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It Is Getting Ugly Quick In Fiat Land: S&P Now Down 8% YTD In Non-Dilutable Terms
First the fun stuff: gold hit an all time record today. To those who have had the foresight to realize that in the currency devaluation race to the bottom, the only winners will be non-dilutable precious metals (and not industrial gimmickry and bets on China's excess capacity like copper...well, maybe with the reverse alchemy exception of lead), we salute you. In fact, so does the market: the S&P is now down 8% year to date when expressed in ounces of gold. Because while central banks can monetize, sterilize (whatever that means), and dilutize that last remnant of the dying Keynesian religion, the FRN and its equivalents around the world, gold is untouchable, and increases in value with each desparate attempt to save a failed economic system.
Yet the bandwagon is once again getting heavy: the EUR is getting killed after hours, approaching $1.25 and is about to break the E-mini critical 117 yen support once again. Should central bank buyers not materialize, hello gravity. Which would also mean freefall for the ES. The bailout plan is now null and void, and in need of a bailout plan itself. The French banks won: we expect their FX traders to make a killing this year. We hope their contract demands bonus payment in gold.
At least today's market farce where volume was non-existant and allowed the same algos that killed the market to ramp everything up for no reason, will likely not be repeated again tomorrow. We have now entered the next regime.
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Your use of the pejorative term insults some of the people you might seek to reach with your words. Either you don't know this, or you don't care. If you don't care, then your sense of superiority is blocking your own efforts to win hearts and minds.
See?
P.S. if you think you're hurting my feelings by insulting Republicans, you obviously know nothing about me.
I don't seek to reach anybody, Rep,Dem, left right,, you can't be serious, I couldn't care less..You know me??? Your feelings are not my concern...Goodbye..Ayn Rand.
I don't seek to reach anybody,
Lies are not a good basis for any meaningful exchange, anywhere at any time.
What I say, Take it or leave it...Who the HELL are you to lecture me?, or anyone else??
Oh I get it,, YOU WILL DECIDE MEANINGFUL EXCHANGES, your ISO pamphlet will follow I suppose.. Many vods I should know better..
I merely tried to point out that you might have better luck getting people to rationally consider the information you post if you didn't make it a point to include insults in your posts. You responded by repeating your insult, then saying that you weren't trying to reach anybody with your words. That is an obvious lie, as your posts are extremely long and ideological. Are we supposed to read them and NOT be moved to consider the information presented? Are your posts mere intellectual masturbation? Does everyone here at ZH already agree with you? I think it's obvious that you are trying to reach people, so your contention that you're not is an obvious lie. Isn't it?
Perhaps I went too far, though. Personally, I find it difficult to have a meaningful exchange of ideas with someone who includes obvious lies, and also with someone who chooses to insult me, and then repeats the insult when challenged on it.
Clear?
FWIW, I am involved in a Tea Party and have been welcomed openly, and given reponsibility, while making it clear that I dislike the national republican party, nearly all of our home state's Congressional delegation (especially my own Congressman, who is a high ranking republican), and am a libertarian-capitalist. While the membership is mostly white, middle class, and middle age, that is not a crime as far as I know, though I am certain that there a those who'd like it to be one. My observation in my local group has been that the charges of racism are without basis, the leadership would not tolerate it, yet the charges persist at the national level as an easy emotional handle with which to push people around.
So too is the the "teabagger" thing. It reveals extreme shallowness, inability to argue on merits, and an appeal to baser emotions rather than logic that would make Hitler proud. I see a lot of that on huffpo, for example, which is a split personality of very intelligent analysis of financial shenanigans with a large amount of vitriolic hatred spewed at the new resistance, with lots and lots of "Yeah, I hate them too, because they're stupid!" comments when the hit-producing articles are regularly posted there. Using the term detracts severely (in my opinion) from the otherwise complex nature of your posts.
Hey look, two paragraphs.
My paragraph response was for the benefit of,, DoChenRollingBearing, not you,,,Learn the directory tree.. All about me, are you??
OK, we might be in the same life raft. I row, you bail...
We both win..
Or one of the two falls inadvertly into the sea. Boat no longer sinking. Only remains rowing.
"...So too is the the "teabagger" thing. It reveals extreme shallowness, inability to argue on merits, and an appeal to baser emotions rather than logic that would make Hitler proud. "
Ah yes. Well, invoking Godwin's Law hardly constitutes a grand argument Ricky. Irony sure is a slippery succubus when she tosses your salad with her forked tongue.
Strange, my pants are tightening at the inseam.
Regards
Don't point out what luck I may have with your misapplied contention of the Tea Bagger quote.. Do you have sexual fixations? What a leap...I tried not to fall for it, but you are now tiring me out..
Clear?
I think I get it...you don't know what teabagging is. Everyone else seems to, and that's where the pejorative came from.
Oh, I see, I am just getting that the political dude is upset about being called a teabagger.
See, I don't know *anyone* on the planet that doesn't *immediately* call them Teabagger. It's so ingrained, automatic, it's easy to short-circuit the sexual innuendo step.
That was a seriously unfortunate choice of names Armey made. It may have intellectual merit, or whevs, but everyone outside it couldn't laugh about it any more if it was called The Fisting Pee-Sex party.
My advice would be to push the big red reset button on the name.
The process of folks coming together to discuss the topics of the day is cool. I have big issues with using folks like Grover Nordquist as a sled dog as it abuses all the other worthy dogs on the team.
Egos. They always pop up when you don't need them.
I agree with SWR, the people in the tea party movement have taken at least a step-if not more-toward breaking out of the two party one party system of groupthink. If nothing else, I think we need to try and reach these folks because they have taken an overt step out of the box. I too am frustrated with the tea party for allowing the republican party to seemingly gain too much influence--though I think they may be our chance of either getting more power to an existing third party, or creating a new party that could bring our current politicans and banksters to justice. Yeah, I know, keep dreaming.
So in short, my opinion is that insulting them is bad and criticism is good.
Geo I like your posts and enjoy reading them but I understand SW taking offense because you are trying to categorize him and the ideals that the Tea Party is based upon and he is correct in stating the resorting to calling Tea Party members "Teabaggers" is the same kind of unnecessary cheap shot that resorts to name calling and attempting to emasculate members. It is the same kind of phrasing that now forces me to give Matt Taibbi a crooked eye while reading. The Tea Party cannot reclaim the Republican party and it must stand alone. I believe my self a centrist and constitutionalist and am proud of the natural liberties this nation used to provide and was intended to provide to prevent what is occurring presently from occurring before our eyes. I for one do not agree with the attempts of people like Sarah Palin to hijack the party. It is an exploitation and obvious to those with a brain. We should also commend and appreciate that the Tea Party is now the most significant political party to exist in a century and based upon common ideals and not a singular person. We must prevent it from being labeled a racist themed party because those are the misguiding of liberals who wish to discredit the party out of fear.
We all have enough in common or we would not be hear but I understand SWR's taking of offense.
Tea bag parties lack the credibility of their meritorious predecessors. The tea bag party was led under the disguise of indian clothes to held the terrorist attack on private proverty.
Where are present days tea baggers disguising as muslims?
Cant work until that point.
I agree SWRichmond. I spend time trying to convince Athiets they should be respectful of Christians as they will make more skeptics and eventually more Atheists that way, but they'd rather be rash and preach to the Choir about how dumb religion is.
Geopol does a good job of keeping us fired up, but the message is not for the unwashed.
SWR is right.
- 1 geopol.
I feel contentious tonight,,When you can historically write more than two paragraphs on ZH, please indulge, you might have relevant insights..to my surprise..I am contentious..Please forgive me..
I critiqued your original post NOT for the informational value (which was quite good).
But, insulting people is not they way to win others to agreeing with you. Were it not for the cheap shots, your post was very good and informative.
Contentiousness is OK, but being close to vile is not.
Forgiven? Naah...
You are a captive in the prison house of the mind,,, PC,, the moral nation...
You're bagging junks tonight, dude.
Wonder what they're putting in that tea to get people so... energized.
More junks on ZH is my energized goal.. They waste thier uninformed envoluntary reaction...
Strong is my desire to call you "brother". People are conditioned to believe illusions that they are in control.
Consider it done...
I can't believe anyone junked your original post. It was excellent and insightful. Nothing wrong with a little debate over some of the finer points of politics in Amerika!
Their version of free speech..the antithesis of the Areopagitica..
SW,
Someone needs to tell O'Bammy also...............He's guilty also.Surely his was a FOPAH.
Some folks have no clue what it means as they say it.
The Tea Party, and Baggers.............not even remotely related.
(as you have so aptly described).
But if you wish to indulge in Teaism or Town Hallering, be careful not to say anything bad about the oil and gas industry. Just a tip...and do not be too surprised or feel betrayed when the corruption is explained to you.
So many romantics, it's just heartbreaking...
I'll read this when I am done listening to the interview with Webster Griffin Tarpley on Jones today. Be back in a moment.
Geopol,
Next time you're going to be away from ZH for more than 1 week, you must get a signed note of dissmissal from Cheeky Bastard or myself. :>)
Thank you for the always insightful insight.
Anger Management products for the sole financial benefit of ZH addressing just about everything Geopol says--check it out:
www.zazzle.com/Howard_Beale
A ZH approved fundraising site.
bookmarked your site Howard.. I might buy some and give away as a present if someone subscribers to our premium content. .. wanna advertise your site on my site..lol!!
Nice work. Thank you.
Great post, at least until the last paragraph. There are plenty of Bankster shills in both parties, so your attack on the GOP and Tea Partiers in particular reeks of the worn out false left-right paradigm the MSM bombards us with. There hasn't been an election since the Tea Party movement got started, so obviously all the same old Neocon Bankster Republicans are still in office. The Bankster-Leftist MSM parrots terms like "Tea Baggers" and tries to portray the movement as crotchety old white racist domestic terrorists in an effort to discredit the movement and keep the Neocon Banksters in control of the GOP, since both parties are currently Bankster bought and paid for, and exist as a way to fool and distract the gullible with the false left-right paradigm; any ousting of the Neocon Banksters from the GOP would upset this balance and give the people a taste of honest government "by the people, and for the people", and that cannot be allowed. Judging from the tone of the rest of your post, I would expect you to avoid using the same terms and tactics as the Bankster-Leftists. I don't hold out much hope that the Tea Party movement will succeed in taking over the GOP, but there is certainly no hope at all of anything good coming from the democrats, judging by their pathetic excuse for a financial reform bill, and the complete gutting of the Audit the Fed amendment, as demanded by the Obama administration.
The GOP masquerades as a free market entity which escorts the false discontinuity of the left right swing more than the dems...They are all one in the same fictionally...
I'm a political atheist...
That is true, the current GOP neocons are corporatists, or fascists if you prefer, and wouldn't know a free market if it bit them in the ass. I agree with you completely about banning CDOs, derivatives, and all the other explosive garbage that Wall Street produces. Repeal the Federal Reserve's charter, reinstate Glass-Stiegel, use Antitrust laws to keep banks from ever getting TBTF, ban fractional reserve banking... hell, we could potentially have a real economy, then. At least until the next generation came along and forgot all about it and fell for the same old tricks.
There are a lot of us that are changing the party from within. Your critiques were valid a few years ago, but the Tea Party, and the libertarian surge within the GOP is not something to be dismissed, and certainly not something to be called "gay".
Yes, there are still a lot of bad people in the GOP, but they will be gone, or will have changed their tune well before 2012. The Tea Party is 1/3rd of all Americans. That is not a bloc to be trifled with (and certainly not one to belittle with homosexual epithets).
To clarify, tea-bagging is not gay. There are a bunch of dudes on a previous post that want to tea bag MCC....ok, bad example (SHE LOOKA LIKE A MAN) but I made my point.
I never thought it was a gay thing, the word has been around for ever, I still have my "Team Tea Bag" Lapel pins from a college party 15 years ago.
Now if you called me Rusty or Lucky Piere that would be a different story...
You post without reading the string in total... Sad...but this is the current state of our educational demise....Long books,,,no way...
In my conversations with folks, I am starting to see political atheism catching on,
which is quite refreshing and a big step forward...but probably not enough at this late stage in the game...
Not as late as you think,,, when people can't afford Fenway Park THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY...sad, but look out, they will be pissed....Bread and circuses...you know the routine...
What do you and Geopol mean by "political atheism"? I've not heard that term coined before. Do you believe all politics to be an exercise in futility; or are you referring to seeing that the two party system in the US(or more parties in other countries) is a joke, as they are both owned by the Banksters?
Your meandering towards the truth..
it's late or maybe early.
i am meandering too.
i know people would riot if fenway compromised. quite frankly that religion, is my adopted religion. i like it, it is all in your mind. thank god, boston knows it's true temples of worshiping and gathering places.
why can't we all get along?
geopol, i bless you.
I mean there's not a dimes worth of difference between the two parties and to carry water for either party is foolhardy. We have the best government money can buy...no matter who is in power.
As the economist John Kenneth Galbraith noted of the era leading up to the Great Depression- "The threat to men of great dignity, privilege and pretense is not from the radicals they revile; it is from accepting their own myth. Exposure to reality remains the nemesis of the great--a little understood thing."
JKG once again setting up a straw man to knock down.
The market sorts out false pride.
Government intervention is the worst conceit.
Td's summary is prescient - the road map to the short term future laid out.
Lets see where are we ? -Monday was indulgence party day
Tuesday was Indigestion day
Wednesday - Heart Attack
Thursday - Mortis
Friday - We bury them
And NO the Britts have no way to bail out the Euro -their buckets are being used 24/7 in that sinking ship of state.
+19.30 Ag
Tomorrow we will have dinner in hell...
http://midasfinancialmarkets.blogspot.com/2010/05/tomorrow-we-will-dinne...
Looks like someone started buying EUR/USD.
I see 1.26, what are you looking at?
I'll second or third all TD accolades (how many we up to?)
Big thought on news just in: "Dow plunged when prop traders withdrew liquidity, says SEC" ....That's close to what I've been saying is the truth.
I think the HFT algos (70% of "liquidity') were running on thin volume, Goldman to Goldman trading for several months and got blindsided when sellers came in on the slightest volume. Knocked over the Matrix with a feather.
So rather than a "Black Swan" event it was a White Swan that tripped them up because they never saw it coming.
That's the Achilles' Heal of this market: Valuations have been determined on extremely thin volume with very little of the usual tug of war over price seen under more normal conditions. Support levels are therefore also thin. There's huge, huge float out there as a result of record secondaries (which have been undercounted during earnings reports to make EPS look better), and I suspect there are big pools of stock being held by banks as a result of the Fed liquidity orgy of 2009 which are still waiting for the right time to be dumped on the 401k crowd (which hasn't come in yet).
Net net the props were selling into a market with no natural buyers, since their own shops have been doing most of the trading through HFT.
Another way the SEC might have put it: Dow plunged when props discovered they had been on both sides of the market all along.
I'm no investing genius, most of the above was wayyyy over my head, but I did get the last part of it - the market was acting like the Fed, buying up T-Bills from the Treasury. In effect, the market was monetizing itself with programmed HFT volume, and when someone decided to cash in, well, the vault was full of transaction slips?
What is amazing is some people still believe in dollar deflation.
Ya it came during the great depression because dollars were pegged fractionally reserved against gold. Gold when fixed like this will drag down prices on the inflated fluffed fiat portion of the money. If people go cash only then there will be a deflation event that will help implode the already imploding mythical retirement soc security money market. Otherwise there will be tremendous inflation on every asset but most notably inflation on real gold as that is so dilluted at this point it's beyond ludicrous.
There never was any deflation during the great depression. It was a fable. A couple banks sold a couple things for super cheap it didn't last. I mean oklahoma kansas etc was turned into a dust bowl because they started farming parts of the country wihout sufficient top soil because wheat prices were so high nobody could resist putting a plow to anything and everything. What exactly is deflationary about super high food prices?
The only problem is housing. The banks are getting stuffed to the gills with it. The stuff is beyond a zero sum asset. It's got huge taxes and maintenance costs associated with it. They had better dump it before all the abandoned houses get turned to trash and crack houses. Deflation is never universal or lasting when you have a fractional reserve economy. It's against the rules.
It is repeatedly said that Japan is undergoing a chronic deflation lasting decades. Do you agree?
No I don't agree. But it can be presented that way. Which is what money changers are best at. Name 2 large consumer necessities that have deflated in japan since 1987. Just because 1000 square foot apartments have plumetted from 1 million dollars to 600,000 dollars doesn't mean cars, food, electronics, machine tools, clothes have.
1987 600cc motorcycle about 3500 dollars.
2010 600cc motorcycle about 7000 dollars.
Though you are getting alot more bike.
Name something significantly cheaper in Japan other than rent or housing. Name it. Tell a lie big enough and simple enough and repeat it often enough....
In "Thriving During Challenging Times" I agree with Tyler's observations about the end of the fiat currency and the importance of gold, but that should only be part of your strategy. A geothermal heating system, solar domestic hot water and a good root cellar to store your vegetables are a great supplement to your gold. Resilience to the coming economic shocks should include all the things that make your home independent. Nothing nicer than a shower in water heated by the sun when the fiat currency is tanking. Save your gold for a rainy day. Use your fiat currency today to buy stuff to be more independent before it devalues. www.cammather.com
I'm still not sold on the gold argument. Again, if we deflate, gold will deflate also. Now assuming we do hyperinflate gold would indeed be very, very valuable. Problem is that in centrally planned governments holding real money is often times forbidden (think Cuba, NK, Venezuela or US 1930's). If gold reaches $5,000 would the government not expropriate it though foced conversion? If that happens what can you do? Physical gold cannot be used in retail transactions and it is sufficiently rare so as to be easily traceable. Even in the best case scenario where you hide away your gold, you would still not be able to use it (and thus has extremely reduced value)
That said, I honestly do not believe governments can hyperinflate their way out of this crisis because money supply is 95% controlled by banks at this point. Pushing credit directly into the economy could cause that 95% to collapse before you could reflate. Further, if we deflate, there are a lot better investments than 25% in 1 year.
Best,
Arm
Gold maintains its store of value (unless manipulated). It does not appreciate, it does not depreciate. It maintains its value in terms of each given situation. Besides, what is a price? What is a number?
The government will not be able to stop the transactions, and there is no way they will try to confiscate it. No way.
And about using it as a medium of exchange: Big purchases with gold (think land/houses) and small with silver (tab at your local grocer).
Good luck,
LH
"Gold maintains its store of value (unless manipulated). It does not appreciate, it does not depreciate. It maintains its value in terms of each given situation."
That's hilarious.
Nother naive dolt disconnected from reality. Drugs and illegal aliens are both illegal in this country, yet are a multi billion $ industry. Entire counties in Cali are propped by the drug trade. Don't tell me I won't be able to find a black market customer for gold when fiat crumbles and gold possession becomes illegal. Besides... Brass is also usually held in proportional quantities to gold, silver and pot.
I have a one hundred TRILLION dollar note on my wall. From Zimbabwe, of course. Still, it makes me think about the value of paper money.....and the fact that even that impressive figure could not buy one local egg. To me, gold is a form of insurance.
Confiscation of gold or silver will never happen, because finding it will be an absolute nightmare for the "authorities". It can disappear, and those of us who hold physical are also very clever in our hiding places. Sure, they can make it "illegal" but how do they stop the black markets? Even in the USSR they had massive black markets that catered to party types as well as the plebes, as long as the plebes had stuff to trade. It happens everywhere when the economy melts down. After WWII, the de facto currency in Germany was GI cigarettes in the black markets.
Can you imagine the guffaws and belly-laughs coming from China or Russia or the Middle East if the US outlawed gold? It would be seen as a naive, third-world mistake, and the USDollar would be immediately shunned as being worthless. The price of oil would skyrocket, for example, when the Saudis realized that the crap paper they have been accepting really has no backing. Even the cheap crap coming from the Chinese would have massive price increases.
If there is any confiscation, it will be of soon-to-be- worthless Federal Reserve Notes. You could wake up one day to find a zero balance in your checking account, along with TV announcements that all old scrip (the green stuff) would be tradable today only for the new scrip (the red or blue or whatever), at a rate of 100 old to ONE new. After today, no more green scrip is legal. 401(k)'s? Ours. IRA's? Ours. UST paper and pensions? Payable only by new scrip at a rate of One new per 100 of old face value. Oh, BTW, the prices for food and housing and medicines will still be the old numbers, but payable in new scrip. In other words, everything just went up in price by a factor of 100.
During the CFTC hearings last month, the truth emerged about the fractional gold and silver trading ratios on LBMA and Crimex: 100 ounces sold for every one ounce in inventory. To me, that says that every ounce of gold and silver has 100 hands reaching for it. So, when the dust settles and the SHTF, gold will have a value 100 times greater than today to level the playing field.
Now, tell me which form of wealth you would bet on for the long term? Personally, I have farmland (with a fresh-water spring), PM's, food, and lead and a lead-injection device. I have ordered a solar panel/battery setup. Pretty paper gets me today's necessities, but I am long "alternative currency."
+100 (oz)
Now that makes sense! Funny even on ZH some (the anti-gold brigade) still hold a deep held belief that this keynesian cluster fuck will somehow right itself. No gold? 9mm, .223, .308 will do just fine (I'll keep the .45 for sentimental reasons - sorry no trade).
After 1950, gold extraction rate has been ramped as never before.
2010: consequence, any new stress on gold demand will send gold to the moon. During the last five decades, recirculation of gold has been dwarfed by the amount of freshly extracted gold.
All decision is when to cash in. People who are in debt have a clear insight on this one.
Gold as a currency is nowhere different as any other currency.
Earlier I posted our Eliott Wave prediction for the ES for trading tomorrow!
We would like to showcase our model and make investors visit to Zero Hedge enjoy their experience even better by offering a complete month of Elliott Wave analysis for readers to see and then after that post a weekly update and a mid-week update....
So if anyone has any pull at Zero Hedge.. pls have someone drop us a line so we can begin contributing! bwm@bostonwealth.net
So this is an open letter to Zero Hedge to make it a better community for those that want to learn futher about ES and how to trade it!
This is what we would like to impart to the Zero Hedge community, so a little about us to see where we are coming from!
While obtaining my master’s degree at George Washington University, I took a management sciences course and this concept of the “Value of Perfect Information” was first introduced.
Combined, the authors on this website are providing you the investor with various and differing information that you can utilize to get as close to the “Value of Perfect Information” as if you had tomorrow’s financial paper in front of you today.
Perfect information would practically mean that all investors know all things, about all stocks, at all times, and therefore always make the best decision regarding investments; in a small way myself, and the authors on this website are attempting to provide you with this “Value of Perfect Information”. Enjoy!
Check-out the DARPA link at the top of this page. I think you have to post some of your work for review before you can have access of that level.
Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.
Thanks.. looked at it before and now.. there is no way one can post on DARPA.. I do not see a post link or anything like that.. am I missing something!
Write an article with intelligent commentary and charts and submit it the tips link.
Howard_Beagle..
..man I have done plenty... here is some of my work.. I called the Dubai stuff a non-event and predicted that Greece would get a bailout from Qatar.. and yes they got $5 billion from Qatar a few days later..
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/12/14/dubai-musings-told-you-so/
I was promised that my Dubai article would be published here.. it never was
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2010/05/01/greeces-savior/
http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=359323&version=1&template_id=57&parent_id=56
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2010/05/04/stock-price-analysis-2/
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2010/03/25/target-from-july-2009-hit/
You don't have to be a guest contributor to get plenty of eyeballs. Post relevant analysis and a link and we'd all like to take a look - even though ~93% will not be investing in anything other than precious metals for some time to come. Sorry, it's Tyler's fault. Long live Tyler!
http://www.zerohedge.com/content/do-you-have-faith-americas-capital-markets
again Howard_Beale.. I truly believe you have to know someone to get into the Zero Hedge Club!
no you dont. for fuck sake they made me a contrib.
thanks.. maybe I will get encouraged again to send info!
You're on the wrong website. One of the attractions of ZH is that it is not inundated by manic daytraders touting their systems and boasting about their performance. Note at the top of this thread, several folks asked "What is ES?" This kind of ignorance is not to be mocked -- it should be admired and cherished. Not knowing ES, is like not knowing Simon Cowell or Miley Cyrus or Oprah -- it's the mark of life spent in pursuit of a more thoughtful existence.
Not offering a daytrading system.. it is all about becoming a probability trader with a modified system that gives you an opportunity to learn to fish. The EW analysis has value in that it will help you in understanding setups and managing risks. However, there are times when you will get a fish and other traders here will do the same. Also, please remember that this is about probabilities, not certainties...and I did provide a link earlier explaining about ES
Is there much point in learning to fish when you live on the Gulf Of Mexico?
"This kind of ignorance is not to be mocked -- it should be admired and cherished. Not knowing ES, is like not knowing Simon Cowell or Miley Cyrus or Oprah -- it's the mark of life spent in pursuit of a more thoughtful existence."
Refreshing - thanks.
+1!
"Combined, the authors on this website are providing you the investor...blah blah blah."
What investors? In this market their are TBTF house sharks, and suckers.
No one should be in the markets because a) participating in a crooked system is aiding and abetting a crooked system, and b) you're asking to get your clock cleaned.
If you need and investment, buy yourself a politician; they're cheap.
some nut was on goldseek radio couple weeks ago who said the decline in the market will start by July, on its way to 3600 by year end, so everyone rush to US treasuries!! LOL
I listen to GS Radio every week religiously.
That nut was Harry S. Dent.
My idiot brother in law read his book and is following his advice, so I know for sure to do the opposite.
If the markets truly crash, treasuries will most likely benefit initially. That's only in the early stages of the crash though. CB intervention might make treasuries a poor investment in the long term.
Full disclosure: I believe a serious collapse is coming and a bit of a preparedness nut (survivalist for you non-politicaly correct).
I'm weird...I'm a fan of silver. This is because I believe the economy will collapse and relatiely localized economies will arise. At this point Gold will be for the extremely wealthy and the value some enormous amont. So in my new world economy if gold is worht $10,000 an ounce and Silver say $100 which do you think will be easier to trade with? Sorth of like trying to buy a gallon of milk with a $10,000 bill...the store doesn't have the change...try cutting the little freaknin 1 ounce round up....versus silver...much easier to trim a bit off to purchase what is needed since it isn't worth as much.
Damn this French wine goes straight to the head..
papas,
Silver's cool (and everyone should own at least 20-30% of their total holdings in it,IMHO)....but, if Gld goes to 10k, Slvr will likely be $5-$600.00oz.........
So, Houston, you would have a good problem either way.Just don't get caught w/100/1000oz bars.............LOL
Real issue making change.
Stage coach silver ounces from Northwest Territorial mint break into 4 pieces, one for every bag of groceries.
I picked up a couple of bags of $100 face value 90% silver coins for buying small stuff when the SHTF. A 90% dime is wourth about a $1.50 at todays silver price.
I still am in investing in Liquor, unlike Gold though it does have a variable half-life depending on social flunctuations.
I still can trade Jack Daniels for food and keep the ammo for back-up leverage.
Junk silver is a nice adjunct to any precious metals holdings.
What can it hoit? Link to see some examples of value below.
http://www.coinflation.com/silver_coin_values.html
$1.3925
1946-1964 Roosevelt DimeNothing wrong with what you are doing. If this thing does break, I will probably buy more land. My original purpose for gold was to pay property taxes. Historically property has been confiscated during these busts due to folks inability to pay taxes and I did not want to get caught with my pants down.. Silver should do great, as witnessed by todays trading..
LOL they have pumped the Euro back to 1.264 suddenly. Who in their right mind would actually go long a Euro right now? I mean the manipulations are so evident its pathetic
RSI is caputs and then all of a sudden out of the blue it rises 100
This just goes to show how arrogant the scum is behind the intervention moves, they don't even try to hide that they are goosing it.
It's all good though, because it just gives you another shorting point above where its headed. 1.20 quickly IMO Ultimately 1 for 1
jk,
At this point, I figure what the hell,let them play their games, we'll get or be ready.Their running their scams, and we are not playin'.
It really has as TD said, Gotten to the point of Absurd...the whole friggin mess.
It reminds me (not a pleasant one) of a poor man who's ON FIRE........
When not ON FIRE, he KNOW's to instinctively hit the ground /roll/dirt...no running.
Once afire, rational thinking/actions, are GONE.
reshorted...
"Who in their right mind would actually go long a Euro right now?"
Helicopter Ben?
----on Tue, 05/11/2010 - 17:59
----#344767----------------------------------------------------------------------------- "who knows what evil lurks within the hearts of men"---- the Shadow is back!!
And ABC consumer confidence the only figures that are out of hours and surprisingly not going up, well why bother, they don't need to fiddle this figure, they can fiddle out of hours thin traded futures instead!
This is getting very very scary, I would not want to be long this market because it could get so down so fast if these computers got nervous..
Didn't they announce the bailout on Sunday? It's been 48 hours and the euro is worse off than before? Amazing what $1T doesn't buy. I wonder if we just reached the dead-center of the W...
Harry Wanger, bitches!
HEIRLOOM VEGETABLE SEEDS
AND A GOOD HORSE WITH SADDLE ,
BITCHES!!!
She spent a lot of time on that saddle wishing she had a pony that didn't bite.
"AND A GOOD HORSE WITH SADDLE"
Horses are way too hard to keep alive out here in the hot and dry state. I do agree about having draft animals though. Ever heard of oxen? They can survive on native grass (no need to buy oats or corn) and have sturdier feet. Also, since they are made of beef they tend to taste better than horses (although the Europeans seem to like that stringy stuff).
And yes, I do have oxen - actually we call them "riding steers", being that they are Texas Longhorns.
LOL!!!
And a watering can.
Why do I feel as the only schmuck that knows the euro will not reach parity with the dollar?
We have reached some apex where people feel as though the ECB will print more money than someone nicknamed "helicopter ben" The guy who will fly around and drop dollar bills from a helicopter.
Do people not understand this one motherfucker will print dollars just because he can? Sure European banks can short the euro, but Ben will just print them to shame.
This certainly is a fine mess we're in - "where she stops, nobody knows". We could have avoided this catastrophe if only there were an anwser to the question: "What exactly is a dollar?"
Fix it,
If your the Fed, and Bernanke, it's simply another digit,added,subtracted..................not really even printed.
A fine mess indeed...
GLD is already 'somewhat' diluted terms...
Just back from costco. $7 box of cereal is up to $9. Going long on Kashi.
I was talking to a butcher yesterday and he said the meat market is getting "scary" out there, the price is skyrocketing.
I buy my meat in bulk so I don't watch the pricing that close.
Skyrocketing meat prices is what happens when you subsidize making fuel out of animal feed(corn). Making fuel out of food is the crazy.
The scariest part of it is that on the producer level (where I am) the price we get for sending feeder calves across the scale seem to be going down. I wonder if the packers are the ones making up the difference?
Nice! Or they maintain the price point and cut the package from 16 ozzies to 12 ozzies. And to add insult to injury, I bought some Iced Oatmeals cookies and the fricking cokkies had shrunk - they were about as big as a Ritz Cracker. That ain't right!
Now thats the last straw.
$1300 gold by Friday.
ssshhhh... keep it under ya hat!
You mention copper. As a mineral economist and mining engineer, the price of copper should be trading at about $1.30/lb. Call up a 5 year chart of price and compare it to the five year inventories on the LME and you will see what I mean. It should be plunging towards the marginal cost of production shortly.
'The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides with the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and good will shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon those with great vengeance and with furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers. And you will know that my name is Gold when I lay my vengeance upon thee.'
EU is straight out of an Oliver Twist scene. Have a look. To surreal.
Oliver! - You've Got To Pick A Pocket Or two
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HazQlWgdzg&feature=related
luring in final shorts in EUR after the knee jerk short squeeze.. almost every trader on the planet short euro including cab drivers -- ship is near sinking..
wait for the swap gates to open and shorts lift it up to 1.40.. its a micro analogy of the setup happened after the TARP annoucement till benron flooded the mkt with bucks in Apr 09..
yup...
I'm long EUR/USD and short gold at this moment.
Short gold just b.c it's over done short term. EUR/USD has clear upward potential.
If you guys are long EUR then you are taking a whipping that you don't need to take and it is about to get worse. 1.20 is inevitable either by end of the week or early next. Eventually look for 1 to 1 as the house of cards falls. UK already stated they want no part of bailing out Europe and as things get worse, and as stated earlier, the bailout needs a bailout of its own, riots will begin in Europe sinking the EUR. Just a matter of time.
I bet you my central banker prints more than your central banker prints.
Yep, Helicopter Ben and his QE swap lines to the rescue!
Yea those debt laden currencies are looking real spiffy.
It may seem like the crash of May 6th 2010 is already forgotten. But in just a few days we are back in global crisis mode. Currency instability, global central bank coordination, extreme bailout packages, credit spreads widened, talk of double dip recessions beginning with Europe, Shanghai Stock exchange already officially in bear market. And that's only the economic side. Unlike 2008, there's much more political volatility and risk (German and UK elections, Greek riots).
To all you inflationistas versus deflationistas: the answer is you are both correct. Net worth is deflating while cost of living is inflating. Today's China figures confirmed the fear. It's all following the law of unintended consequences: the Fed bailout is weakening the middle class and small business in a major way, forcing them to do a full split between deflating assets and inflating cost structure.
Mish states that we can't have deflation and inflation at the same time. But I am with you and learn a lot from your posts. Thanks.
Hehe...Mish is thinking wishfully, also clinging to dogma. Unfortunately for the economy, it's worse than just one or the other. It stems from the gross misallocations that happened as a result of massive bailouts, and the 30 cycle of supply-side (1 sided) economics.
It's a deflationary setup with a hot money parasite hopping from one place to another like a crazy cancerous monkey, detonating one bubble/scam after another. Confusing optics on the surface, but ask yourself where average real disposable household income has been going the past 30 years. There's your answer.
NOTE: Credit doesn't count as actual economic activity; it's a delusion based on temporal shifting of activity.
A cheaper currency is essential to the macro euro-scumbag-union bailout. Saving the Euro = devaluing the Euro. See the big crocodile tears running down the cheeks of German exporters. Why do you think they signed off on this? 'Cuz they really feel oh-so-badly for their swarthy deadbeat brethren and their life-is-a-beach lifestyle? What you're seeing is distribution: caveat emptor.
Except for the ECB swaps with the FED which will pretty much guarantee that euro/dollar parity will not happen.
caveat emptor sir
i am one of those people. i think gold hits 2-3k by end of year
5-10k long term. schiff is right
this chart says it all
http://www.businessinsider.com/here-is-why-the-fed-cannot-simply-continu...
Fekete wrote about "The Marginal Productivity of Debt" a couple years ago. It is indeed wondrous to live in an age where cranks become sages, and prophets are vindicated in their lifetime.
we live in the most interesting times ever........that is for sure. and manic day to day.
Antal Fekete is one of the real geniuses of the gold world. I read that article too. I recommend that everyone here at ZH check it out.
It should not take long to see if the $1 trillion extra debt for the Euro-zone will lower their productivity. A good test-case if you will.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/S-mqIXpUGgI/AAAAAAAAMxY/B1MjbHo_g1...
This chart is from Jesse's Cafe Americain. Nice short essay also
No one wrote about Greece? =)
Greece may have put the match to the dry wood pile of pent up political tensions in Euroland (with implications for US too). Just wait until we get our version of "austerity" as the stimulus dries up and broke states and municipalities cut services. Perfect storm for an election year.
For EUR/USD shorts:
Ben is the hustle with the muscle. I'm warning you, you will get burned. Ben will make it rain.
Just fair warning, thats all it is.
Harry Wanger, is that you??? Come on, be honest...
I don't think he's Harry Wanger. After reading this post and learning how the Fed's "swap lines" actually function, I don't have the balls to be short the euro to parity. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fx-swap-lines-horses-mouth
I understand your point, but you have to consider political risk in addition to economic/CBmanipulation factors. First the your-owe will be devalued (German exporters uber alles), and then it will disintegrate politically. Even in the through-the-looking-glass world of Fed Fx swaps, division by zero is still not allowed.
No. I am Mr. Bob Dabolina.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEPOgntWfiE