ISM Surges, Prints At 56.9, Beats Expectations of 54, As Inventories Supposedly Decline Despite Contribution To Q3 Preliminary GDP Beat

Tyler Durden's picture

Major beat by the Chicago Manufacturing ISM, coming at 56.9, on expectations of 54, compared to 54.4 previous, and the highest since May 2010. Yet not all is rosy, as the majority of respondents still find conditions deteriorating: "The dollar is weakening again, which is resulting in higher costs
for our materials we purchase overseas. It is hurting our profit
"Currency continues to wreak havoc with commodity pricing"; "Customers remain cautious, placing orders at the last minute, making supply planning a challenge." Exports contribute substantially to resounding beat as somehow every country is now seeing surging exports to everyone else, and nobody admits to actually importing. Lastly, inventories, the key contributor to the Q3 preliminary GDP beat declined. Go figure. 

Key ISM Components, all better than prior:

  • New Orders: 58.9 vs. Prev. 51.1
  • Employment: 57.7 vs. Prev. 56.5
  • Prices Paid: 71 vs. Exp. 70.5 (Prev. 70.5)

Yet oddly enough, the main decline was in inventories, the same category that contributed to a major beat in Q3 preliminary GDP.

Here are what the respondents are saying:

  • "The dollar is weakening again, which is resulting in higher costs
    for our materials we purchase overseas. It is hurting our profit
    margins." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Business slowing down but still double digit over last year." (Chemical Products)
  • "Currency continues to wreak havoc with commodity pricing." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "Customers remain cautious, placing orders at the last minute, making supply planning a challenge." (Machinery)
  • "Our customer base — auto manufacturers — is expanding capacity and
    making major capital investments." (Fabricated Metal Products)

Full report.

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ebworthen's picture

Do we believe it?


Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Tyler, stop asking so many questions. Just accept the top line number and don't make waves.

Yours is not to question why, yours is but to consume and die............probably by something you consumed.

vote_libertarian_party's picture

I'm totally confused.  Haven't the regional reports been showing orders and employment down/flat over the past several months?

FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

So, what's massive QE2 needed for again?

Boilermaker's picture

A cake isn't a cake without icing.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

We are well past the cake and icing. In fact, we're firmly into the little flowery decorations on top.

(Sickeningly sweet) Rose anyone?

Boilermaker's picture

Look at REITs, I don't care who you are, THAT's some funny shit.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture


I was thinking over the weekend that it appears more and more correlations and long term common sense trades are beginning to break down as all sanity leaves Earth..........for the moon Alice.

wiskeyrunner's picture

As usual Sunday night I saw the Dow mini futures run up 60 points on a little more than 200 contracts, right at the open. I suspect we see a 40 point range once SPY and DIA open with the cash markets. This same MO has been going on for months. Gap open SPY and sit in a 3-4 point range for 5 hours on light volume. The SP500 is in the same spot it was in March. Last night the SP futures opened with in a few points of were it opened Sunday October 24th. We are exactly in the same spot as we were last Monday @ 9:00am cst, spot on the money.

Pull up your intraday day 30 minute chart and have a look at SPY were it is now. The exact same price as last Monday this same time. 119.52.

A Man without Qualities's picture

Yes, same shit different week.  What's funny is Bberg and Reuters put the strong opening down to the data out of China, but the jump came right at the open, hours before the China data.  I think they are doing a cracking job of fooling the masses, when all the things related to the consumer (jobs, earnings, housing etc) are declining, and someone we have a powerful recovery in the corporate world, pulling us forward.

My guess, QE2 of $100bn per month for 6 months is all we are going to get.  What stealth stimulus goes on behind the scenes is a different matter.

Mongo's picture

This only means they are building more prisons

qussl3's picture

USD/JPY is calling this BS print.

Rogerwilco's picture

That's some great news considering the recession officially ended a year ago. But what does that say about using the ISM as a leading indicator?

Noise most random.

papaswamp's picture

Sort of interesting in light of the earlier report...

"Goods-producing industries' payrolls decreased $1.6 billion, in contrast to an increase of $6.7 billion; manufacturing payrolls decreased $1.0 billion, in contrast to an increase of

$2.3 billion."


Payrolls decreased in a sector that shows an increase in manufacturing.

wiskeyrunner's picture

Last Monday all over again. Same play book over and over and over, like shooting fish in a barrel

Boilermaker's picture

Isn't it amazing that the market was alreay up by the time this 'prints'?


REITs are on a fuck-the-shorts moonshot again today...just because, I guess.

hedgeless_horseman's picture

People will be renting housing from REITs for a long time.

Boilermaker's picture

They just kicked in the after burners now.  IYR up well over 1.5% in 2 know...because they fucking can.

rubearish10's picture

It's an organized sham!

pat53's picture

I'll repeat the same thing I said almost 100 SPX points ago .... THE MARKET IS GOING HIGHER !! Don't fight it, go with it. Still WAY too many shorts to power it higher.

Battleaxe's picture

So it's kind of like a rape?

firstdivision's picture

What is interesting is that Supplier Deliveries is also down quite considerably with the Inventories number. 

Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Good call to Spaulding the other day regarding a buddy's increasing order flow and full bore at CAT ...

Spalding_Smailes's picture



Bought a little u.s. steel today...

DosZap's picture

Well when you consider the GDP figures at 2%, and over 1.5% of that # was inventory, (replacement), not sales....wheres the growth really?.



potatomafia's picture

Weak dollar is our cure all!!!  MUST. MAKE. DOLLAR. DEPRECIATE!


Then we can export more!! 


Oh wait..  You mean a weaker dollar means we have to pay more for base goods used to make things with?..  and energy costs go up too? Who could have possibly seen that coming? Oh, and since the cost of products(living) go up for our domestic consumer (or worker who makes things) we must raise their wages so they dont get squeezed into defaulting on their debt?  Or worse yet, they have to stop buying Ipads??  Geez, you would almost think overhead costs would have to be considered in manufacturing.


Fuck it...  devalue the dollar and squeeze the US people!!!  Bailout banks FTW!!!

Dick Darlington's picture

There's still manufacturing in US? Go figure...

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

McDonalds, KFC, Burger King, Wendy's..........

Cognitive Dissonance's picture


My son some years ago followed the normal rights of passage to adulthood by working in a local McDonald's for nearly a year. One day I asked him exactly what it was he did during his working day.

His explanation described not food preparation but the manufacture of "food".

MachoMan's picture

some beefish substance, cheesesque slice, and the cheapest bun possible with a smidgen of pubes and special sauce?

Everybodys All American's picture

Our federal government as become a hedge fund.

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

All the reason that QE 2.0 is either a) not coming Nov. 3 or b) it is going to be extremely small. Everyone is banking (pun intended) on this large shot of stimulus. Instead, it is a setup for the short of the Century for the big boys.

HarryWanger's picture

No surprise here. Just look at all the regional Fed prints from last week. Pointed directly to this gain.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Harry not sure if you seen my post on saturday but a friend of mine is loaded with orders at his machine shop. He said everything was so,so until 3 weeks ago. Then boom.

20 new jobs taking his old guys back. CAT is really busy.

The dollar drop is helping ... Guys like him (not many anymore) may see a boom going forward.

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Construction spending was higher due to the nebulous/very easy to fudge "improvements", and of course, broadly higher public construction.  Private construction ex. improvements actually fell by almost 3 billion dollars (122 down to 119). 

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