess the market didn't notice that construction spending is way down. Good luck by the end of this month.
Also, something tells me the way the futures were reacting last night, someone got some early numbers to front run this number. This is fucking madness and very transparent.
No way....Ya think?
So you think that on the evening of the POTUS' speech about the end of the war in Iraq, during what is usually a back to school-end of summer-last chance vacation-slow week, that some how "economic data" was put in the hands of people who would cause the market to explode to the upside while crushing the dollar?
That would be against the "rules."
Don't think so. It would be unethical.
Last great magic from "recovery summer". Just like every firework ends with a grand finale...
That should be worth at least a 500 point rally. *sigh*
i saw that too, construction spending is dead. dead. dead. of course, we peasantry aren't supposed to notice this.....just supposed to buy stocks.
don't think so.
After how many years of false numbers, massive revisions and spurious correlations, how can anybody believe anything anymore?
very, very few, if any believe official numbers
its like the downing st memo; 'we need to fashion the intel to support the decision already made'
so let's suppose the ojective is a DOW +250 as the result that would show today (the usual group given advance notice)
then the next layer down puppets just follow the script, and remember the Public is out of the market at the highest levels recorded, so they don't have to worry about The People making any gains
days ago we were falling off the cliff, today everything is just super
OMG....this market is launching itself into orbit!
Can't you just see all the boomers sitting at their PC's clicking their life savings back into the market from their Scottrade accounts?
No, it's not boomers. It's algos and funds. The boomers don't HAVE any money left.
Some of us do, both dives in the Mkt, I got all out at least 6weeks, to 6mos prior..........The inner man spoke, I moved.
I won,no getting taken, then.Unlike millions of other sheeples, that are still afriggin sleep.
Till no one wins anymore, coming soon to a Theater near you!.
Funny thing, is this time, NO one except the UBER ass rich can win.
But to do so, must leave the Western countries, and Expat.Only way to make it.
That won't be happening till we hit new highs.
Investors intelligence bullish % < 30
American Association of individual investors bullish % < 30
Every wall street economist falling all over themselves to forecast another recession.
Copper trading around 3.45.
Could get interesting pretty quickly
Actually, that won't be happening at all.
well i can only speak for myself, but I am selling all that stuff i bought near 1040, again.
Damn, this market is so great to trade, i can hardly believe it. In fact, my biggest mistakes are not believing i can do it again, and i get in too early.
Takes a bit of balls as it does feel gut-wrenching at 1040, but it's paid off time after time.
I think I'll take the rest of the week off : )
They win. I out of the market for a few years at least.
Haven't we had several August Fed indexes contract or slow their rate of growth as compared to July? I know these numbers don't even make sense anymore, but how is this possible?
Haven't all of the regional numbers been down? Now they sum them up and it is up?
I also like the double reverse spin on CNBC this morning.
ADP shows jobs down. Stocks spike up because now confirms QE
Mfg index up. Stocks spike up because economy is rebounding.
FRICK!!!
Must've added in Washington when they summed it up.
It's also a technical bounce. There was declining wedge on the candlestick (daily) chart.
upside may reach low 1100s. Strap in boys and girls. Downside should continue after mid Sept.
No QE, just a slow sub par recovery accompanied by moderate to high inflation. Stay in gold, GDX and just trade the SPY on momentum extremes (i.e. 80-100 run-ups/run downs).
Bingo!
ADP negative oh that's great we'll get QE
can coexists with
ISM improved oh that's great we won't get QE ??
It'll be revised to 50.0 next month.
Oil is matching stocks.
Woo hoo repression is over.
Bernanke saved us. The Wall Steet short squeeze cash cow is back and we were so close to the abyss. Word on the street is that corps. Are doubling their hiring efforts into this number and small business credit is enroute in a brinks truck.
I love the bias cherry picking of news that warrants a rally. Even if the ISM was lower we would have closed even or green. Just te gyrations of a unhealthy and directionless market.
Agree 100%. These are massive structural problems that are not solved overnight. Only 45 minutes into the open and they blow all over the place... over 1 data point. PLEASE. Let's see how the day finishes out.
Exactly. As if none of is here recall the last 2 weeks of data. Signals and proves to me attempts to control and manipulate the market. Has it worked the past 8 months? Evidently not were at 10k
The plan was to recapitalize on the backs of shortsellers all along.
The Fed has been attempting a stealth QE since march 09.
The buy the futures banks sell into it..boom instant QE.
The catch is the banks have to go in and defend the markets. Just spin the wheels until the data improves but it has not.
The Fed most hold more SPY contracts than can be imagined. The goal was to sell piece meal into a recovery 5 years from now. They got the go ahead from the President to do this last year which makes this even more frightening. This is why no Fed audit is permitted. Price discovery will still occur even if Ben owns most of the contracts and he will bankrupt this nation with worthless paper. This is what makes these actions highly criminal and what makes the desperation more defined as we go lower.
It is success or the end of all markets with a new administration and AG that will prosecute the lot of them. They cannot afford to have a constituionally biased Senate/Congress and ALL stops will be pulled out.
We have all seen enough in the past year that would be deemed incredulous to anyone who was raised here.
Our nation has been hijacked.
John McCloy, thank you. This Joesixpack needed to hear your comment as i was taken aback by the surge in the market today. It just makes no sense for the market to be up.
;-P
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Vc4X4hKuAc&feature=related
Ground Control to UncleBen
Ground Control to UncleBen
Take your pills and put your helmet on
Ground Control to UncleBen
Commencing countdown, engines on ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqsT4xnKZPg
Sit back, let it ride up to 1100, where the 20week and 50week moving averages sit, load up on shorts and puts, and watch it slide back down to the 100week, which will be at around 1000.
Easy money?
Agreed. journey to poopville shall commence in a week or two.
Perfect, gives me a chance to get out of my Palladium holdings and hold cash for the upcoming deflationary collapse.
Does this mean that deflation is dead?
Deflation to persist in discretionary and housing while inflation to persist in food and oil. Don't let the media manipulate you into thinking all is either black or white. All part of their design to have inflation slowly bleed you. In 5 years we'll be paying close to double for a gallon of gas (and most won't remember all the deflation speak now and that'll likely persist for the next year or so).
Truth,
We do not have FIVE years.
And so we have before us "the new normal": A few top tier multinationals doing well selling stuff to growing countries through outsourcing as US jobs and small business sink further and further into the hole. Oh and employment, incomes and real estate DOWN WITH cost of living prices up.
Just wait till Walmart moves into banking... LMAO!!
Yep, CitiSuck, just announced 12,000 jobs over seas..........
Be sure and use them for you account needs.
Don't you get it? This is QE.
None of those number are good
ADP reported August manufacturing employment being down 6k. How does manufacturing ISM employment come in at 60.4? Someone is off here.
This could be a signal not to pay attention to the ADP report. The government will take care of the employment report Friday.
so market goes up with bad news coz it knows QE2 is coming
and goes up with any good news
you can't lose
what the hell am I doing in cash
really though a 25 point bounce is INSANE
Well Yabs I have a feeling any ACTUAL retail buy-in to the insane pump job would result in a computer feeding frenzy sending it all down hundreds of points!
Sell The Undips
LOL
Well it all makes perfect sense:
ADP numbers down = Good news for our manufacturers.
Unemployment is doing wonders for our economy....Keep it coming!
LMAO
From Econoday
Lagging factors gave what is a bit of a deceptive boost to the ISM's manufacturing index masking a further slowing in the key leading index of new orders. The PMI came in at a stronger-than-expected 56.3 for a sizable eight tenths gain from July. The reading is well over 50 to signal month-to-month growth and in the comparison with July, to signal growth at an accelerating rate. But this growth is in general business activity: production, employment, inventories. These three factors all accelerated in August with a special note on inventories where the gain may reflect in part an unwanted build.
"August with a special note on inventories where the gain may reflect in part an unwanted build."
I wonder if there will be a time that they get tired of blowing air into a ballon with a hugh hole in it? This is tiring to watch on this side of the game. I can't imagine what it would be like on their side.
'Market goes up apeshit because it knows Q/E2 is coming'
Yet Ben has a bit of a conundrum doesnt he? HOW does he point to a desperate need for Q/E when theyre gunning the markets like Apollo moon shots?
He really doesn't want QE2, they are hoping this manipulated rally will cause people to start investing again. Nice try, but I don't think it will work.
Curious to see today's ICI report and more importantly next week. We'll see who is buying this crap.
They are desperate. Yesterday and this morning are very telling.
Theyve lost retail investor, only way to get anyone investing in the rigged casino would be hundreds of arrests, long term sentences, and top-down restructuring of this crap! 1 day fake rally wont regain the publics trust, theyre DREAMING!
"It's A TRAP!"
Not good for shorts - copper up and aiming to hit 3.7 in next few days, AUD/USD up over 200bps in 12 hours, ditto AUD/JPY with next target 79, this is worth another 30 ES points before the NFP on Friday so ES next target 1100. The ISM figures were leaked yesterday which explains the last minute ginormous 200k ES contracs at 4pm, whether the Aug ISM figures are real or reflect regional indices is another issue for the experts. Team O cannot create jobs but figures are well within their zone of expertise.
Lucky bet? or insider trading?
...would it be that difficult to find out who got the numbers early yesterday, by finding the buyer(s) of 200,000 ES contracts (also in CAC40 futures 32,000 contracts changed hands in or just before the last minute of trading)?
When I saw the market at 9:05, I wondered if Gasparino had claimed Ambac were getting bailed out again.
If a squirrel falls on Gasparino on Fox Business, would anyone notice?
Good day to remember Nic Lenoir's call of 1085/1100 before the big selloff.
73.50 is the ESU0 line in the sand and is being defended... Algos trading the narrow 2 point range... Lovely
It is what it is bubbas. My little company had a blow-out Q3, but now the backlog sucks and the rest of the year looks iffy.
I don't get this
I mean they can ramp but the n who do they sell to?
reatail won't be interested so who will buy?
i have been asking myself these same questions for months now... who keeps on playing sucker in this game?
endless money printing I suppose, or a completely virtual market, market moves are only there for your entertainment - don't it feel good, up 3% in spite of previously abysmal figures
3% up on ONE NUMBER!! What a joke. And even then, under the surface its not *that* special.
It's the pre-Labor Day pump right on schedule before the post summer dump.
Woohoo! Now liquidating all gold and silver. Buying calls. I'm gonna be rich bitchez!
What's so hard to figure out? The fed is buying stocks. The market goes up.
What's so hard to figure out? The fed is buying stocks. The market goes up.
Yea, I honestly don't know how anyone could possibly deny it. But, of course, they do.
OK let's suppose they buy stocks, the price goes up.
But who's gonna play sucker and buy when they're gonna sell?
They'll figure that out later. That's not priority number 1 right now.
Just saw a load of Lund boats being delivered to a local dealer this morning. Not big ones, but still an expensive purchase.
I wondered to myself, what in the hell is this dealer thinking. Is he being pressured to take these things? It's September in the northeast for crying out loud.
The state mental hospital placed a huge order with stimulus funds.
Yeah, they each come with a single paddle at no cost.
It would be a great day to pull a Flash Crash. Just sayin'!
hey, Harry Binswanger is on CNBC right now, cool.
wish they had asked him his current opinion of alan g.
would've been very interesting to hear
Wow - so a marginally better "manufacturing" "index" plus a -10K private sector employment datapoint == 3% moonshot for Fraud Street.
Yeah, that's a Rational Market at work.
EDIT - What a cotton-pickin minute: ADP is claiming that "manufacturing" shed some 6K jobs but ISM says the "employment" index for manufacturing is up? WTF?
Yep, they are going all in on this one. I wonder how long it will last.
Somehow I think this is their final stand, the battle of 1040.
When you're getting low on ammo, and you're out numbered, you've got few options left.
Wait to be over taken, or make one last attempt to break out.
The fed is trying to capture the giddiness of 1999-2000. Remember? Yahoo at $575, Qcom at over $700. I remember buying Cmgi in the morning. When I got home, it was up over 100 points on feeble news. This is a rally, But nothing like 1999.
Can the Fed legally buy stocks directly or do they have some sort of proxy they act through? If they do, don't they have to be accounted for somehow, someway?
My understanding is that they technically can but they have to report it. Someone else probably has more exact knowledge.
ISM numbers present the state of the core economy, which is still there and still carrying on. There is of course a core economy at work which delivers toothpaste, auto parts, various electronic dood-dads, industrial chemicals, paint, licorice, screen doors, and (you get it) other sundry commodities that are consumed as part of the base or core economy. It is not enough to carry the ball for the entire economy, nor is it enough to bail out all of the bad debts, which had nothing to do with the core, day to day ecomony to begin with.
PPT panty raid!
Thank you...as you all know we cannot believe everything we see or hear...can we? Now if you will excuse me, I must be on my way...
Jimi Hendrix
You guys make me laugh. Anyone bother looking at the details:
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12942
Yes I did, and I noticed that the percentage of those reporting dropped. If they do not report, they do not get counted.
they also seem to be unfamiliar with the concept that news (both good and bad) gets discounted.
but hey, somebody's got to short at the lows and cover at the highs
Production +2.9%
WHILE
Inventories +1.2%
Customers' Inventories +4.5%
BUT
New Orders -0.4%
Backlog of Orders -3.0%
Exports -1.0%
so yes they are *producing* but where's the demand ?!
This is only manufacturing and tells us more about the rest of the world's consumers than about our own. The forward-looking components are a lot worse than the headline number. And the oddly rosy employment number is clearly junk - ADP has much better data.
So please, take a break from all this vast conspiracy bullshit. I'm sorry, but the ISM is a whole lot more boring than a lot of you guys seem to think.
Updated S&P500 charts:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
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