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It Is Just Surreal Now: UMichigan Consumer Confidence Index At Laughable 76, Highest Since January 2008
The only thing worse than the oil flowing out of the GoM gusher, is the BS now openly flowing out of the government propaganda machine, which has jumped the shark beyond all semblance of credibility. How consumer confidence in May was the highest in over two years, at 76, higher than April's already ludicrous 73.6, and highest since January 2008, is not even worthy of commentary. It must have been the flash crash, the BP oilspill catastrophe, the market's 10% drop and Europe's bankruptcy that really pushed consumer confidence to that near record level... Just who do these people call to "gauge" confidence anyway: just Barack Obama, the president, the POTUS, and the Teleprompter in Chief (not necessarily in that order)? We must have missed when the Chinese ministry of propaganda, data fudging and bullshit, LBOed the US government's data dissemination bureaus (no doubt with Goldman Sachs pocketing a cool billion in advisory fees, and even throwing in a free second lien on Mykonos in the process), but with this most recent release we have no doubt it happened.
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Let me think, what happened last time it was this high?? Oh, that's right the market crashed a few months later.
Yep that consumer is a great indicator of the economy.
Wait...UofM...isn't that the school in favor of racial quotas?
Let me make a prediction:
Moody's Downgrades UofMichigan
From University... to semi pro football team.
Not to mention that the consumer sentiment statistic has stopped meaning anything. We have seldom in our history had such a massive government mis-information campaign as we have now. (For example, first quarter GDP is revised down yet again). If we're going to measure consumer sentiment, we have to also take into account what the consumer is basing this sentiment upon.
The consumer is being lied to on a daily basis. The mainstream media still talks about "the recovery" without ever questioning whether or not there even is one. Obama is declaring "victory" in his banking overhaul bill today. Consumer sentiment is merely a derivative of government propaganda. It's measurement is therefore just another permutation of bullshit.
Sep. 23rd-24th?..
But the market is up on this news.. BUY BUY BUY.
whatever ...
massive controlled distribution underway ...check out for yourselves
In other news, some idiot on CNBC named Steve in Toronto is saying the US stress tests were legit and the market has responded to them. Whutta tool.
Give us a break guys. It's the only thing rising in Michigan.
I'm in Metro Detroit and work in the auto industry. I don't know ANYBODY who is even remotely bullish.
Same here (Royal Oak area) but I do run into people who think this temp. hiring spurt is a good indicator. It's actually the opposite. These temps can and will be kicked to the curb as quick as they were plucked in. It's the difference between renting and buying furniture.
I live and work in Troy...we aren't hiring anyone yet, even temps. I just don't get it. I don't know who these people are 'surveying' but this is obviously meant to force a foreknown result.
I believe the phrase goes "it looks like up to me."
Did you try "<HELP> for explanation"? I'd really like to hear them explain these numbers...
This site is such an education, Tyler I had no idea what you meant.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jumping_the_shark
Apparently if you dont pick up the phone when Michigan calls to ask your confidence, that means you are out at work, which means you are confident and they fill in the answers for you.
When actually, you have walked away from your mortgage and are living in a box under a bridge.
This site is such an education, Tyler I had no idea what you meant.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jumping_the_shark
Fantastic!
I really, really hope you're not American.
Because if you are, you are either making me feel old or like I wasted my youth watching TV or both.
I am not sure where those people live, but just recently had two restuarants close here. In fact, one owner sent an email to customers asking for business or else the doors will be closed tomorrow. I have too many friends out of work for too long. This is just bullshit and it pisses me off.
Come Friday, 1.2 million people will lose access to the extended unemployment benefits, a number that will grow by several hundred thousand every week after that. The next UMich poll should read about 81 I'll bet.
Amazing what adding PROZAC into the tapwater will do to a person he? :)
When does the next Gallup survey come out?
UMichigan means University of Michigan????
The Harvard of the Midwest . . . to quote JFK.
Uhhhh....I think you mean Purdue.
Spoiler . . .
Harvard, the Michigan of the east.
Si
If consumer confidence is so high why are sales tax receipts plunging nationwide?
Must have been using the Rahm Emanual rolodex for those calls. Consumer sentiment is a lagging indicator and I actually like how toppy this number looks here.
Yes. As I said, last time it was this high was just before the biggest crash since the Depression. Must be telling us something.
When will it dawn on these people that fudging numbers and putting lipstick on pigs will slowly and surely kill their credibility, ultimately creating a larger and much more severe crisis than what we've seen to date? Just because it takes Joey Sixpack a while to understand the fudging-game doesn't mean he'll never understand it......
Confidence female dogs!
Cmon...you can do better than that.....:>)
The US Gov is not even trying to hide their massive fraud.
Side Note: The WikiLeaks guy will probably be suicided. Hope he does not fly in any airplanes or go near tall buildings.
This is what happens when you control the MSM.......who is there to refute the BS??
Ouuw...wait...I'm starting....uh.....uh....the consumer in me is starting....... to feel sooooo good!
As anyone who watches college football at sportsbars during the Fall on Satuday afternoons in Manhattan knows, nothing good comes out of the University of Michigan.
With them revising down the GDP numbers, I had a stinking suspicion that the sentiment readings would be a big number.
Anyone have the new ECRI number?
Put a mustache and a beret on rahm and call him bob
It's almost funny to see the numbers today. Futures were up because of the "positive" news on financial reform... until we went negative. So then we've got the UofM report and we went back up... until now we're negative again.
Is there anything else coming out today?
The entire UoM polling sample consists of all the 258 happy inhabitants of western Mykonos.
It is my understanding that this is a random survey of various organizations, such as The American Optimists Club, ACORN, Hope & Change For America, Yes We Can!...and various College Fraternities with survey calls limited to Friday/Saturday nights around Midnight...
Buy AAPL! Or not:
MarketWatch: Apple is flashing some technical warning signs
"Go ahead! Bite the big Apple - don't mind the maggots"
We're all living in Wonderland now.
Well, I live in Ann Arbor - and I can definitely confirm that most of Michigan is delusional. So any report like this coming out of the U of M is to be expected. lol
It is stunning to see MOSTLY brand-new cars on the road around here, with real unemployment in the 20% range. And for-sale signs sprouting up again like weeds in upscale neighborhoods. Still - I have no doubt that 7 people out of 10 would tell you that the economy has turned around & its all good going forward. Based on what? People are buying cars again. It is as simple as that. I know that this index is not based on Michigan... but this is one of the places that *should* be contributing negatively to an index like this, and I am confident that is not the case.
You're in Ann-Arbor and NOT perving on college birds right now?? Shiiiit
Sorry - I'm 40-something, and there's too much creepy factor with my daughter & her friends getting close to college age.
That said, UMich = fat/homely smart chicks. Michigan State = the ones you'd want to consider... ;-)
Creepy is the new Mysterious. Only difference is the position of the zipper.
AWESOME. Can i borrow that one?
Don't they mostly drive American cars in Michigan?
is this the first signs of an inflationary spring? buy now my little duckings, it's not getting any cheaper (except maybe equities).
Orwellian for sure. But the people are ready for the truth. If a politician was really listening they would get elected just by being honest and letting their constituency know that we have real problems.
But that would be "unexpected."
sschu
It's beginning to happen. Paul Ryan, for one.
Paul Ryan = awesome. (Minus the tarp vote, of course)
Even the politicians we currently have are being lied to. You would have to be crazy to be elected into this maelstrom/bedlam/ground zero. The only reason you would want to join the party at this late hour is with the hope of getting your family into one of the numerous underground facilities designed for continuity of gov't. Otherwise you're toast.
It doesn't matter who is elected. There is no steering wheel anymore. There are too many people set to starve if one glitch occurs in the USA Feeding Program.
Forget it. Tell people in LA, AL, FL they have a future - if they are as informed as the majority of the US they'll be hopeful it turns around soon enough and get back to watching Dateline and checking their Netflix que. If they have any inclination to discover the truth they'll know they can't reside there anymore. It's over. And the continued faking of crime statistics will only serve to increase the victim count.
USA pay its bills? Everyone with access to even "official" data, and can do math, knows it's all downhill from here. Restructure? Sure, in a vacuum; in a lab. You can promise crack addicts that food is on the way - but they are much more resourceful than that and they actually believe they have the right to take it by force. Scrounging 2,000 calories a day is a bitch.
To vote is to consent to be governed by dictators and criminal children. Go Galt!
Reasons to be cheerful, part 3:
http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/15/real_estate/new_housing_bubble/index.htm
You have to laugh:
Once the job market rebounds, however, people will look to have their own homes again. This pent-up demand could get unleashed on unprepared markets, causing shortages and rising local prices.
And I'll be the first in line (with 10 million others) to place my house on the market to meet that demand
You go easy when you unleash that house, mind. The market is unprepared.
It's going to be tempting but I'll remain strong. Hate to have the next housing bubble blamed on me.
From the article:
One category is storm water runoff. The Environmental Protection Agency tightened requirement governing how builders handle that. Builders will have to install controls such as catchments or retaining ponds that slow the flow of storm runoff into the local watersheds.
"It could add as much as $15,000 to $30,000 an acre in extra costs, depending on the soil," said Asmus.
Another proposed regulation mandates sprinkler systems in each new home. This is already state law, starting January 2011, in California, Maryland and New Jersey. That adds as much as $10,000 to the cost of construction.
Moving forward, stupid government regulations (like the above) mean houses will cost that much more to build, and that much more to own. Most people already pay for fire insurance, do you think the insurance premiums will come down enough to offset the upfront expense? I have sprinklers in my home and it barely made a difference. Regulations are about wealth redistribution: in California, Maryland and New Jersey, a new industry is born, residential sprinkler installer.
Want to guess what the next mandate will be? I'll bet, annual inspections performed by no other than local fire depts. $500 to start, then eventually every six months at a "reduced fee": $350.
This number is legit. UM is starting to use the birth-death model.
What a bunch of pessimists you all sound like. Can't we just accept the truth and invest with that in mind.
It's a university, not a branch of .gov. Granted they are mostly backstopped by automotive corporations(currently owned by .gov) in close proximity to AnnArbor, MI. and .gov grants but I can assure you that they don't lie. They also state that they have the best football team in the Big10.
Consumers are confident that we're fucked.
Like all lies and scams, they have to get bigger and more outrageous to keep them going. This, of course, is no different.
Kinda like Saddam Hussein getting 99.8% of the votes in the 'election' in Iraq.
Whatever, these guys can go eat a bag of shit at this point. I don't even want to hear this garbage anymore.
OH, and the IYR index is UP. You know, because a downward revised GDP is just so fucking rosy for REITs.
The Bureau of Making Shit Up obviously includes a fair number of "academic" institutions.
After all, it's not as if a taxpayer-subsidized institution like The University of Michigan lacks motivation to fudge gubermint numbers to pull off their latest Kevin "Remain Calm... All is Well" Bacon impression.
Just saying.
I have great respect for the BMSU...how dare you!
as the penguin slowly waves his flippers..."you didn't see anything.."
But Marty, the penguins are psychotic!
Good stuff. And appropriate, too.
tyler dude, chill, a reading of 76 is more reflective of levels of CC in past recessions, not the +100 levels often seen in expansions
readings of CC are interesting anecdotal data artefacts at best, even if they have some degree of historical relevance, they are not highly correlated with consumer activity, i.e. spending or saving, or as tyler might say these days, i.e. defaulting on your mortgage or buying an ipad
No, that it is even at 76 is like saying, "Don't worry folks! We can always eat our shoes if we run out of food!"
A survey of 500 homes is a tiny sample size....error spread should be huge....additionally many aren't in homes anymore. Their study needs to be modified.
Funny. 'A survey of 500 tents' is more like it.
Well, we all know now for sure to throw this indicator out the window (stop subscribing) it's pretty worthless (actually has been for a while). Keep eliminating stupid stuff....use common sense instead....the outcomes are much better....remember there is always those who wish to separate you from your money....the question is...are you stupid enough to let them.
Didn't Government Motors (GMAC) buy everyone in Michigan a new Chevy?
Only the Union members..........
buy, Buy , BUY!!
This poll was taken prior to the government showing they would cut off the unemployment spigot.
Now that some will realize that they will not receive funds forevery, their confidence will begin to fade. And wait until those non-mortgage payers begin to really lose their homes.
The gig is up.
Please don't call that fraud "President"
I know every day Blackstone loses another $ billion or 2 on BP stock improves my confidence considerably.
Man, it's ALL muthafuckin' good!!!
rising number is more a factor of Americans' lack of attention span than anything else. There hasn't been an outright financial collapse for months, unemployment is high but staying level, stock market is rangebound but not collapsing. People get bored without massive shocks to the system, and assume things are getting better because the ened of the world hasn't arrived (yet).
Similar with the BP spill, you can already feel many Americans tiring of the story, at least until the well collapses and oil starts gushing out the ocean floor.
One more giant lie piled on the mountain of lies.
I am expecting (today perhaps) a stock market crash as the group consciousness revolts at the blatant propaganda..the black swan of a sum of lies about our economy and the elites who rule it,
they can lie and lie to us and it has no effect, but human's subconcious keeps a tab.
My subconscious tab has begun an implosion much like a black hole..I fear the markets are now at the brink., the group consciousness cannot accept that one last blatant lie, if not this one then soon.
its looks like they are really nuking the fridge.
Inflation is a trick to steal income while making the victim believe he’s more prosperous because he has more devalued fiat currency in his pocket. It’s the false confidence preached in the FRB-NY’s comic book, The Story of Inflation.
At the Feb’s current clip of counterfeiting the nation’s money supply and debasing its value, there has been a dramatic drop this past decade in Americans’ standard of living based on the declining value of income and purchasing power.
Here is the calculation of just how much loss by Kirk MacKenzie in his new book, Money: Defending Your Prosperity:
“In bank dollars…to stay even (from 2000 to 2009), annual raises would have to have been 15.5%; even higher taking into account higher income tax brackets.”
Says MacKenzie, “Tracking you wealth in bank dollars (Federal Reserve notes and vapors) gives a false illusion of prosperity, and hides the reality of declining savings…you believe you are wealthier, but somehow you can afford less…the constant value of your savings dropped…taken from you by an inflation of the money suppl…transferred to government debt and bank usury.”
The people grow poorer—lose their homes, farms, jobs, businesses, financial security, retirement, and dignity and are forced to start life underwater in debt to the government for an education--and the oligarchs grow wealthy without labor.
they must be selectively interviewing AAPL fanatics who are all delirious over iphone-4.
Yes. It's really just a simple math equation:
Buying an iPad or iPhone 4 = confidence. Therefore, everyone is confident (or stupid).
Any questions?
I wonder how many meetings a week it would take to spin, and rig the media and the markets this well? I think its all planned out on a daily schedule handed out at the Bildeberg meeting. This kind of insanity must be planned out. You can't make this shit up on the fly? Can you?
The upside number is simply an artifact of how the survey is compiled: telephone.
Who has a land line these days? Not the unemployed.
And who has time to answer the ‘telemarketers’ 50 questions? Old farts and house wives.
So to there you have it. Survey confirms normally clueless people are just that.
Bagdad Bob, Minister of Information got a job with U of Mich.
Don't argue, just listen.
Faux-scientific measurements amounting to collection of cocktail party conversations and about as reliable.
End of quarter this coming Wednesday - get the market up to make the accounts look good and then...
DavidC