ISM New Orders Less Inventories Decoupling Hits Unprecedented Levels, Implies Sub-45 ISM Composite

Tyler Durden's picture

While all the algos are scanning the ISM general business conditions headline, the New Orders Less Inventories spread, which leads the broader index by 3 months, has tumbled and the divergence between it and the ISM Composite is now at near record wide levels. The last time this spread closed in a favorable fashion was back in 2010, when QE1 and 2 goosed the market and the general manufacturing space. This time around, in the absence of another stimulus, the spread will close again all right, but not the way it did last time around, and explains why an ISM analyst just said new orders "not where we'd like it to be." The sub 50 ISM print is coming. Just not this month.

h/t John Lohman

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Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.'s picture

You will be told what to think shortly.  Stay tuned.

Also, if you need a laugh look at this:

He apparently was already told what to think.  And since this is a perfect specimen of the kind of brain each of our leaders has I would advise that you panic.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Clearly his regurgitation of the talking points didn't go so well. He's young and will learn how to change his speed and delivery.

gmrpeabody's picture

Not sure that clip passes the smell test. It looks more like....

Live from London..., it's Saturday Night!

slaughterer's picture

Tyler, please put up the article Jan Hatzius is about to release on today's ISM.  Goldman is back to ... (you will see).

101 years and counting's picture

despite this blowout number, the USD is now falling.


SheepDog-One's picture

Must.....destroy....US Dollar......must pump.....bubble stocks......must destroy....must kill.....

Cdad's picture

That'd be your Chinese running wild buying Euros again.  Check the EUR/USD cross.

SheepDog-One's picture

China is the Mack Daddy-O, handing free money to degenerate Euro banksters for free crack rocks, no one even sees China will then call their debts due, just like US. 

But as long as stawks are green, who gives a shit?

Cdad's picture

F'n China, the Wall Street enthroned savior of the world...or at least their paper version of it.  I would have never imagined that my country would bow to the communists in order to make some coin on the way out the door as the nation burns.

For a long time, people have spoken about energy as belonging in the national defense arena.  It would seem that the banking industry issues plaguing the nation should also report to that arena, as well.


SheepDog-One's picture

A criminal vampire cabal runs the country, parasites no different than leeches, yes its a damn shame but oh the country burns to the ground all the people are so stupid theyre all placated into submission by some bullshit green color on some IMAGINARY things on a screen known as 'stocks'. They figured out long ago that if they can get you involved in that, (401k, pension) the people can easily be controlled by it, and its ALL imaginary! Wow, what a failed fallen people, fallen nation, and while it all burns to the ground the people actually think its all good. I have no sympathy for them at all.

Girl Trader's picture

Yes, I am surprised that the military seems to have missed the threat to them.  As you bleed the middle class dry, and the banksters leave the country with All The Money (after all, they are not Americans, but rather international financiers), who will be left to pay the taxes that fund all of those US defense toys?

firstdivision's picture

Jamming the sell button towards EOD to beat the crowd!  This report stinks so bad that I am not buying it.  China and Europe have sent the signal that the recession that really never ended, still hasn't ended.  QE3 announcment t-minus 58 days.

TradingJoe's picture

Eventually ALL will reverse to the MEAN!

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This is all so tomorrow Tyler. Live and pump for today cause who knows where the liquidity will come from next week.

Hot dogs for everyone. BYOB (Bring Your Own Bun)

LibertyIn2010's picture

Hot dogs for everyone. BYOB (Bring Your Own Bun)

Isn't that what DSK said to the maid???

treemagnet's picture

I can remain solvent longer than the Fed can remain irrational.

richard in norway's picture

are you sure? cos dem are some crazy motherfockers at the fed

SheepDog-One's picture

Yep exactly treemagnet! My safe full of PM's is perfectly solvent, is actual REAL money compared to their worthless PAPER and ZINC SLUG coins! Now do your best tricks FED, I WIN no matter what!

Xibalba's picture

what, are they trying to get the VIX down to 11?  

SheepDog-One's picture

Nothing matters except America is on the eve of another 3 day drunken BBQ fest! WHOO HOOO!! And the REALLY funny part? Its a celebration of their 'INDEPENDANCE'! BWAAAA HA HA HAAAAAAA

Temporalist's picture


If you build it the Rus/Dow/SP will come!

RobotTrader's picture

Out of nowhere we are up 660 pts this week with really no great news.  Tons of shorts wiped out this week

That's why shorting stocks is like pulling teeth out of an alligator or climbing Niagara Falls.

Betting against Uncle Gorilla is futile.

SheepDog-One's picture

Really? Last week you said YOU were a short! So your bet was futile, you lost, and you admit it?

Internet Tough Guy's picture

Out of nowhere? But momo, you said we were having an economic boom of unimaginable proportions.

Deep's picture

You really are at the same level as those fast monsy traders. What happened robo, you used to be one of the good posts on this site, now it's as if you would rather get junked and and rile people rather than have saomething insightful.

Just price the markets in gold since 2000.

I rest my case



RobotTrader's picture

I told everyone I was short big but I closed out those positions last Friday when I was that huge 9 million share buy order on XLF, and I knew the fix was in.

Then I loaded big on the long side.

Deep's picture

Also you forgot to mention, you sold everything Nov 2007, went short huge and then went long with 100x leverage on March 9, 2009, and you now live in a 100,000 sq foot house, your richer than buffet right?


Your a clown



Iam Rich's picture

Most folks don't pay enough attention to your comments RT.  I certainly recall your XLF call and change of heart.  You've been right since Jackson Hole.  Just saying.  Folks here should calm down with is useful to have a contrarian to the general take.

slaughterer's picture

ROBO, question is, what are you going to do today?  Are you, RT, cashing in on anticipation of a market decline next week, or are you expecting to ride your longs higher?  Publish your call before the trading day ends right here for everybody to see. 

topcallingtroll's picture

that would be good.  I publish my calls ahead of time.

SheepDog-One's picture

DOW has been parked right about here give or take a couple hundred point for the last 7 months. You and Robo are full of shit.

slaughterer's picture

It's true that Robo posted on that 9 million share buy order on XLF last week.  Why don't you start your own blog, Robo?    

HowardBeale's picture

Re: Game with Numbers

Wait for next month's unemployment surge: somewhere between 1 and 2 million educators have been laid off (permanently, not just for the summer) around the country. Pump that.

SeverinSlade's picture

Add in the fact that states across the country are now actively laying off thousands of public workers.

Fed unemployment will near or exceed 10% within a month or two.

Also love how the market skyrocketed almost 5% on the Greek vote...The recent bailout is like putting a band-aid on decapitated person.

HowardBeale's picture

But it's a French designer band-aid.

Given the massive job losses that are about to show up in the "official" numbers, I think we're going to have to rename the four seasons: Spring, Summer, Plunge, Darkness

sleepingbeauty's picture

Also love how the market skyrocketed almost 5% on the Greek vote...The recent bailout is like putting a band-aid on decapitated person.


+1, the visual is pretty disturbing.

10kby2k's picture

Better turn off your TV. Mute won't help...Cramer is probably going to be dressed in red white and green.

n00b tube's picture

Options day trader here. I started buying JUL11 SPY puts Monday and was fully invested (100% short) by Wednesday. None of the news reported here or from MSM validates this rally in the U.S. equity market. However, I'm starting to consider that the markets may never really crash so long as there are no retail investors to "hold the bag." My position will likely be worth zero by Tuesday at this rate. Though, fire selling would be imprudent; there's plenty of time for a market event to bring my position back from the grave. I agree with those of you who advocate the PM's, I just operate on a much shorter time horizon - and I'm being caught in a moment where the market is behaving irrational longer than I can remain solvent. I've been lurking for a long time and enjoyed reading most of the comments.

Bob's picture

100% short?!  Good luck . . . really!

Temporalist's picture

Market not irrational; market rational in Bizarro Bernanke land.