ISM Services Miss Provides Major Boost For Stocks As Bizarro Market Is Back, With Stocks Correlating 100% To AUDJPY

The ISM Services index just came in at 53.8, well below both market talk of 56.5, the consensus of 55.0, and last month's 55.4. This merely continues the deterioration in diffusion indices begun last week with the drop in the ISM Manufacturing. This is the first sequential drop in 2010. Here are some of the quotes from survey respondents: "Slow pace, but better than last year at this time."..."Funding issues and cash flow issues continue to affect public sector procurement. Almost all capital acquisitions have been suspended."..."Pricing pressures continue to increase as we see the economy begin to improve. Orders are still lagging in our industry."..."We have seen a slight improvement in business activity over the past month."And somehow this miss is sufficient to blow stocks up to fresh intraday  highs as there is nothing at this point requiring that stocks reflect even a sliver of reality. And as US weakness is supposed to indicate European strength, the EURUSD surges to another fresh intraday high of 1.2629.

We will bring you the official press release is out,although the algo readers sure don't seem to care much about parsing that particular language.

Here is Goldman's less than enthused take:

Nonmfg ISM Softens in June
BOTTOM LINE: Nonmanufacturing ISM index softens in June, led by orders and business activity. Consistent with our forecast of a substantial slowdown in US GDP growth in the second half.

Nonmfg ISM June 53.8 vs. GS 54.0, consensus 55.0, last 55.4

US-MAP 0 (3 for impact, 0 for surprise vs. consensus)

MAIN POINTS:
1. The nonmanufacturing ISM index fell a moderate 1.6 points in June; however, the decline in the new orders index was a more substantial 2.7 points (from 57.1 to 54.4). The business activity index dropped 3 points, although it remains at a fairly high level of 58.1. Other indicators such as employment (49.7 in June from 50.4 in May) and supplier deliveries (unchanged at 53.0) were more stable.

2. The nonmanufacturing ISM is a valuable "what you see is what you get" indicator confirming that the second-half slowdown in US GDP growth appears to have started. We continue to expect real GDP to grow at just 1.5% in the third and fourth quarter.

But who cares, again, the only thing that matters is the AUDJPY currency pair. Nothing else is relevant at this point.

Full Press release:

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the non-manufacturing
sector grew in June for the sixth consecutive month, say the
nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing
ISM Report On Business^®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of
the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey
Committee; and senior vice president — supply management for Hilton
Worldwide. "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 53.8 percent in
June, 1.6 percentage points lower than the 55.4 percent registered in
May, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, but at
a slightly slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index
decreased 3 percentage points to 58.1 percent, reflecting growth for the
seventh consecutive month. The New Orders Index decreased 2.7
percentage points to 54.4 percent, and the Employment Index decreased
0.7 percentage point to 49.7 percent, reflecting contraction after one
month of growth. The Prices Index decreased 6.8 percentage points to
53.8 percent in June, indicating that prices are still increasing but at
a slower rate than in May. According to the NMI, 15 non-manufacturing
industries reported growth in June. Respondents' comments are mostly
positive about business conditions; however, there is concern about the
effect of employment on the economic recovery."

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)

The 15 industries reporting growth in June based on the NMI composite
index — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts,
Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing &
Hunting; Information; Mining; Accommodation & Food Services;
Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Management of
Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Construction;
Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; and
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The two industries
reporting contraction in June are: Other Services and Finance &
Insurance.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

• "The general upswing in the economy, albeit minor, has had a
  positive effect." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)
• "Pricing pressures continue to increase as we see the economy begin
  to improve. Orders are still lagging in our industry." (Professional,
  Scientific & Technical Services)
• "Slow pace, but better than last year at this time." (Accommodation
  & Food Services)
• "Funding issues and cash flow issues continue to affect public
  sector procurement. Almost all capital acquisitions have been
  suspended." (Public Administration)
• "We have seen a slight improvement in business activity over the
  past month." (Wholesale Trade)

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS* JUNE 2010
	Non-Manufacturing						Manufacturing
Index	Series Index June	Series Index May	Percent Point Change	Direction	Rate of Change	Trend** (Months)	Series Index June	Series Index May	Percent Point Change
NMI/PMI	53.8	55.4	-1.6	Growing	Slower	6	56.2	59.7	-3.5
Business Activity/Production	58.1	61.1	-3.0	Growing	Slower	7	61.4	66.6	-5.2
New Orders	54.4	57.1	-2.7	Growing	Slower	10	58.5	65.7	-7.2
Employment	49.7	50.4	-0.7	Contracting	From Growing	1	57.8	59.8	-2.0
Supplier Deliveries	53.0	53.0	0.0	Slowing	Same	3	57.3	61.0	-3.7
Inventories	58.5	62.5	-4.0	Growing	Slower	3	45.8	45.6	+0.2
Prices	53.8	60.6	-6.8	Increasing	Slower	11	57.0	77.5	-20.5
Backlog of Orders	55.5	56.0	-0.5	Growing	Slower	2	57.0	59.5	-2.5
New Export Orders	48.0	53.5	-5.5	Contracting	From Growing	1	56.0	62.0	-6.0
Imports	48.0	56.5	-8.5	Contracting	From Growing	1	56.5	56.5	0.0
Inventory Sentiment	59.0	60.5	-1.5	Too High	Slower	157	N/A	N/A	N/A
Customers' Inventories	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	38.0	32.0	+6.0

* Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^®
data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices
and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^®
data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment,
Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.
** Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Beef (3); Copier Paper; Corrugated Products (4); Cotton Products (2);
Fiberglass Insulation; Food & Beverage; Fuel* (6); Medical
Supplies; Paper Products; Pork (2); Services; Steel (2); and Steel
Products (5).

Commodities Down in Price

Copper Products; Diesel Fuel; Fuel*; Gasoline; and Poly Products.

Commodities in Short Supply

No commodities are reported in short supply.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is
indicated after each item.
*Reported as both up and down in price.

---

JUNE 2010 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX
SUMMARIES

---

NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index)

In June, the NMI registered 53.8 percent, indicating continued growth
in the non-manufacturing sector for the sixth consecutive month, but at
a slightly slower rate than in May. A reading above 50 percent
indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding;
below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally
contracting.

NMI HISTORY

Month	NMI	Month	NMI
June 2010	53.8	Dec 2009	49.8
May 2010	55.4	Nov 2009	48.4
Apr 2010	55.4	Oct 2009	50.1
Mar 2010	55.4	Sep 2009	50.1
Feb 2010	53.0	Aug 2009	48.2
Jan 2010	50.5	Jul 2009	46.7
Average for 12 months — 51.4 High — 55.4 Low — 46.7

Business Activity

ISM's Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in June registered
58.1 percent, a decrease of 3 percentage points when compared to the
61.1 percent registered in May. Fourteen industries reported increased
business activity, and two industries reported decreased activity for
the month of June. Two industries reported no change from May. Comments
from respondents include: "Promotions and sales activity from months ago
starting to pay off" and "Increasing demand."

The industries reporting growth of business activity in June — listed
in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information;
Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing &
Hunting; Mining; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public
Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade;
Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional,
Scientific & Technical Services; Educational Services; and Health
Care & Social Assistance. The two industries reporting decreased
business activity in June are: Retail Trade and Other Services.

Business Activity	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Index
June 2010	35	56	9	58.1
May 2010	38	53	9	61.1
Apr 2010	39	51	10	60.3
Mar 2010	37	50	13	60.0

New Orders

ISM's Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index grew in June for the 10th
consecutive month. The index registered 54.4 percent, which is a
decrease of 2.7 percentage points from the 57.1 percent reported in May.
Comments from respondents include: "Increasing demand" and "Greater
utilization of strategic sourcing opportunities."

The 10 industries reporting growth of new orders in June — listed in
order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment
& Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining;
Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food
Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale
Trade; and Public Administration. The only industry reporting
contraction of new orders in June is Other Services.

New Orders	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Index
June 2010	30	56	14	54.4
May 2010	35	52	13	57.1
Apr 2010	36	53	11	58.2
Mar 2010	37	49	14	62.3

Employment

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in
June after one month of growth. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Employment Index
for June registered 49.7 percent. This reflects a decrease of 0.7
percentage point when compared to the 50.4 percent registered in May.
Eight industries reported increased employment, seven industries
reported decreased employment, and three industries reported unchanged
employment compared to May. Comments from respondents include: "All open
positions either frozen or being eliminated. New early retirement
incentives will further deplete the workforce" and "Result of attrition
and hiring freeze."

The industries reporting an increase in employment in June — listed
in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment
& Recreation; Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support
Services; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care
& Social Assistance; and Information. The industries reporting a
reduction in employment in June — listed in order — are: Other Services;
Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance
& Insurance; Public Administration; Accommodation & Food
Services; and Educational Services.

Employment	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Index
June 2010	18	70	12	49.7
May 2010	22	65	13	50.4
Apr 2010	22	61	17	49.5
Mar 2010	16	65	19	49.8

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 53 percent in June, the same
rate as registered in May, and indicating that supplier deliveries
continued to slow in June. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower
deliveries.

The nine industries reporting slower deliveries in June — listed in
order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction;
Other Services; Utilities; Information; Accommodation & Food
Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale
Trade; and Transportation & Warehousing. The two industries
reporting faster supplier deliveries in June are: Educational Services
and Finance & Insurance.

Supplier Deliveries	% Slower	% Same	% Faster	Index
June 2010	10	86	4	53.0
May 2010	10	86	4	53.0
Apr 2010	13	81	6	53.5
Mar 2010	8	83	9	49.5

Inventories

ISM's Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index registered 58.5 percent in
June, indicating that inventory levels grew in June for the third
consecutive month. Of the total respondents in June, 33 percent
indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments
from respondents include: "Using what we have and not replenishing
stock" and "Cash flow shortage is preventing ordering."

The eight industries reporting an increase in inventories in June —
listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other
Services; Utilities; Information; Management of Companies & Support
Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Professional, Scientific
& Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade. The three industries
reporting decreases in inventories in June are: Accommodation & Food
Services; Finance & Insurance; and Retail Trade.

Inventories	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Index
June 2010	26	65	9	58.5
May 2010	32	61	7	62.5
Apr 2010	26	57	17	54.5
Mar 2010	21	51	28	46.5

Prices

Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased
materials and services increased in June, but at a slower rate than in
May. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for June registered 53.8
percent, 6.8 percentage points lower than the 60.6 percent reported in
May. In June, the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices is
27 percent, the percentage indicating no change in prices paid is 64
percent, and 9 percent of the respondents reported lower prices.

In June, 10 industries reported an increase in prices paid, in the
following order: Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Arts,
Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade;
Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration;
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Educational
Services. The two industries reporting prices as decreasing for the
month of June are: Finance & Insurance and Information.

Prices	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Index
June 2010	27	64	9	53.8
May 2010	35	60	5	60.6
Apr 2010	42	56	2	64.7
Mar 2010	32	63	5	62.9

Backlog of Orders

ISM's Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index grew in June for the
second consecutive month. The index registered 55.5 percent, 0.5
percentage point lower than the 56 percent reported in May. Of the total
respondents in June, 44 percent indicated they do not measure backlog
of orders.

The eight industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in June —
listed in order — are: Information; Management of Companies &
Support Services; Other Services; Construction; Transportation &
Warehousing; Public Administration; Accommodation & Food Services;
and Finance & Insurance. The four industries reporting lower backlog
of orders in June are: Utilities; Educational Services; Professional,
Scientific & Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade.

Backlog of Orders	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Index
June 2010	20	71	9	55.5
May 2010	18	76	6	56.0
Apr 2010	18	63	19	49.5
Mar 2010	22	67	11	55.5

New Export Orders

Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing
activities to be provided outside of the United States by domestically
based personnel contracted in June after three consecutive months of
growth. The New Export Orders Index for June registered 48 percent,
which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the 53.5 percent registered in
May. Of the total respondents in June, 71 percent indicated they either
do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside
of the United States.

The four industries reporting an increase in new export orders in
June are: Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services;
Information; and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation. The three
industries reporting a decrease in export orders in June are: Wholesale
Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Professional,
Scientific & Technical Services.

New Export Orders	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Index
June 2010	11	74	15	48.0
May 2010	19	69	12	53.5
Apr 2010	17	80	3	57.0
Mar 2010	21	73	6	57.5

Imports

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Imports Index contracted in June after
three consecutive months of growth. The index registered 48 percent,
which is 8.5 percentage points lower than the 56.5 percent reported in
May. In June, 63 percent of respondents reported that they do not use,
or do not track, the use of imported materials.

The three industries reporting an increase in the use of imports in
June are: Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical
Services; and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation. The three industries
reporting a decrease in imports for the month of June are: Mining;
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Wholesale Trade.

Imports	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Index
June 2010	7	82	11	48.0
May 2010	15	83	2	56.5
Apr 2010	15	83	2	56.5
Mar 2010	11	80	9	51.0

Inventory Sentiment

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in June
registered 59 percent. This is 1.5 percentage points lower than the 60.5
percent reported in May, indicating that respondents believe their
inventories are too high at this time. In June, 25 percent of
respondents said their inventories were too high, 7 percent said their
inventories were too low, and 68 percent said their inventories were
about right.

The eight industries reporting a feeling that their inventories are
too high in June — listed in order — are: Professional, Scientific &
Technical Services; Construction; Finance & Insurance;
Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Information;
Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The only
industry reporting that inventories are too low in June is Agriculture,
Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

Inventory Sentiment	%Too High	%About Right	%Too Low	Index
June 2010	25	68	7	59.0
May 2010	27	67	6	60.5
Apr 2010	15	77	8	53.5
Mar 2010	20	65	15	52.5

About this Report

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of
non-manufacturing supply managers based on information they have
collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no
representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding
the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in
the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data
sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^®
is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives
nationwide. Membership of the Non-Manufacturing Business Survey
Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution
to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing Business Survey
Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code
categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining;
Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation
& Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate,
Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services;
Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services;
Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment &
Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration;
and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery
Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking;
Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal
Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing
Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month
compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured
(Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders,
Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and
Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each
response, and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are
never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New
Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are
supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to
relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining
indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The NMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four
of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally
adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally
adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties
of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the
prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading
above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy in that
index is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is
generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier
Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below
50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^®
is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management™, the
largest supply management research and education organization in the
United States. The Institute for Supply Management™, established in
1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well
as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply
management profession through its standards of excellence, research,
promotional activities and education.

The full text version of the Non-Manufacturing ISM Report
On Business^® is posted on ISM's Web site at
www.ism.ws on the third business day of every month after 10:10 a.m.
(ET).

The next Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^®
featuring the July 2010 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on
Wednesday, August 4, 2010.

Comments

[Tic tock]

Game over - watch the demo -

[VK]

No China bubble, all is sunshine and roses. Kool-aid for everyone, especially HFT's.

[Wyndtunnel]

The Kool-aid was extra spiked for July 4th Weekend!  It no doubt will wear off...The Day After Tomorrow? The Day After? This Afternoon?

[Leo Kolivakis]

ISM services still expanding, but let's all focus on second derivative. :)

[lizzy36]

What about the employment index? Should we focus on it?

10:00 07/06 US ISM NON-MFG EMPLOYMENT INDEX 49.7 JUN VS. 50.4 MAY

Wow, looks like it is contracting to me.  But then unemployment isn`t a problem in the US and on the extreme off chance that it is, unemployment  it is a lagging indicator......right.

[Prof Gulliver]

Leo is adjusting for Census hiring in 2020.

[Young]

Yeah that's always something in this veritable shit storm of bad (but still tampered with) statistics [Sarcasm]. Why don't you buy this rally Leo, I'll even take the other side.

[EscapeKey]

Well, it's usually on this basis it rallies, when the 2nd derivative is above expected. But now that it isn't, we should only consider the 1st.

How about that for consistency.

[firstdivision]

Yes let us all ignore the second derivative, which would only indicate future direction. 

[demsco]

It is rolling over. How in the world can you ignore the fact that it is in decline. You cheer lead it on the way up because it is a trend, but when it shows a trend on the way down it is "still expanding." I am sure the horse and buggy trade was still expanding on its way out as well... Buy, buy, buy! Wait, it was a shitty report unless you have rose colored glasses on.

[juwes]

Sell rallies.

[homersimpson]

So how much cash are the Feds going to burn through today with this ramp job?

[101 years and c...]

When will GS tell their clients to capitulate on their EURUSD shorts?  What are they down, about 8% in 3 weeks? 

[Hondo]

Bond market not confiming stock move..........fundamental economics suck = market being manipulated by the same criminals as last night.

[TWORIVER]

SPY back to resistance and AUD/JPY not following....look out below

[Kreditanstalt]

On alternate weeks, the group of traders caught flat-footed still in "risk off" assets is skinned by those early into the correct "risk on" stuff.  And then, the next week, vice versa.

It's not called "trading" for nothing.

[EscapeKey]

I'm astonished the bullshit keeps the market going. It's so transparent what is happening, and yet, the market seems completely gravity-defying, with no bounds in reality.

Surely it has to come down sometime, right? Right?

[Turd Ferguson]

No, it doesn't.

There are no "free" markets. In the past 2 years, all semblance of "free" has disappeared. All are now controlled and manipulated. 

[MarketTruth]

+1

Las Vegas is vastly more honest a place than Wall Street.

[Young]

What if we snuck in a bill that outlawed stupidity? Think that might actually do it for this market.

[Eternal Student]

Oh, come on. The PPT got absolutely ambushed and  spanked at the closing on Friday. You didn't expect them to take that lying down, did you? They had to push back to show who's in charge of these markets. :)

[juwes]

I'm convinced we are in an inverse reality to the 1990's, where to be a genius, you simply bought the dips.

Don't think too much, just sell using whatever oscillator you like best.

[Young]

Watched futures late yesterday, double bottom on the hourly then straight up. Nothing could stop them and there was no particual reason (No CNBC, rate hold in Aussieland is not a legitimate reason) so the bears need a breather. Sell this rally.

[godfader]

This will be called the "Barton Biggs bottom".

[Caviar Emptor]

Prices paid: up! Prices received; Down! 

Whammy one: Delivered! Whammy two: Delivered! Yeeha!

[chindit13]

Things couldn't possibly be better.  And I mean that.  That is why the market is rallying.

With the high debt levels, still collapsing real estate, sovereign problems, sealing wax and paper mache solutions, overcapacity in everything, a large oil deposit formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico, and growing unemployment, it is impossible for things to be better.  Thus:  BUY!

Oh, and there's some good news.  Rather than burden BP with a nasty $155 billion fine for spilling 36 million barrels of oil, an Obama Administration anxious to stay rent-free in that nice Washington home until 2016, is going to reduce the fine to $28 million, which as the anal-ists out there know is 6 hours cash flow for BP.

Having made an annual pilgrimage to my country of birth recently, I can report that it is the best of times and the worst of times.  Wall Street, the driver of all "good" things, is basking in its godlike status as a protected species, and the biggest problem faced by the typical WS'er is how to spend those huge bonuses.  Red Fiorano 599 or yellow Gallardo?  The pain of choices! Lots of smiles amongst the BSD's, some of whom are even tossing the occasional quarter at the growing ranks of New York City's homeless population.

Amongst those 305 million Americans not associated with free money and instant access to the political class, it seems to suck really bad.  I might add that I've heard numerous god-fearing, church-going, former Obama supporters say they are praying for his untimely demise, either politically or physically.  If wishing for something, or lighting candles or joss sticks constitutes a capital offense, the Secret Service is going to be very busy.

Damn weird world we have here.

[HarryWanger]

You missed the part about Apple selling a gazillion iThings and more ridiculous price target increases into the stratosphere. AAPL will be the biggest short on the planet come earnings.

[Young]

I actually agree harry. Who the hell flagged that post as junk? AAPL must die.

[ziggy59]

The Mac AtTaCk Cheerleader Team

[Abiggs]

"With Stocks Correlating 100% To AUDJPY" - Am I missing something? If you look at the 1 min chart, ES and AUD/JPY have not traded tick for tick since 7:30 am. If anything, ES and AUD/JPY traded tick for tick every day last week when the market was plunging...

Although I appreciate the originality on this site, objectivity is nowhere to be found. If today's buying after the last 8 days of liquidation surprised anyone, you should probably re-think your logic. This is probably the best opportunity to buy short-term...

[homersimpson]

"If today's buying after the last 8 days of liquidation surprised anyone".. Spoken like a true CNBC commentator. You act like just because there is 8 days of selling that rationalizes a day of buying. BS. If this was 2008 (read: before the banks got access to cheap taxpayer money to gamble on the stock market) the market would've been down to 6000 by now.

[Abiggs]

Unfortunately tisisn't 2008 and would've, could've, should've didn't happen. And 8 days of selling doesn't necessarily rationalize buying but every indicator in the book rationalizes it. I can't agree with you more that the economy is sh*t and banks are gambling w tax payer's money, etc... But you should know the game and this shouldn't be a surprise.

Learn to embrace it and maybe you will make some money... Otherwise, keep up the animosity and keep embracing the group think - Just because someone offers a different persective (and I am not disagreeing with you on the central idea),  you want jump all over me and call me a CNBC commentator. Also, you didn't mention anything about my point on the ES and AUD/JPY divergence. Why? 

[ElvisDog]

Right, but the issue is how much money can you really make on these fake rallies? Big money is made on big moves - 50%, 100%, 200% and more. Can you really make enough on short-term 5-10% moves to justify the risk? It seems to me like playing this market is the classic picking up nickels in front of the oncoming train.

[Abiggs]

Obviously we are comparing apples to oranges. The moves you are referring to take years to play out in indexes - you definitely don't trade for a living...

[ElvisDog]

You are correct. I trade intermediate to longer-term moves. Never short-term moves. For example, if the AUD had dropped below 0.70 I would have gone long in hopes of capturing a 20-30% up move. Since I don't have the resources or the access to information that the big boys (i.e. GS) have it seems foolish to try to short-term trade.

[firstdivision]

I for one was surprised when I woke up after watching the ES get pounded down to 1002 before bed last night.  I still do not see a justification for this "rally" today, and see it only as CB intervention.  If you try to play the RBA statement, then if all was hunkey dory, they would have raised rates.  So I would say that this "rally" if anything beyond those Atari2600's, are just people afraid that they will miss the next leg up.  Too bad for them the next leg is down to fair valuation. 

[Abiggs]

Surprise! The market was oversold short-term...

BTW your (and everyone on this site) atari hft buying and pushing the market up hypothesis is way off. If that was the case, 70% of the market would not be driven by them because half would be out of business chasing after each other... I worked at an hft shop and what you think is the furthest idea away from what their strategies actually do.

[juwes]

Apple is in a golden age.  Even with the necessary 30% clip the market is due, that puts aapl around $180.  BUY.  Buy aapl on the dips and enjoy their utter and complete dominance of every market you can think of (except apple tv).

[Young]

Are you f*cking mad? It doesn't really matter if AAPL-junk was the last piece of shite bought by human beings instead of food, AAPL's gonna tank with the market anyways.

[juwes]

Maybe.  And I already said it would fall with market, but that the rallies consume the sell offs is the point here.  AAPL is something people don't want to sell.

Think MSFT in its glory days, INTC.

Even GE and IBM for a time.

Every beast company gets a free ride during its golden age and it's important not to spend years waiting for the top when markets can ejaculate forty time before running out of... you get the idea.

[Young]

If you're a long term value investor, you'll have no luck convincing people around here - and especially not me. I suggest you go to thestreet.com or any other online business magazine where corporate fundamentals and not macro is the only thing of relevance. Also you may want to weigh in how these past decades with low interest rates have totally inflated equity prices and spurred consumption through huge amounts of debt. PS. I burned my Buffet and Graham books a long time ago.

[juwes]

es trader here.  I just have this experience in stocks that tells me certain stocks are sanity retardants, aapl one of them.  Don't expect it to get below 180 range.  I don't own the damn stock, but I did recommend it to someone around $80 and they listened.  They are sitting nice and pretty unlikely to blow up any time in the next 2 years on that investment.

[Renfield]

USDJPY down to 87.355, down 40 pips in the last hour and been falling for five hours now. I wouldn't have thought this would be rally material...aber confusing.

[juwes]

PCLN and MA had bearish parabolicSARcrossovers in the last couple weeks.  PCLN resulted in a 50 point drop in the 10 days following the previous cross.

This indicator gives false signals as often as any, so stops are a must.

[firstdivision]

TD,

How is that ECRI weekly index looking?

[TWORIVER]

The 30 min reversal bar on AUD/JPY from open is strong, downdraft coming

[dvsteenk]

this melt-up will be short-lived, it's a bull trap, don't buy it (who is?)

a major drop in S&P is imminent

[aaronb17]

Are you looking at the 10y treasury v. S&P five-day chart too?  Suppose there's a risk we'll see a repeat of last Wednesday afternoon?

[aaronb17]

....and, that's what we got.  Of course, the only reason it happened was because I didn't actually put money on it, lol.

[ziggy59]

hoo..hoo...love that HRT Flavored Cool Ade; refreshes and quenches yer thurst mucho better than ICEd REAL-A-TEA..

Theres nuthing better when Wall Street Melts UPP

[herry]

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